Gold Recovery Faces Strong Resistance Below $4,100Gold has bounced from below the $4,000 level, but the broader trend still favours sellers. The current move looks more like a relief rally, with the $4,080–4,100 area likely to become the next major resistance.
The macro backdrop remains supportive for the US Dollar, and unless gold breaks above resistance with strong momentum, rallies may continue to attract fresh selling.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,080 – $4,100
Stop Loss: $4,140
Take Profit 1: $3,980
Take Profit 2: $3,940 
Short
Bitcoin chart analysis JUNE 25Hello
It's a Bitcoin Guide.
My analysis is optimized for TradingView.
If you press the Replay button, you can check real-time movements.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
As you can see from the recent movements, the chart is moving very erratically and chaotically.
Therefore, until the end of this week, I will proceed only after confirming the exact points regarding:
1. whether it will rise immediately, and
2. whether it will hit the final support line.
A few things need to be verified.
I consider a rebound meaningful only if it breaks through the orange resistance line at the very least; otherwise, I will unconditionally wait at the bottom.
After much consideration, I have also implemented a very simple strategy.
*Based on the movement path of the red finger
Long Position Strategy
1) $58,032.3 Long Position Entry Zone / Stop Loss if broken below the light blue support line
2) $60,769.9 Long Position 1st Target ->
Target prices after tomorrow: $62,802.7, Top, Good in that order
- Since the MACD Dead Cross on the daily chart needs to be completed,
the rebound should not be strong today; this is a strategy to rise after a moderate rebound.
You may also utilize the middle wave of the pink finger.
The bottom zone is open to 56.8K at the very bottom due to the lower wick,
and if the rebound fails today, a continuous downtrend may follow starting tomorrow.
*This is an explanation of points 1 and 2 indicated above.
You just need to look for the rebound after the touch.
(Long Position Entry Zone)
- Zone 1: If the rebound is successful without breaking the purple parallel line support, it becomes a vertical upward zone.
- Zone 2: If the rebound is successful without breaking the green support line, it becomes a strong upward zone.
The target price above remains the same.
I judge a genuine rebound only when it breaks through the orange resistance line at a minimum,
and I determine that it is not a sideways market or a deceptive move.
Please use my analysis post merely as a reference and for practical application.
I hope you operate safely by adhering to trading principles and strictly using stop-loss orders.
Thank you. 
Long
Long 
Short 
Gold Demand Bounce Is LiveGold Demand Bounce Is Live: The Trade Is a Test of the Daily Supply, But the Previous Low Is the First Wall
The sweep paid. Gold printed its green candle off the weekly demand zone, and for the first time in this entire correction a timeframe has flipped bullish. The bounce flagged yesterday is now in motion, and the obvious target sits overhead at the daily supply. But one green candle is not conviction, and there is a wall standing in the way before any of that matters. Here is the read, leaning long but with eyes open.
THE FIRST CRACK IN THE BEAR
Yesterday's candle did the job. Price swept the lows into the 4,059 to 3,884 weekly demand, reacted, and closed green, the same liquidity grab and response that launched the move two weeks ago. The structure panel tells you it registered: the multi timeframe read has shifted from Full Bear to Bear lean, and the 1H has turned bullish. That is the first timeframe to break ranks with the downtrend, and it is exactly how a bottoming process starts, from the bottom up, one timeframe at a time.
So the demand zone is doing what a demand zone is supposed to do. Buyers showed up where they were supposed to. The setup is no longer a setup, it is a trade in progress.
WHY THIS IS NOT CONFIRMATION YET
Now the honest half, because this is early and it deserves respect. The daily candle is not convincing. Today is red, the bounce is hesitating, and price is running straight into resistance at the previous low near 4,060 to 4,097, the first supply overhead. One bullish timeframe against four still bearish, the 15m, 4H, 1D and 1W, is a foothold, not a victory. A green candle off demand can just as easily become a lower high if the first wall holds.
That first wall is the tell. The 4,060 to 4,097 band is the previous lower low turned resistance, and it is where price is stalling right now. Until the bounce reclaims and holds above it, this is buyers testing the door, not breaking through it. Watch that level for the first real proof the move has legs.
THE LINE THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING
Keep the big picture honest. This is still a counter trend bounce until the daily structure flips, and that takes one specific thing: a reclaim of 4,360, the top of the daily supply. Reclaim and hold above it and the daily sweep converts into a real reversal, the lower highs and lower lows finally break, and the conversation changes from bounce to trend. Short of that, every push higher is a rally inside a downtrend, tradable to the upside but not yet a turn. The target of the long is the same level that decides the trend, which is exactly why the reaction at the daily supply will tell you everything. Long 
GOLD BELOW 4000: OPPORTUNITY OR USD LIQUIDITY DRAIN?Gold remains trapped inside a strong bearish channel after weeks of persistent selling pressure. While price has started to stabilize and form a short-term consolidation, the broader market structure remains unchanged. The current pause appears to be a liquidity-building phase rather than evidence of a sustainable bottom.
Today's attention shifts toward the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, Final GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims. These releases are expected to generate short-term volatility, but unless they significantly weaken expectations for higher U.S. interest rates, they are unlikely to reverse the dominant bearish trend.
From a macro perspective, the market continues to favor the U.S. dollar. Sticky inflation, resilient economic data, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy continue to support USD strength. Despite gold already experiencing a deep correction, capital has yet to rotate back into safe-haven assets, suggesting investors still prefer dollar-denominated positions over defensive commodities.
Technically, gold remains inside a well-defined descending channel. The recent consolidation reflects slowing downside momentum rather than genuine accumulation. The first recovery zone is located around the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci confluence. If sellers successfully defend this resistance cluster, the broader bearish structure is likely to remain intact.
Failure to reclaim this resistance would reinforce the view that the current recovery is merely a corrective bounce before another leg lower toward the liquidity zones below 395x.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold continues consolidating ahead of today's major U.S. economic releases.
A recovery into the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci resistance remains the preferred selling opportunity.
As long as price fails to reclaim this resistance cluster, the market is expected to continue rotating toward 395x, with further downside potentially extending into the 390x region.
Only a decisive break above the current resistance structure would weaken the immediate bearish outlook.
MARKET VIEW
The market is not waiting for good news to buy gold—it is waiting for a reason to leave the U.S. dollar.
Until inflation expectations soften and the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, capital flows are likely to remain concentrated in USD. That keeps the broader macro backdrop unfavorable for gold, making corrective rallies opportunities to trade with the prevailing trend rather than signals of a confirmed bottom.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation within the broader downtrend.
Key Focus: Demand + Fibonacci resistance around 400x–404x.
US Session Theme: Core PCE, GDP and Jobless Claims could increase volatility, but USD remains the dominant macro driver.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
XAUUSD 1H Analysis: Bearish Structure
Gold remains under bearish pressure after sweeping buy-side liquidity near 4,378 and forming a strong rejection. The subsequent impulsive decline broke market structure around 4,220, confirming a bearish shift in order flow.
Price retraced into the 4,200–4,217 Fibonacci resistance zone (50%–61.8%) but failed to reclaim higher levels, reinforcing seller dominance. This area now acts as a bearish breaker block and remains the key zone to watch for continuation shorts.
The current structure is printing lower highs and lower lows, while price trades beneath the broken ascending trendline. As long as the market remains below 4,217, the path of least resistance favors further downside.
Key Levels
Major Resistance: 4,217 (0.618 Fib)
Secondary Resistance: 4,275–4,278 (Supply / Liquidity Zone)
Current Support: 4,155
Bearish Targets: 4,113 → 4,068
Bearish Outlook
A rejection from the 4,200–4,217 zone could trigger another leg lower toward 4,113, where sell-side liquidity rests beneath recent lows. A break below that level may expose the next demand zone around 4,068.
Invalidation
The bearish scenario weakens if buyers achieve a sustained hourly close above 4,217, with stronger bullish confirmation above 4,278.
Bias: Bearish 📉
Structure: Bearish BOS + Lower High Formation
Targets: 4,113 → 4,068
Invalidation: Above 4,217 / 4,278 Short 
Short
US GDP volatility — 4,040 FVG mitigation vs. 3,900 macro⚖️ Macro Backdrop: US GDP as the Ultimate Volume Catalyst
Gold markets enter a high-voltage consolidation phase hovering just under the 4,000 psychological barrier as global investors brace for the crucial U.S. GDP data release tonight. The persistent fundamental weight of elevated U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields and strong Dollar Index (DXY) traction continues to heavily cap bullion’s long-term recovery efforts. Institutional order flow is utilizing this pre-news quiet window to engineer strict liquidity traps. Tonight's macroeconomic release will serve as the volume trigger, but the primary smart money directive remains firmly locked into an aggressive premium distribution and markdown cycle.
📉 Technical Narrative: Imbalance Retest Within Aggressive Bearish Order Flow
The structural layout on the M30 chart showcases a textbook institutional distribution framework operating under a heavily dominant bearish trend:
1. Bearish Order Flow Control: XAUUSD maintains a clean structural markdown phase, verified by a definitive series of consecutive lower-timeframe Break of Structure (BOS) points down to the 3,994.630 floating zone.
2. The Premium FVG Ceiling (4,040 - 4,055 Area): Intraday price action is projected to deliver a quick pre-news corrective relief drive up into this unmitigated Fair Value Gap. This temporary bounce acts as a clean buy-side inducement designed to trap early retail breakout traders.
3. Liquidity Target Floor 1 (3,950 — 3,965 Area): Following the FVG premium mitigation, the pre-engineered black ziczac path maps a violent rejection down into this internal demand block to wash out weak long stops.
4. The Ultimate Destination Floor (3,890 — 3,905 Area): The ultimate magnet for this weekly cycle is the Major Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) Pool resting at the deep HTF discount demand zone below. Smart money requires a complete sweep of this floor to accumulate major long inventory.
🔄 IF-THEN Playbook (Execution Scenarios):
• IF price expands into the 4,040 Premium FVG Ceiling and prints a clear lower-timeframe structural failure (M1/M5 CHoCH Rejection) -> THEN trigger premium short positions targeting the 3,955 intermediate support and the 3,900 ultimate macro bottom.
• IF price invalidates this setup by printing a solid M30 candle close above the 4,060 level -> THEN the immediate bearish expansion path is paused, and we step aside to wait for the GDP data stabilization.
🎯 Trading Metrics Summary:
• Current Floating Price: 3,994.630
• Premium Re-entry Zone: 4,040.000 — 4,055.000 (Waiting for LTF CHoCH)
• Intermediate Take Profit: 3,955.000 Area
• Ultimate Macro Target Floor: 3,890.000 — 3,905.000 (Major SSL Pool)
• Structural Invalidation Point: Solid M30 close above 4,060.000
💡 Trader Question:
Are you attempting to scalp long this pre-news rally up to the 4,040 FVG ceiling, or are you sitting on your hands waiting to short the premium rejection post-GDP? Let me know your playbook in the comments below! Long 
Gold Pre-GDP & PCE Blueprint—Final markdown to $3,800Market Overview
• Macro Driver: The global financial market enters a state of extreme compression ahead of tonight's high-impact US macro data sequence, featuring the Q1 GDP Preliminary report and the critical Core PCE Price Index. With Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh maintaining a highly hawkish "higher-for-longer" baseline, any hot data print will act as a major catalyst to catapult the US Dollar Index (DXY) upward, severely suffocating non-yielding assets like Gold.
• Market Condition: Institutional order flow remains firmly net-bearish. Smart money is actively defending macro supply barriers and using localized internal relief bounces solely as liquidity-engineering traps to accumulate heavy premium short exposure.
Technical Context
• Structure: Mid-Term Bearish Expansion. The 2H timeframe demonstrates a textbook bearish markdown cycle, strictly governed by a dominant descending Trendline. Following consecutive structural breakdowns (BOS) and local Change of Character (CHoCH) shifts, price has successfully mitigated an internal Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $4,040 - $4,060 and is initiating the next impulsive leg down.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: The algorithm is currently drawing price magnetically down to sweep the major Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) pools resting at the $3,900 and $3,800 institutional demand targets. Retail buyers attempting to catch the falling knife are merely providing the necessary counter-liquidity for the next flush.
Key Zones
• Macro Trendline Resistance / FVG Floor: 4,040.000 - 4,060.000
• Immediate Pivot Price Level: 3,981.555
• Intermediate Support Target: 3,900.000 (Box Array)
• Ultimate Liquidity Pool: 3,800.000 (Major Demand Box)
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price delivers a choppy intraday correction to test the current local pivot or the FVG zone at 4,040 before the high-impact news AND validates lower-timeframe bearish displacement (M15 order block rejection) -> THEN execute Short positions targeting the first support box at 3,900, with an extended expansion target down to the macro floor at 3,800.
• IF price completely invalidates the descending trendline by securing a strong, decisive 2H candle close above 4,060 -> THEN the immediate bearish continuation narrative is temporarily paused, shifting the local bias into a deeper corrective distribution phase.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Corrective Bearish Bias. Trading against this heavy institutional markdown momentum is an uncalculated risk. Our mathematical edge heavily favors capitalizing on premium pullbacks or breakdown confirmations, targeting the massive unmitigated $3,800 liquidity pool as the ultimate target.
Are you shorting the pre-news consolidation toward $3,900, or do you think a dovish PCE surprise will trigger a massive short-squeeze above the trendline?
Drop your thoughts in the comments below! Like, Follow, and check out my Profile to lock into our real-time community tracking updates. XAUUSD — EMA Bearish Trend, Fibonacci Confluence Target in Focus
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the technical structure still favours sellers while recovery attempts remain weak below EMA resistance.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. This confirms that the short-term trend remains bearish, with the EMA structure acting as dynamic resistance above price.
Price is currently around 3,983 after a strong bearish continuation move. The market has already broken below the previous support area and is now moving toward the lower Fibonacci liquidity zones.
The key value sell zone is around 4,054 - 4,068. This area aligns with the Fibonacci retracement level, previous structure, and EMA resistance. If gold pulls back into this zone and fails to break higher, sellers may continue to defend the trend.
Below current price, the first important target is around 3,936 - 3,934, which aligns with the Fibonacci 1.618 area. If bearish momentum continues, the deeper target is the Fibonacci confluence zone around 3,810 - 3,804.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 3,983
Main sell value zone: 4,054 - 4,068
EMA resistance area: 4,054 - 4,099
Short-term invalidation: above 4,099
First Fibonacci target: 3,936 - 3,934
Deeper bearish target: 3,917
Fibonacci confluence target zone: 3,810 - 3,804
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,054 - 4,068
Stop Loss: 4,099
Take Profit 1: 3,936
Take Profit 2: 3,917
Take Profit 3: 3,810 - 3,804
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,054 - 4,068 Fibonacci and EMA value zone. This area is important because it aligns with the bearish EMA structure and the previous reaction zone.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA range.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 3,983, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 3,936 - 3,934, followed by 3,917 and the Fibonacci confluence target zone around 3,810 - 3,804.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 4,054 - 4,068.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell directly at the low without a pullback.
A break below 3,936 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,099, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the Fibonacci and EMA value zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 3,936, 3,917, and the Fibonacci confluence target around 3,810 - 3,804.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner retest of the EMA value zone first?
Short 
GOLD BELOW $4000: BIGGEST TRAP OF THE YEAR IN PROGRESS?🚨 GOLD BELOW $4000 — WHAT’S NEXT? FULL PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS 🚨
We have been witnessing very strong selling pressure in gold over the past several weeks. There is no doubt that panic selling has now started in the market. Many traders who were planning to go long on gold, and even those involved in physical gold investments, are now under stress because gold has corrected nearly 29% this year, which is a massive move.
But the most important question is: Why is gold selling off so aggressively? How long can this selling continue? And when can we start looking for long opportunities again?
Let's build a detailed probabilistic analysis to get a clearer picture.
At the beginning of this year, I mentioned that gold could enter a long consolidation phase, and that is exactly what we are seeing now. Along with consolidation, we are also witnessing a deep correction, which could actually be beneficial for the market in the long run.
For the past few years, gold had been in a strong uptrend. During that period, most traders were looking for selling opportunities while the market continued moving higher. This year, however, the situation completely reversed. Most traders became interested in buying every dip and holding gold for the long term.
As a result, the market repeatedly gave buyers hope and then liquidated them. In my opinion, there is no doubt that gold will eventually move higher in the future. However, based on the way gold has behaved this year, I do not believe a major bull run will begin anytime soon.
I think a meaningful upside move will only start once the hype around buying gold disappears and most traders lose interest. That future rally would likely represent a fresh beginning for gold. Right now, the market is focused on removing excess liquidity, and as a psychological trader, I believe the reasons behind this decline are largely psychological, as explained above.
This week, I was expecting some bullish pressure in gold, mainly because additional buyers entering the market would create more liquidity for the next leg lower. There was no doubt that $4000 was a very important level.
My expectation was that the market would allow buyers to enter above $4000, encouraging traders to place their stop losses below that level. Then, after sufficient liquidity had been created, we would see a breakdown below $4000 and a continuation lower.
That was my personal plan and observation.
If you study gold's behavior this year, you will notice a recurring pattern. After the major decline in January, the daily low formed around $4410. Later, on March 23, the market formed a low around $4100, after which buyers briefly stepped in and created liquidity. More recently, we saw a low around $4024.
Based on this repetitive behavior and market psychology, I expected the market to pause above $4024, attract additional buyers, and then form the next major low. It was a reasonable scenario. I never suggested that gold would rally directly from that zone because the market was already trading very close to the critical $4000 level, where many traders likely had stop losses positioned.
Eventually, those stops needed to be hunted.
However, selling pressure remained extremely strong, which resulted in continuous downside momentum, and gold is now trading below $4000.
So what is my next trading plan?
Earlier this week, I highlighted two key support levels: $4134 and $4084. As long as gold remained above those levels, I maintained a bullish bias. However, both of those important support zones have now been broken.
The plan is now very simple:
As long as gold fails to produce a daily close above $4084, I will not adopt a fully bullish bias. Instead, my focus will remain on identifying and trapping weak buyers.
If selling pressure continues, then the following downside targets become extremely important:
📉 $3945
📉 $3907
📉 $3876
📉 $3813
📉 $3768
These are the major levels on my radar.
If gold fails to reclaim and close above $4084, I believe these targets have a high probability of being reached.
At the same time, if you backtest the chart, you will notice that the $3876–$3907 area has historically shown buying pressure. Keeping that in mind, we could see a temporary buying move emerge from this zone.
However, I view that potential rally as another liquidity-generation move designed to attract buyers. A bounce is certainly possible because the market has been heavily bearish for several weeks, and traders naturally become optimistic after a prolonged decline.
Even then, my plan remains unchanged:
If gold cannot achieve a daily close above $4084, I will continue expecting selling pressure to dominate.
Today, gold is trading below $4000, which is a very important psychological level. Many traders are buying simply because they expect a breakout and daily close back above $4000.
But based on current chart behavior, I don't think the market will make things easy for buyers. Instead, I believe gold may continue drifting lower, trapping traders who are emotionally fighting the trend.
Personally, today is a no-trading day for me.
I prefer observing the market rather than taking positions because selling aggressively below such a major level carries its own risks. Around these key zones, market makers often focus on heavy liquidation and stop hunts, which can create extremely volatile conditions.
I hope this simple probabilistic market analysis helped you understand the current situation and gave you a logical perspective on what might happen next.
Good luck, trade safely, and have a profitable day.
What is your trading plan from here?
Let me know in the comments. 👇📊🔥
Gold Falls Below $4,000 as Bears Stay in ControlGold is now trading below the key psychological level of $4,000, suggesting that sellers still have the upper hand. Instead of chasing the downside, traders may look for a rebound toward the former support zone before considering fresh short positions.
The broader environment remains supportive for the US Dollar, with markets closely watching Fed policy expectations and upcoming US inflation data.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,000 – $4,030
Stop Loss: $4,060
Take Profit 1: $3,940
Take Profit 2: $3,920
As long as gold remains below $4,030, the short-term bias continues to favour sellers. Short 
Gold Faces Pressure as Markets Reprice Fed ExpectationsGold came under heavy selling pressure after investors reassessed the Federal Reserve outlook. While rates were left unchanged, the updated projections suggested that policymakers remain concerned about inflation, strengthening the US Dollar and supporting higher Treasury yields.
At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, adding another layer of pressure on precious metals.
From a market perspective, the recent bounce failed to attract enough follow-through buying, leaving sellers firmly in control below the key resistance area.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,250 – $4,300
Stop Loss: $4,350
Take Profit 1: $4,100
Take Profit 2: $4,050
Take Profit 3: $4,000
As long as gold remains below the $4,270–4,330 region, rallies may continue to be viewed as selling opportunities. Short 
XAUUSD: Elliott Wave Ending, ABC Buy Setup FormingGold is slowing down after a strong bearish sequence, and price is now consolidating around the lower support area near 3,960–3,985. From Kelly’s view, the main trend is still weak, but the current structure suggests that the bearish Elliott wave may be close to completion and an ABC corrective rebound could begin soon.
The key idea is simple: gold is still in a broader downtrend, so any buy setup should be treated as a short-term recovery trade, not a full trend reversal yet.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has completed a strong decline after breaking below the previous structure. Price is now reacting around the “done wave 5” area, which means sellers may be losing short-term momentum.
The market is currently moving sideways near the lower zone, showing signs of accumulation after the wave 5 decline. This does not mean buyers have full control yet, but it does suggest the downside pressure may be slowing.
The nearest resistance sits around 4,018. If gold can break and hold above this level, the short-term ABC recovery setup becomes much cleaner.
➤ Key levels
◌ 3,960–3,985: wave 5 completion and accumulation zone
◌ 4,018: nearest resistance and bullish confirmation level
◌ 4,052–4,060: first recovery target
◌ 4,090–4,120: Fibonacci resistance and possible wave C target
◌ 4,180–4,221: higher resistance if the ABC recovery expands
◌ Below 3,950: area where the buy setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may have completed the final bearish wave 5 near the lower accumulation zone. After a full 5-wave decline, the market often needs a corrective recovery before deciding the next larger direction.
The current structure may develop into an ABC rebound.
Wave A may start if price breaks above 4,018.
Wave B may retest the accumulation zone or hold a higher low.
Wave C may extend towards 4,090–4,120, where Fibonacci resistance and prior structure overlap.
This is why Kelly would not chase the buy too early. The best buy condition appears only when price can hold above the nearest resistance and confirm that buyers are stepping back in.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to break and hold above 4,018 before looking for the ABC recovery.
Entry zone: after bullish confirmation above 4,018
Stop loss: below the confirmed higher low or below 3,950
Take profit 1: 4,052–4,060
Take profit 2: 4,090–4,120
Take profit 3: 4,180–4,221 if wave C expands strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold fails to break 4,018 and loses 3,950, the accumulation setup weakens. In that case, the broader bearish trend may continue and the market will need a new base before any recovery structure becomes reliable again.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a short-term ABC buy setup inside a larger bearish market. The wave 5 decline may be close to completion, but confirmation is still important.
The cleanest buy setup comes when price breaks above the nearest resistance and holds there. Until then, the market is only accumulating, not reversing.
Gold may be preparing for a corrective rebound.
But because the main trend is still falling, buy positions should stay short-term and confirmation-based.
Share your view below. Long 
Long 
Short 
Short 
Long
Gold Swept Into Weekly DemandGold Swept Into Weekly Demand: The $300 Bounce Setup Is Back, But the Daily Has Not Confirmed Yet
All week the plan was the same one sentence: wait for the demand. Price is finally there. Gold has swept down into the weekly demand zone with the exact liquidity grab that launched a 300 dollar bounce off the June 11 low, and for the first time in this entire correction there is a long setup worth putting on the radar. But before anyone gets excited, there is one box the higher timeframe has not ticked, and it is the box that separates a bounce from a bottom.
Here is the read, both sides of it.
THE SETUP THAT JUST ARMED
Price has dropped into the weekly demand at 4,059 to 3,884 and is trading near 3,980, right in the heart of it. This is not a random level. It is the buy zone this whole correction has been pointing at, the area where the structural bid and the longer term trend that is still up would be expected to defend. And the way price arrived matters as much as the level itself. The four hour just printed a sweep, a liquidity grab below the prior low, the same pattern that formed on June 11 and preceded a fast move higher worth roughly 300 dollars. Same zone behavior, same sweep, same location. That is why the four hour is now showing the first signs of a reversal after weeks of one way selling.
When a market sweeps the lows into a higher timeframe demand zone and reacts, you stop pressing shorts and you start watching for the long. That is where we are this morning.
THE HURDLES THE BOUNCE HAS TO CLEAR
A setup is not a target, it is a trigger with a map above it. If this bounce is real, it has to climb a staircase of supply, and each step tells you whether it has legs.
The first hurdle is directly overhead at 4,060 to 4,097. This is the nearest supply, and it is the first proof of intent. A bounce that cannot reclaim and hold this band is just noise inside the demand zone. Clear it, and the next hurdle is 4,178 to 4,195, the second supply shelf and the level that would tell you the move has real participation behind it, not just short covering. Above that, the big one, the daily supply at 4,236 to 4,363, the same wall that rejected price last week.
THE CATCH NOBODY SHOULD IGNORE
Now the honest half. Every timeframe is still Full Bear. 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D and 1W all read bearish, and a sweep with a reaction on the four hour does not change that on its own. This is a counter trend setup until proven otherwise, which means it is the higher risk side of the trade, the one you size down for and define tightly.
So the path is laid out in order: react in demand, reclaim 4,060 to 4,097, push through 4,178 to 4,195, then face the wall. Trade the bounce against those levels, not against hope.And the daily has confirmed nothing. For the daily sweep to actually convert into a reversal, price needs to reclaim the 4,360 area, the top of that daily supply. Until that happens, the daily structure is still making lower highs and lower lows, and this is a bounce inside a downtrend, not a turn of the downtrend. The bounce can run all the way to the wall and still be a bounce. Only a reclaim above 4,360 flips the bigger picture Long 
Silver Squeeze: Breakout or Sharp Breakdown?Silver is moving inside a triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. XAGUSD is getting squeezed between resistance coming down from around 96 and support coming up from around 61. Right now, it’s trading near 73 to 74 , which is the middle of the range and not a good place to trade since there is no clear direction.
Recent price moves have been slow and messy, showing the market is still in a correction and not a strong trend.
From a wave view, this looks like a complex correction, and the triangle seems close to finishing. There could be one more move up, possibly a fake breakout, to trap buyers before price drops again.
Unless silver clearly breaks and holds above resistance, the overall view is still bearish. If the XAGUSD gets rejected from the upper area, it could fall toward 60 to 55 .
For now, expect choppy and confusing moves. It’s better to wait for confirmation instead of guessing early.
We will update further information soon! Long 
