XAU/USD - The Channel Strong UpwardGood day traders!
OANDA:XAUUSD is respecting its ascending H4 structure, with price holding above the Ichimoku Cloud after two clean breakout phases. The current drop from the recent highs looks more like a reset inside the trend than a confirmed reversal.
The area I care about is 4,520–4,600. If Gold trades back into this zone, stabilizes and buyers show up again, I still favor continuation toward:
🎯 Target: 4,800
Macro is mixed today. Gold has eased around 0.6% as traders reduce exposure ahead of the upcoming US PCE inflation data, but lower Treasury yields and ongoing concerns around US fiscal conditions continue to provide underlying support.
That’s why I’m not interested in chasing either side around 4,630. Let the pullback come to a meaningful location first.
A sustained H4 move below 4,520 would weaken this continuation setup and force a fresh look at the channel.
AURICVERSE View: strong trends don’t move vertically forever. The edge here is not chasing the high — it’s seeing whether buyers are still willing to defend 4,520–4,600. If they are, 4,800 stays in play.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below. 
Long
Gold Waiting for the U.S. Prelim GDP Data Release [26 Aug: Wed]Probable Scenario Analysis:
⏺ Present Scenario:
The primary trend of Gold is bullish. However, there are signs of bullish exhaustion. On 26th of August, 2026, there is a high-impact event: the U.S. Prelim GDP Data Release. Probably, Gold is sideways as it is waiting for the data.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
There is a strong resistance zone (SRZ) at (4700 - 4675). To enter a strong bullish continuation, the price must break out above the SRZ. Thus, if the price sustains above 4700, then stay bullish. The probable bullish targets above 4700 would be - 4725, 4750, and 4775.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
There is no bearish scenario yet. However, if the price decisively breaks down below 4600, then bearishness will emerge. Level 4600 is also crucial, as the weekly open price (4602.660) is near this level. Only a decisive breakdown below 4600 would trigger bearishness. The probable bearish targets below 4600 would be - 4575, 4550, and 4525. There is a strong support zone (SSZ) at (4525 - 4500). Probably, the price will receive support above the SSZ.
🟡 No Trading Zone: (4700 - 4600).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (4700 - 4500).
Here, 4600 is the median of the ROC. The median works like a trading session sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Events:
- 24 Aug (Mon): Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks (11:30 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact).
- 25 Aug (Tue): ADP Weekly Employment Change (05:45 PM, 🔵 Low Impact). HPI m/m (06:30 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). CB Consumer Confidence (07:30 PM, 🟠 Medium Impact).
- 26 Aug (Wed): Core PCE Price Index m/m, Prelim GDP q/q (06:00 PM IST, 🔴 High Impact). Crude Oil Inventories (08:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 27 Aug (Thu): Unemployment Claims (06:00 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact). Natural Gas Storage (08:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 28 Aug (Fri): Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks (07:30 PM IST, 🔴 High Impact).
● Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly Bias
Establish bias with respect to the opening price (of the particular session - Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly). If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading! GOLD: ACCUMULATION OR DISTRIBUTION?After a strong acceleration higher accompanied by extremely shallow pullbacks, gold is beginning to slow down as it approaches a supply zone on the higher time frames. Sellers have started to emerge. In particular, signals and policy expectations from the Fed have contributed to slowing the upward momentum. However, so far, the bullish structure remains intact.
On the lower time frames, gold is moving within a rather uncomfortable megaphone pattern, with continuous liquidity sweeps on both sides and frequent wick rejections. Therefore, my near-term view remains to trade within the range while waiting for the market to choose a clearer direction.
Resistance:
4.695–4.700 │ 4.720 │ 4.750 │ 4.780 │ 4.800
Support:
4.630 │ 4.605–4.600 │ 4.580 │ 4.560 │ 4.500
🎯 TRADING SCENARIOS
For now, I am watching gold fluctuate within the 4.605–4.695/4.700 range and remain especially cautious of liquidity sweeps on both sides.
Price at the lower end of the range → prioritize observing the reaction for potential buying opportunities.
Price moving toward the upper end of the range → prioritize observing the reaction for potential short-selling opportunities.
Once price breaks out clearly in either direction, I will prioritize trading in the direction of the breakout rather than continuing to trade within the range.
🧠 THE BIG QUESTION: ACCUMULATION OR DISTRIBUTION?
At present, there are two main scenarios.
Bullish scenario: This could be a reaccumulation range following the strong rally. If gold holds the 4.605–4.600 zone and breaks above 4.695–4.700, price could continue testing 4.720 → 4.750 → 4.780, and potentially move toward 4.800.
Bearish scenario: If this is a distribution phase and sellers begin to regain control, a break below the 4.600 zone could open the way for a deeper correction toward 4.580 → 4.560, and potentially further down to 4.500.
⚠️ CATALYSTS
The PCE and GDP data released during the U.S. session could become catalysts forcing gold to choose its next direction. PCE is one of the inflation measures that the Fed closely monitors when assessing monetary policy.
Personal view: Gold has not yet broken its bullish structure, so it is still too early to conclude that a reversal is underway. For now, I prefer trading within the 4.605–4.700 range: watching for buying opportunities at the lower end, looking for short-selling opportunities at the upper end, and following the breakout direction once price breaks out clearly.
The remaining question is: Is this merely a pause for gold to build momentum toward 4.800, or is the market quietly distributing before a deeper correction? XAUUSD DAILY MARKET READ - WEDNESDAY, 26 AUGUST 2026Gold is at 4,648, holding just under last week's 4,690 high. The buy-the-dip plan keeps working, price never gave much back and is grinding at the highs. Small red day, down 0.24 percent. And Core PCE lands today, so keep that in mind.
INTERMARKET
Macro is a clean tailwind again. The regime reads TAILWIND at a score of 80.8, and the driver split is back up to 76 percent bull, 18 neutral, only 6 percent bear. The dollar is down at 98.96, real yields are flat, miners are up, and gold in euro is up. VIX is soft at 15.5. The backdrop firmed back up overnight, and it is fully behind gold.
STRUCTURE
The daily is bullish, support sits at 4,334, and the old 4,129 resistance is now 11 percent below. The short term has healed. The 1 hour flipped back to bullish, so now only the 15 minute and the weekly lag. Four of the five timeframes lean up, the trend is intact.
4H WYCKOFF
Still Phase D trend and accumulation, with the last Sign Of Strength 39 bars back and volume light at 0.7 times. This is a calm hold at the highs, not distribution. Nearest demand is 4,469 to 4,489, then the daily block at 4,329 to 4,436.
VOLATILITY AND PACE
Vol is still low, and unlike yesterday's expansion day, today is back to a normal pace. Only about 44 points of the daily range are used so far, with roughly 56 points of room to a full 1x day. So there is room to move today, and the trigger is likely the PCE print this evening.
THE POSITIONING
One more piece. Bullish bets keep piling up. Call demand on the gold ETF is near 2.4 million contracts, the highest since February and more than triple the normal level, and it has kept climbing since the Yen intervention and the Treasury buyback. That is strong conviction, but a crowded trade, so expect sharp two way swings around the data.
BOTTOM LINE
The trend is up, the macro is a tailwind, and the dips keep paying. But price is parked under 4,690 into PCE, so do not force it here. Buy a dip into demand, or take the breakout once the data is out. Chase nothing into the release.
Favoured side: long, buy the dip or the confirmed breakout, not the middle.
Setup 1, buy the shallow dip. Long into 4,469 to 4,489. Stop below 4,436. Target 1 at 4,690, target 2 at 4,772.
Setup 2, the deeper dip. Long into 4,329 to 4,436, the daily demand and support. Stop below 4,300. Target 1 at 4,576, target 2 at 4,690.
Setup 3, the continuation. Long on a 1 hour close above 4,690 after the data. Stop below 4,620. Target 1 at 4,772, target 2 at the 5,010 weekly supply.
Invalidation. A daily close back below 4,329 breaks the near term structure and opens 4,213.
Let PCE set the tone, then buy the level it hands you.
Educational market analysis only, not financial advice. Long 
IF YOU’RE SELLING GOLD HERE, WATCH THIS FIRST!Wednesday Gold Market Analysis
So guys, the Asian session setup I shared with you for Wednesday has almost played out exactly as expected. After the upside momentum, we saw the downside momentum, and now the upside move we were expecting is clearly starting to appear in the market.
Right now, some people are confused about why Gold is moving higher. The most important thing to understand is that Tuesday’s high was formed around $4697, which is very close to the psychological round number of $4700. Because of this, some traders believe that Gold may fail to cross $4700 and could change its direction from here.
But if the market actually wanted to fall from this area, we would have seen a much sharper decline instead of strong recovery from above $4600. Whenever the market takes support around the weekly opening area and then moves strongly higher with good buying volume, it simply tells us that buyers are strong during that week and the overall market is not interested in moving lower.
The second important thing is the repeated selling traps we saw yesterday. Throughout the day, the market repeatedly gave sellers the impression that price was going lower. Many traders started selling the retracements, but they kept getting trapped as the market continued to recover.
We saw something similar today as well. When Gold made a high around $4673 during the Asian session and then reversed, many traders thought that the Fibonacci 0.786 level could trigger another fall. But I don't think that is the case. I believe the Wednesday high is likely to break soon, and once that happens, Gold can quickly move toward the $4676–$4681 area.
Once price reaches this zone, we may see some consolidation. Gold could even make a small move lower from there just to trap buyers. Remember, once the Wednesday high breaks, many traders will start buying randomly, so the market may create a small trap before continuing higher. At the same time, sellers who are holding positions with stops around $4700 or above Tuesday’s high could also get stopped out, creating additional upside momentum.
For today, our bias remains completely bullish as long as Gold is holding above $4663 and $4654. As long as these levels remain protected, our focus stays on the upside.
The key trigger is $4676. Once Gold gives us a strong 30-minute candle breakout above $4676, we can start chasing the upside toward $4700 and then $4729.
So the plan is very simple: as long as Gold remains above $4650, this bullish plan remains completely valid, and the primary focus should be on buying opportunities rather than looking for unnecessary sells.
You can also look at the 4-hour timeframe. Notice the Asian session selling candle, followed by the current 4-hour candle forming in a bullish and engulfing structure. This is another indication that buyers are showing strength and are not allowing sellers to take control.
The daily timeframe is also giving us a similar message. Sellers tried to push the market lower, but buyers were not interested in allowing that downside move to continue. That is why we are seeing the market gradually pushing higher.
If you look at Tuesday’s daily candle, you can also see a small green body. More importantly, Wednesday’s candle opened above the previous candle, which is another indication that bulls are maintaining control and are gradually pushing the market toward Tuesday’s high.
Overall, the plan is quite simple and logical. The market is showing repeated seller traps, strong recovery from lower levels, bullish higher-timeframe structure, and increasing pressure toward the key $4700 psychological level.
I hope you guys liked this psychological analysis and that it helps you understand why the market is behaving this way. Now I'm interested to know your view on Gold for Wednesday, so make sure to comment and let me know whether your bias is bullish or bearish. Thank you.
XAUUSD: Upcoming Pullback SessionXAUUSD is trading around $4,640; the H4 candle has dropped nearly 1% after the price approached the $4,680–$4,700 zone but failed to sustain its upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, Gold has extended significantly beyond the EMA34 and EMA89, and selling pressure is emerging near the highs. If the price continues to struggle in the $4,660–$4,700 range, I anticipate a pullback to the $4,420–$4,520 support zone, with the $4,480 level being particularly noteworthy.
This should be viewed as a technical pullback within a broader bullish trend, rather than a full bearish reversal. Short 
Gold Liquidity Sweep: Short 4,660 or Buy 4,570?
Market Overview
• Macro Driver: Spot Gold hovers near $4,651 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, pulling back from fresh highs around $4,696. Institutional capital is trimming long exposure to rebalance portfolios ahead of the high-stakes Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (Aug 27–29), where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a major policy address.
• Market Condition: Smart money is engineering a corrective distribution phase. The failure to sustain momentum above the 4,696.928 Weak High has catalyzed an aggressive sell-side displacement, breaking the multi-day ascending support trendline.
Technical Context
• Structure: Corrective Bearish Distribution. On the 1H timeframe, price swept buy-side liquidity above the 4,690 level, printing a Weak High at 4,696.928 before an impulsive bearish rejection broke below the Ascending Support Trendline.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: Price is currently printing a corrective relief bounce toward 4,650–4,660 to mitigate the trendline breakdown point. The algorithm is magnetically drawn toward the unmitigated Discount Demand / FVG Pool (4,560 – 4,580 blue box).
Key Zones
• Weak High / Liquidity Sweep Zone: 4,696.928 (Grey Supply Block)
• Immediate Market Price: 4,651.08
• Breakdown Retest Pivot: 4,655.00 – 4,665.00
• Primary Target / Discount Demand Box: 4,560.00 – 4,580.00
• Secondary Demand Floor: 4,520.00 – 4,540.00
• Macro Structural Floor (Strong Low): 4,324.24
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price completes the corrective bounce into the 4,655 – 4,665 trendline retest zone AND confirms lower-timeframe (M5/M15) bearish displacement -> THEN look to execute Short positions targeting 4,620 and expanding toward the 4,560 – 4,580 primary demand block.
• IF price invalidates the breakdown by reclaiming and closing an H1 candle above 4,697 -> THEN the corrective pullback narrative is canceled, reopening continuation toward 4,720+.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Corrective Bearish Retest. Buying the top after a clean liquidity sweep carries high downside risk; the statistical edge favors shorting internal relief bounces into deep discount demand arrays.
Are you shorting the trendline retest toward 4,570, or looking to buy the dip at lower demand Short 
XAUUSD: Bearish Reversal at 4,675 Resistance
Gold (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute chart is approaching a critical resistance/supply zone around 4,670–4,680 after a strong bullish move.
🔴 Bearish setup:
Price has pushed into the marked supply area and appears to be forming a potential liquidity sweep / SMT divergence near the highs. If buyers fail to break and hold above this zone, a downside reversal becomes likely.
Key levels:
🔴 Resistance / Supply: 4,670–4,680
🛑 Invalidation: Above 4,698
🎯 Target 1: 4,640
🎯 Target 2: 4,600
🎯 Target 3: 4,565
The 4,640 area is the first important downside level. A break below it could accelerate the move toward the sell-side liquidity around 4,595–4,600.
For the bearish scenario, the ideal confirmation would be a rejection from 4,670–4,680 followed by a break of the short-term rising structure.
Bias: 📉 Bearish below 4,680
Bullish invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 4,698.
Educational technical analysis, not financial advice. Short 
GOLD 25/08 – CORRECTION: TRADE REACTION | H1 SCALPINGGold remains in a bullish H1 structure, but price is currently undergoing a short-term correction after rejecting the 4,675–4,685 supply zone. For today, Emma's approach is simple: let price reach the key zones and wait for confirmation before entering.
🔴 KEY RESISTANCE
4,675–4,685 | SUPPLY ZONE
The nearest resistance where selling pressure has already appeared. If Gold retraces into this area and shows rejection + bearish CHoCH/BOS on M5/M15, look for a SELL scalp.
4,720–4,730 | MAJOR RESISTANCE
If price breaks and holds above 4,685, this becomes the next upside target. Avoid selling against a confirmed breakout.
🟢 KEY SUPPORT
4,600–4,610 | FIRST BUY ZONE
The first area to watch during the correction. If price reacts strongly and confirms a bullish structure on lower timeframes, look for a BUY with the main trend.
4,535–4,545 | MAJOR DEMAND ZONE
A deeper H1 demand area. If the correction extends, this becomes the key zone for a potential trend-following BUY after confirmation.
🎯 EMMA SCALPING PLAN
BUY SCENARIO
Gold pulls back into 4,600–4,610 → bullish reaction + M5/M15 confirmation → BUY.
🎯 Target 1: 4,675
🎯 Target 2: 4,720
If 4,600 breaks decisively, don't rush into a BUY. Wait for the deeper 4,535–4,545 demand zone.
SELL SCENARIO
Gold retraces into 4,675–4,685 → rejection + bearish confirmation → SELL scalp.
🎯 Target 1: 4,610
🎯 Target 2: 4,535
If 4,685 breaks and successfully retests as support, invalidate the SELL setup and look for BUY continuation.
EMMA'S RULE:
LET PRICE COME TO THE ZONE → WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION → TRADE THE REACTION. Long 
Short 
Why the Treasury's Bond Buyback Failed to Calm Bond Markets
On August 19, 2026, the US Treasury made a surprising announcement: it would more than double its bond-buying operations to between 2 and 4 billion dollars each, with a focus on long-dated debt. Interest rates fell sharply in response to the news, with the 10-year Treasury down over 5 basis points and the 30-year down 9 basis points, while stock futures jumped.
However, by the next day, most of the gains had been erased, with the 30-year yield climbing back towards its 19-year peak. This article will discuss what happened, why the market reacted so positively to the news at first, and what this episode says about the effectiveness of government interventions in a market as large and complicated as that of the bonds.
What the Treasury actually did
The US government routinely issues new debt to finance its operations, but it also conducts occasional buybacks of its own bonds, which are designed to provide liquidity to the bond market and allow the Treasury to intervene in specific points of the yield curve.
The Treasury announced on August 19 that it would be increasing the scale of its buybacks for bonds between 10-20 and 20-30 years, starting on September 9 and ending on November 4. This announcement came at a time when the national debt of the US was approaching 40 trillion dollars for the first time, and the 30-year yield was at 5.323%, its highest level since 2007.
Why the market reacted positively to the news
The market’s positive reaction to the news was entirely rational, as the intervention the Treasury was planning to make was undeniably helpful. An increase in demand for bonds, even if it is not directly stated as such, will always have a positive effect on their prices and hence lower their yields, at least in the short term. This is precisely what happened on Wednesday, when both the 10- and 30-year yields fell by several basis points within hours of the announcement.
Why the market erased most of the gains
However, by Thursday, most of these gains had been erased, with the 30-year yield climbing back to near its 19-year peak. By Friday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was nearly back to where it was before the announcement was made, having regained more than 5 basis points. Analysts have several reasons for believing that the positive reaction to the news was not justified.
First of all, they pointed out that the changes announced by the Treasury were not large enough to have a significant impact on the bond market. An increase in the scale of buybacks from 2 billion to 4 billion dollars, while significant, was not nearly as large as the 32 trillion dollars in bonds issued by the Treasury. According to one analyst from Jefferies, the intervention was too small to have a meaningful impact on the supply-demand dynamics of the bonds.
Furthermore, analysts pointed out that the buybacks essentially only address the symptoms of the yield increase, not the causes. Several strategists mentioned that the rising yields were the result of concerns about the size of the deficit and hence should have been addressed directly. Another analyst from JPMorgan noted that the market’s reaction to the news might have been counterproductive in the long run.
He stated that the market’s positive reaction to the news might have undermined the credibility of the Treasury’s commitment to a “steady and consistent” approach to managing the debt, as an unpredictable intervention of this sort creates a “higher risk premium” for bonds, which defeats the original purpose.
Another analyst noted that the buybacks can be seen as an informal attempt to intervene in the yield curve and limit its growth, which means that their effects should be interpreted with this in mind. The market takes such signals from the government seriously, and hence the yields did not fail to react to the news, despite the initial drop on Wednesday.
What lies ahead for bond yields
The increase in bond yields that started back in June was caused by several different factors, most of which are still present and contribute to the rise in yields. These include the concerns about the size of the deficit, the increase in the term premium, the shift in the composition of buyers of the bonds, and the increased issuance of corporate bonds backed by AI infrastructure.
Higher yields for longer-dated bonds are also felt outside the government debt, as the 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 6.75% around this time, which is a direct result of the same forces pushing the Treasury yields higher.
What to watch for
The most important development to watch for in the near future is the comments made by the Fed’s chairman, Kevin Warsh, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, as the market is waiting for any signals about the intentions of the central bank to intervene. Several analysts believe that the recent jump in yields has essentially been a test of the resolve of the Fed, and hence its reaction will shape the future movements of the yields.
It will also be important to watch for any changes the Treasury makes to its bond-buying operations, as such a significant reaction to a relatively small intervention suggests that the government is concerned about the size of the yield increases. If the Treasury continues to make similar announcements in the future, it will show that the interventions announced so far were not nearly enough to stabilize the market.
The level of the 30-year yield relative to its 19-year peak is also a helpful indicator to watch, as the market’s attempts to push the yields higher suggest that the forces driving them upwards are still present.
My final thoughts
For one day, it seemed as if the concerns about rising yields had been calmed and the market had reacted positively to the news. However, by the end of the week, the market made it clear that, for the time being, the long-term yields were on a path towards higher levels.
While the announcement made by the Treasury was helpful, it failed to address the larger concerns about the size of the deficit and the risks posed by the growing national debt. The market made it clear that an increase in the scale of buybacks from 2 billion to 4 billion dollars was not enough to stabilize the bond market and hence stop the rise in yields.
Thank You
@VertexQore 
Education
Long 
Sign of Bullish Exhaustion at 4650 [Analysis 25.08.2026: Tue] Probable Scenario Analysis:
⏺ Present Scenario:
Presently, Gold is in a bullish phase. The price made a high just below 4700 (during the Asian session) and crashed. Though the bullish trend is still intact, there are signs of bullish exhaustion. Level 4650 has been pivotal. The price has been affectionate to the level 4650 for a few days. Next, the price is running within an upward-rising parallel channel. However, the price is trading at the lower control limit (LCL) of the rising parallel channel. It is a sign of weakness. The price is in an indecision zone.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
There is a strong resistance zone (SRZ) at (4700 - 4675). To enter a strong bullish continuation, the price must break out above the SRZ. Thus, if the price sustains above 4700, then stay bullish. The probable bullish targets above 4700 would be - 4725, 4750, and 4775.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
There is no bearish scenario yet. However, if the price decisively breaks down below 4600, then bearishness will emerge. Level 4600 is also crucial, as the weekly open price (4602.660) is near this level. Only a decisive breakdown below 4600 would trigger bearishness. The probable bearish targets below 4600 would be - 4575, 4550, and 4525. There is a strong support zone (SSZ) at (4525 - 4500). Probably, the price will receive support above the SSZ.
🟡 No Trading Zone: (4700 - 4600).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (4700 - 4500).
Here, 4600 is the median of the ROC. The median works like a trading session sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Events:
- 24 Aug (Mon): Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks (11:30 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact).
- 25 Aug (Tue): ADP Weekly Employment Change (05:45 PM, 🔵 Low Impact). HPI m/m (06:30 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact). CB Consumer Confidence (07:30 PM, 🟠 Medium Impact).
- 26 Aug (Wed): Core PCE Price Index m/m, Prelim GDP q/q (06:00 PM IST, 🔴 High Impact). Crude Oil Inventories (08:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 27 Aug (Thu): Unemployment Claims (06:00 PM IST, 🟠 Medium Impact). Natural Gas Storage (08:00 PM IST, 🔵 Low Impact).
- 28 Aug (Fri): Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks (07:30 PM IST, 🔴 High Impact).
● Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly Bias
Establish bias with respect to the opening price (of the particular session - Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly). If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading! XAUUSD DAILY MARKET READ - TUESDAY, 25 AUGUST 2026Gold is at 4,641, holding near the highs. The buy-the-dip plan from the weekly read is working, price pushed from 4,603 up to 4,690 and is now easing back. It is a quiet red day, down 0.21 percent, just digesting a strong run.
INTERMARKET
Macro is still a tailwind. The regime reads TAILWIND at a score of 80.8, and the driver split is 64 percent bull, 30 percent neutral, only 6 percent bear. The dollar is down at 99.05, real yields are flat, miners are up, and gold in euro is up. Neutrals did rise to 30 percent, so it is a touch less one-sided than last week, but still firmly behind gold. VIX is soft at 15.8. The backdrop still favours gold, just with a little less fuel than a week ago.
STRUCTURE
The daily is bullish, support has climbed to 4,334, and the old 4,129 resistance is now 11 percent below. But look at the short term. The 4 hour and daily are still bullish, while the 15 minute and 1 hour have both flipped bearish, and the weekly is still bearish. So the swing trend is up, but the short term is pulling back, which is exactly what dip buyers want.
4H WYCKOFF
Still Phase D trend and accumulation, with the last Sign Of Strength now 33 bars back. The last 4 hour candle is red on slightly higher volume, so this is a normal pause after a push, not a top. Nearest demand is 4,469 to 4,489, then the daily block at 4,329 to 4,436.
VOLATILITY AND PACE
Here is today's key detail. Vol is in a low regime, but today is an EXPANSION DAY, the pace is 1.8 times normal and the projected range is 186 points. Price has already used most of its daily range, with only about 21 points left to a full 1x day. So the easy part of today's up move may be done. Chasing here is risky, let it pull back.
THE POSITIONING
One more piece. Bullish bets on gold are surging. Call demand on the gold ETF hit about 2.4 million contracts, the highest since February and more than triple the normal level. That is strong conviction, but it also means the trade is crowded, so expect bigger swings both ways.
THE FIB MAP
On the fib from the 3,941 low to the 5,602 high, price just cleared the 0.382 at 4,576. The next big resistance is the 0.5 at 4,772, which lines up almost exactly with the 4,766 to 4,798 supply. That 4,770 area is the real test on the way up.
BOTTOM LINE
The trend is up and the dips keep paying, but price is stretched today and short term momentum is cooling. Do not chase up here. Buy the pullback into demand, or wait for a clean push through 4,690.
Favoured side: long, buy the dip, not the extension.
Setup 1, buy the shallow dip. Long into 4,469 to 4,489. Stop below 4,436. Target 1 at 4,690, target 2 at 4,772.
Setup 2, the deeper dip. Long into 4,329 to 4,436, the daily demand and support. Stop below 4,300. Target 1 at 4,576, target 2 at 4,690.
Setup 3, the continuation. Long on a 1 hour close above 4,690. Stop below 4,620. Target 1 at 4,772, target 2 at the 5,010 weekly supply.
Invalidation. A daily close back below 4,329 breaks the near term structure and opens 4,213.
Let the highs cool off, then buy the level the pullback gives you.
Educational market analysis only, not financial advice. Long 
XAU/USD - Strong Wave, Bulls Target HigherHi traders, is this pullback the reset Gold needs before another leg higher?
OANDA:XAUUSD is still moving inside a strong H1 uptrend. After breaking out of the previous range, buyers pushed price aggressively higher and the structure continues to hold above the Ichimoku Cloud.
Rather than chasing around 4,620–4,650, I’m watching 4,550–4,600. If price pulls back into this area and buyers absorb the selling pressure, I still favor continuation toward:
🎯 Target: 4,760
The macro backdrop supports the bullish case. Gold reached its highest level since mid-May today as demand remained strong following the US Treasury’s liquidity-supporting bond buybacks, while renewed US-Iran tensions added another layer of safe-haven demand.
I wouldn’t chase another vertical candle here. A controlled reset into the buy zone gives the setup much better structure.
If H1 begins accepting price below 4,550, the continuation idea loses quality and the breakout should be reassessed.
AURICVERSE View: momentum is still clearly with buyers. The question isn’t whether Gold has already moved — it’s whether buyers are willing to defend the next pullback. If 4,550–4,600 holds, 4,760 stays on my radar.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below. Long 
XAU/USD - Strong Upward ContinueHi traders, would you chase OANDA:XAUUSD above 4,640 — or wait for the market to come back to you?
XAUUSD remains in a strong H2 uptrend. After the earlier consolidation, price broke higher with conviction and is still holding comfortably above the Ichimoku Cloud.
The move is healthy, but at current levels I’m more interested in the next pullback than another impulsive entry.
The zone I’m watching is 4,510–4,575. If Gold rotates back into this area and buyers defend it, the bullish structure remains intact and I would continue to look toward:
🎯 Target: 4,750
What stands out here is the rhythm of the move: impulse → consolidation → breakout → expansion. As long as the next correction stays controlled, there is no strong technical reason yet to fight the trend.
I would start questioning the setup if H2 begins accepting price below 4,510, especially if price also loses the Ichimoku support underneath.
AURICVERSE View: the trend is already clear. The better trade is not proving that Gold can rise — it is waiting to see whether buyers are willing to defend the next reset. If 4,510–4,575 holds, 4,750 remains the level on my radar.
How are you reading this structure? Share your view below. Long 
XAUUSD — Premium Liquidity Sweep Sell Setup
Market Context
Gold is trading around $4,649 after another strong bullish expansion and is now approaching premium territory. The H1 order flow remains bullish, but price is becoming increasingly extended inside the rising wedge, with external liquidity still resting near $4,705–$4,718.
The macro backdrop continues to support Gold through a weaker US dollar and concerns around US fiscal conditions following the Treasury’s expansion of long-dated bond buybacks. Geopolitical tension around Iran is also supporting safe-haven demand. However, upcoming US PCE data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks could create sharp volatility around the current premium levels.
SMC View
The recent bullish BOS confirms that buyers still control the broader H1 delivery. This makes an immediate sell around the current price premature despite price trading near premium.
The $4,705–$4,718 Premium Liquidity Objective is the main decision zone. A sweep of external buy-side liquidity followed by bearish displacement would signal that the bullish expansion is becoming exhausted and could open corrective delivery toward lower mitigation zones.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold extends into the $4,705–$4,718 Premium Liquidity Objective, sweeps the highs and forms a clear bearish rejection. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,705–$4,718 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above $4,720 and the sweep high
TP1: $4,656–$4,671
TP2: $4,560–$4,580
TP3: $4,488–$4,510
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,648.835
Premium expansion: $4,656–$4,671
Main sell zone: $4,705–$4,718
First mitigation POI: $4,560–$4,580
Main target: $4,488–$4,510
Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,718
Confirmation: BSL sweep with bearish MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The sell bias is corrective and depends on a confirmed liquidity sweep at $4,705–$4,718. The broader order flow remains bullish, so chasing shorts before price reaches premium offers weaker positioning.
If external BSL is swept and sellers confirm control, Gold could rotate toward the First Mitigation POI and potentially the deeper imbalance below. Sustained acceptance above the premium objective would weaken the sell setup.
No confirmation, no trade. Short 
XAUUSD: Strong breakout, Bulls continue rallyXAUUSD is trading around $4,653 following a strong breakout above the $4,440 neckline, maintaining a bullish structure above the EMA34 and EMA89.
Macroeconomic factors continue to favor the bulls. The USD is trading near multi-month lows following the US Treasury's decision to increase long-term bond purchases, while gold rose approximately 0.4% this morning. Geopolitical instability regarding Iran is also sustaining safe-haven demand.
From a technical perspective, following the rapid rally, I prefer to wait for a pullback to the $4,500–$4,560 range. If this area turns into support and buying pressure returns, XAUUSD could continue its ascent toward $4,720–$4,750.
The bullish scenario would weaken if the price decisively breaks below the $4,500 level. Long 
Long 
Soybeans — Multi-Year Base Approaching Breakout LevelSoybeans are approaching one of the more important technical levels on the weekly chart.
After the prolonged bear market, price appears to have developed a broad multi-year rounding base around the 950–1,050 region. The recovery has since produced higher lows and improving momentum.
More importantly, the recent structure resembles a smaller cup-and-handle / rounded continuation pattern immediately underneath the 1,247–1,250 resistance zone.
Technical setup:
Long-term basing structure appears increasingly mature.
Higher-low sequence developing.
1,247–1,250 remains the major breakout level.
Volume participation has improved during the recovery.
A decisive weekly close above 1,250 would materially strengthen the bullish structure.
Until then, this remains a setup approaching breakout — not a confirmed breakout.
view: I am watching 1,247–1,250 closely. A clean breakout followed by acceptance/retest would offer better confirmation than anticipating the move below resistance. 
Long
Long
GOLD WARNING! ONE MOVE COULD TRAP BOTH BUYERS AND SELLERS!So guys, the price structure we were expecting to see in the market played out on Monday. As mentioned in our weekly analysis, we were expecting Gold to continue with bullish consolidation, followed by a potential correction around the New York session. That is exactly what we saw today, and the overall price action is still following the structure we discussed.
The reason behind this correction is quite simple. Gold moved higher in a very choppy manner, while the market repeatedly took support around $4,628. This tells us that a significant amount of liquidity has been building around this area. Once the Asian session high around $4,660 was broken, a lot of fresh and random buyers entered the market, expecting immediate continuation toward the upside.
That move also created the perfect environment to trap those late buyers. At the same time, the selling pressure was enough to put psychological pressure on the buyers who had entered around $4,628. However, the important thing right now is that Gold is still recovering above $4,628, which means buyers have not completely lost control and the bullish expectation is still alive.
We are also seeing fresh buyers entering the market as we approach the closing period because many traders are still expecting Gold to continue higher. But personally, I believe Tuesday could begin with some upside momentum before the market starts showing another round of downside movement.
My expectation is that Gold could move around the $4,650 area first and then start moving lower. If that selling momentum develops, I expect the market to break below $4,627 and move toward our major support zone between $4,618 and $4,606. This is the area I will be watching very closely for the next potential buying opportunity.
If Gold reaches the $4,618–$4,606 zone and starts showing proper bullish consolidation or buying confirmation, then I would be interested in looking for a long opportunity from that area. If the setup confirms, our first major target will be Monday's high around $4,680.
Once $4,680 is taken out with strong momentum, we can potentially look toward the next target around $4,695. And if the bullish momentum becomes strong enough, Gold could eventually extend toward $4,719 as well.
However, the most important thing to remember is that we should not blindly buy just because price reaches the support zone. We need to see how Gold behaves around $4,618–$4,606. If buyers step in and the market starts consolidating positively from this area, that would give us a much better risk-to-reward opportunity.
Now, why do I still expect Gold to eventually move higher? The overall trend remains bullish, and the bulls are still relatively strong. What we are currently seeing can simply be viewed as a correction designed to trap the buyers who entered during the choppy upside move.
If the market continues showing selling pressure, many traders will start believing that Gold will fail to cross the $4,700 psychological level. That is exactly where we could see sellers becoming more confident and entering short positions. From a market psychology perspective, this could create another opportunity for the market to trap sellers, shake out weak buyers, collect liquidity, and then resume the broader bullish move.
So, this is my simple plan for Tuesday: I am expecting some initial upside movement, followed by potential downside toward the $4,618–$4,606 support zone. If we get proper buying confirmation from that area, I will be watching $4,680 first, followed by $4,695 and potentially $4,719 if momentum remains strong.
That is the plan I will be following for Tuesday. As always, remember that price action and confirmation are more important than simply predicting a direction. Let me know what your view on Gold is for Tuesday, and whether you are expecting continuation or another correction. Thank you.
