XAUUSD: Wave 5 decline nears trendline Buy ZoneGold is still trading inside a descending channel, and the current structure shows price continuing lower within wave 5. From Kelly’s view, sellers are still controlling the short-term movement, but the market is now moving closer to a potential exhaustion area near the lower trendline.
The key idea is simple: gold may still complete one more downside leg first, but the better opportunity may come after wave 5 finishes near the trendline support.
⟡ Market structure
Price remains below the descending channel resistance and has rejected from the short-term sell zone around 4,300–4,320. This keeps the immediate structure bearish and supports the idea that wave 5 is still in progress.
The chart also shows a lower trendline buy area around 4,220–4,240. If price continues falling into this zone and starts to slow down, that area may become important for a possible corrective rebound.
For now, gold is still weak, but the lower channel zone is where sellers may begin to lose momentum.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,300–4,320: short-term sell zone
◌ 4,340–4,350: stronger resistance and wave A sell zone
◌ 4,220–4,240: trendline buy zone and wave 5 completion area
◌ 4,423: higher recovery target if rebound develops
◌ Below 4,220: area where the buy setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final part of a bearish 5-wave move inside the descending channel.
The current decline can still be counted as wave 5, and the projected ending area is near the lower trendline around 4,220–4,240. If price reaches this zone and prints a clear reversal candle, it may suggest that wave 5 is complete.
After that, the market may attempt an A-B-C corrective recovery, with the first important upside reference near 4,300–4,350 and a wider recovery possibility towards 4,423.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to complete wave 5 near the lower trendline, then observe for bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,220–4,240 if a clear reversal candle appears
Stop loss: below 4,210 or below the confirmed reaction low
Take profit 1: 4,300
Take profit 2: 4,340–4,350
Take profit 3: 4,423 if the recovery expands
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,220 with strong momentum and fails to react, the wave 5 completion setup loses quality and the market may continue lower before forming a new base.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is not a place to chase the downside aggressively. The trend is still bearish, but price is moving closer to the lower trendline where wave 5 may complete.
The cleaner plan is to wait for price to reach the 4,220–4,240 zone, then watch whether buyers create a valid reversal candle.
Gold is still falling inside wave 5.
But if the lower trendline holds, the next meaningful move may be a corrective rebound.
Share your view below. 
Short
DON'T TRADE GOLD UNTIL YOU READ THIS ANALYSIS!So, the strong support zone that I shared yesterday worked exactly as expected, and Gold delivered a solid upside move from that area.
Yesterday's sharp decline created a lot of fear in the market. During the closing session, when Gold rejected from around $4092, many traders assumed it was just a retracement before another bearish continuation. As a result, a large number of sellers entered the market expecting further downside.
However, as I clearly mentioned yesterday, I believed this was nothing more than a trap. My overall bias remained bullish, and I planned to continue looking for buying opportunities.
At this point, the sellers who entered near yesterday's close are already under pressure. The interesting part is that Gold still hasn't managed to close above the important $4100 psychological level. This makes the current market structure even more attractive from a psychological perspective.
After the rejection from $4092, there's no doubt that the majority of retail sellers placed their stop losses just above $4100. Since the market has once again rejected from almost the same round-number area, even more sellers have likely entered fresh short positions with their stop losses sitting above $4100.
I believe the market may invite a few more sellers before making its real move. By the end of the day, I expect Gold to turn bullish, break above $4100, and extend toward the $4118-$4124 resistance zone.
Around $4118-$4124, we could see some temporary consolidation. However, once that range breaks, I expect a strong bullish expansion that pushes Gold higher and eventually closes above Wednesday's high.
So, this is my simple trading plan for Thursday.
Overall, I prefer looking for buying opportunities because this week the market has been forming a higher low structure, which suggests that buyers are gradually gaining control. At the same time, the recent sharp decline has attracted a large number of random sellers into the market, and I believe trapping those sellers is necessary before Gold can continue its next bullish leg.
I hope you enjoyed this psychological market analysis and that it helps you prepare for today's trading session.
Now I'd love to hear your opinion.
What is your view on Gold for Thursday? Let me know in the comments!
MASON XAUUSD – Intraday Bearish Bias Below Ichimoku
XAUUSD is trading around 4,057 after losing short-term bullish momentum. Price is now moving below the Ichimoku structure, while the recovery attempt is still weak and has not confirmed a bullish reversal.
The priority view for today remains sell with the short-term bearish structure, especially if gold retests the nearby sell zone and fails to break back above Ichimoku resistance.
Technical View
Gold is currently trading below the Ichimoku cloud and below the short-term resistance structure. This shows that buyers have lost control for now, and the market is still under bearish pressure in the intraday view.
The recent drop from the 4,130–4,140 area created a clear bearish impulse. After that, price only recovered weakly into the 4,060–4,075 zone, which is marked as the sell zone on the chart.
This sell zone is important because it sits near the Fibonacci reaction area and under the Ichimoku resistance. If price rejects from this area, it may confirm another lower high before continuing lower.
The 4,035–4,040 area is the first short-term liquidity reaction zone. If gold breaks below this level, selling pressure may continue toward the buy scalping liquidity area around 4,015–4,025.
The 3,984 level is also important because it is marked as a short-term price reaction zone. If bearish momentum remains strong, this area may become the next intraday target before price moves toward the deeper key support around 3,945–3,955.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,057
Sell zone: 4,060–4,075
Ichimoku resistance area: 4,130–4,147
Short-term liquidity: 4,035–4,040
Buy scalping liquidity: 4,015–4,025
Price reaction zone: 3,984
Key support zone: 3,945–3,955
Invalidation: above 4,095
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,060–4,075
Condition: wait for bearish rejection, failed recovery above the sell zone, or price staying below the Ichimoku structure.
SL: above 4,095
TP1: 4,035–4,040
TP2: 4,015–4,025
TP3: 3,984
Final target: 3,945–3,955
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,035 directly, wait for a retest of this level as resistance before looking for sell continuation toward 4,015 and 3,984.
Buy View
Buy is not the priority while price remains below the Ichimoku structure and under the sell zone. A short-term buy scalp may appear around 4,015–4,025 or 3,984, but it needs clear bullish confirmation first.
Final View
Overall, gold is still moving inside a short-term bearish structure. The cleaner plan is to wait for price to retest the 4,060–4,075 sell zone and watch for rejection. As long as gold stays below Ichimoku and below 4,095, the downside path toward 4,035, 4,015, and 3,984 remains in focus.
Will gold reject from the sell zone again, or break above Ichimoku to weaken the intraday bearish view?
Short 
Short
BEFORE YOU SELL GOLD... READ THIS FIRST!THE PSYCHOLOGICAL GOLD ANALYSIS – WEDNESDAY
At the beginning of this week, after Gold broke above $4200, we were expecting a downside move on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yesterday, I clearly mentioned that a breakdown below $4100 was highly likely and that the market could extend toward $4085. Today, we finally witnessed exactly that.
The psychology behind this expectation was actually very simple.
Last Wednesday, Gold produced a strong bullish rally and formed a clear higher low – higher high market structure. As soon as the market opened this week, most traders became convinced that Gold would simply continue moving higher. But Gold rarely rewards the obvious.
In my weekly analysis, I explained that before any major bullish continuation, the market first needed to trap the overly confident buyers. The best way to achieve that was by breaking an important higher low so buyers would lose confidence and begin questioning the bullish trend. That is exactly what happened today, making this move a perfect part of our original plan.
Now the bigger question is... what comes next?
I believe something very interesting—and potentially very big—could happen in Gold over the next few hours.
Personally, I believe $4200 has become the most important level of this week. After failing there, a large number of traders have now turned bearish by looking only at the overall trend. Every pullback throughout this week has attracted fresh sellers because the market has been forming a clear lower high structure.
Today's aggressive breakdown below $4100 only strengthened that bearish sentiment. No doubt many buyers were wiped out, but I also believe that a large number of traders panic-sold near the lows after seeing such strong selling pressure.
This is exactly why I am choosing to ignore traditional price action for now and instead focus on market psychology.
I believe the next move could be a manipulation move that very few traders are expecting—a sharp bullish reversal followed by a continuation toward the upside.
Why?
Because so many traders have now jumped into short positions. From a psychological perspective, trapping those sellers now makes much more sense.
I believe Gold could suddenly rally higher while short-term traders—especially those trading the 1-minute to 5-minute timeframes—continue selling every small bearish candle, expecting another pullback because of this week's strong bearish structure. That could become the market maker's biggest trap.
If this scenario plays out, we could see a strong upside move over the next few hours, and by the end of this week, even a breakout above $4200 becomes a realistic possibility.
As long as Gold continues trading above the green support zones marked on my chart, I will continue looking to trap sellers on every pullback until $4200 is finally broken.
That is my simple and clear psychological trading plan for Wednesday.
I hope this analysis helped you understand not only what the market is doing, but more importantly, why it may be doing it.
Good luck, and trade safely.
By the way, what's your view on Gold? Let me know in the comments—I would love to hear your perspective.
XAUUSD — Waiting Sell From EMA Value Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, the market is still moving with short-term bearish pressure, so any recovery should be treated as a pullback unless price can reclaim the upper resistance zone.
The better plan is to wait for price to return to a clear sell value zone instead of chasing the move after a strong drop.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,053 after reacting strongly from the 0.382 Fibonacci area near 4,041. This reaction shows that buyers are trying to defend the short-term support, but the overall structure is still not bullish yet.
Price remains inside a descending channel, and the EMA structure is still acting as dynamic resistance above the current price. The recent bounce looks more like a corrective recovery inside a bearish trend rather than a full reversal.
The main sell zone is around 4,094 - 4,101. This area aligns with the previous support turned resistance, Fibonacci reaction zone, descending trendline pressure, and EMA value area. If price recovers into this zone and rejects, sellers may continue to push gold lower.
The downside target remains around 4,003 first, followed by the psychological Fibonacci target zone near 3,990 - 3,988.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,053
Fibonacci reaction support: 4,041
Main sell zone: 4,094 - 4,101
Upper resistance: 4,135
Short-term downside level: 4,003
Main Fibonacci target: 3,990 - 3,988
Invalidation area: above 4,135
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,094 - 4,101
Stop Loss: 4,135
Take Profit 1: 4,041
Take Profit 2: 4,003
Take Profit 3: 3,990 - 3,988
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,094 - 4,101 sell zone. This is the key value area because it combines Fibonacci structure, EMA resistance, and the descending channel reaction zone.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this area, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below 4,101.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 4,041, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 4,003, followed by the Fibonacci psychological target around 3,990 - 3,988.
Alternative Buy Scenario
Entry: above 4,135 after breakout confirmation
Stop Loss: 4,101
Take Profit 1: 4,160
Take Profit 2: 4,180
Take Profit 3: 4,200
Buy Condition
This is not the main view. A buy setup should only be considered if gold breaks above 4,135 and holds above the descending structure with strong confirmation.
If price cannot break and hold above 4,135, the bearish setup remains the priority.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 4,094 - 4,101.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell aggressively at the low without a pullback.
A break below 4,041 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,135, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below the EMA resistance structure and inside the descending channel. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into 4,094 - 4,101, then look for sell confirmation toward 4,041, 4,003, and 3,990 - 3,988.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the EMA value zone first?
Short 
Geopolitical pressure rises. Can FOMC rescue gold?Despite escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, gold remains under renewed selling pressure instead of extending last week's recovery. Unlike previous periods when geopolitical risks directly fueled safe-haven demand, the market is now focusing on their broader macroeconomic consequences. Rising oil prices increase inflation expectations, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to keep interest rates higher for longer. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar continue to attract capital flows, limiting gold's ability to sustain a meaningful recovery.
However, from a broader macro perspective, the underlying narrative remains unchanged. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, inflation pressures have not fully disappeared, and the Federal Reserve has yet to signal a meaningful shift toward a dovish stance. While last week's weaker Dollar supported a sharp rebound in gold, the move still appears corrective rather than the beginning of a sustainable bullish trend.
Technically, price is now approaching the Supply + Rising Trendline + Fibonacci confluence, which represents the final defensive zone for buyers. This area will determine whether the recent recovery can evolve into a larger reversal or simply become another liquidity-driven rally within the broader bearish structure.
On the other hand, if sellers successfully break below this support cluster, the current bearish trend is likely to accelerate toward lower liquidity zones. Conversely, only a decisive breakout above the 42xx resistance region would invalidate the current bearish bias and confirm that a larger structural recovery is underway.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold is testing the Supply + Rising Trendline + Fibonacci confluence, the final support zone before the broader bearish trend resumes.
If buyers defend this area, a short-term technical rebound toward higher resistance remains possible. However, a confirmed breakdown would reinforce the dominant bearish structure and expose lower liquidity levels.
The upcoming FOMC Minutes will likely become the next major catalyst for volatility.
MARKET VIEW
The market's focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to their impact on inflation, Federal Reserve expectations, and the U.S. Dollar. As long as higher oil prices continue supporting inflation concerns and the Fed maintains a cautious stance, the broader macro environment still favors the Dollar over gold.
Current Bias: Bearish unless gold decisively breaks above the 42xx resistance.
Key Focus: Supply + Rising Trendline + Fibonacci support, followed by the FOMC Minutes.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
XAUUSD: Bearish Trendline Continues to Cap RecoveryFollowing a rebound in early July, XAUUSD is showing signs of weakness, repeatedly failing to break above the bearish trendline extending from mid-June. The $4,140–$4,150 zone remains a key resistance area where selling pressure has repeatedly halted bullish recovery attempts.
Fundamentals also favor the sellers. The US dollar remains strong as the market awaits the FOMC minutes, while elevated US bond yields diminish gold's appeal. Consequently, current rebounds appear primarily technical in nature rather than signaling the start of a new uptrend.
On the H4 chart, the price remains below the bearish trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating that the prevailing trend remains unchanged. If XAUUSD faces continued rejection around the $4,147 level, selling pressure is likely to intensify, paving the way for a decline toward the $3,959 support zone.
Entry: Sell upon signs of rejection around $4,140–$4,147.
TP: $3,959.
SL: Above $4,175. Short 
Long 
Long 
Short
GOLD MUST BREAK 42XX TO CONFIRM A LONG-TERM BULLISH TRENDGold continues to trade within a recovery phase after last week's sharp rally, but the broader macro picture has not changed enough to support a sustainable bullish reversal. The recent rebound has been driven mainly by weaker U.S. Dollar sentiment and expectations that the Federal Reserve could become less aggressive later this year. However, the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient, inflation risks have not completely disappeared, and the Fed continues to emphasize a data-dependent approach.
As a result, while the market has temporarily reduced demand for the U.S. Dollar, investors are still cautious about pricing in an aggressive easing cycle. Until stronger macro catalysts emerge, gold is likely to struggle to establish a new long-term uptrend.
Technically, gold is reacting below the major Trendline + FVG + Demand resistance cluster after failing to secure a decisive breakout. The recent rejection suggests that buyers are losing momentum as price approaches higher-timeframe supply. As long as this resistance remains intact, the current recovery should still be viewed as a corrective move within the broader bearish structure.
The first downside objective is the 41xx Supply + Fibonacci confluence. A confirmed break below this support could expose deeper liquidity around the 40xx region. On the other hand, only a clean breakout above the trendline resistance would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the door for a stronger recovery.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold remains in a corrective recovery within a broader downtrend.
Selling pressure is expected to return if price continues to reject the Trendline + Demand + FVG resistance cluster.
Failure to break this resistance would reinforce the bearish structure and increase the probability of another move toward lower liquidity zones.
MARKET VIEW
Despite last week's strong recovery, macro fundamentals still favor a cautious outlook for gold. The market continues to watch incoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve expectations, which remain the primary drivers of medium-term direction. Unless buyers reclaim the major resistance zone with conviction, the preferred strategy remains selling into strength rather than chasing the current rally.
Current Bias: Recovery within a broader bearish trend.
Key Focus: Trendline + FVG + Demand resistance around 41xx-42xx.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
XAUUSD – Gold Corrects Into Fibonacci And Ichimoku Support
XAUUSD is trading around 4,129 after pulling back from the recent high area near 4,190–4,200. The short-term bullish structure is still valid, but price is now correcting into an important Fibonacci and Ichimoku support area.
The priority view remains buy on pullback, as long as gold holds above the key Fibonacci zones and does not break below the rising structure.
Technical View
Gold has created a strong recovery from the previous strong support zone around 3,960. The market moved higher and formed a clear bullish leg, showing that buyers were in control during the recent move.
However, price is now correcting after reaching the upper resistance and descending trendline area near 4,190–4,200. This pullback is normal after a strong bullish move, but the key question is whether buyers can defend the Fibonacci support zones.
The current area around 4,128–4,136 is acting as a short-term reaction zone. Price is testing this area after the pullback, but a clean bullish continuation still needs stronger confirmation.
The first important buy zone is 4,102–4,106. This zone aligns with the Fibonacci 0.618 area and also sits close to the Ichimoku support structure. If gold pulls back here and forms bullish rejection, it may confirm a higher low before the next upside move.
The deeper buy zone is 4,071–4,075, near the Fibonacci 0.5 area. If the first buy zone fails, this lower zone becomes the next area to watch for a stronger reaction.
Ichimoku still supports the recovery structure as long as price holds above the main cloud support and does not close deeply below the lower support zone. A clean break below 4,071 would weaken the bullish view and may open a deeper correction.
The upside target remains around 4,190–4,200, where the descending trendline and recent resistance are located. If gold breaks above this zone, the bullish structure may extend further.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,129
Short-term reaction zone: 4,128–4,136
Buy order zone 1: 4,102–4,106
Buy order zone 2: 4,071–4,075
Ichimoku support area: 4,115–4,166
Upper resistance: 4,190–4,200
Major trendline resistance: around 4,200
Invalidation: below 4,071
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,102–4,106
Condition: wait for bullish rejection, higher low formation, or price holding above the Fibonacci 0.618 zone and Ichimoku support.
SL: below 4,071
TP1: 4,136
TP2: 4,166
TP3: 4,190–4,200
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,102–4,106, wait for the deeper buy zone at 4,071–4,075. A bullish reaction from this area may still support continuation, but confirmation must be clearer.
Sell View
Sell is not the priority while price remains above the Fibonacci support zones and the rising structure. A sell setup only becomes safer if gold breaks below 4,071 and fails to recover back above the Ichimoku support area.
Final View
Overall, gold is correcting after a strong bullish move, but the main structure is not broken yet. The cleaner plan is to wait for price to test the Fibonacci and Ichimoku support zones around 4,102–4,106 or 4,071–4,075. If buyers defend these areas, gold may continue toward 4,166 and 4,190–4,200.
Will gold hold the Fibonacci support zone and continue higher, or break lower into a deeper correction first?
Short 
IF YOU TRADE GOLD, THIS IS THE ONLY ANALYSIS YOU NEED TODAYAs expected, Gold gave us the breakout and reversal around the $4200 area on Monday. Although I was personally expecting the reversal to start slightly higher, somewhere around the $4218 region, Gold only managed to make a slight breakout above $4200 before immediately showing strong selling pressure. Overall, this is a positive sign because in my weekly market analysis I clearly mentioned that I was expecting selling pressure to begin from Tuesday. The main objective was to bring fresh sellers into the market so that they could eventually become fuel for the next move.
Right now, that's exactly what we're seeing. The rejection from the $4200 area has encouraged many traders to enter short positions, with most of them likely placing their stop losses above $4200. At the same time, this zone also looked attractive for sellers because the market had previously shown heavy selling from this exact region on June 23. Naturally, many traders attempted to repeat the same setup, and this is exactly the type of positioning that can later be trapped if the market decides to reverse higher.
However, based on the current price action, I don't think Gold is ready to reverse immediately. In my opinion, the market should first move towards the $4108-$4087 area before giving us a meaningful reversal. In fact, if Gold manages to break below $4109 or even $4100, that would be even better from a bullish perspective. One reason is that last Thursday, during the market close, Gold respected the $4100 level perfectly by taking a retracement from there. This was something I had already noted in advance.
After last Wednesday's strong bullish rally, the market has continued making higher highs, which has naturally increased bullish expectations among many early buyers. But in my opinion, if the market starts breaking previous higher highs to the downside, many traders could lose their bullish bias. That emotional shift could easily create the perfect environment for a sharp reversal over the next several hours.
Overall, my view remains exactly the same as I shared at the beginning of this week. I remain bullish on Gold as long as price stays above $4087. The current selling pressure is also a part of my overall market analysis because we actually need fresh sellers to enter the market. Their positions can later provide the fuel required for the next bullish expansion.
For Tuesday, my trading plan is very simple. Since we have already seen decent selling during the Asian session, I would prefer looking for fresh selling opportunities if the market shows a rejection around the $4144 area. My targets on the downside would be $4121 and $4109. If momentum remains strong, we could also see a breakdown below $4100. Once my selling targets are achieved, I plan to close all my short positions and patiently wait for the bullish reversal setup for a much bigger upside target.
I hope you enjoyed today's market analysis. I wish everyone the very best for Tuesday's trading session. Trade with patience, follow your plan, manage your risk properly, and book your profits wisely.
Good luck, everyone!
By the way, what's your trading plan for Tuesday? Let me know in the comments—I would love to hear your view.
Short 
Short 
JULY OUTLOOK: WILL GOLD RISE OR FALL?Gold begins the new month under persistent bearish pressure, with price continuing to respect the long-term descending trendline that has capped every meaningful recovery over recent weeks.
From a macro perspective, the broader outlook remains unchanged. Capital continues to favor the U.S. Dollar as markets increasingly price in a prolonged hawkish Federal Reserve. While inflation has moderated from previous highs, it remains elevated enough to keep policymakers cautious. With July's Nonfarm Payrolls approaching and expectations for another firm Fed stance still on the table, investors remain reluctant to rotate aggressively back into gold.
Although short-term rebounds may occur as sellers take profits and liquidity builds around key support levels, these moves currently appear corrective rather than the beginning of a new bullish cycle. Unless macro conditions shift meaningfully, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling interest rather than sustained buying.
Technically, gold continues to trade within its established bearish structure. Price is reacting around the lower boundary of the descending trendline, but the overall market structure remains intact. The first recovery zone is located around the 40xx Demand + Fibonacci resistance cluster. As long as this area holds, the preferred scenario remains selling into strength, targeting a continuation toward the 38xx liquidity zone.
If buyers fail to reclaim the major resistance cluster, a confirmed breakdown below current support could accelerate the next bearish leg and expose deeper downside liquidity before any meaningful long-term base can develop.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold remains under bearish control despite entering a new month.
Any recovery toward the 40xx Demand + Fibonacci resistance is viewed as an opportunity for sellers to re-enter the market.
Failure to reclaim the descending trendline would reinforce the broader downtrend and keep the focus on the 38xx liquidity region.
MARKET VIEW
The new month does not change the macro landscape. The U.S. Dollar continues to dominate capital flows while expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and July's economic data maintain downside pressure on gold. Until the macro narrative weakens, rallies should be treated as corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than confirmation of a lasting reversal.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation.
Key Focus: Sell rallies into the 40xx resistance cluster while monitoring the 38xx liquidity zone.
US Session Theme: Strong USD, Fed expectations, and month-opening positioning continue to favor downside pressure on gold.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
TRENDLINE IS HOLDING THE GOLD STANDARD, WILL NONFARM BREAK IT?Today's session is likely to determine whether gold's recent recovery has enough momentum to develop into a larger corrective rally or whether it will become another liquidity sweep before the broader downtrend resumes. The focus is no longer on technicals alone, but on the U.S. labor market data, with Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and Jobless Claims all scheduled for release.
From a macro perspective, the market currently leans slightly in favor of gold as the U.S. Dollar has weakened over recent sessions. However, that sentiment remains fragile. If today's labor data surprises to the upside, expectations for a restrictive Federal Reserve could strengthen again, pushing Treasury yields and the Dollar higher while putting renewed pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker employment figures would reinforce the recent USD weakness and provide the catalyst needed for gold to challenge higher resistance.
Technically, gold has recovered sharply from the recent lows and is now consolidating directly beneath the descending trendline that has defined the bearish structure since June. This trendline is the key battlefield. A confirmed breakout would likely trigger another wave of short covering toward the 410x-418x Demand + FVG resistance cluster. Until that breakout occurs, the recovery should still be viewed as corrective within a broader bearish trend.
Failure to break above the trendline after today's data would suggest buyers are running out of momentum. In that scenario, sellers could quickly regain control, driving price back toward the recent supply zones and potentially extending the broader bearish structure.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold remains in consolidation ahead of today's major U.S. labor market data.
A weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report could support further upside toward the 410x-418x Demand + FVG resistance.
A stronger labor report would likely strengthen the USD, reject price from the descending trendline, and keep the broader bearish trend intact.
MARKET VIEW
Today's macro data is likely to decide whether this recovery becomes a genuine breakout or simply another liquidity grab. Until gold can reclaim the descending trendline, the higher-timeframe bearish structure remains unchanged, and rallies should continue to be treated cautiously.
Current Bias: Neutral before news — Bearish unless trendline resistance is broken.
Key Focus: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and the descending trendline around current resistance.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
XAUUSD — EMA Uptrend Holds, Buy From Value Zone
Fundamental Analysis
Gold is holding a stronger recovery structure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the technical structure remains constructive while price holds above the rising EMA support zone.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,155 after a strong bullish recovery from the lower structure. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 are starting to turn upward, showing that buyers are gaining control of the short-term trend.
Price is currently testing the EMA 34 area, which is also close to the Fibonacci and trendline value zone. This is an important area because a bullish reaction here may confirm that the market is preparing for another continuation move.
The key buy zone is around 4,136 - 4,152. This zone aligns with EMA 34, Fibonacci support, and the rising trendline structure.
If buyers defend this area, gold may continue toward the previous high around 4,202, then 4,221. A stronger breakout may open the way toward the Fibonacci extension target around 4,312.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,155
Main buy zone: 4,136 - 4,152
EMA 34 reaction area: around 4,152
EMA support area: 4,107 - 4,136
Short-term resistance: 4,202
Breakout resistance: 4,221
Main upside target: 4,281 - 4,312
Invalidation area: below 4,101
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Scenario
Entry: 4,136 - 4,152
Stop Loss: 4,101
Take Profit 1: 4,202
Take Profit 2: 4,221
Take Profit 3: 4,281 - 4,312
Buy Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to hold the 4,136 - 4,152 buy zone. This area is important because price is testing EMA 34 while still holding above the rising EMA structure.
A buy setup becomes more valid if price forms bullish rejection from this zone, such as a long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, higher low formation, or a clean reclaim above 4,160.
If price holds above the buy zone and breaks 4,202, the bullish continuation view becomes stronger. The next upside targets would be 4,221, then 4,281 - 4,312.
Alternative Sell Scenario
Entry: below 4,101 after breakdown confirmation
Stop Loss: 4,136
Take Profit 1: 4,079
Take Profit 2: 4,040
Take Profit 3: 4,020
Sell Condition
This is not the main view. A sell setup should only be considered if gold breaks below 4,101 and fails to reclaim the EMA support structure.
If price loses the rising trendline and closes below the EMA value zone, the bullish setup becomes weaker and gold may retest lower liquidity areas.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to react around 4,136 - 4,152.
Look for bullish confirmation before entering buy.
Do not chase price if it moves directly into resistance.
A break above 4,202 confirms stronger bullish momentum.
If price breaks and holds below 4,101, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bullish while XAUUSD holds above the rising EMA structure. Price is now testing EMA 34, so the preferred plan is to wait for a clean reaction from 4,136 - 4,152 before looking for continuation toward 4,202, 4,221, and 4,281 - 4,312.
Do you share the same bullish view on gold, or are you waiting for a stronger confirmation above 4,202?
Long 
XAUUSD: Buyers await a retest before extending toward 4,250XAUUSD is undergoing a minor correction following a strong rebound from its early-July lows. Notably, the price remains above the dashed uptrend line and has not broken the current recovery structure.
The 4,124–4,130 zone on the chart is acting as a key support level. If the price pulls back to this area and shows a clear bullish reaction, it would serve as a strong trigger for a continued upward move. The immediate target is 4,250, aligning with the green resistance zone above.
Entry Focus: Wait for a pullback to the 4,124–4,130 range followed by a bullish confirmation candle.
Invalidation: A drop below 4,100 would weaken the bullish scenario. Long 
Gold Stalled Exactly Where It Should HaveGold Stalled Exactly Where It Should Have: It Is Struggling at the Supply, and the Retest Is the Trade to Watch
The rally did its job and then hit its ceiling, right on schedule. Gold ran off the NFP break, pushed into the 4,178 to 4,195 supply, tagged it, and is now struggling there, trading around 4,164 and failing to push cleanly through into the new week. This is not a surprise, it is the exact stall the last read called for. A vertical move into fresh resistance was always going to run out of steam here. Price is not yet in a confirmed pullback, it is being rejected at the zone and grinding, which is the phase right before the market decides whether it pulls back to build a base or fails outright. Either way, the next decision is a cleaner one than chasing the breakout ever was.
THE RALLY, THE STALL, AND WHY IT MATTERS
The move off the lows was fundamentally driven, and that still matters. A soft June jobs print knocked the dollar and yields lower, cut the odds of another Fed hike, and gave gold the fuel to break the 4,060 to 4,097 wall that had capped it for a week. Price then ran straight to the next supply at 4,178 to 4,195 and stalled, printing the sell reaction right at the zone. That is textbook. Resistance is resistance, and a market does not punch through the next ceiling on the first touch after a two percent sprint.
So the struggle now underway is healthy, not bearish. Price stalling and getting rejected at the next resistance after a fast move is the market running out of immediate buyers up here, and it is doing it at exactly the level a disciplined trader wanted to see it pause. Whether that stall turns into an orderly pullback that finds support, or a sharper rejection, is the question the next sessions answer.
THE LEVEL THAT DECIDES THE NEXT LEG
If the struggle here resolves into a pullback, everything hinges on one zone: the broken 4,060 to 4,097 supply. That band was resistance on the way up. If price rotates back into it and holds, turning old resistance into fresh support, that is the retest that confirms the breakout was real, and it is the second, higher quality entry this structure has been building toward. Buy the hold of broken supply, not the chase into the supply above it.
If instead price slices back through 4,060 to 4,097 and closes below it, the breakout is in question and the market likely rotates back down toward 4,000 and the weekly demand at 4,059 to 3,884. That is the line that separates a healthy pullback from a failed breakout, and it is the level to watch on a closing basis, not an intraday wick.
THE PLAN
The bias has improved and the recovery is real, but nothing here is a chase. The smart trade is patience: let the pullback come into the 4,060 to 4,097 zone, watch how price reacts, and take the long only if that broken supply holds as support. No hold, no trade. And keep the bigger picture honest, this remains a strong bounce until the 4,236 to 4,363 daily supply is reclaimed, so manage the long side as a tactical move, not a confirmed new trend, until price proves otherwise.
