Elliottrading — Trading Ideas on TradingView

XAUUSD H1 Technical Analysis Head and Shoulders & Elliott Wave Convergence Gold is currently exhibiting a definitive trend reversal signal following a sustained bullish run. This analysis combines classical chart patterns with Elliott Wave theory to outline the high-probability path forward. Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S) The H&S structure is clearly visible on the current timeframe, signaling buyer exhaustion: Left Shoulder: Formed around the 4,730 level. Head: Peaked at 4,760, where significant selling pressure was encountered. Right Shoulder: Has completed a retest of the 4,750 zone and is now showing signs of rejection. Neckline: Currently situated between 4,660 – 4,670. A decisive break below this line will confirm the bearish reversal. Elliott Wave Perspective The price action is entering a corrective phase, currently transitioning into a 5-wave impulsive bearish structure: Waves (1) & (2): Completed, establishing the peak and a minor corrective bounce. Wave (3): Expected to be the most aggressive expansion wave, targeting the "Buy Scalping" zone near 4,630 – 4,640. Wave (4): A projected technical pullback to retest overhead supply. Wave (5): The final leg lower, aiming for the "Liquidity Strong" zone at 4,550 – 4,560. Key Institutional Levels FVG Sell Zone: The 4,700 – 4,720 range serves as a critical resistance. This is the optimal "Sell on Strength" area if a relief rally occurs. Sell-Side Liquidity: The 4,661 level represents a major liquidity pool. A sustained close below this point is likely to accelerate the downward momentum. Liquidity Strong: The 4,550 area is a high-confluence zone for buyers and serves as the primary target for the completed cycle. Trading Strategy Bias: Bearish / Sell on Rallies Sell Primary Entry: Sell within the FVG Zone (4,700 – 4,715) on a corrective bounce. Breakout Entry: Sell Stop below the Neckline 4,660 Take Profit: TP1 at 4,635 (Scalp target), TP2 at 4,560 Stop Loss: Above the Right Shoulder peak at 4,755 Buy Scalping: Counter-trend scalps should only be considered at 4,635 or 4,555, contingent on clear price rejection and lower timeframe confirmations.

by Kelly_Koou_Gold

XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Gold Approaches Key Trendline Before Possible Wave 5 Extension Gold is showing a strong short-term recovery after building a clear base around the 4,500 – 4,520 area. The current structure suggests that buyers are gradually regaining control, but price is now approaching an important resistance and trendline zone near 4,690 – 4,700, where the next reaction will likely decide whether the bullish Elliott Wave sequence can continue. Market Context From the chart, XAUUSD has formed a strong rebound from the recent swing low near 4,502. The recovery is not moving randomly; it is developing with a cleaner impulsive structure, showing higher lows and stronger bullish candles into the current resistance area. At the moment, price is trading around 4,675, just below the upper reaction zone. This means gold is no longer in an early recovery phase — it is now testing a decision area. Elliott Wave Structure The current move can be read as a developing 5-wave bullish Elliott structure: Wave 1: Initial rebound from the 4,502 low toward the 4,580 area. Wave 2: Corrective pullback, holding above the prior low and confirming early buyer defense. Wave 3: Strong impulsive leg currently pushing toward the 4,690 – 4,700 resistance zone. Wave 4: If price rejects from the trendline area, a corrective pullback toward 4,615 – 4,625 could develop. Wave 5: If the pullback holds, the next bullish extension could target the upper Fibonacci zone near 4,810 – 4,820. The most important detail is that Wave 3 is approaching a trendline resistance, so chasing the move directly under this zone may not offer the cleanest structure. A Wave 4 correction would make the bullish setup healthier. Trendline & Fibonacci View The chart highlights a key trendline/supply zone around 4,690 – 4,700. This area also aligns with the projected Wave 3 reaction zone, making it a major short-term resistance. Below price, the Fibonacci retracement area around 4,615 – 4,625 stands out as the potential Wave 4 demand zone. If gold pulls back into this region and forms a stable reaction, it may prepare the market for a final Wave 5 continuation. The upside projection is located near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 4,818, which matches the upper target zone marked on the chart. Key Levels Current price area: 4,675 Trendline resistance: 4,690 – 4,700 Wave 4 support zone: 4,615 – 4,625 Deeper support: 4,575 – 4,585 Major invalidation area: below 4,500 Wave 5 target zone: 4,810 – 4,820 Scenario & Expectation Primary scenario: Gold may first test the 4,690 – 4,700 trendline resistance. If price reacts from this area, a corrective Wave 4 pullback toward 4,615 – 4,625 would be reasonable. As long as this support zone holds, the structure can remain bullish, with Wave 5 aiming toward 4,810 – 4,820. Alternative scenario: If gold breaks cleanly above 4,700 without a meaningful pullback, bullish momentum could extend earlier than expected. In that case, price may continue toward the upper Fibonacci projection, but the move would need strong candle confirmation to avoid a false breakout. Invalidation scenario: If price loses the 4,615 – 4,625 zone and continues below 4,575, the bullish Elliott count would weaken. A deeper move back toward the 4,500 base could then become possible. Kelly’s View Kelly’s view is that gold remains technically constructive while price stays above the key Fibonacci support zone. However, the current position under the trendline resistance suggests that the market may need a short-term correction before the next bullish continuation becomes cleaner. The most attractive structure would be: trendline reaction → Wave 4 pullback → support hold → Wave 5 extension. Conclusion XAUUSD is building a promising Elliott Wave recovery from the 4,502 low. The next key test is the 4,690 – 4,700 trendline zone. A controlled pullback into 4,615 – 4,625 could create the foundation for a stronger Wave 5 move toward the 4,810 – 4,820 Fibonacci target area.

by Kelly_Koou_Gold

XAUUSD — Bulls Target Wave 5 Completion Gold is still building through wave 5 as rate-cut hopes return Gold continues to trade inside a broader recovery structure, and the current chart still supports the idea that the market is advancing through wave 5 higher rather than losing trend completely. What strengthens that view is not just the technical pattern itself. The broader macro tone is also becoming more supportive after Janet Yellen suggested the Federal Reserve may still have room for one rate cut later this year, even with Middle East tensions keeping oil and inflation risks elevated. For Kelly, that matters because gold does not need a perfect macro backdrop to stay strong. It only needs enough support to keep buyers active while the technical structure continues to build. Technical structure From the chart, gold has been rising inside a clear ascending channel, and price is still respecting that framework well. The latest pullback did not break the channel. Instead, it rotated back into the lower-middle part of the structure, where the market is now reacting around the wave 5 buy zone near the 4740–4750 area. This is the key technical base on the chart right now. Above current price, the structure remains clean: 4970 is the next major upside reference 5100–5120 is the projected target zone for the completion of wave 5 the current channel still supports continuation as long as price remains above the recovery base That keeps the broader move in the category of bullish continuation, not exhaustion. Elliott Wave view The wave sequence on the chart remains constructive. The previous corrective phases have already formed, and the current advance is better read as the market working through the later stage of wave 5. That does not mean price must rally in a straight line from here, but it does mean the larger path still points upward while the channel remains intact. The current dip looks more like a reset inside wave 5 than the beginning of a bearish reversal. That distinction is important. For Kelly, when a market is still holding its rising structure and reacting from a mapped buy zone, the probability still favors continuation higher until price proves otherwise. What matters next The immediate focus is on whether buyers can continue defending the 4740–4750 wave 5 buy zone. If that area holds, gold can rebuild momentum toward 4970 first. A stronger continuation from there would keep the upper 5100–5120 target zone active as the likely completion area for the broader wave 5 move. If price slips below the current base, the market may need a deeper retest inside the channel before trying again. But unless the channel itself starts breaking down, the larger Elliott structure still remains constructive. Macro backdrop The macro side also fits this chart reasonably well. Yellen’s view that the Fed may still cut rates later this year helps keep longer-term support under gold, especially at a time when geopolitical stress and inflation risk remain present in the background. That combination matters because it prevents gold from cooling too easily. Even when price pulls back, the market still has enough underlying support to attract buying on dips. For Kelly, this is exactly the kind of environment where a bullish wave structure can continue developing without needing constant straight-line momentum. Kelly’s read This is not a chart to read as late-stage collapse. It is a chart that still looks like a bullish structure in progress, with the current move behaving more like a controlled pullback inside wave 5. As long as the ascending channel holds and buyers defend the wave-5 support area, the upside path remains the preferred scenario. The next real test is not lower. It is whether gold can build enough momentum from the current base to challenge 4970 and then stretch toward the upper target zone. Conclusion Gold is still trading inside a valid rising structure, and the chart continues to support the idea that wave 5 is not finished yet. With the 4740–4750 zone acting as the current support base, the next upside path remains open toward 4970, followed by the larger 5100–5120 completion zone if momentum expands.

by Kelly_Koou_Gold