01 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Neutral b/w 19563 & 19788 Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “For Monday I wish to continue my bearish stance with the first target being 19563 and second 19484. If the momentum fades and we are unable to pick a direction in the opening 2 hours — I wish to change my stance to neutral to a wait and watch mode.”
Firstly my bearish call did not work out today - that disappointed me a bit.Since the momentum has faded - it also makes sense to move to a neutral stance today. Opening was inline and the first 2 hrs of price move were in alignment to the action from friday (notice the continuous blue line drawn).
What didnt make sense was the 133pts ~ 0.68% rally from the lows to 19734 levels by 13.00. Another 60 odd points - we would have gone into the bullish zone. One major news that broke today was NSE’s plan to extend the trading hours to 6 to 9pm as a separate session - source. Looking at the time slot, I guess its to include the office goers into this betting arena.
We are already overdone with daily expiries, adding extra trading hours to bring in more participation may not work in the best interest of everyone except maybe the exchanges. Professional traders will always prefer reform stability over flexibility. If we push it too hard - these people may abandon ship and move to US markets.
NSE has already said 9 out of 10 people lose money in derivatives. 90% of full time traders are not able to go profitable - how likely is it that part time traders who jump in between 6 to 9pm expect to make money?
Trading itself is a stressful activity, its because we handle the frustration of going wrong along with losing money. 09.00 to 15.30 is usually a period where we remain absolutely focussed, distraction free & dedicated. People like me even eat lunch at the trading desk. Just imagine if we have to dedicate 18.00 to 21.00 also with a similar intensity - wont the work life balance be affected?
On the 1hr TF, Nifty will have to break down below 19563 or break out above 19788 for a trend determination. I wish to change my stance to neutral as long as we remain between these 2 orange lines. Personally I prefer if Nifty breaks down and retests the August lows by this Thursday.
