Fibonancitrading — Trading Ideas on TradingView

XAUUSD – Gold Pulls Back, But The Rising Channel Is Still XAUUSD – Gold Pulls Back, But The Rising Channel Is Still Holding Gold is pulling back, but the structure is not broken yet. After price dropped close to the 4,100 area, buyers started to react near the lower boundary of the rising channel. Gold is now trading around 4,125, just above the key buy zone around 4,112. This is an important moment on the H1 chart. The market is testing whether the recent decline is only a correction inside the bullish channel, or the beginning of a deeper breakdown. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Gold came under pressure in early Asian trading as geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran continued to create uncertainty across the market. At the same time, weaker U.S. NFP data has reduced expectations for a more aggressive Fed path. This can limit downside pressure on gold, because softer labour data often supports the idea of easier policy expectations. For now, the fundamental background is mixed. Geopolitical risk can support gold, while short-term USD strength can pressure price. That is why the technical reaction around the current buy zone becomes very important. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE From an SMC perspective, gold is still moving inside a rising channel. Price has created higher lows from the late-June base, which means the short-term recovery structure remains active. The current buy zone around 4,112 is the most important area on the chart. This zone is sitting near the lower channel boundary, where buyers need to defend the structure. If gold holds above 4,112 and forms a bullish reaction, price may continue higher toward 4,151 first. Above that, the next attention area is around 4,209, where the market may test stronger liquidity and possible resistance. The major upside resistance remains around 4,276. If buyers can push price through 4,209, the path toward 4,276 becomes more interesting. However, if gold breaks below 4,112 and loses the lower channel, the bullish structure becomes weaker. In that case, price may return toward the 4,100 area or lower support zones. KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH Current price: 4,125 Main buy zone: 4,112 Lower channel support: 4,112 – 4,120 Short-term resistance: 4,151 Attention zone: 4,209 Strong resistance: 4,276 Bullish continuation target: 4,209 Main upside target: 4,276 Invalidation for bullish view: Below 4,112 TRADING SCENARIOS Buy Scenario – Channel Continuation View If gold holds above the 4,112 buy zone, I will watch for bullish continuation inside the rising channel. Buy Zone: 4,112 – 4,120 Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe CHoCH, or strong bullish reaction from channel support SL: Below 4,112 or below the nearest swing low TP1: 4,151 TP2: 4,209 TP3: 4,276 if momentum continues Breakout Buy Scenario If gold breaks and holds above 4,151, buyers may continue pushing price toward the next liquidity area. Buy Condition: Clean breakout above 4,151, followed by retest and bullish confirmation Target: 4,209 – 4,276 Sell Scenario – Only If Channel Support Fails Sell is not the priority while gold holds above the buy zone. However, if price breaks below 4,112, the recovery structure becomes weaker. Sell Zone: Below 4,112 after confirmation Entry: Clean breakdown, bearish retest, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH TP1: 4,100 TP2: 4,080 TP3: Lower support if selling pressure expands Invalidation: If price quickly reclaims 4,112 – 4,120, the sell idea becomes weaker. MY VIEW ON GOLD My current view for gold is cautious bullish while price stays inside the rising channel. The pullback near 4,100 created pressure, but buyers are still defending the lower channel area. This means the market has not confirmed a bearish breakdown yet. The key level for today is 4,112. If this zone holds, gold may continue toward 4,151 and possibly 4,209. If 4,112 fails, the structure changes and sellers may regain short-term control. For now, gold is at a quiet but important decision point. Do you think buyers will defend 4,112 and push gold toward 4,209, or will the rising channel break today?

by Hannah_Marland

XAUUSD – Gold Is Pulling Back Into A Key Buy FVG Zone XAUUSD – Gold Is Pulling Back Into A Key Buy FVG Zone Gold is not breaking down yet — it is testing the area where buyers need to prove themselves. After the recent bullish recovery, price is now correcting from the upper area around 4,150 and trading near 4,126. The market has entered a sensitive zone between the Sell FVG above and the Buy FVG below. This is where the next short-term direction may be decided. The current chart is not about chasing the move. It is about waiting for reaction. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Gold remains sensitive to geopolitical tension, oil prices, USD movement, and rate expectations. The latest pressure across precious metals shows that traders are still cautious. Rising oil prices can keep inflation concerns alive, which may support a tighter policy outlook and create short-term pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. However, geopolitical risk can still create safe-haven demand. That is why price may not move in a straight line. The chart reaction around key zones is more important than guessing the news impact. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI From an SMC perspective, gold is correcting after a strong bullish leg from the lower trendline area. The broader short-term structure still has an upward trendline supporting price, but the current pullback is testing whether buyers can continue defending the market. The Sell FVG around 4,150 – 4,155 has acted as resistance. Price reacted lower from that area, showing that sellers are still active near the upper imbalance. The next important area is the Buy FVG around 4,071 – 4,109. This zone is the key demand area on the chart. If gold pulls back into this region and shows a strong bullish reaction, buyers may try to continue the structure higher again. Below that, the deeper liquidity zone around 4,045 is also important because it sits closer to the rising trendline. If price breaks through the Buy FVG and reaches this lower zone, the market may still create one more reaction before deciding the next larger move. The main idea is simple: gold is correcting, but the bullish structure is not fully broken unless price loses the Buy FVG and the trendline support. KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH Current price: 4,126 Sell FVG resistance: 4,150 – 4,155 Confirmation level for downside: Below 4,120 Buy FVG zone: 4,071 – 4,109 Deep liquidity support: 4,045 Uptrend trendline support: Around 4,045 – 4,070 Bullish recovery target: 4,150 – 4,155 Higher target if breakout confirms: 4,180 – 4,200 Invalidation for short-term bullish view: Below 4,045 TRADING SCENARIOS Buy Scenario – Reaction From Buy FVG If gold pulls back into the 4,071 – 4,109 Buy FVG and shows bullish confirmation, I will watch for a recovery setup. Buy Zone: 4,071 – 4,109 Entry: Bullish rejection, liquidity sweep, lower-timeframe bullish CHoCH, or strong bullish displacement from the Buy FVG SL: Below 4,045 or below the nearest swing low TP1: 4,126 TP2: 4,150 – 4,155 TP3: 4,180 – 4,200 if momentum expands Sell Scenario – Short-Term Reaction From Resistance If gold retests the 4,150 – 4,155 Sell FVG and rejects again, sellers may create another short-term pullback. Sell Zone: 4,150 – 4,155 Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH TP1: 4,120 TP2: 4,109 TP3: 4,071 Breakdown Scenario If gold breaks below 4,071 and fails to reclaim the Buy FVG, the recovery structure becomes weaker. Sell Condition: Clean break below 4,071, followed by retest and bearish confirmation Target: 4,045 MY VIEW ON GOLD My current view for gold is corrective, but not fully bearish yet. Price is pulling back from the Sell FVG, and the next real test is the Buy FVG around 4,071 – 4,109. If buyers defend this zone, gold may recover toward 4,150 again. If this zone fails, the market may look for deeper liquidity near 4,045. For me, the cleanest setup is not in the middle. I want to see whether gold respects the Buy FVG or breaks through it. Gold is now sitting between rejection and recovery — and the Buy FVG may decide the next move. Do you think gold will defend 4,071 – 4,109, or will sellers push price down to 4,045 first?

by Hannah_Marland

XAUUSD: Weekly ABC recovery ongoing.◈ XAUUSD: Weekly ABC Recovery Is Still Developing Gold is showing a corrective recovery after reacting from the lower base around 3,980–4,000. From Kelly’s view, the current structure is developing as an Elliott ABC recovery, with price now holding above the 4,042 buy zone and trying to build momentum for the next upside leg. The key idea is simple: the broader trend is still fragile, but the short-term recovery structure remains valid while gold holds above the buy zone. ⟡ Market structure The chart shows gold rebounding from the lower accumulation area after a strong bearish move. Price formed the first recovery leg, pulled back into support, and is now attempting to continue higher from the 4,042 area. The current reaction around 4,058 suggests buyers are still defending the short-term structure. If this support remains valid, gold may continue developing wave C towards the next Fibonacci resistance zone. The first important upside area is around 4,125, where the chart marks a Fibonacci sell zone. If price breaks above this area with strength, the recovery could extend further towards 4,213. ➤ Key levels ◌ 4,042: buy zone and current support area ◌ 4,058: current reaction zone ◌ 4,095–4,100: short-term resistance checkpoint ◌ 4,125: Fibonacci sell zone and first major target ◌ 4,213: possible wave 5 completion / upper weekly target ◌ Below 4,042: area where the ABC recovery weakens ⌁ Elliott Wave view From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a weekly ABC recovery after completing the previous bearish impulse. Wave A created the first rebound from the lower base. Wave B corrected back into the buy zone and held above support. Wave C may now be developing from the 4,042 area, with the first target near 4,125. If wave C expands with stronger momentum, the move could transform into a broader 5-wave recovery, opening the path towards the 4,213 area. However, if gold loses 4,042 and fails to reclaim it, the ABC structure becomes weaker and the market may need to form another base before recovery can continue. ▸ Trading scenario Preferred scenario: wait for gold to hold above the 4,042 buy zone and continue building the ABC recovery. Entry zone: 4,042–4,060 if bullish confirmation appears Stop loss: below the confirmed reaction low or below 4,020 Take profit 1: 4,095–4,100 Take profit 2: 4,125 Take profit 3: 4,213 if wave C expands strongly Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,042 with clear bearish pressure, the weekly ABC recovery loses quality and price may return to the lower accumulation area before building a new structure. ⌁ Kelly’s view For Kelly, this is a recovery setup, but still not a full trend reversal. Gold is trying to build an ABC structure from the lower zone, and the buy area around 4,042 is the key support to protect. If buyers continue defending this area, the next weekly move may target 4,125 first, then 4,213 if momentum improves. Gold is recovering from the lower base. The ABC structure remains active while the buy zone holds. Share your view below.

by Kelly_Koou_Gold