XAUUSD – Accumulating before breakout?Central Bank Demand in Focus | Lana ✨
Gold continues to compress inside a well-defined intraday structure while holding above key Fibonacci support. Despite short-term hesitation below 5,050, the broader structure remains constructive.
What makes this setup more interesting is the macro backdrop.
Goldman Sachs projects gold could gradually rise toward 5,400 USD/oz by year-end, driven by sustained central bank accumulation and renewed private investment demand. This aligns closely with what current structure is quietly suggesting: accumulation rather than distribution.
🔎 Technical Structure
On the 1H timeframe:
4,931–4,950: Key Fibonacci buy zone & intraday demand. Price is repeatedly defending this region.
4,950–4,960: Short-term scalping support.
5,046–5,072: Upper liquidity zone and local supply.
5,400+ region: Higher-timeframe liquidity target – aligns with Goldman’s projection.
Price is forming higher lows while failing to break below 4,930 decisively. This suggests buyers are absorbing pressure rather than exiting positions.
📊 Market Context
Gold’s medium-term strength is supported by:
Ongoing central bank gold purchases (diversification away from USD exposure).
Portfolio hedging demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Gradual softening expectations around real yields over the medium term.
When institutional accumulation aligns with structural support zones, continuation scenarios gain probability.
📈 Forward Outlook
Scenario 1 – Liquidity Sweep Then Expansion (High Probability)
A controlled dip toward 4,930–4,950 could complete short-term rebalancing before expansion toward 5,070 and potentially 5,200+.
Scenario 2 – Direct Breakout
If 5,050–5,070 is reclaimed with strong momentum, upside liquidity could be targeted quickly.
As long as 4,930 holds structurally, downside appears corrective rather than trend-shifting.
🧠 Lana’s Perspective
The chart is showing compression within value, not weakness. With institutional demand narrative strengthening and higher lows forming, gold appears to be building energy for a larger move.
Patience is key. Let liquidity complete before chasing momentum.
✨ Trade the structure. Respect the zones. Let long-term demand guide the expansion.
Long