CPI before breakout - gold trapped 4300–4475The market is entering a large-range consolidation ahead of today’s CPI release. Gold has recovered strongly from the lower levels but is now approaching the upper boundary of the current range, while price remains below the major Demand + Trendline resistance around 4460–4475.
Macro Perspective
Today’s U.S. CPI is the key catalyst for Gold.
Current expectations:
Core CPI m/m: 0.2% vs. 0.0% previous
CPI y/y: 3.4% vs. 3.5% previous
Core CPI y/y: 2.5% vs. 2.6% previous
CPI m/m: 0.1% vs. -0.4% previous
The market is therefore waiting for confirmation on whether inflation is continuing to cool.
A softer-than-expected CPI could pressure the USD and Treasury yields, potentially giving Gold enough liquidity to challenge the upper resistance. However, if inflation remains sticky or comes in hotter than expected, the USD could recover and put renewed pressure on Gold.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently moving inside a large H4 range, with price approaching the upper supply area.
Key resistance: 4460–4475
Major resistance: 4525–4540
Key support: 4350
Next support: 4310–4330
Lower target: 4260–4270
The current structure does not yet justify chasing the rally. Gold needs a confirmed breakout above 4460–4475 to establish a stronger continuation move.
Bullish Scenario
If CPI comes in significantly softer than expectations, Gold could receive fresh USD weakness and break above 4460–4475.
A confirmed breakout could open the way toward 4525–4540.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
The preferred approach remains selling into resistance until Gold proves otherwise.
If CPI fails to provide a strong bullish catalyst and Gold is rejected around 4460–4475, price could rotate back toward 4350, followed by 4310–4330 and potentially 4260–4270.
The key point is that Gold is currently near the top of a large range, not in a clean breakout structure.
Trading Focus
Large timeframe first. Short-term trades should follow the confirmed direction after CPI rather than anticipating the number.
Avoid FOMO around the news release. Let the first reaction develop, then wait for confirmation around the key zones.
LucasGray Trading will continue monitoring institutional order flow, USD reaction and CPI-driven volatility throughout the session, updating the market as new confirmation emerges.
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Short
US economy weakens, Trump pressures Iran - Gold outlook?The market is entering a key consolidation phase after gold’s strong recovery. Price has now started to slow down, with a sharp bearish H4 candle showing rejection after several consecutive sessions of upside momentum. The key question is whether this is only a temporary pullback or the beginning of a deeper move back toward equilibrium.
Macro Perspective
From a macro perspective, investors remain cautious. The recent weakness in the USD and geopolitical headlines have supported gold, but the flow into safe-haven assets is showing signs of hesitation. With the broader U.S. economic outlook still unclear, institutional capital has not yet demonstrated enough conviction to sustain another aggressive gold rally.
The latest geopolitical developments may also reduce part of the safe-haven premium currently priced into gold. If risk sentiment continues to stabilize, capital could gradually rotate away from defensive assets, increasing the probability of a deeper correction.
Technical Structure
Technically, gold has reached a major Demand + Trendline resistance zone around 4460–4480 after the recent rally.
The sharp rejection from the upper levels and the appearance of a strong bearish H4 candle suggest that buyers are beginning to face distribution pressure.
The 4360 area is now an important short-term pivot. Below this level, the next downside areas are around 4320–4300, followed by 4260–4270, where gold could search for a deeper equilibrium.
Bullish Scenario
If gold can reclaim momentum and break decisively above the 4460–4480 resistance zone, the bearish structure would weaken significantly.
A confirmed breakout could reopen the path toward higher institutional supply zones.
However, until that breakout is confirmed, chasing the upside after the recent rally carries a higher risk of FOMO.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
The preferred bias remains bearish.
If gold continues to fail below the current resistance and loses the 4360 pivot, selling pressure could accelerate toward 4320–4300.
A further break below this area could expose the 4260–4270 demand zone, bringing price back toward a more balanced area after the recent aggressive upside move.
At this stage, the market does not need another reason to sell — it needs buyers to prove that they still have enough institutional flow to defend the current valuation.
Do not chase the rally. Treat rebounds into resistance as opportunities to wait for confirmation rather than entering late.
Today's Key Focus
🔴 USD strength / weakness
🔴 Geopolitical developments
🔴 U.S. economic expectations
🔴 Institutional safe-haven flows
🔴 Gold reaction around 4360 / 4300 / 4260
These factors will determine whether the current rejection develops into a deeper correction or merely becomes another pullback before gold attempts to break higher.
LucasGray Trading will continue monitoring institutional order flow and macro developments throughout the session, updating the market as new confirmation emerges.
LucasGray Trading Short 
CPI, PPI next catalysts - smart money choosing.Gold is slowing after the recent aggressive rally. Despite yesterday’s CPI coming broadly in line with expectations — headline CPI at 3.4% YoY, core CPI at 2.5% YoY — price has not produced a clean continuation breakout.
Macro Perspective
The CPI reaction has provided some support for Gold, but the market is still waiting for a stronger catalyst. Today, attention shifts toward U.S. PPI and Initial Jobless Claims, which could influence USD and Treasury yields and determine whether Gold can expand beyond its current range.
For now, capital appears cautious rather than aggressively committed to either direction.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently trapped inside a large H4 range after the recent rally.
Upper resistance: 4460–4480
Major resistance: 4525–4540
Key support: 4350–4360
Lower support: 4310–4330
The 4460–4480 Demand + Trendline zone remains the major barrier for buyers. Meanwhile, the 4350–4360 area is the first important support that must hold to maintain the current bullish recovery structure.
Bullish Scenario
If Gold holds above 4350–4360 and successfully breaks 4460–4480, the current consolidation could become an accumulation phase before another expansion toward 4525–4540.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
If price continues to be rejected below 4460–4480 and breaks back under 4350, the recent rally could begin to unwind.
The first downside targets are 4310–4330, followed by 4260–4270.
At this stage, the market is not yet giving a clean directional signal. The better approach is to wait for price to escape one of these two boundaries rather than chase the middle of the range.
Today's Key Events — USD
🔴 Core PPI m/m
🔴 PPI m/m
🟠 Initial Jobless Claims
These releases could provide the next catalyst for Gold’s breakout or rejection.
Gold is now at a decision point: continue accumulating inside the range, or prepare for the next directional expansion.
LucasGray Trading will continue monitoring institutional order flow, USD reaction and macro developments throughout the session, updating the market as new confirmation emerges.
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Short 
XAUUSD: Bullish Wave 5 targets upward.Gold is showing a clear bullish recovery after breaking away from the lower accumulation base. From Kelly’s view, the current structure suggests that XAUUSD is no longer only moving sideways; buyers are trying to build a larger Elliott Wave continuation towards the upper Fibonacci target.
The key idea is simple: gold remains bullish, but after a strong push, the better setup is to wait for a controlled pullback before following the next upside wave.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold previously traded under a strong downtrend structure, but the latest recovery has changed the short-term rhythm. Price has pushed above the lower base and is now reacting around 4,341, close to the first important resistance area.
This area is important because price may pause here after a strong impulse move. A pullback from this zone would not automatically break the bullish view. Instead, it may form wave 4 before the market prepares for another upward move.
The main buy zone to watch is 4,180–4,198. If gold corrects into this area and buyers defend it, the next bullish leg may continue towards the higher Fibonacci target zone around 4,520–4,560, where the chart marks the possible end of wave 5.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,180–4,198: main buy zone and possible wave 4 support
◌ 4,341: current price reaction area
◌ 4,380–4,400: near resistance and breakout checkpoint
◌ 4,520–4,560: target end wave 5 / Fibonacci extension zone
◌ Below 4,180: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
◌ Below 4,100: deeper invalidation area for the current wave count
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bullish 5-wave structure after the previous bearish cycle slowed down near the lower base.
Wave 1 created the first strong recovery move.
Wave 2 corrected but held above the structure base.
Wave 3 is now pushing price into the 4,340 resistance region.
Wave 4 may form as a healthy correction back into 4,180–4,198.
If this buy zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards the 4,520–4,560 Fibonacci target area.
This is why Kelly would not chase gold directly after the strong rise. The structure is bullish, but the cleaner entry usually comes after the market retests support and confirms buyers are still active.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to correct into the buy zone and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,180–4,198 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave 4 low or below 4,150
Take profit 1: 4,341–4,380
Take profit 2: 4,400
Take profit 3: 4,520–4,560
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,180 with strong bearish pressure, the bullish wave 5 setup becomes weaker. In that case, price may need to rebuild a deeper support base before the next bullish continuation becomes reliable.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the main structure is still bullish. Gold has already shown strong buying pressure, and the current move looks like part of a larger Elliott Wave recovery.
The cleanest plan is to wait for the pullback. If 4,180–4,198 holds, gold may continue the next bullish wave towards the upper Fibonacci target.
Gold is in a bullish continuation phase.
If the buy zone holds, wave 5 may extend higher.
Share your view below. Long 
Smart money waits; NFP will determine gold's fate.The market is entering one of the most important trading sessions of the week as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings are due today. These releases are likely to determine whether gold extends its recent recovery or resumes the broader bearish trend.
From a macro perspective, investors remain cautious. Although the USD has softened recently, expectations for aggressive Fed easing are still limited. As a result, institutional capital has not fully returned to gold, keeping price action highly dependent on incoming economic data.
Technically, Gold has rebounded into a major Demand + Trendline resistance around the 4290–4300 area. This is where buyers and sellers are likely to battle for control.
Bullish Scenario
If today's labor data comes in weaker than expected (lower NFP, rising unemployment, softer wage growth), the USD could weaken further. Gold may break above the current resistance and extend toward the next institutional supply zone around 4420–4430.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred Bias)
If employment data remains resilient or beats expectations, Treasury yields and the USD could recover. Gold would likely fail at the current resistance, retest the Support + Trendline zone around 4230, and if that level breaks, selling pressure could accelerate toward the 4160 demand area.
At this stage, the broader structure still favors the bearish side until buyers can produce a confirmed breakout above the current institutional resistance. Treat rallies into resistance as opportunities to wait for confirmation rather than chasing momentum.
Today's Key Events (USD)
🔴 Average Hourly Earnings m/m
🔴 Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP)
🔴 Unemployment Rate
These three releases will likely provide the catalyst for Gold's next directional move.
LucasGray Trading will continue monitoring institutional order flow and macro developments throughout the session, updating the market as new confirmation emerges.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Smart money back, or final rally before selling?Gold has delivered a strong bullish breakout after reclaiming the short-term descending trendline, signaling that short-term buying momentum has returned to the market. The move has been supported primarily by a weaker U.S. Dollar and renewed short-term capital inflows rather than a meaningful shift in the broader macroeconomic landscape.
From a macro perspective, the bigger picture has not changed significantly. While the Dollar has softened, financial conditions remain relatively restrictive and the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a cautious policy stance. As a result, institutional investors have yet to commit substantial long-term capital into Gold. Current buying activity appears to be driven more by tactical positioning than by a structural change in market expectations.
Technically, the H4 structure has improved after Gold broke above the short-term trendline and reclaimed the 4110 support area. This level now becomes the key battlefield between buyers and sellers. Holding above 4110 would strengthen the bullish recovery and increase the probability of extending toward the 4170–4180 institutional resistance zone.
However, traders should remain cautious. Strong rallies occurring without broad institutional participation often become liquidity events rather than the beginning of a sustainable trend. If buyers fail to defend 4110, the recent breakout could quickly turn into a bull trap, exposing Gold to another wave of selling toward 4040–4020.
Primary Scenario
As long as Gold remains above 4110, short-term momentum favors additional upside toward the next resistance around 4170–4180.
Alternative Scenario
A decisive break back below 4110 would invalidate the breakout and likely trigger fresh selling pressure, sending Gold back toward 4040–4020, where the broader bearish trend could resume.
Market View
Current Bias: Bearish (Medium-Term)
Although the short-term technical picture has improved, the broader macro narrative has yet to confirm a sustainable bullish reversal. Until stronger institutional capital returns, rallies should still be approached with caution. The preferred strategy remains selling into major resistance after bearish confirmation, while allowing short-term traders to capitalize on momentum as long as 4110 continues to hold.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Can U.S. data move gold significantly this week?After a volatile week, Gold enters a period of consolidation as markets wait for fresh macroeconomic catalysts. Although the U.S. Dollar has also lost some momentum following easing geopolitical tensions and the market's pricing of the Fed's current stance, Gold has been unable to attract meaningful buying interest. This suggests that institutional capital remains cautious, with investors choosing to stay on the sidelines rather than aggressively allocating into either the Dollar or Gold.
This week's focus shifts to the U.S. labor market, with JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment, ISM Services PMI, and most importantly Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). These releases will be critical in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Strong labor data would likely support Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar, increasing downside pressure on Gold. Conversely, only a clear deterioration in employment data is likely to encourage safe-haven demand and support a stronger recovery in Gold.
From a technical perspective on the H4 timeframe, Gold continues to trade below the primary descending trendline. Price has repeatedly been rejected from the confluence of the previous Demand zone, the descending trendline, and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement around 4095–4100. Current rebounds remain corrective, with no confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) to signal a trend reversal. Until institutional buying returns, the broader outlook continues to favor another test of lower support levels.
Primary Scenario
As long as Gold remains below 4095–4100, sellers are expected to maintain control. A rejection from this resistance could push price back toward the 4040–4020 support zone. A decisive break below this area would expose the next downside target around 3995–4000, a key liquidity zone on the H4 chart.
Alternative Scenario
If U.S. economic data disappoints and Gold successfully breaks above 4100 with strong buying confirmation, the recovery could extend toward 4120–4140. However, this remains a major resistance area within the broader bearish trend, where renewed selling pressure is expected.
Market View
Current Bias: Bearish (Medium-Term)
Institutional capital remains cautious, and the market is still waiting for a fresh catalyst. Until clearer macro signals emerge, the preferred approach is to trade short-term in line with the prevailing trend, rather than committing to aggressive swing positions. LucasGrayTrading will continue monitoring macro developments and institutional flows, providing updates as soon as new catalysts begin to reshape Gold's broader direction.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Gold starts new month under pressure.Gold finished last week with little progress despite several major macroeconomic events. Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, the market reaction suggests that the decision had already been priced in. More importantly, Chair Powell maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance and stopped short of signaling an imminent easing cycle. As a result, institutional capital has yet to rotate meaningfully away from the U.S. Dollar and back into Gold.
The broader macro backdrop continues to favor the Dollar. The U.S. economy remains relatively resilient, Treasury yields are holding firm, and expectations for aggressive rate cuts have moderated. Unless incoming economic data weakens materially, investors are likely to maintain exposure to USD rather than increase allocations to non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Looking ahead to the week of 03/08–08/08, the market is expected to shift its focus from the FOMC meeting to fresh U.S. economic data. Investors will closely monitor whether upcoming releases reinforce or challenge the current policy outlook. Stronger-than-expected data could further support the Dollar and keep pressure on Gold, while weaker numbers may revive expectations for future rate cuts and provide a catalyst for a broader recovery.
From a technical perspective, the Daily structure remains bearish. Gold continues to trade below the long-term descending trendline and has repeatedly failed to break above the confluence of Demand and Fibonacci 0.382 around 4100–4120. The inability to reclaim this resistance suggests that sellers remain in control of the broader trend, while recent price action reflects consolidation rather than accumulation.
On the downside, the 4000–4020 support area has continued to absorb selling pressure, allowing Gold to move sideways throughout the previous week. However, a decisive break below this zone could expose the next institutional demand area around 3900–3920. Conversely, only a confirmed breakout above 4100–4120 and the Daily trendline would begin to challenge the current bearish market structure, opening the door for a recovery toward 4250–4300.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If Gold continues to be rejected below 4100–4120, the broader downtrend is likely to remain intact. A break below 4000–4020 could accelerate the decline toward the 3900–3920 demand zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim 4100–4120 and secure a confirmed Daily close above the descending trendline, Gold could extend its recovery toward the 4250–4300 resistance area before facing renewed selling pressure.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
The market enters both a new week and a new month with investors still searching for the next macro catalyst. While Gold remains trapped below the Daily descending trendline, rallies are more likely to be viewed as corrective rather than the start of a sustained bullish reversal. Until institutional flows shift decisively away from the U.S. Dollar, selling into strength remains the preferred strategy. LucasGrayTrading will continue to monitor macro developments and institutional positioning, updating the market outlook as new confirmation emerges.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Weekly monthly close: Can gold break downtrend?The market enters one of the most important trading sessions of the month as both the weekly and monthly candles are set to close. Following the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance, while recent U.S. economic data continues to indicate that inflation remains resilient. As a result, institutional capital has yet to rotate decisively away from the U.S. Dollar, limiting Gold's upside despite intermittent buying interest.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains capped beneath the H2 descending trendline, where Demand, Fibonacci, and dynamic trendline resistance converge around 4095–4105. Multiple recovery attempts have failed to produce a confirmed breakout, suggesting that sellers continue to defend this key institutional resistance zone. As long as price remains below this structure, the broader bearish narrative remains intact and rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than trend-changing.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If Gold continues to be rejected below 4095–4105, selling pressure could extend the decline toward the 4040–4030 support area. A decisive break below this zone may expose the psychological 4000 level.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim 4105 with a confirmed breakout above the H2 descending trendline, Gold could extend its recovery toward the 4120–4130 resistance zone before encountering fresh supply.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
As today marks both the weekly and monthly candle close, volatility may increase significantly with the potential for liquidity sweeps in both directions. Reducing position size, avoiding emotional trades, and waiting for confirmed price action are likely to be the most prudent approaches. Capital preservation should take priority over chasing opportunities during high-volatility sessions.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
FED RAISES GOLD, BUT H4 DOWNTREND PERSISTS?The Federal Reserve's latest communication has provided short-term support for Gold, encouraging buyers to re-enter the market as expectations for future policy easing improved. However, while the news temporarily weakened the U.S. Dollar and lifted risk sentiment, the broader macro narrative has not changed enough to confirm a lasting shift in institutional positioning.
Markets are now transitioning from reacting to the headline toward reassessing the implications for inflation, economic growth, and future Fed policy. Unless incoming data continues to support a dovish outlook, the recent rally may prove to be a corrective move rather than the beginning of a new bullish cycle.
From a technical perspective, Gold reacted positively following the Fed news but failed to break the descending H4 trendline, leaving the broader bearish structure intact. Price continues to trade beneath the confluence of the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance around 4060–4100, where sellers have repeatedly regained control over recent weeks. Although buying momentum improved immediately after the announcement, institutional follow-through has been limited, suggesting that capital has not yet fully committed to a bullish breakout.
As long as Gold remains below this resistance cluster, rallies are still more likely to be viewed as corrective recoveries within the prevailing downtrend rather than confirmation of a structural reversal.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If buyers continue to lose momentum beneath the H4 descending trendline, Gold could resume its decline toward the 4020–4000 support zone. A break below this area would expose the next liquidity pocket around 4000–3990, reinforcing the broader bearish narrative.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If Gold secures a confirmed H4 close above the 4060–4100 resistance cluster and breaks the descending trendline with strong momentum, buyers could extend the recovery toward 4120. However, stronger confirmation would still be required before considering the broader trend as bullish.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
Trading Note: The Fed-driven rebound has improved short-term sentiment, but price has yet to invalidate the dominant bearish structure. Until institutional buying is confirmed by a breakout above the H4 trendline, fading rallies into key resistance remains the higher-probability approach.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Only a dovish FOMC can boost gold, or sellers dominate?This is the market's waiting phase. Gold has spent the past several sessions trading inside a broad consolidation while investors avoid taking aggressive positions ahead of tonight's FOMC rate decision, policy statement, and Fed Chair's press conference. The direction of the U.S. Dollar, Treasury yields, and Gold will likely be determined less by the rate decision itself and more by the Fed's forward guidance.
The market broadly expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged, but the key question is whether policymakers continue emphasizing inflation risks or begin signaling greater confidence that price pressures are easing. A hawkish tone could strengthen the Dollar and keep pressure on Gold, while a more dovish message may trigger a short-term relief rally. Until then, institutions are likely managing risk rather than building large directional positions.
From a technical perspective, Gold continues to trade inside a broad descending channel on the H2 timeframe. Every recovery toward the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance around 4055–4070 has been rejected, while buyers continue defending the 4020–4030 support area. This compression reflects a market waiting for a macro catalyst rather than committing to a trend.
As long as price remains below the descending trendline, the broader structure still favors sellers. The recent rebound appears corrective, and rallies into premium resistance continue to offer opportunities for selling rather than signaling a confirmed reversal.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If the Fed maintains a restrictive tone, Gold is likely to remain below the descending trendline and resume its decline. A break beneath the 4020–4000 support zone could accelerate selling pressure toward the 3980 liquidity area, with the broader downside objective remaining in the 39xx region.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If the FOMC delivers a dovish surprise and Gold secures a confirmed H2 close above the 4055–4070 resistance cluster, buyers could extend the recovery toward 4090–4100. Even then, stronger confirmation would still be required before considering a medium-term trend reversal.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
Trading Note: With the FOMC announcement approaching, volatility is expected to increase sharply. Rather than anticipating the outcome, waiting for post-news confirmation is likely to provide higher-quality opportunities. Lucas Gray Trading will continue monitoring macro developments and update the market as price structure evolves after the FOMC decision.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Gold ranging before FOMC: scalp or swing?This week is unlikely to be driven by technicals alone. The market is entering one of the most important macro weeks of the quarter, with the FOMC rate decision, Fed statement, Core PCE, and Advance GDP all scheduled within a short period. Until these catalysts arrive, institutional traders are likely to avoid aggressive positioning, increasing the probability that Gold remains in a broader consolidation rather than developing a sustained trend.
From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve is still expected to maintain a relatively restrictive tone. While rate cuts remain a long-term expectation, policymakers continue emphasizing inflation risks. Unless incoming data significantly weakens the U.S. Dollar narrative, Gold may struggle to establish a convincing bullish breakout.
Technically, Gold continues to trade inside a larger corrective structure. Although buyers have defended the psychological 4,000 support multiple times, every recovery toward the 4,070–4,100 resistance cluster has attracted renewed selling pressure. This suggests institutions are still treating rallies as opportunities to rebalance positions rather than chase higher prices.
At this stage, the market appears more likely to develop a higher-timeframe sideways range while waiting for confirmation from this week's macro events. Instead of expecting an immediate swing move, traders should prioritize short-term scalp opportunities that align with the prevailing intraday trend, as liquidity may continue rotating between nearby support and resistance until a fundamental catalyst provides direction.
Primary Scenario
Gold continues to oscillate between support near 4,000 and resistance around 4,070–4,100. Selling pressure is expected to remain dominant near resistance unless buyers produce a confirmed breakout supported by macro fundamentals.
Alternative Scenario
If the FOMC or accompanying economic data weaken the U.S. Dollar significantly, Gold could break above the current resistance cluster and extend toward 4,120–4,150. Such a move would require confirmation through strong momentum rather than a temporary news spike.
Trading Approach
Rather than forcing swing positions before high-impact news, the preferred strategy is to remain patient and focus on high-probability scalp setups in the direction of the prevailing intraday flow. Risk management becomes increasingly important during event weeks, as volatility can expand rapidly following economic releases.
As always, Lucas Gray Trading will continue monitoring both macro developments and price action throughout the week, providing updated market views whenever institutional positioning or technical structure changes.
Current Bias
Neutral to Bearish (Short-term Sideways, Sell the Rally Preference)
LucasGrayTrading Short 
FOMC WEEK: CAN GOLD HOLD 4000, OR MORE SELLING AHEAD?The week of July 27–31 is expected to be the most important macro event of the month, with markets focusing on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, FOMC Statement, Fed Chair's Press Conference, Advance GDP, Core PCE Price Index, and several key U.S. labor and consumer confidence reports. Rather than any single data release, investors will be assessing whether the Fed begins to signal a shift toward policy easing or continues reinforcing its higher-for-longer stance.
Current market expectations still point to the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged. However, the tone of the FOMC statement and Chair Powell's remarks could become the primary driver for both the U.S. Dollar and Gold. A hawkish message emphasizing persistent inflation risks and resilient economic growth would likely support Treasury yields and the Dollar, increasing downside pressure on Gold. Conversely, any indication that inflation is moving sustainably toward target or that economic momentum is slowing could revive expectations for future policy easing and support a stronger recovery in Gold.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains within its broader daily bearish structure despite stabilizing above the psychological 4000 level. Buyers have repeatedly defended the 4000–4010 demand zone, but every recovery has stalled beneath the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance cluster around 4100–4160. This suggests institutional sellers continue to defend premium pricing while buyers have yet to produce a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) on the daily timeframe.
As long as Gold remains below this resistance zone, the broader downtrend remains technically valid. The 4000 support has become the market's key decision point heading into FOMC week. A decisive break below this area could expose the 38xx liquidity zone, while a sustained move above 4160 would be the first meaningful signal that medium-term momentum is shifting back in favor of buyers.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone and U.S. macro data continues to support economic resilience, Gold may struggle beneath the 4100–4160 resistance cluster. A failure to defend the 4000 support could trigger another wave of institutional selling toward the 38xx demand zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If the FOMC communication is interpreted as more dovish than expected, accompanied by softer GDP or Core PCE data, Gold could establish a confirmed daily close above the 4100–4160 resistance area. Such a breakout would invalidate the immediate bearish structure and increase the probability of a broader recovery toward the next institutional supply zone around 4300.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
LucasGrayTrading Short 
GOLD CLOSES BELOW 4100 – SELLERS BACK IN CONTROL?Gold has shifted back in favor of sellers after failing to sustain its recent recovery. While there have been no major macro developments capable of dramatically changing market sentiment, investors continue to favor the U.S. dollar as expectations for a restrictive Federal Reserve remain largely intact. With this week's economic calendar relatively light, price action and technical structure are becoming the primary drivers of short-term direction.
As the market approaches the weekly close, liquidity conditions typically become thinner, increasing the likelihood of false breakouts and volatile intraday moves. Institutional traders are therefore more likely to prioritize capital preservation over aggressive positioning ahead of the weekend.
From a technical perspective, Gold has now confirmed a bearish rejection from the upper descending trendline and has closed back below the 4100 psychological level, reinforcing that the recent rally failed to establish a bullish reversal. Price is currently attempting a modest recovery, but buying momentum remains weak and has yet to reclaim the Demand + Trendline resistance around 4060–4080. As long as this resistance cluster continues to cap price, the broader bearish structure remains valid, with the 4000 support acting as the next key decision zone.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If Gold remains below 4060–4080, sellers are likely to maintain control into the weekly close. A failure to hold the current recovery could expose the 4000 support, with the potential for a deeper move toward the 3980 liquidity zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H4 close back above the Demand + Trendline resistance would weaken the immediate bearish outlook and suggest buyers are attempting to regain short-term control. Even so, stronger confirmation would still be required before considering a broader trend reversal.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
Trading Note: With the market approaching the weekly close, reduced liquidity can lead to sharper price swings and false breakouts. Remaining patient and waiting for confirmed price action is likely to offer a better risk-to-reward profile than chasing short-term moves. Short 
Resistance holds, is gold set for another sell-off?Gold's recent recovery has lost momentum as the market once again failed to overcome a major technical resistance cluster. From a macro perspective, there has been little change in the broader narrative. The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a cautious stance on inflation, while markets have yet to receive any meaningful catalyst that would justify aggressive expectations for policy easing. Without fresh macro support, the recent rally appears to have been driven primarily by selling/shorting covering rather than a genuine shift in institutional positioning.
As a result, capital continues to rotate cautiously, with buyers struggling to build enough momentum to sustain a broader upside breakout.
From a technical perspective, Gold has once again respected the Demand resistance located beneath the long-term descending trendline. After briefly testing the resistance cluster around 415x, sellers quickly regained control, producing a strong bearish rejection and confirming that the area remains a key institutional supply zone. The failure to establish a higher high reinforces the view that the broader bearish structure is still intact.
Price is now trading back below the short-term support area, increasing the probability of a deeper retracement toward the 408x support, followed by the 406x–404x liquidity zone if selling pressure continues. Until buyers reclaim the 415x resistance and invalidate the descending structure, rallies are likely to remain corrective.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as Gold remains below the 415x Demand resistance, sellers are likely to maintain control. Continued weakness could extend the decline toward 408x, with a further move into the 406x–404x demand zone if bearish momentum accelerates.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim the 415x resistance and secure a confirmed H4 close above the descending trendline, the current bearish structure would weaken, opening the door for another attempt toward the 4200 resistance zone.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation Short 
Can Gold clear 4153 to confirm new trend?Gold has regained bullish momentum over the past two sessions as the U.S. dollar eases from recent highs and risk sentiment stabilizes. However, the broader macro narrative has not changed significantly. The Federal Reserve continues to favor a restrictive policy stance, while markets remain cautious about pricing aggressive rate cuts. Without a meaningful shift in Fed expectations, Gold's recovery is still being driven more by short-term positioning than by a structural change in institutional flows.
This leaves the current rally approaching an important test. Rather than chasing higher prices, institutional traders are likely to focus on whether buyers have enough momentum to reclaim the major resistance zone that has capped price throughout July.
From a technical perspective, Gold has successfully broken the short-term descending trendline and is now trading within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, indicating improving short-term momentum. Price is approaching the 4,153 resistance, where Demand, Fair Value Gap (FVG), and previous supply converge. This zone represents the final barrier before a broader trend reversal can be confirmed. A decisive breakout above 4,153 would strengthen the bullish structure and expose the next liquidity zone around 4,200. Until then, this remains a high-probability area for sellers to defend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may continue extending toward the 4,153 Demand + FVG resistance. As long as this confluence caps price, the recovery is likely to remain corrective, with sellers potentially re-entering the market and driving Gold back toward the 4,100–4,080 support region.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H4 close above 4,153 would invalidate the current bearish bias, confirming a higher high and opening the path toward the 4,200 resistance zone. Such a breakout would suggest institutional buyers are beginning to regain control of the medium-term trend.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation Short 
21/07 H4 - GOLD BREAKS DOWNTREND – BREAKOUT OR BULL TRAP?After several weeks of persistent selling pressure, Gold is finally showing the first meaningful signs of stabilization. The broader macro backdrop has not changed significantly, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance and the market still expecting interest rates to remain restrictive for some time. However, the absence of fresh bullish catalysts for the U.S. dollar has allowed Gold to recover from recent lows as profit-taking and short covering begin to emerge.
Rather than being driven by a major macro shift, the current rebound appears to reflect a change in short-term market positioning. This makes confirmation more important than anticipation, as institutional traders will likely wait for price to validate a new structure before committing to larger positions.
From a technical perspective, Gold has broken above the descending trendline that capped price action throughout the recent decline, marking the first technical improvement in weeks. Price is now approaching the previous Demand + Fibonacci resistance, which also aligns with the former ascending trendline around the 408x area. This confluence represents the market's next decision point. A successful retest followed by a confirmed break above 408x would suggest that buyers are regaining control and could open the way toward the 412x institutional resistance zone.
However, the breakout has yet to receive full confirmation. If buyers fail to defend the 401x support and price falls back below the breakout zone, the recent move would likely be classified as a false breakout, shifting focus back toward the lower liquidity zone.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may continue its recovery after breaking the descending trendline. A successful retest above 401x, followed by a confirmed breakout through the 408x Demand + Fibonacci resistance, could expose the 412x supply zone as the next upside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If price loses the 401x support and falls back below the breakout area, the bullish breakout would likely fail. In that case, Gold could resume its broader bearish trend and revisit the lower demand zone around 394x–396x.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Buy the Dip above 401x – Wait Confirmation above 408x.
Lucas Gay Trading Short 
Gold under pressure: Is 38XX next?The new trading week begins with little change in the broader macro narrative. Last week's softer U.S. inflation data failed to trigger a sustained rally in Gold, reinforcing the view that institutional investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve's cautious stance rather than a single round of economic releases. Fed officials continue to emphasize that inflation has not yet been fully contained, keeping expectations for restrictive monetary policy largely intact. As long as U.S. yields remain relatively firm and the dollar avoids a deeper correction, Gold is likely to struggle in establishing a meaningful recovery.
With the major inflation reports now behind the market, attention shifts toward upcoming Fed communication and broader risk sentiment. The absence of a fresh bullish catalyst leaves Gold increasingly dependent on technical structure, where sellers continue to hold the upper hand.
From a technical perspective, Gold continues to respect its broader daily bearish trend, printing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows beneath the long-term descending trendline. Recent rebounds have repeatedly failed near the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance cluster, confirming that institutional sellers are still defending premium pricing. Although the 390x support zone has generated buying interest, price has yet to produce any meaningful Break of Structure (BOS) that would suggest a trend reversal.
As long as Gold remains below the descending trendline and key resistance, the current recovery should continue to be viewed as corrective. If selling pressure extends through the 390x support, the next major liquidity objective could emerge around the 38xx demand zone, where longer-term buyers may begin reassessing value.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could continue trading within the prevailing bearish structure. Failure to reclaim the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance may expose the 390x support to another test. A confirmed daily break below this area would likely extend the decline toward the 38xx liquidity zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim the descending trendline and secure a confirmed daily close above the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance, bearish momentum could begin to fade. Such a move would be the first indication that the broader downtrend is losing strength and that a deeper corrective recovery may develop.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
Lucas Gray Trading Short 
Weekly close below trendline: Gold outlook?The final trading session of the week arrives with no major macro catalyst capable of shifting market sentiment. Earlier this week, softer U.S. inflation data temporarily weakened the dollar but failed to generate a sustained recovery in Gold. Markets continue to price in a cautious Federal Reserve, with policymakers showing little urgency to ease monetary policy while inflation risks remain elevated. As a result, Treasury yields have stabilized and institutional flows continue to favor defensive positioning rather than aggressive buying in precious metals.
With the week's key economic releases now behind us, price action becomes increasingly important. The fact that Gold has been unable to capitalize on supportive inflation data suggests that buyers remain hesitant, while sellers continue to dominate the broader market structure.
From a technical perspective, Gold is set to close the week below the descending trendline on the H4 timeframe, reinforcing the existing bearish trend. Every recovery toward the Demand + Trendline resistance has been met with renewed selling pressure, confirming this confluence as the key institutional supply zone. Meanwhile, price continues to hold above the short-term support around 396x, but the rebound lacks momentum and has yet to produce a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS).
A weekly close beneath the trendline would strengthen the bearish narrative and keep the focus on the next liquidity zone around 392x–393x. Until buyers reclaim the descending trendline, the current recovery should still be viewed as corrective rather than the start of a broader reversal.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as Gold remains below the Demand + Descending Trendline resistance, sellers are likely to maintain control. Any short-term recovery toward this resistance cluster could attract fresh selling pressure, with the 392x–393x support zone remaining the next downside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers manage to reclaim the descending trendline and secure a confirmed H4 close above the Demand resistance, bearish momentum could begin to fade. Such a move would suggest the current selling pressure is losing strength and open the door for a broader corrective recovery.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation Short 
FED HAWKISH, WHY GOLD BELOW TRENDLINE?Following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data, Gold managed to stabilize but failed to generate the momentum needed for a meaningful breakout. The market's reaction suggests that investors are looking beyond short-term inflation data and remain focused on the broader Federal Reserve narrative. Fed officials continue to emphasize that inflation risks have not been fully eliminated, supporting expectations that policy will remain restrictive for longer. With this week's major inflation releases now behind us, the market is temporarily losing macro catalysts, leaving Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed rhetoric as the dominant drivers.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions remain elevated as friction surrounding the U.S. and Iran continues. While this normally provides some safe-haven support for Gold, recent price action indicates that geopolitical demand has been insufficient to overcome persistent institutional selling. The inability of Gold to capitalize on both weaker inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty suggests that bullish momentum remains fragile.
Technically, Gold continues to trade below the descending trendline on the H2 timeframe, preserving the broader bearish market structure. Recent rebounds have repeatedly stalled beneath the Demand + Trendline resistance around the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement, where sellers continue to defend premium pricing. Until buyers can reclaim this confluence and confirm a Break of Structure (BOS), the current recovery appears to be corrective rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could continue consolidating below the descending trendline before another attempt lower. As long as the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance remains intact, the broader bearish structure favors a move back toward the 4,020 support, followed by the major liquidity zone around 3,980.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H2 close above the descending trendline and the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance would weaken the current bearish structure and suggest that buyers are regaining control. Until such confirmation appears, rallies are likely to remain corrective.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation Short 
Weaker USD and gold impact market trends.Despite softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, Gold failed to attract sustained buying interest. The decline in CPI briefly pressured the U.S. Dollar, but the broader market reaction suggests investors remain cautious rather than aggressively shifting into safe-haven assets. Treasury yields have not declined enough to trigger a meaningful reallocation of capital toward Gold, while expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy remain largely unchanged. Today's PPI release and comments from Fed officials could provide additional direction, but for now, institutional flows continue to favor confirmation over anticipation.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains confined beneath a well-defined descending trendline on the H4 timeframe. Yesterday's recovery failed to produce a decisive breakout, highlighting that sellers continue to defend the upper resistance zone around 407x, where the descending trendline converges with Fibonacci retracement and previous demand turned resistance. While the Dollar has softened, Gold has not responded with the strength typically associated with a bullish reversal, suggesting buying momentum remains limited.
As long as price continues trading below this confluence resistance, the broader bearish structure remains intact. A recovery toward 406x–407x could provide another opportunity for sellers if bearish rejection develops. On the downside, the 396x support area remains the next major liquidity target should downside momentum resume.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may extend its recovery toward 406x–407x.
Bearish rejection from the descending trendline could reinforce selling pressure.
A move back toward 396x remains the preferred scenario while resistance holds.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A decisive H4 close above the descending trendline and the 407x resistance zone could invalidate the current bearish bias and open the door for a broader recovery toward the next resistance area.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally
Key Resistance: 406x–407x
Key Support: 396x Short 
GOLD FACING RESISTANCE: BREAKOUT SOON?Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand, institutional flows remain reluctant to abandon the U.S. dollar. Treasury yields continue to hold at elevated levels while markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious policy stance until inflation shows more convincing signs of easing. As a result, recent strength in gold appears to be driven more by short-term positioning than by a structural shift in macro fundamentals.
From a technical perspective, Gold continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel on the H2 timeframe. Although buyers managed to trigger a short-term Change of Character (CHoCH), price remains trapped beneath the descending trendline, where a confluence of previous Demand, Fibonacci 0.618, and dynamic resistance continues to cap upside momentum. This area represents a key institutional decision point rather than a simple resistance level.
The repeated attempts to challenge the trendline suggest buyers are gradually building pressure. However, without a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS), the broader bearish market structure remains intact. Today's final trading session of the week also increases the probability of liquidity sweeps and false breakouts before the weekly close, making confirmation more important than anticipation.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could extend its recovery toward the Demand + Descending Trendline + Fibonacci 0.618 confluence. If sellers successfully defend this area once again, price is likely to rotate back toward the 0.50 Fibonacci support, with the 0.382 level becoming the next downside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Should buyers finally secure a decisive H2 close above the descending trendline and confirm a Break of Structure (BOS), it would suggest bearish momentum is fading. Such a breakout could trigger short covering and open the door for a broader recovery into higher premium zones. Until that confirmation appears, any breakout should be treated cautiously, particularly during Friday's lower-liquidity conditions.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
LucasGrayTrading Short 
