Only a dovish FOMC can boost gold, or sellers dominate?This is the market's waiting phase. Gold has spent the past several sessions trading inside a broad consolidation while investors avoid taking aggressive positions ahead of tonight's FOMC rate decision, policy statement, and Fed Chair's press conference. The direction of the U.S. Dollar, Treasury yields, and Gold will likely be determined less by the rate decision itself and more by the Fed's forward guidance.
The market broadly expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged, but the key question is whether policymakers continue emphasizing inflation risks or begin signaling greater confidence that price pressures are easing. A hawkish tone could strengthen the Dollar and keep pressure on Gold, while a more dovish message may trigger a short-term relief rally. Until then, institutions are likely managing risk rather than building large directional positions.
From a technical perspective, Gold continues to trade inside a broad descending channel on the H2 timeframe. Every recovery toward the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance around 4055–4070 has been rejected, while buyers continue defending the 4020–4030 support area. This compression reflects a market waiting for a macro catalyst rather than committing to a trend.
As long as price remains below the descending trendline, the broader structure still favors sellers. The recent rebound appears corrective, and rallies into premium resistance continue to offer opportunities for selling rather than signaling a confirmed reversal.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If the Fed maintains a restrictive tone, Gold is likely to remain below the descending trendline and resume its decline. A break beneath the 4020–4000 support zone could accelerate selling pressure toward the 3980 liquidity area, with the broader downside objective remaining in the 39xx region.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If the FOMC delivers a dovish surprise and Gold secures a confirmed H2 close above the 4055–4070 resistance cluster, buyers could extend the recovery toward 4090–4100. Even then, stronger confirmation would still be required before considering a medium-term trend reversal.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
Trading Note: With the FOMC announcement approaching, volatility is expected to increase sharply. Rather than anticipating the outcome, waiting for post-news confirmation is likely to provide higher-quality opportunities. Lucas Gray Trading will continue monitoring macro developments and update the market as price structure evolves after the FOMC decision.
LucasGrayTrading 
Short
Gold ranging before FOMC: scalp or swing?This week is unlikely to be driven by technicals alone. The market is entering one of the most important macro weeks of the quarter, with the FOMC rate decision, Fed statement, Core PCE, and Advance GDP all scheduled within a short period. Until these catalysts arrive, institutional traders are likely to avoid aggressive positioning, increasing the probability that Gold remains in a broader consolidation rather than developing a sustained trend.
From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve is still expected to maintain a relatively restrictive tone. While rate cuts remain a long-term expectation, policymakers continue emphasizing inflation risks. Unless incoming data significantly weakens the U.S. Dollar narrative, Gold may struggle to establish a convincing bullish breakout.
Technically, Gold continues to trade inside a larger corrective structure. Although buyers have defended the psychological 4,000 support multiple times, every recovery toward the 4,070–4,100 resistance cluster has attracted renewed selling pressure. This suggests institutions are still treating rallies as opportunities to rebalance positions rather than chase higher prices.
At this stage, the market appears more likely to develop a higher-timeframe sideways range while waiting for confirmation from this week's macro events. Instead of expecting an immediate swing move, traders should prioritize short-term scalp opportunities that align with the prevailing intraday trend, as liquidity may continue rotating between nearby support and resistance until a fundamental catalyst provides direction.
Primary Scenario
Gold continues to oscillate between support near 4,000 and resistance around 4,070–4,100. Selling pressure is expected to remain dominant near resistance unless buyers produce a confirmed breakout supported by macro fundamentals.
Alternative Scenario
If the FOMC or accompanying economic data weaken the U.S. Dollar significantly, Gold could break above the current resistance cluster and extend toward 4,120–4,150. Such a move would require confirmation through strong momentum rather than a temporary news spike.
Trading Approach
Rather than forcing swing positions before high-impact news, the preferred strategy is to remain patient and focus on high-probability scalp setups in the direction of the prevailing intraday flow. Risk management becomes increasingly important during event weeks, as volatility can expand rapidly following economic releases.
As always, Lucas Gray Trading will continue monitoring both macro developments and price action throughout the week, providing updated market views whenever institutional positioning or technical structure changes.
Current Bias
Neutral to Bearish (Short-term Sideways, Sell the Rally Preference)
LucasGrayTrading Short 
FOMC WEEK: CAN GOLD HOLD 4000, OR MORE SELLING AHEAD?The week of July 27–31 is expected to be the most important macro event of the month, with markets focusing on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, FOMC Statement, Fed Chair's Press Conference, Advance GDP, Core PCE Price Index, and several key U.S. labor and consumer confidence reports. Rather than any single data release, investors will be assessing whether the Fed begins to signal a shift toward policy easing or continues reinforcing its higher-for-longer stance.
Current market expectations still point to the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged. However, the tone of the FOMC statement and Chair Powell's remarks could become the primary driver for both the U.S. Dollar and Gold. A hawkish message emphasizing persistent inflation risks and resilient economic growth would likely support Treasury yields and the Dollar, increasing downside pressure on Gold. Conversely, any indication that inflation is moving sustainably toward target or that economic momentum is slowing could revive expectations for future policy easing and support a stronger recovery in Gold.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains within its broader daily bearish structure despite stabilizing above the psychological 4000 level. Buyers have repeatedly defended the 4000–4010 demand zone, but every recovery has stalled beneath the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance cluster around 4100–4160. This suggests institutional sellers continue to defend premium pricing while buyers have yet to produce a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) on the daily timeframe.
As long as Gold remains below this resistance zone, the broader downtrend remains technically valid. The 4000 support has become the market's key decision point heading into FOMC week. A decisive break below this area could expose the 38xx liquidity zone, while a sustained move above 4160 would be the first meaningful signal that medium-term momentum is shifting back in favor of buyers.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone and U.S. macro data continues to support economic resilience, Gold may struggle beneath the 4100–4160 resistance cluster. A failure to defend the 4000 support could trigger another wave of institutional selling toward the 38xx demand zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If the FOMC communication is interpreted as more dovish than expected, accompanied by softer GDP or Core PCE data, Gold could establish a confirmed daily close above the 4100–4160 resistance area. Such a breakout would invalidate the immediate bearish structure and increase the probability of a broader recovery toward the next institutional supply zone around 4300.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
LucasGrayTrading Short 
GOLD CLOSES BELOW 4100 – SELLERS BACK IN CONTROL?Gold has shifted back in favor of sellers after failing to sustain its recent recovery. While there have been no major macro developments capable of dramatically changing market sentiment, investors continue to favor the U.S. dollar as expectations for a restrictive Federal Reserve remain largely intact. With this week's economic calendar relatively light, price action and technical structure are becoming the primary drivers of short-term direction.
As the market approaches the weekly close, liquidity conditions typically become thinner, increasing the likelihood of false breakouts and volatile intraday moves. Institutional traders are therefore more likely to prioritize capital preservation over aggressive positioning ahead of the weekend.
From a technical perspective, Gold has now confirmed a bearish rejection from the upper descending trendline and has closed back below the 4100 psychological level, reinforcing that the recent rally failed to establish a bullish reversal. Price is currently attempting a modest recovery, but buying momentum remains weak and has yet to reclaim the Demand + Trendline resistance around 4060–4080. As long as this resistance cluster continues to cap price, the broader bearish structure remains valid, with the 4000 support acting as the next key decision zone.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If Gold remains below 4060–4080, sellers are likely to maintain control into the weekly close. A failure to hold the current recovery could expose the 4000 support, with the potential for a deeper move toward the 3980 liquidity zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H4 close back above the Demand + Trendline resistance would weaken the immediate bearish outlook and suggest buyers are attempting to regain short-term control. Even so, stronger confirmation would still be required before considering a broader trend reversal.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
Trading Note: With the market approaching the weekly close, reduced liquidity can lead to sharper price swings and false breakouts. Remaining patient and waiting for confirmed price action is likely to offer a better risk-to-reward profile than chasing short-term moves. Short 
Resistance holds, is gold set for another sell-off?Gold's recent recovery has lost momentum as the market once again failed to overcome a major technical resistance cluster. From a macro perspective, there has been little change in the broader narrative. The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a cautious stance on inflation, while markets have yet to receive any meaningful catalyst that would justify aggressive expectations for policy easing. Without fresh macro support, the recent rally appears to have been driven primarily by selling/shorting covering rather than a genuine shift in institutional positioning.
As a result, capital continues to rotate cautiously, with buyers struggling to build enough momentum to sustain a broader upside breakout.
From a technical perspective, Gold has once again respected the Demand resistance located beneath the long-term descending trendline. After briefly testing the resistance cluster around 415x, sellers quickly regained control, producing a strong bearish rejection and confirming that the area remains a key institutional supply zone. The failure to establish a higher high reinforces the view that the broader bearish structure is still intact.
Price is now trading back below the short-term support area, increasing the probability of a deeper retracement toward the 408x support, followed by the 406x–404x liquidity zone if selling pressure continues. Until buyers reclaim the 415x resistance and invalidate the descending structure, rallies are likely to remain corrective.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as Gold remains below the 415x Demand resistance, sellers are likely to maintain control. Continued weakness could extend the decline toward 408x, with a further move into the 406x–404x demand zone if bearish momentum accelerates.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim the 415x resistance and secure a confirmed H4 close above the descending trendline, the current bearish structure would weaken, opening the door for another attempt toward the 4200 resistance zone.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation Short 
Can Gold clear 4153 to confirm new trend?Gold has regained bullish momentum over the past two sessions as the U.S. dollar eases from recent highs and risk sentiment stabilizes. However, the broader macro narrative has not changed significantly. The Federal Reserve continues to favor a restrictive policy stance, while markets remain cautious about pricing aggressive rate cuts. Without a meaningful shift in Fed expectations, Gold's recovery is still being driven more by short-term positioning than by a structural change in institutional flows.
This leaves the current rally approaching an important test. Rather than chasing higher prices, institutional traders are likely to focus on whether buyers have enough momentum to reclaim the major resistance zone that has capped price throughout July.
From a technical perspective, Gold has successfully broken the short-term descending trendline and is now trading within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, indicating improving short-term momentum. Price is approaching the 4,153 resistance, where Demand, Fair Value Gap (FVG), and previous supply converge. This zone represents the final barrier before a broader trend reversal can be confirmed. A decisive breakout above 4,153 would strengthen the bullish structure and expose the next liquidity zone around 4,200. Until then, this remains a high-probability area for sellers to defend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may continue extending toward the 4,153 Demand + FVG resistance. As long as this confluence caps price, the recovery is likely to remain corrective, with sellers potentially re-entering the market and driving Gold back toward the 4,100–4,080 support region.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H4 close above 4,153 would invalidate the current bearish bias, confirming a higher high and opening the path toward the 4,200 resistance zone. Such a breakout would suggest institutional buyers are beginning to regain control of the medium-term trend.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation Short 
21/07 H4 - GOLD BREAKS DOWNTREND – BREAKOUT OR BULL TRAP?After several weeks of persistent selling pressure, Gold is finally showing the first meaningful signs of stabilization. The broader macro backdrop has not changed significantly, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance and the market still expecting interest rates to remain restrictive for some time. However, the absence of fresh bullish catalysts for the U.S. dollar has allowed Gold to recover from recent lows as profit-taking and short covering begin to emerge.
Rather than being driven by a major macro shift, the current rebound appears to reflect a change in short-term market positioning. This makes confirmation more important than anticipation, as institutional traders will likely wait for price to validate a new structure before committing to larger positions.
From a technical perspective, Gold has broken above the descending trendline that capped price action throughout the recent decline, marking the first technical improvement in weeks. Price is now approaching the previous Demand + Fibonacci resistance, which also aligns with the former ascending trendline around the 408x area. This confluence represents the market's next decision point. A successful retest followed by a confirmed break above 408x would suggest that buyers are regaining control and could open the way toward the 412x institutional resistance zone.
However, the breakout has yet to receive full confirmation. If buyers fail to defend the 401x support and price falls back below the breakout zone, the recent move would likely be classified as a false breakout, shifting focus back toward the lower liquidity zone.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may continue its recovery after breaking the descending trendline. A successful retest above 401x, followed by a confirmed breakout through the 408x Demand + Fibonacci resistance, could expose the 412x supply zone as the next upside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If price loses the 401x support and falls back below the breakout area, the bullish breakout would likely fail. In that case, Gold could resume its broader bearish trend and revisit the lower demand zone around 394x–396x.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Buy the Dip above 401x – Wait Confirmation above 408x.
Lucas Gay Trading Short 
Gold under pressure: Is 38XX next?The new trading week begins with little change in the broader macro narrative. Last week's softer U.S. inflation data failed to trigger a sustained rally in Gold, reinforcing the view that institutional investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve's cautious stance rather than a single round of economic releases. Fed officials continue to emphasize that inflation has not yet been fully contained, keeping expectations for restrictive monetary policy largely intact. As long as U.S. yields remain relatively firm and the dollar avoids a deeper correction, Gold is likely to struggle in establishing a meaningful recovery.
With the major inflation reports now behind the market, attention shifts toward upcoming Fed communication and broader risk sentiment. The absence of a fresh bullish catalyst leaves Gold increasingly dependent on technical structure, where sellers continue to hold the upper hand.
From a technical perspective, Gold continues to respect its broader daily bearish trend, printing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows beneath the long-term descending trendline. Recent rebounds have repeatedly failed near the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance cluster, confirming that institutional sellers are still defending premium pricing. Although the 390x support zone has generated buying interest, price has yet to produce any meaningful Break of Structure (BOS) that would suggest a trend reversal.
As long as Gold remains below the descending trendline and key resistance, the current recovery should continue to be viewed as corrective. If selling pressure extends through the 390x support, the next major liquidity objective could emerge around the 38xx demand zone, where longer-term buyers may begin reassessing value.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could continue trading within the prevailing bearish structure. Failure to reclaim the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance may expose the 390x support to another test. A confirmed daily break below this area would likely extend the decline toward the 38xx liquidity zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim the descending trendline and secure a confirmed daily close above the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance, bearish momentum could begin to fade. Such a move would be the first indication that the broader downtrend is losing strength and that a deeper corrective recovery may develop.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
Lucas Gray Trading Short 
Weekly close below trendline: Gold outlook?The final trading session of the week arrives with no major macro catalyst capable of shifting market sentiment. Earlier this week, softer U.S. inflation data temporarily weakened the dollar but failed to generate a sustained recovery in Gold. Markets continue to price in a cautious Federal Reserve, with policymakers showing little urgency to ease monetary policy while inflation risks remain elevated. As a result, Treasury yields have stabilized and institutional flows continue to favor defensive positioning rather than aggressive buying in precious metals.
With the week's key economic releases now behind us, price action becomes increasingly important. The fact that Gold has been unable to capitalize on supportive inflation data suggests that buyers remain hesitant, while sellers continue to dominate the broader market structure.
From a technical perspective, Gold is set to close the week below the descending trendline on the H4 timeframe, reinforcing the existing bearish trend. Every recovery toward the Demand + Trendline resistance has been met with renewed selling pressure, confirming this confluence as the key institutional supply zone. Meanwhile, price continues to hold above the short-term support around 396x, but the rebound lacks momentum and has yet to produce a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS).
A weekly close beneath the trendline would strengthen the bearish narrative and keep the focus on the next liquidity zone around 392x–393x. Until buyers reclaim the descending trendline, the current recovery should still be viewed as corrective rather than the start of a broader reversal.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as Gold remains below the Demand + Descending Trendline resistance, sellers are likely to maintain control. Any short-term recovery toward this resistance cluster could attract fresh selling pressure, with the 392x–393x support zone remaining the next downside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers manage to reclaim the descending trendline and secure a confirmed H4 close above the Demand resistance, bearish momentum could begin to fade. Such a move would suggest the current selling pressure is losing strength and open the door for a broader corrective recovery.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation Short 
FED HAWKISH, WHY GOLD BELOW TRENDLINE?Following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data, Gold managed to stabilize but failed to generate the momentum needed for a meaningful breakout. The market's reaction suggests that investors are looking beyond short-term inflation data and remain focused on the broader Federal Reserve narrative. Fed officials continue to emphasize that inflation risks have not been fully eliminated, supporting expectations that policy will remain restrictive for longer. With this week's major inflation releases now behind us, the market is temporarily losing macro catalysts, leaving Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed rhetoric as the dominant drivers.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions remain elevated as friction surrounding the U.S. and Iran continues. While this normally provides some safe-haven support for Gold, recent price action indicates that geopolitical demand has been insufficient to overcome persistent institutional selling. The inability of Gold to capitalize on both weaker inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty suggests that bullish momentum remains fragile.
Technically, Gold continues to trade below the descending trendline on the H2 timeframe, preserving the broader bearish market structure. Recent rebounds have repeatedly stalled beneath the Demand + Trendline resistance around the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement, where sellers continue to defend premium pricing. Until buyers can reclaim this confluence and confirm a Break of Structure (BOS), the current recovery appears to be corrective rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could continue consolidating below the descending trendline before another attempt lower. As long as the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance remains intact, the broader bearish structure favors a move back toward the 4,020 support, followed by the major liquidity zone around 3,980.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H2 close above the descending trendline and the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance would weaken the current bearish structure and suggest that buyers are regaining control. Until such confirmation appears, rallies are likely to remain corrective.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation Short 
Weaker USD and gold impact market trends.Despite softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, Gold failed to attract sustained buying interest. The decline in CPI briefly pressured the U.S. Dollar, but the broader market reaction suggests investors remain cautious rather than aggressively shifting into safe-haven assets. Treasury yields have not declined enough to trigger a meaningful reallocation of capital toward Gold, while expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy remain largely unchanged. Today's PPI release and comments from Fed officials could provide additional direction, but for now, institutional flows continue to favor confirmation over anticipation.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains confined beneath a well-defined descending trendline on the H4 timeframe. Yesterday's recovery failed to produce a decisive breakout, highlighting that sellers continue to defend the upper resistance zone around 407x, where the descending trendline converges with Fibonacci retracement and previous demand turned resistance. While the Dollar has softened, Gold has not responded with the strength typically associated with a bullish reversal, suggesting buying momentum remains limited.
As long as price continues trading below this confluence resistance, the broader bearish structure remains intact. A recovery toward 406x–407x could provide another opportunity for sellers if bearish rejection develops. On the downside, the 396x support area remains the next major liquidity target should downside momentum resume.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may extend its recovery toward 406x–407x.
Bearish rejection from the descending trendline could reinforce selling pressure.
A move back toward 396x remains the preferred scenario while resistance holds.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A decisive H4 close above the descending trendline and the 407x resistance zone could invalidate the current bearish bias and open the door for a broader recovery toward the next resistance area.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally
Key Resistance: 406x–407x
Key Support: 396x Short 
GOLD FACING RESISTANCE: BREAKOUT SOON?Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand, institutional flows remain reluctant to abandon the U.S. dollar. Treasury yields continue to hold at elevated levels while markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious policy stance until inflation shows more convincing signs of easing. As a result, recent strength in gold appears to be driven more by short-term positioning than by a structural shift in macro fundamentals.
From a technical perspective, Gold continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel on the H2 timeframe. Although buyers managed to trigger a short-term Change of Character (CHoCH), price remains trapped beneath the descending trendline, where a confluence of previous Demand, Fibonacci 0.618, and dynamic resistance continues to cap upside momentum. This area represents a key institutional decision point rather than a simple resistance level.
The repeated attempts to challenge the trendline suggest buyers are gradually building pressure. However, without a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS), the broader bearish market structure remains intact. Today's final trading session of the week also increases the probability of liquidity sweeps and false breakouts before the weekly close, making confirmation more important than anticipation.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could extend its recovery toward the Demand + Descending Trendline + Fibonacci 0.618 confluence. If sellers successfully defend this area once again, price is likely to rotate back toward the 0.50 Fibonacci support, with the 0.382 level becoming the next downside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Should buyers finally secure a decisive H2 close above the descending trendline and confirm a Break of Structure (BOS), it would suggest bearish momentum is fading. Such a breakout could trigger short covering and open the door for a broader recovery into higher premium zones. Until that confirmation appears, any breakout should be treated cautiously, particularly during Friday's lower-liquidity conditions.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
LucasGrayTrading Short 
407X ZONE - Will CPI trigger gold's next selling opportunity?Today's U.S. CPI release is expected to be the key macro catalyst for Gold this week. After yesterday's sharp decline, buyers have started to defend price around the lower boundary of the descending channel, producing a technical rebound. However, the recovery remains relatively weak, suggesting institutional flows are still waiting for inflation data before committing to a larger directional move.
If CPI comes in above expectations, markets could further reinforce the "higher-for-longer" Federal Reserve narrative, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while limiting Gold's upside. On the other hand, softer inflation could weaken the dollar and trigger a relief rally. Even so, one inflation report alone is unlikely to completely change the broader macro outlook, with PPI and Retail Sales still ahead later this week.
Technically, Gold continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel on the H4 timeframe. The recent bounce from the lower trendline has stabilized short-term selling pressure, but buyers have yet to reclaim the Demand + Fibonacci 0.382 area. The 4,070 region remains the key confluence of Demand, Descending Trendline, and Fibonacci 0.50–0.618, making it the primary institutional supply zone to monitor. Unless price confirms a Break of Structure (BOS) above this resistance cluster, the current recovery is likely to remain a corrective rally within the broader bearish trend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
A softer-than-expected CPI could lift Gold toward the 4,070 resistance cluster, where the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 confluence may attract renewed selling interest. As long as this area continues to cap price, the broader bearish structure remains valid, with the 3,970–3,980 support zone likely to be retested.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers manage to secure a confirmed H4 close above 4,070 and break the descending trendline with a clear BOS, bearish momentum could fade, opening the door for a deeper recovery toward higher premium levels. Until then, any rally should be treated as a potential Sell the Rally opportunity rather than evidence of a confirmed trend reversal.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
LucasGrayTrading Short 
CPI - GOLD NEXT WEEK: BREAKOUT OR SELLOFF?The trading week of July 13–17 is expected to be one of the most important of the month as markets prepare for a series of key U.S. economic releases, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. These reports are likely to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. If inflation remains sticky and consumer spending continues to show resilience, markets could reinforce the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative, supporting both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while keeping pressure on Gold. Conversely, softer inflation and weaker economic data could weaken the dollar and provide room for a broader recovery in precious metals.
From a technical perspective, Gold finished last week trapped within its broader bearish structure. Although buyers repeatedly defended the 4,100 psychological level and attempted to extend the recovery, every advance toward the Demand + Fibonacci + Descending Trendline resistance cluster was met with strong selling pressure. This suggests institutional sellers continue to defend premium pricing, preventing a confirmed trend reversal. On the downside, the 4,040 support zone has remained resilient, repeatedly attracting buying interest and preventing a breakdown. As a result, Gold is entering the new week compressed between major resistance and key support, with both sides waiting for a macro catalyst.
The upcoming inflation and consumer spending data could finally provide the catalyst needed to resolve this consolidation. Whether Gold breaks above the descending trendline or loses the key support zone will likely depend on how the market reassesses the Fed's policy outlook after next week's economic releases.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If CPI and PPI continue to support a stronger U.S. dollar, Gold could once again face rejection around the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance cluster before retesting the 4,040 support area. A confirmed break below this zone would reinforce the broader daily bearish trend.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Should inflation ease more than expected and Retail Sales disappoint, Gold may finally break above the Demand + Descending Trendline confluence, confirming a bullish break of structure and opening the way toward the 0.786 Fibonacci resistance before encountering the next institutional supply zone.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation Short 
Short 
MASON XAUUSD – Intraday Bearish Bias Below Ichimoku
XAUUSD is trading around 4,057 after losing short-term bullish momentum. Price is now moving below the Ichimoku structure, while the recovery attempt is still weak and has not confirmed a bullish reversal.
The priority view for today remains sell with the short-term bearish structure, especially if gold retests the nearby sell zone and fails to break back above Ichimoku resistance.
Technical View
Gold is currently trading below the Ichimoku cloud and below the short-term resistance structure. This shows that buyers have lost control for now, and the market is still under bearish pressure in the intraday view.
The recent drop from the 4,130–4,140 area created a clear bearish impulse. After that, price only recovered weakly into the 4,060–4,075 zone, which is marked as the sell zone on the chart.
This sell zone is important because it sits near the Fibonacci reaction area and under the Ichimoku resistance. If price rejects from this area, it may confirm another lower high before continuing lower.
The 4,035–4,040 area is the first short-term liquidity reaction zone. If gold breaks below this level, selling pressure may continue toward the buy scalping liquidity area around 4,015–4,025.
The 3,984 level is also important because it is marked as a short-term price reaction zone. If bearish momentum remains strong, this area may become the next intraday target before price moves toward the deeper key support around 3,945–3,955.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,057
Sell zone: 4,060–4,075
Ichimoku resistance area: 4,130–4,147
Short-term liquidity: 4,035–4,040
Buy scalping liquidity: 4,015–4,025
Price reaction zone: 3,984
Key support zone: 3,945–3,955
Invalidation: above 4,095
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,060–4,075
Condition: wait for bearish rejection, failed recovery above the sell zone, or price staying below the Ichimoku structure.
SL: above 4,095
TP1: 4,035–4,040
TP2: 4,015–4,025
TP3: 3,984
Final target: 3,945–3,955
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,035 directly, wait for a retest of this level as resistance before looking for sell continuation toward 4,015 and 3,984.
Buy View
Buy is not the priority while price remains below the Ichimoku structure and under the sell zone. A short-term buy scalp may appear around 4,015–4,025 or 3,984, but it needs clear bullish confirmation first.
Final View
Overall, gold is still moving inside a short-term bearish structure. The cleaner plan is to wait for price to retest the 4,060–4,075 sell zone and watch for rejection. As long as gold stays below Ichimoku and below 4,095, the downside path toward 4,035, 4,015, and 3,984 remains in focus.
Will gold reject from the sell zone again, or break above Ichimoku to weaken the intraday bearish view?
Short 
Geopolitical pressure rises. Can FOMC rescue gold?Despite escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, gold remains under renewed selling pressure instead of extending last week's recovery. Unlike previous periods when geopolitical risks directly fueled safe-haven demand, the market is now focusing on their broader macroeconomic consequences. Rising oil prices increase inflation expectations, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to keep interest rates higher for longer. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar continue to attract capital flows, limiting gold's ability to sustain a meaningful recovery.
However, from a broader macro perspective, the underlying narrative remains unchanged. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, inflation pressures have not fully disappeared, and the Federal Reserve has yet to signal a meaningful shift toward a dovish stance. While last week's weaker Dollar supported a sharp rebound in gold, the move still appears corrective rather than the beginning of a sustainable bullish trend.
Technically, price is now approaching the Supply + Rising Trendline + Fibonacci confluence, which represents the final defensive zone for buyers. This area will determine whether the recent recovery can evolve into a larger reversal or simply become another liquidity-driven rally within the broader bearish structure.
On the other hand, if sellers successfully break below this support cluster, the current bearish trend is likely to accelerate toward lower liquidity zones. Conversely, only a decisive breakout above the 42xx resistance region would invalidate the current bearish bias and confirm that a larger structural recovery is underway.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold is testing the Supply + Rising Trendline + Fibonacci confluence, the final support zone before the broader bearish trend resumes.
If buyers defend this area, a short-term technical rebound toward higher resistance remains possible. However, a confirmed breakdown would reinforce the dominant bearish structure and expose lower liquidity levels.
The upcoming FOMC Minutes will likely become the next major catalyst for volatility.
MARKET VIEW
The market's focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to their impact on inflation, Federal Reserve expectations, and the U.S. Dollar. As long as higher oil prices continue supporting inflation concerns and the Fed maintains a cautious stance, the broader macro environment still favors the Dollar over gold.
Current Bias: Bearish unless gold decisively breaks above the 42xx resistance.
Key Focus: Supply + Rising Trendline + Fibonacci support, followed by the FOMC Minutes.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
GOLD MUST BREAK 42XX TO CONFIRM A LONG-TERM BULLISH TRENDGold continues to trade within a recovery phase after last week's sharp rally, but the broader macro picture has not changed enough to support a sustainable bullish reversal. The recent rebound has been driven mainly by weaker U.S. Dollar sentiment and expectations that the Federal Reserve could become less aggressive later this year. However, the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient, inflation risks have not completely disappeared, and the Fed continues to emphasize a data-dependent approach.
As a result, while the market has temporarily reduced demand for the U.S. Dollar, investors are still cautious about pricing in an aggressive easing cycle. Until stronger macro catalysts emerge, gold is likely to struggle to establish a new long-term uptrend.
Technically, gold is reacting below the major Trendline + FVG + Demand resistance cluster after failing to secure a decisive breakout. The recent rejection suggests that buyers are losing momentum as price approaches higher-timeframe supply. As long as this resistance remains intact, the current recovery should still be viewed as a corrective move within the broader bearish structure.
The first downside objective is the 41xx Supply + Fibonacci confluence. A confirmed break below this support could expose deeper liquidity around the 40xx region. On the other hand, only a clean breakout above the trendline resistance would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the door for a stronger recovery.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold remains in a corrective recovery within a broader downtrend.
Selling pressure is expected to return if price continues to reject the Trendline + Demand + FVG resistance cluster.
Failure to break this resistance would reinforce the bearish structure and increase the probability of another move toward lower liquidity zones.
MARKET VIEW
Despite last week's strong recovery, macro fundamentals still favor a cautious outlook for gold. The market continues to watch incoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve expectations, which remain the primary drivers of medium-term direction. Unless buyers reclaim the major resistance zone with conviction, the preferred strategy remains selling into strength rather than chasing the current rally.
Current Bias: Recovery within a broader bearish trend.
Key Focus: Trendline + FVG + Demand resistance around 41xx-42xx.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
JULY OUTLOOK: WILL GOLD RISE OR FALL?Gold begins the new month under persistent bearish pressure, with price continuing to respect the long-term descending trendline that has capped every meaningful recovery over recent weeks.
From a macro perspective, the broader outlook remains unchanged. Capital continues to favor the U.S. Dollar as markets increasingly price in a prolonged hawkish Federal Reserve. While inflation has moderated from previous highs, it remains elevated enough to keep policymakers cautious. With July's Nonfarm Payrolls approaching and expectations for another firm Fed stance still on the table, investors remain reluctant to rotate aggressively back into gold.
Although short-term rebounds may occur as sellers take profits and liquidity builds around key support levels, these moves currently appear corrective rather than the beginning of a new bullish cycle. Unless macro conditions shift meaningfully, rallies are likely to attract fresh selling interest rather than sustained buying.
Technically, gold continues to trade within its established bearish structure. Price is reacting around the lower boundary of the descending trendline, but the overall market structure remains intact. The first recovery zone is located around the 40xx Demand + Fibonacci resistance cluster. As long as this area holds, the preferred scenario remains selling into strength, targeting a continuation toward the 38xx liquidity zone.
If buyers fail to reclaim the major resistance cluster, a confirmed breakdown below current support could accelerate the next bearish leg and expose deeper downside liquidity before any meaningful long-term base can develop.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold remains under bearish control despite entering a new month.
Any recovery toward the 40xx Demand + Fibonacci resistance is viewed as an opportunity for sellers to re-enter the market.
Failure to reclaim the descending trendline would reinforce the broader downtrend and keep the focus on the 38xx liquidity region.
MARKET VIEW
The new month does not change the macro landscape. The U.S. Dollar continues to dominate capital flows while expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and July's economic data maintain downside pressure on gold. Until the macro narrative weakens, rallies should be treated as corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than confirmation of a lasting reversal.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation.
Key Focus: Sell rallies into the 40xx resistance cluster while monitoring the 38xx liquidity zone.
US Session Theme: Strong USD, Fed expectations, and month-opening positioning continue to favor downside pressure on gold.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
NEW WEEK: USD HOLDS ABOVE 100: IS 42XX GOLD'S NEXT SELL ZONE?Gold ended last week with a strong recovery after buyers successfully defended the lower boundary of the long-term descending channel. A combination of softer U.S. Dollar sentiment and weaker-than-expected U.S. data triggered a sharp rebound, allowing gold to recover toward the upper Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Fibonacci resistance zones.
However, from a macro perspective, the broader narrative has not changed. The U.S. Dollar Index continues to hold above the psychologically important 100 level, the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient, and the Federal Reserve has yet to signal a meaningful shift toward aggressive rate cuts. While markets have temporarily priced in a weaker Dollar, the underlying macro environment still favors higher real yields and limits the probability of a sustained bullish reversal in gold.
Technically, gold remains inside its broader descending structure despite the recent rally. Price is approaching the first major resistance cluster around the FVG, Demand, and Fibonacci confluence. This area will determine whether the current recovery can evolve into a larger structural reversal or simply become another corrective rally within the prevailing downtrend.
If buyers fail to produce a decisive breakout above this resistance cluster, selling pressure is likely to return as institutional liquidity continues to favor trend-following positions. On the other hand, only a clean break above the descending trendline and confirmation above the key resistance zone would invalidate the current bearish outlook and open the door for a broader recovery.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold continues recovering toward the FVG + Demand + Fibonacci resistance cluster.
Failure to break this key resistance should provide another opportunity for sellers to re-enter in line with the broader bearish trend.
Only a confirmed breakout above the descending trendline would shift the higher-timeframe bias toward a more constructive outlook.
MARKET VIEW
Last week's rally was supported primarily by temporary USD weakness rather than a fundamental change in macro conditions. With the Dollar Index still trading above 100, the U.S. economy remaining stable, and the Fed maintaining a cautious policy stance, gold still requires a much stronger catalyst to sustain a long-term recovery. Until that catalyst appears, rallies are more likely to be viewed as opportunities to sell into strength rather than reasons to chase bullish momentum.
Current Bias: Bearish structure remains intact. Short-term recovery within a broader downtrend.
Key Focus: FVG + Demand + Fibonacci resistance, followed by the major descending trendline. Wait for confirmation before considering trend reversal.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Short 
Month-end gold: Buying wick or Bearish close?Gold has completed a liquidity sweep below the 394x support before staging a technical recovery back above 4000. However, the key focus is not the rebound itself, but today's monthly candle close. After an entire month dominated by selling pressure, gold is on track to print a strong bearish monthly candle, reinforcing the broader downtrend.
From a macro perspective, the outlook remains largely unchanged. Markets continue to price in a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve, supported by resilient U.S. economic data and persistent inflation concerns. As attention shifts toward next week's Nonfarm Payrolls, expectations of a strong labor market continue to support the U.S. dollar, leaving gold under sustained macro pressure.
Technically, the recent rebound appears to be a reaction after liquidity was taken below the channel rather than confirmation of a trend reversal. Price is now approaching the 402x–406x Demand + Fibonacci resistance cluster, while still trading beneath the dominant descending trendline. This area is likely to determine whether month-end buying can extend higher or simply provide liquidity for another bearish continuation.
If sellers successfully defend this resistance, the broader bearish structure is expected to remain intact, with price likely revisiting the 394x support and potentially extending toward lower liquidity zones. Only a sustained breakout above the resistance cluster would begin to challenge the current bearish outlook.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold rebounds after sweeping liquidity below 394x, but the recovery is approaching the 402x–406x Demand + Fibonacci resistance cluster.
If sellers reject this area, the broader downtrend is expected to resume, targeting the 394x support and potentially lower liquidity levels.
A confirmed breakout above resistance would weaken the bearish structure, but further confirmation is required.
MARKET VIEW
Month-end price action may create volatility, but the broader macro narrative still favors the U.S. dollar. Unless fundamentals change, rallies should continue to be viewed as corrective moves within the prevailing downtrend.
Current Bias: Bearish.
Key Focus: 402x–406x Demand + Fibonacci resistance.
US Session Theme: Month-end rejection or a false recovery before the next leg lower?
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Short 
