Long
GOLD BELOW 4000: OPPORTUNITY OR USD LIQUIDITY DRAIN?Gold remains trapped inside a strong bearish channel after weeks of persistent selling pressure. While price has started to stabilize and form a short-term consolidation, the broader market structure remains unchanged. The current pause appears to be a liquidity-building phase rather than evidence of a sustainable bottom.
Today's attention shifts toward the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, Final GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims. These releases are expected to generate short-term volatility, but unless they significantly weaken expectations for higher U.S. interest rates, they are unlikely to reverse the dominant bearish trend.
From a macro perspective, the market continues to favor the U.S. dollar. Sticky inflation, resilient economic data, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy continue to support USD strength. Despite gold already experiencing a deep correction, capital has yet to rotate back into safe-haven assets, suggesting investors still prefer dollar-denominated positions over defensive commodities.
Technically, gold remains inside a well-defined descending channel. The recent consolidation reflects slowing downside momentum rather than genuine accumulation. The first recovery zone is located around the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci confluence. If sellers successfully defend this resistance cluster, the broader bearish structure is likely to remain intact.
Failure to reclaim this resistance would reinforce the view that the current recovery is merely a corrective bounce before another leg lower toward the liquidity zones below 395x.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold continues consolidating ahead of today's major U.S. economic releases.
A recovery into the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci resistance remains the preferred selling opportunity.
As long as price fails to reclaim this resistance cluster, the market is expected to continue rotating toward 395x, with further downside potentially extending into the 390x region.
Only a decisive break above the current resistance structure would weaken the immediate bearish outlook.
MARKET VIEW
The market is not waiting for good news to buy gold—it is waiting for a reason to leave the U.S. dollar.
Until inflation expectations soften and the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, capital flows are likely to remain concentrated in USD. That keeps the broader macro backdrop unfavorable for gold, making corrective rallies opportunities to trade with the prevailing trend rather than signals of a confirmed bottom.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation within the broader downtrend.
Key Focus: Demand + Fibonacci resistance around 400x–404x.
US Session Theme: Core PCE, GDP and Jobless Claims could increase volatility, but USD remains the dominant macro driver.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Gold Falls Below $4,000 as Bears Stay in ControlGold is now trading below the key psychological level of $4,000, suggesting that sellers still have the upper hand. Instead of chasing the downside, traders may look for a rebound toward the former support zone before considering fresh short positions.
The broader environment remains supportive for the US Dollar, with markets closely watching Fed policy expectations and upcoming US inflation data.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,000 – $4,030
Stop Loss: $4,060
Take Profit 1: $3,940
Take Profit 2: $3,920
As long as gold remains below $4,030, the short-term bias continues to favour sellers. Short 
Gold Faces Pressure as Markets Reprice Fed ExpectationsGold came under heavy selling pressure after investors reassessed the Federal Reserve outlook. While rates were left unchanged, the updated projections suggested that policymakers remain concerned about inflation, strengthening the US Dollar and supporting higher Treasury yields.
At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, adding another layer of pressure on precious metals.
From a market perspective, the recent bounce failed to attract enough follow-through buying, leaving sellers firmly in control below the key resistance area.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,250 – $4,300
Stop Loss: $4,350
Take Profit 1: $4,100
Take Profit 2: $4,050
Take Profit 3: $4,000
As long as gold remains below the $4,270–4,330 region, rallies may continue to be viewed as selling opportunities. Short 
Short 
USD attracts flows, gold's 401x support fragile.Gold is now testing one of the final support zones after several sessions of relentless selling pressure. What stands out is not the technical breakdown itself, but the macro backdrop behind it.
Over the past few weeks, many factors that would normally support gold have failed to generate sustainable buying interest. Geopolitical tensions have eased following ceasefire and peace-negotiation headlines, oil prices have cooled, and risk sentiment has improved across broader markets. As a result, capital continues rotating away from defensive assets and back toward the U.S. dollar.
The key driver remains the same: USD strength and higher-for-longer Fed expectations. Even after recent economic releases, the market still sees limited urgency for aggressive rate cuts. That keeps Treasury yields elevated and maintains demand for the dollar, creating persistent pressure on gold.
From a technical perspective, gold has reached a critical support area around the lower boundary of the current structure. However, the lack of meaningful recovery attempts suggests sellers remain firmly in control. Every rebound has been shallow, indicating that liquidity is not yet returning to the safe-haven space.
Market Scenarios
Primary Scenario – Continue Lower (Preferred)
Wait for corrective rallies into the 410x–415x demand/Fibonacci zones.
Look for bearish confirmation to rejoin the trend.
Targets remain the liquidity pools below 405x and potentially toward the 398x–400x support region.
Alternative Scenario – Technical Bounce
A reaction from current support may trigger a short-term recovery.
However, unless price reclaims and holds above the 415x structure, any rally is likely to remain corrective rather than trend-changing.
Lucas View
The market is sending a clear message: capital is not seeking safety in gold right now. As long as money continues flowing into the USD and expectations for tighter monetary conditions remain intact, rallies should be treated as opportunities to sell rather than evidence of a new bullish trend.
The final support is being tested, but the selling pressure remains dominant. The focus is not on catching a bottom—it is on waiting for liquidity to return before the next leg lower unfolds.
Bias: Bearish 📉
Key Zones: 410x–415x → Sell Zone
Targets: 405x → 400x → 398x
Strategy: Wait for recovery, avoid chasing price at support.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Long 
WARNING: GOLD'S BEARISH TREND CONTINUES UNABATEDGold continues to extend its bearish structure despite several factors that would normally support higher prices. This is exactly why traders need to focus on the broader macro narrative rather than individual headlines.
Over the past few sessions, markets have welcomed progress in peace negotiations, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Oil prices have also softened, helping calm inflation concerns and easing pressure on global markets. Meanwhile, central banks and large institutional players continue to accumulate gold as a long-term reserve asset.
Under normal circumstances, these factors would be supportive for gold.
Yet gold keeps falling.
The reason is simple: the market is currently trading the strength of the U.S. Dollar more than the bullish gold narrative.
Inflation remains elevated enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from turning dovish. Recent Fed communication continues to reinforce the idea that interest rates may stay higher for longer, while the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient compared with other major economies. As long as yields remain attractive and the USD stays strong, capital continues to favor the dollar over non-yielding assets such as gold.
This creates a situation where positive gold news is unable to generate sustained upside momentum, while bearish catalysts continue to have a larger impact on price action.
From a structural perspective, gold has now confirmed multiple breakdowns and continues trading below key recovery zones. The market resembles a liquidation phase rather than an accumulation phase. Every recovery attempt has been met with renewed selling pressure, confirming that sellers remain firmly in control.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
The broader trend remains bearish.
Gold may continue to search for lower liquidity levels before a meaningful bottom can be established. However, after such an aggressive decline, chasing price lower becomes increasingly risky.
The preferred approach remains waiting for a technical recovery toward previously broken Demand + Fibonacci zones around 415x–420x, where fresh sell-side participation could re-enter the market.
MARKET VIEW
This market is teaching an important lesson:
Peace talks are bullish.
Lower oil is bullish.
Central bank buying is bullish.
Yet gold continues to decline.
That tells us the dominant force remains the USD and the higher-for-longer rate environment.
Until the market sees a meaningful shift in Fed expectations or a weakening dollar, rallies should be viewed cautiously and primarily as opportunities within a broader bearish trend.
Current Bias: Strong Bearish 📉
Key Zone: 415x–420x Retest Area
Macro Driver: Strong USD outweighing traditional gold-supportive factors.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
38XX–40XX: Potential bottom or next target?Over the past several weeks, gold has remained under relentless selling pressure, sliding from the 44xx region toward 41xx and continuing to probe lower liquidity zones. The question many traders are asking now is simple: where is the bottom?
From a macro perspective, the answer is not as straightforward as identifying a support level on a chart.
The market is currently transitioning from a panic-driven selloff into a potential bottom-building phase. While the 38xx–40xx region is increasingly emerging as a candidate for a medium-term bottom, it is still too early to confirm. Historically, major bottoms are rarely formed through a single sharp reversal. Instead, they are usually created through a prolonged accumulation process involving repeated tests of lower liquidity zones, false breakouts, failed recoveries, and multiple cycles of buyer-seller repositioning.
This means that even if gold experiences strong rebounds from current levels, those rallies should not automatically be interpreted as the start of a new bullish cycle. The market may continue revisiting lower support areas as it gradually builds a stronger foundation.
From the macro side, the environment remains challenging for gold.
Inflation pressures continue to support the U.S. Dollar, while recent Federal Reserve communication reinforces the possibility that interest rates could remain elevated for longer than markets initially expected. As long as real yields remain relatively attractive and monetary policy stays restrictive, capital has fewer reasons to aggressively rotate back into gold.
Geopolitical developments, economic uncertainty, or temporary risk-off events may still trigger powerful short-term rallies. However, these moves currently look more like corrective recoveries within a broader bearish structure rather than the beginning of a sustained long-term uptrend.
WEEKLY SCENARIO
Primary View
Gold remains in a broader bearish structure and continues searching for a durable bottom.
The current support zone around 40xx remains critical. A temporary recovery can develop from this region, but price may still revisit lower liquidity zones as part of a larger accumulation process.
The 38xx–40xx area is becoming increasingly important as a potential long-term demand zone, though confirmation is still lacking.
Macro Focus
Ongoing inflation resilience supporting the USD.
Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive stance.
Interest rate expectations remain a key headwind for gold.
Geopolitical headlines can create volatility but have not yet changed the broader trend.
FINAL THOUGHT
The market is no longer simply trending lower—it is entering the stage where participants begin searching for value. However, finding value and confirming a bottom are two very different things.
Until macro conditions shift decisively in favor of precious metals, rallies should be viewed cautiously. Gold may be approaching an important long-term support region, but a true bottom will likely require time, repeated testing, and evidence of sustained demand before a meaningful recovery can begin.
Current Bias: Bearish to Neutral
Key Zone: 38xx–40xx
Long-Term Question: Is this accumulation before recovery, or simply another pause before the next leg lower? 📉
LucasGrayTrading Short 
38XX–40XX: A POTENTIAL BOTTOM OR THE NEXT DESTINATION?Over the past several weeks, gold has remained under relentless selling pressure, sliding from the 44xx region toward 41xx and continuing to probe lower liquidity zones. The question many traders are asking now is simple: where is the bottom?
From a macro perspective, the answer is not as straightforward as identifying a support level on a chart.
The market is currently transitioning from a panic-driven selloff into a potential bottom-building phase. While the 38xx–40xx region is increasingly emerging as a candidate for a medium-term bottom, it is still too early to confirm. Historically, major bottoms are rarely formed through a single sharp reversal. Instead, they are usually created through a prolonged accumulation process involving repeated tests of lower liquidity zones, false breakouts, failed recoveries, and multiple cycles of buyer-seller repositioning.
This means that even if gold experiences strong rebounds from current levels, those rallies should not automatically be interpreted as the start of a new bullish cycle. The market may continue revisiting lower support areas as it gradually builds a stronger foundation.
From the macro side, the environment remains challenging for gold.
Inflation pressures continue to support the U.S. Dollar, while recent Federal Reserve communication reinforces the possibility that interest rates could remain elevated for longer than markets initially expected. As long as real yields remain relatively attractive and monetary policy stays restrictive, capital has fewer reasons to aggressively rotate back into gold.
Geopolitical developments, economic uncertainty, or temporary risk-off events may still trigger powerful short-term rallies. However, these moves currently look more like corrective recoveries within a broader bearish structure rather than the beginning of a sustained long-term uptrend.
WEEKLY SCENARIO
Primary View
Gold remains in a broader bearish structure and continues searching for a durable bottom.
The current support zone around 40xx remains critical. A temporary recovery can develop from this region, but price may still revisit lower liquidity zones as part of a larger accumulation process.
The 38xx–40xx area is becoming increasingly important as a potential long-term demand zone, though confirmation is still lacking.
Macro Focus
Ongoing inflation resilience supporting the USD.
Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive stance.
Interest rate expectations remain a key headwind for gold.
Geopolitical headlines can create volatility but have not yet changed the broader trend.
FINAL THOUGHT
The market is no longer simply trending lower—it is entering the stage where participants begin searching for value. However, finding value and confirming a bottom are two very different things.
Until macro conditions shift decisively in favor of precious metals, rallies should be viewed cautiously. Gold may be approaching an important long-term support region, but a true bottom will likely require time, repeated testing, and evidence of sustained demand before a meaningful recovery can begin.
Current Bias: Bearish to Neutral
Key Zone: 38xx–40xx
Long-Term Question: Is this accumulation before recovery, or simply another pause before the next leg lower? 📉
LucasGrayTrading Short 
FOMC WEEK (15-18/06): GOLD RECOVERY OR BEARISH CONTINUATION?After two consecutive weeks of heavy selling, gold plunged from the 44xx region down to 40xx, losing more than 4,000 pips in a relatively short period. The move was driven not only by economic data but also by a major shift in global capital flows and market expectations.
Although softer inflation readings were expected to support gold, investors largely stayed on the sidelines. Safe-haven demand failed to return in a meaningful way, while liquidity continued to leave the precious metals market. As a result, every recovery attempt was sold into, creating a persistent downtrend throughout the first half of June.
Toward the end of last week, however, gold finally found significant buying interest around the 402x support zone, a major daily support area that also aligns with an important Fibonacci extension level. From this region, price rebounded more than 200 points, suggesting that short-term selling pressure may be easing after an extended liquidation phase.
That said, this rebound should still be viewed as a corrective recovery within a broader bearish structure. The key question for next week is not how far gold can bounce, but whether capital will genuinely return to safe-haven assets.
MACRO OUTLOOK
The market narrative is shifting away from inflation and toward monetary policy and economic growth expectations.
The main event next week is the FOMC Meeting and Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on June 18. Markets overwhelmingly expect rates to remain unchanged, meaning investors will focus on the Fed's economic projections and guidance regarding potential rate cuts later in 2026.
Key events to monitor:
BOJ Policy Rate (June 16) – Potential impact on safe-haven flows across Asia.
US Retail Sales (June 17) – A key gauge of consumer strength and economic momentum.
FOMC Economic Projections & Fed Decision (June 18) – Likely to drive market expectations for the second half of the year.
Beyond economics, traders are closely watching geopolitical developments, particularly signs of easing tensions and possible progress toward a peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
If geopolitical risks continue to decline, demand for gold as a defensive asset could remain weak. This helps explain why recent rebounds have struggled to attract sustained institutional buying.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold appears to be forming a temporary base around the 402x–410x region after an aggressive selloff.
In the short term, price may continue recovering toward overhead liquidity and resistance zones, particularly the 43xx–45xx Demand + Fibonacci areas highlighted on the chart.
However, as long as price remains below the major daily descending trendline and key liquidity zones overhead, the broader bearish structure remains intact. Current rallies should still be viewed as corrective moves within a larger downtrend.
If the Fed maintains a cautious stance and US economic data remains resilient, gold could face renewed selling pressure from those higher resistance areas before resuming its bearish trend.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If the Fed adopts a more dovish tone than expected, or if new geopolitical risks emerge that drive capital back into safe-haven assets, gold could extend its recovery from the current lows.
In that case, the market may attempt to reclaim the 43xx–45xx Demand + Fibonacci zones, with the potential to test the higher FVG liquidity area above.
Such a move would be the first indication that medium-term selling pressure is weakening and that the broader bearish structure may require reassessment.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish recovery from major support.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish while price remains below the major descending trendline and key liquidity zones overhead.
LucasGrayTrading 📉🔥 Short 
GOLD RISES FROM 430X, BUT FOMC MAY CAUSE SELLOFFGold continues to respect the recovery scenario outlined at the start of the week. After establishing a temporary bottom around the 40xx liquidity zone, price has maintained a strong technical rebound and is now trading firmly above the previously broken H4 descending trendline.
The key difference compared with last week's recovery attempts is that buyers are no longer reacting only from oversold conditions. Instead, the market is beginning to stabilize above the 430x region, suggesting that short-term liquidity accumulation is taking place ahead of the week's major macro events.
From a macro perspective, gold is benefiting from a combination of factors. Markets are entering a waiting phase before the upcoming FOMC decision, while expectations for a stable Fed stance have reduced aggressive USD buying. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain present but have not escalated enough to trigger a full safe-haven rush. The result is a market environment where traders are reducing directional exposure and allowing gold to recover part of the heavy losses suffered during the previous week.
However, the broader picture remains unchanged. Last week's decline from the 44xx region toward 40xx created significant liquidity imbalances. While gold is currently filling part of that imbalance, the market still faces several important overhead liquidity zones that could attract fresh selling pressure.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as gold holds above the 430x Supply + Fibonacci support zone, the current recovery remains valid.
Price may continue extending higher toward the Demand + Fibonacci resistance around 436x–438x, where the descending trendline and key liquidity clusters converge. This remains the most important area to monitor before the FOMC meeting.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers fail to maintain control above 430x and momentum weakens beneath the recovery structure, gold could return to retest lower support zones before attempting another directional move.
Until the market receives fresh guidance from the Federal Reserve, price action is likely to remain heavily driven by liquidity positioning rather than long-term conviction.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish recovery while price remains above the 430x support region.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish below the major Daily trendline and overhead Demand zones. Current upside remains a corrective recovery within a larger bearish structure.
LucasGrayTrading 📈🔥📉 Short 
FED Stays Firm, Peace Talks Surge: Gold Outlook?Gold remains trapped between two opposing macro narratives.
On one side, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and maintained a cautious tone regarding future policy easing. This effectively confirmed that the recent decline was not simply a short-term correction but part of a broader repricing process as markets adjust to a higher-for-longer rate environment.
On the other side, optimism surrounding peace negotiations and easing geopolitical tensions has sparked a strong technical rebound from last week's panic low. The recovery above the broken descending trendline attracted short-covering flows and helped gold reclaim part of the previous selloff.
However, from a market-structure perspective, the rebound has not changed the bigger picture yet.
Price is currently testing a key Demand + Fibonacci resistance zone around 432x–434x, while the broader daily structure remains bearish. More importantly, the rally appears driven primarily by sentiment and positioning rather than a meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations.
This is why the current recovery should still be viewed as a corrective move until buyers can reclaim higher liquidity zones.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If the market continues to digest the Fed's message and upcoming economic data fails to support aggressive rate-cut expectations, gold may struggle to sustain gains above the current resistance cluster.
In this scenario, the 432x–434x Demand + Fibonacci zone could act as a distribution area, opening the door for another rotation lower toward the 423x–425x Supply zone, where liquidity remains unfinished.
As long as price remains below the major resistance structure, sellers retain the broader advantage.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If geopolitical developments continue to support safe-haven demand or markets begin pricing a more dovish Fed outlook, gold could extend its recovery.
A decisive break above 434x would expose the next liquidity pool around 437x–445x, where larger timeframe resistance and resting liquidity converge.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish corrective recovery above the broken trendline.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish while price remains below the 432x–445x resistance cluster and the market continues to operate within a broader post-FOMC bearish structure.
LucasGrayTrading 📊🔥 Short 
MASON XAUUSD – Gold Holds Above Ichimoku After FOMCMASON XAUUSD – Gold Holds Above Ichimoku After FOMC, Buy Bias Still Favoured
XAUUSD is trading around 4,313 after the strong FOMC reaction. Price is still holding above the Ichimoku cloud and the rising trendline, so the short-term structure remains bullish.
The main plan is to prioritise buy setups on pullbacks, not chase price directly into resistance.
Technical View
After the FOMC volatility, gold created a strong reaction from the lower area near 4,219 and quickly recovered back above the cloud. This shows that buyers are still active after the news-driven move.
The rising trendline is still the key structure on the chart. Price has respected this trendline several times, and the latest recovery also started near this dynamic support. As long as gold remains above this line, the bullish structure is still valid.
Price Action is now moving around the liquidity area near 4,310–4,320. This is a short-term decision zone. If buyers continue to defend this area, gold can move back toward 4,344, then the weekly high at 4,382.
Ichimoku also supports the buy view. Price is trading above the cloud, while the cloud is acting as support below price. This means the market still has a bullish base unless price breaks back below the cloud and loses the trendline.
The 4,344 area may create a short-term reaction because it is near the marked selling zone. However, while the larger structure stays above the cloud, selling remains secondary.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,313
Liquidity zone: 4,310–4,320
Short-term resistance: 4,344
Main buy zone: 4,260–4,270
FOMC low: 4,219
Weekly high: 4,382
Upside target: 4,440–4,460
Invalidation: below 4,219
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,260–4,270
Condition: wait for bullish rejection, higher low, or price holding above the trendline and Ichimoku cloud.
SL: below 4,219
TP1: 4,344
TP2: 4,382
TP3: 4,440–4,460
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks and holds above 4,344, wait for a retest of this zone before looking for continuation toward 4,382 and higher.
Sell View
Sell is not the priority while price stays above the trendline and Ichimoku cloud. A short-term sell reaction may appear around 4,344, but it should be treated carefully unless price breaks below 4,260 and loses the cloud support.
Final View
Overall, gold remains bullish after FOMC as long as price stays above the Ichimoku cloud and the rising trendline. The cleaner setup is to wait for a pullback into 4,260–4,270, then watch for buy confirmation.
Do you think gold will retest the 4,268 buy zone first, or break above 4,344 directly?
Long 
Gold poised for movement before FOMC.MARKET PAUSES BEFORE THE STORM: RETAIL SALES & FOMC AHEAD
Gold continues to hold above the broken descending trendline after last week's aggressive selloff, confirming that the market is still in a technical recovery phase. However, unlike the strong rebound seen earlier this week, price action has now shifted into a tight consolidation range beneath the 437x resistance cluster, signaling hesitation from both buyers and sellers ahead of today's major macro events.
From a broader perspective, this is no longer purely a technical market. The next directional move will likely be dictated by economic data rather than chart structure alone. Today's Retail Sales report will provide an updated view on U.S. consumer demand, while tomorrow's FOMC statement, economic projections, and Powell's press conference could redefine expectations for interest rates into the second half of the year.
The key observation is that despite last week's heavy liquidation, gold has not been able to reclaim major liquidity zones overhead. This suggests institutional money is still waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger bullish reversal. As a result, current rallies should still be treated cautiously until the market receives fresh macro guidance.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If Retail Sales remains resilient and the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on future rate cuts, the recent recovery could lose momentum. In that case, the 437x Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance zone may continue acting as a ceiling.
Gold may then rotate lower toward the 430x support area, with the broader market remaining trapped inside a corrective structure ahead of FOMC.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If today's data disappoints and the market interprets tomorrow's FOMC communication as more dovish than expected, gold could finally break above the compression structure.
A successful breakout above 437x would expose the next liquidity zone around 446x–447x, where the larger bearish trendline and higher-timeframe Fibonacci resistance converge.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish recovery remains intact while price holds above 430x support.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Neutral-to-bearish until gold decisively reclaims the 437x–447x resistance cluster and receives confirmation from post-FOMC flows.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Gold Holds Recovery Structure, Buyers Target $4,380Gold is consolidating above the $4,320–4,330 area after a strong recovery from recent lows. The move does not look overheated yet, which suggests buyers may still be building positions before another push higher.
As long as the $4,300 area holds, the short-term bias remains constructive. A continuation move could take XAUUSD toward $4,360 first, followed by $4,380–4,400.
Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: $4,320 – $4,330
Stop Loss: $4,295
Take Profit 1: $4,360
Take Profit 2: $4,380
Take Profit 3: $4,400 Long 
Gold Holds Higher Ground as Bulls Eye $4,380Gold has slowed after its sharp rebound, but the structure still looks constructive as long as price remains above the $4,300 area. Instead of rejecting aggressively, the market is consolidating near recent highs, which suggests buyers are trying to defend the recovery.
The next upside zone to watch is $4,350–4,380. If momentum improves, gold could later test the bigger resistance near $4,400.
Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: $4,300 – $4,310
Stop Loss: $4,275
Take Profit 1: $4,350
Take Profit 2: $4,380
Take Profit 3: $4,400
A break below $4,280 would weaken the bullish setup and may trigger a pullback toward $4,240–4,260. Long 
Gold Recovery Looks Strong, But $4,380 Is the Real TestGold has bounced sharply from the $4,050 area, showing that buyers are no longer completely absent. The move was strong enough to shift short-term sentiment, but the broader structure still needs confirmation.
The key zone now is $4,350–4,380. A breakout above this area could attract fresh buyers and push XAUUSD toward $4,450. But if sellers defend this resistance, gold may slide back toward $4,200.
Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: $4,300 – $4,320
Stop Loss: $4,240
Take Profit 1: $4,380
Take Profit 2: $4,450 GOLD TESTS H4 423X: RECOVERY OR BEARISH?Gold continues to recover from the extreme selling pressure seen earlier this week after finding temporary support around the 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone. The rebound has been supported by softer inflation expectations, a weaker USD, and some short-covering activity following the aggressive decline that started after Non-Farm Payrolls.
However, from a broader macro perspective, very little has actually changed.
The market is still pricing a relatively resilient U.S. economy despite recent inflation data cooling slightly. Fed rate-cut expectations have improved marginally, but not enough to trigger a meaningful return of safe-haven flows into gold. At the same time, geopolitical concerns and energy markets have stabilized compared to previous weeks, reducing one of the major drivers behind gold's earlier rally.
This explains why the current recovery looks more technical than fundamental.
From a market structure perspective, gold has now reached one of the most important decision zones on the H4 timeframe. Price is testing the confluence of the broken descending trendline, Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 retracement, and a previously identified Demand zone. This area represents a major liquidity pocket where the market will likely decide whether the current recovery can extend further or if sellers regain control.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
The broader structure remains bearish.
Gold may continue pushing slightly higher into the Demand + Fibonacci 0.5 – 0.618 zone, sweeping liquidity above recent highs. However, if sellers successfully defend this confluence area, the recovery is likely to stall and the larger downtrend could resume.
In that case, attention returns to the lower Supply + Fibonacci zones, with the market potentially revisiting the recent lows and extending toward deeper liquidity areas below.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers manage to reclaim the broken trendline and establish acceptance above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, gold could extend its recovery into the higher Demand and FVG zones overhead.
Even so, the market would still need to break multiple liquidity levels before a meaningful trend reversal could be considered.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish recovery into major resistance and liquidity zones.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Bearish while price remains below the broader descending structure and major overhead liquidity.
At this stage, the market is not confirming a new uptrend. Instead, it is testing a critical decision area where both technical structure and macro sentiment are about to collide.
LucasGrayTrading 🚀📉 Short 
Has gold bottomed at 40XX, or another selloff ahead?Gold entered a technical recovery phase after yesterday’s CPI release. However, the key point is that inflation data came in largely in line with market expectations and failed to deliver a meaningful surprise. As a result, the report was not strong enough to change broader market sentiment or trigger a significant shift in capital flows.
Instead of rushing back into safe-haven assets, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode, looking for clearer signals regarding U.S. economic growth and the Federal Reserve's policy path. This lack of conviction has become one of the main reasons behind gold's persistent decline over the past several sessions.
With safe-haven demand fading and liquidity gradually drying up, gold has continued to lose support and slide lower, particularly after the bearish confirmation triggered by last week's Non-Farm Payrolls report. The market eventually reached the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension zone, where buyers finally stepped in and created a temporary bottom.
Although gold has recovered nearly 1,000 points from this area, the rebound remains relatively weak compared to the scale of the previous selloff. So far, the move appears to be driven more by short-covering and technical buying than by genuine institutional accumulation. The broader market narrative remains unchanged: capital is not aggressively returning to gold.
Attention now turns to today's PPI and Unemployment Claims data. While these releases may create short-term volatility, they are unlikely to alter the dominant trend unless they significantly reshape expectations regarding Fed policy and economic growth.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold continues to recover from the Supply + Fibonacci 1.618 zone, seeking liquidity at the overhead Demand + Fibonacci resistance areas.
If sellers successfully defend these zones, the broader bearish trend is likely to resume. The market could then continue toward the next major liquidity targets around 400x–392x, where larger support and liquidity pools remain.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If PPI comes in significantly weaker than expected and unemployment claims rise sharply, gold could extend its recovery into higher demand zones. However, any bullish move should still be viewed as corrective until price can reclaim major resistance levels and invalidate the current bearish structure.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish recovery toward overhead resistance and liquidity zones.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish while price remains below key liquidity areas and fails to reclaim the broader descending structure. Current rallies should be viewed as corrective moves within a larger downtrend until proven otherwise.
LucasGrayTrading 🚀📉 Short 
Gold Rally Faces First Major Test Near $4,220Gold has bounced strongly from recent lows, but traders remain cautious as the broader trend still favours sellers. Markets continue to monitor US inflation figures and Federal Reserve commentary for clues about future interest-rate policy.
The rebound has been impressive in terms of speed, yet the inability to push beyond the $4,220 area suggests that sellers are still active at higher prices. This makes the current move look more like short covering than a genuine trend change.
From a trading perspective, the key question is whether buyers can hold gains above $4,200 or if the market will roll over once again.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,210 – $4,220
Stop Loss: $4,285
Take Profit 1: $4,100
Take Profit 2: $4,050
Take Profit 3: $4,000
Unless gold reclaims the $4,220–4,300 region, rallies may continue to attract selling interest. Short 
Has gold's big short started or just fear?Following last week's aggressive post-Non-Farm selloff, gold has entered a short-term stabilization phase as safe-haven demand continues to fade. Ongoing ceasefire developments have reduced geopolitical risk premiums, while stable oil prices have eased immediate inflation concerns from the energy sector. At the same time, resilient U.S. labor data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
From a macro perspective, market attention is now shifting toward this week's CPI and PPI inflation reports. These releases are likely to become the primary drivers of sentiment, determining whether the Fed can maintain its hawkish stance through the summer. As long as inflation remains elevated, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields are likely to stay supported, limiting upside potential for gold.
Technically, the sharp Non-Farm decline broke several key support levels and pushed gold into lower liquidity territory. However, after such an aggressive move, markets often require a corrective rebound to rebalance positioning before establishing the next directional trend. Gold is currently reacting from the 427x support area and appears to be building a recovery toward overhead liquidity zones.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
The preferred scenario remains a technical recovery from current support toward the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance zone around 437x–439x. This area represents a major confluence of bearish structure, broken trendline resistance, and Fibonacci retracement levels. If sellers successfully defend this region, the broader downtrend could resume, targeting the 427x support zone and potentially extending toward lower liquidity areas below.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Should safe-haven demand unexpectedly return or upcoming inflation data weaken the U.S. dollar narrative, gold could extend its recovery beyond 439x and challenge the Demand + Fibonacci zone around 443x–445x. Nevertheless, this remains the lower-probability outcome while both H2 and H4 structures continue to favor the downside.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish recovery toward resistance.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish while price remains below the major descending trendline and key liquidity zones overhead.
LucasGrayTrading
After a sharp collapse, markets often revisit liquidity before choosing the next direction. Until buyers reclaim key resistance, rallies should be viewed as corrective moves within a broader bearish structure. Short 
Gold Drops Toward $4,000: Are Sellers Just Getting Started?Hello everyone, gold is going through one of its sharpest declines since the beginning of the month, with price falling toward the $4,090/oz area. On the H4 timeframe, the bearish structure remains very clear as price continues to form lower lows while trading well below both the EMA34 and EMA89.
What stands out is that selling pressure is no longer appearing in short, isolated waves. Instead, it is developing into continuous sell-off behavior. Each time price attempts to recover, the bounce is quickly absorbed, showing that sellers remain firmly in control of the market.
From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. dollar continues to receive support from positive U.S. economic data, while expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer are still placing heavy pressure on gold. In addition, investors are staying cautious ahead of the U.S. CPI report, meaning capital is not yet ready to rotate back into non-yielding assets.
In the short term, the $4,150–$4,200 area will be the nearest resistance zone to watch.
If gold rebounds into this zone but shows signs of bullish rejection, selling pressure could continue to drag price back toward $4,000, or even lower. Short 
