Beware of short-term bull trapsOn the H4 chart, gold is testing an important resistance zone around EMA89 (purple) after a rebound from the bottom of 3,120. However, both EMA34 and EMA89 are sloping down, indicating that the short-term trend is still bearish. The current rebound is not strong enough to confirm a reversal.
The most recent candle also has a long upper shadow, indicating that selling pressure is waiting above. If the price is rejected at the 3,250–3,260 zone and turns around to break down to 3,220, there is a high possibility that gold will retest the old bottom around 3,120.
The strategy at this time is to stay out or wait to sell lightly if a clear reversal signal appears near the resistance zone. Avoid FOMO because the rebound has not been confirmed by volume or trend structure. Gold breaks through 3,300 – Selling pressure has not stoppedGold price plummeted from 3,325 to 3,237 USD/ounce after the US and China reached a temporary agreement to reduce taxes. The stock market is up, the USD is strong, money flows out of gold. I see selling pressure clearly dominating.
On H1, the price is still below EMA34 and EMA89, recovering weakly around 3,260. H4 confirms the downtrend that has been formed before. If it does not surpass 3,270, I am inclined to believe that gold will continue to fall to 3,200 – 3,180. Gold surges thanks to China buying goods, waiting for FED waveInternational gold prices jumped to 3,332 USD/ounce, up more than 72 USD compared to the bottom of last night's session. The main driving force came from the wave of gold buying in China, when concerns about the weakening economy caused people to massively turn to gold as a safe haven. The H4 chart shows a strong increase, EMA34 has crossed EMA89, establishing a clear short-term uptrend. If gold surpasses 3,340 USD, it is likely to head towards the old peak around 3,420–3,500 USD.
Crude oil prices are still fluctuating strongly around 57.2 USD/barrel, creating an unstable foundation for the commodity market. The FED will announce its policy in the early morning of May 8. Although it is expected to not change interest rates, any statement can move the market. This will be the next big catalyst for gold. Gold price suddenly accelerates, approaching the 3,300 USD/ounceAfter two consecutive weeks of decline, the world gold price is showing strong signs of recovery when it skyrocketed to 3,266 USD/ounce - an increase of 25 USD in just one session. Although still quite far from the peak of 3,500 USD/ounce, the increase this morning shows that investor sentiment has begun to change direction.
The increase occurred at the beginning of the session despite previous negative forecasts, reflecting the sensitivity of gold to geopolitical and economic information such as US-China trade negotiations or the strength of the USD. The daily chart shows that gold has bounced strongly from the EMA34 support zone and returned to the resistance zone around 3,320–3,340 USD, opening up an opportunity to retest the 3,400 USD mark if the current increase is maintained. NFP & White House Comments to Spark Heavy Volatility?🚨 Gold Pauses at Crossroads – NFP & White House Comments to Spark Heavy Volatility?
Gold is entering the US session with a quiet rebound after an intense selloff phase. Following its historic rally to $3,500/oz, the yellow metal has come under significant pressure — not from fundamentals alone, but from massive profit-taking across Asia, especially from retail investors in China.
Such sharp pullbacks are not abnormal after parabolic runs. Instead, this pullback seems like a healthy technical reset before the market processes two major catalysts later today:
1️⃣ The US Nonfarm Payrolls report (May edition)
2️⃣ Official White House comments on tariffs and trade direction
Together, they’re likely to dictate where Gold is heading next — either a retracement deeper into the demand zones, or a renewed upside attempt toward recent resistance.
📊 DXY & Macro Lens:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded strongly from its base near 98.xx, now reclaiming levels near 100.00. Whether it continues higher depends largely on labor data and economic signals from the White House tonight.
For now, traders should remain neutral-biased but responsive — and treat every key level with surgical precision. Use the H1–H2 timeframe for intraday bias and structure-based execution.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3260
3275
3285
3312
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3244
3230
3215
3200
🎯 Trade Plan for Today – May 3rd, 2025:
🔵 BUY ZONE A: 3232 – 3230
SL: 3226
TP: 3236 → 3240 → 3244 → 3248 → 3252 → 3256 → 3260
🔵 BUY ZONE B: 3214 – 3212
SL: 3208
TP: 3218 → 3222 → 3226 → 3230 → 3235 → 3240
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3276 – 3278
SL: 3282
TP: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260 → 3250
⚠️ Final Notes:
Volatility today could spike sharply during the US session. With nonfarm data + political headlines colliding at once, this is the kind of session where fortunes are made — or lost.
📌 Avoid emotional trades. Let price reach your zones, wait for confirmation, and stick to your TP/SL rules like a professional.
🚀 The real move hasn't happened yet — but it's coming.
Be ready. Be sharp. Trade with discipline. 
Long
Gold forms a top patternOn the H4 chart, the gold price chart is forming a clear bearish structure after forming a three-peak pattern in a row around the $3,435–$3,470 range. Each time the price touches this range, it is strongly rejected, indicating that selling pressure controls the market. The fact that the price cannot maintain above the EMA34 and EMA9 at the same time is also a sign of confirmation of a weakening trend in the short term.
Although gold recovered slightly to the $3,365 range in the Asian session on April 25 thanks to news of PBOC money injection and a weakening USD, the buying pressure was not enough to break the bearish structure. The price quickly reversed and fell below the $3,300 mark, confirming the possibility of further correction in the near future.
Currently, the price has cut below the two EMAs and broken the nearest bottom at $3,290, triggering a bearish signal according to the “small head and shoulders” pattern on the H4. The next target is the strong support zone of $3,180–$3,220. If this zone is broken, the correction trend may extend deeper to the $3,100 area.
The appropriate short-term strategy at this time is to wait for the price to retrace to the $3,310–$3,330 area, cut losses above $3,350 and take profits around $3,200. The bullish scenario will only happen if the price breaks above $3,370 and closes above the old resistance – then the bearish structure will be broken. Gold falls below $3,300International gold prices are currently trading around $3,290/ounce, down $40 from last week and far from the record high of $3,500. The bearish structure still prevails as gold is below the EMA34 and EMA89, while failing many times to regain the $3,300 mark.
Strong profit-taking pressure, a recovering USD and rising bond yields are dragging gold prices down, despite the previous optimistic expectations from the Kitco survey. If gold continues to weaken below $3,300, it could head towards $3,250, deeper into the $3,200–$3,220 range. Conversely, only when it surpasses $3,320 will the downtrend be challenged.
Short-term strategy: Prioritize selling when gold recovers weakly. Trump’s Trade Tensions Fuel Safe Haven Demand Amid USD WeaknessGold Analysis: Trump’s Trade Tensions Fuel Safe Haven Demand Amid USD Weakness 💰📈
On April 15, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into potential tariffs on critical mineral imports, marking a further escalation in the trade dispute with global partners, especially China. This new wave of tension between the world's two largest economies has caused market sentiment to weaken, pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has weakened, dropping to its lowest level in three years last week, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies.
Fed's Stance on Market Volatility: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve will not intervene to "rescue" markets amid heavy volatility, emphasizing that the market is reacting to several uncertainties, particularly the ever-changing trade policies under Trump. Powell believes it's too early to determine what is really causing the volatility, and in the short term, instability could persist, partly driven by hedge funds reducing leverage.
Gold Outlook: Bullish Trend Continues:
Given the current market conditions, it’s evident that gold is likely to continue its upward momentum and reach new all-time highs (ATH). With global financial markets offering little hope for immediate monetary stimulus, as announced by the Fed, gold remains an appealing choice.
Trading Strategy:
Current View: Focus on BUY positions as the market continues to push higher. While we’re trading at ATH levels, sharp pullbacks are normal and can be expected without major news triggers.
Trade Plan: We won’t look for SELL entries at this point, but instead wait for strong market pullbacks to buy. If significant drops occur, we’ll enter BUY positions based on continuation patterns (CP) and key support levels on M15 and M30 charts.
Expected Pullback: After a strong push early in the Asian session today, the price is expected to return to the 331x - 3300 range for potential buy entries.
Key Support Levels:
3314, 3300, 3284, 3266
Key Resistance Levels:
3380, 3396, 3410
Trade Zones:
BUY ZONE: 3300 - 3298
SL: 3264
TP: 3304 - 3308 - 3312 - 3316 - 3320 - 3324 - 3330 - ???
SELL ZONE: 3396 - 3398
SL: 3402
TP: 3392 - 3388 - 3384 - 3380 - 3376 - 3370
Important Reminder:
Focus on securing BUY entries today. Although there could be sudden drops for potential SELL opportunities, they aren’t part of the plan for now. Wait for key resistance levels or psychological barriers set by other traders for potential shorting.
Always adhere to TP/SL levels to ensure your account remains safe. 🛡️
Long 
Sideways Action Awaiting Liquidity Pullback Before Push to $3300Gold Price Strategy for the Week: Sideways Action Awaiting Liquidity Pullback Before Push to $3300 💰📈
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently moving sideways within a wide range of 30 price levels, from 3246 to 3216, and is showing hesitation at these levels. There is no clear indication yet if gold will continue to rise or if we’ll see a corrective phase to gather liquidity. Currently, indicators are showing that gold is overbought, and a strong pullback to gather liquidity could happen anytime. The buying pressure has decreased compared to last week, and FOMO seems to have faded, so we may watch for an entry point during the European session today. If gold fails to push higher, we could consider a potential sell entry.
Key Resistance: 3246 (ATH), 3255, 3268, 3285, 3302
Key Support: 3216, 3195, 3172, 3152, 3120
Buy Zone 📈: 3172 - 3170, SL: 3166, TP: 3176 - 3180 - 3184 - 3188 - 3192 - 3196 - 3200
Sell Zone 🔽: 3268 - 3270, SL: 3274, TP: 3264 - 3260 - 3256 - 3252 - 3248 - 3244 - 3240
Market Outlook:
This week, there are no major news events to focus on, so the strategy will primarily revolve around observing the market volume for clues on the next move. The key focus will be on the European and U.S. sessions to determine the market direction more clearly. With the current market volatility, it’s essential to stick to your TP/SL levels for risk management and to protect your account.
Important Reminder: Despite the lack of news, the market remains extremely unpredictable, and large price movements are likely. Always adhere to your TP/SL and manage your trades carefully. 🛡 TRADE WAR STORM BREWING – IS A GLOBAL BIGSHORT COMING?🚨 TRADE WAR STORM BREWING – IS A GLOBAL BIGSHORT COMING?
In the past 24 hours, global financial markets have been rocked by the shock announcement of Trump’s aggressive global tariff policy. This isn’t just a geopolitical maneuver — it’s a potential trigger for massive systemic volatility, affecting everything from U.S. equities to Gold, DXY, crypto, and major global indices in Asia and Europe.
🔍 What Just Happened?
We saw Gold crash over 100 points, a move that caught many traders off guard. Under normal circumstances, a weakening USD would be bullish for Gold. But here’s the twist: the Dollar also dropped sharply, yet Gold was still aggressively sold off.
Why?
👉 A plausible explanation is that major funds and investors liquidated their Gold positions to cover equity losses or to meet margin calls from collapsing positions across other markets.
This is no ordinary move — it may well be the beginning of a “BIGSHORT” phase across global assets.
🧨 This Is Just the Beginning
The market reaction suggests that we are not in a routine correction. Instead, we may be witnessing the early stages of a coordinated risk-off movement — one sparked by fears of a new global trade war with far-reaching implications.
Tariffs on aluminum, steel, manufacturing goods, and industrial inputs have already disrupted entire supply chains. Industry-specific disruptions (e.g. construction, healthcare, utilities, wholesale) are beginning to show — this is not a drill.
📉 U.S. Macro Data Is Getting Worse
The headline inflation data in the U.S. continues to fall, but other economic indicators are flashing red:
ISM Services PMI (Mar): 50.8 (vs. 53.0 expected)
Employment: 46.2 (prev: 53.9) — a sharp drop
New Orders: 50.4
Export Orders & Backlogs: Both declined significantly
👉 The ISM Services sector represents more than 70% of U.S. GDP. A reading this weak suggests that the U.S. economy may be slowing faster than expected.
🧠 Market Sentiment Is Shaky
Fear is back. And worse: FOMO and panic are driving decisions, not logic.
Retail and institutional traders alike are struggling to digest the overlapping risks: tariffs, inflation uncertainty, interest rates, and recession fears.
Tonight brings another major catalyst:
📆 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) — a key employment report that could reinforce or break the current narrative.
🏦 Will the Fed Cut Rates Earlier Than Expected?
Here’s what markets are now pricing in:
Rate cuts may start as early as May or June 2025
Probabilities have risen for 2–4 rate cuts this year, compared to 2 cuts expected previously
Odds of a summer pivot are now well above 50%
If the Fed sees continued weakness in labor and services, it may have no choice but to cut earlier — regardless of inflation progress.
⚠️ Strategic Takeaway: Watch, Don’t Chase
Before looking for entries, take a breath.
This is a time when doing nothing might be the smartest trade.
“Sometimes, staying on the sidelines is how you survive the storm.”
Let the volatility play out — and prepare for high-probability setups, not emotional trades.
📊 TECHNICAL LEVELS TO WATCH
🔺 Resistance Levels:
3110 – 3119 – 3136 – 3148 – 3167
🔻 Support Levels:
3086 – 3075 – 3055 – 3040 – 3024
BUY ZONE: 3056 – 3054
SL: 3050
TP: 3060 – 3064 – 3068 – 3072 – 3076 – 3080
SELL ZONE: 3148 – 3150
SL: 3154
TP: 3144 – 3140 – 3136 – 3132 – 3128 – 3124 – 3120
💬 Final Thoughts
The combination of geopolitical tariffs, recession fears, and Fed policy uncertainty has created a perfect storm across global markets.
We’re entering a phase where any careless trade can wipe out weeks of progress. Be cautious. Stay informed. Wait for clarity before going big.
📌 As for Gold:
Are we seeing just a pullback — or is this the calm before an ATH breakout?
Stay sharp. Set clear SL/TP. Follow the macro, respect the chart — and most importantly, don’t trade scared.
🧠 Patience is profit. Let the market come to you. Short 
Gold silver update next Our Spot #Gold Range Prediction from 31/03/2025 to 04/04/2025 is as under.
Gold Spot : 3023$-3126$
Gold INR : 88100-91050
Our Spot #Silver Range prediction from 31/03/2025 to 04/04/2025 is as under.
Silver Spot: 33.44$-35.05$
Silver INR: 98400-103200
It must be remembered that price of precious metal depends on so many world wide factors like inflation, Fed interest rate, trade barrier, geopolitical tension, demand, supply, bond yield, dollar index , GDP, payroll data, CPI, currency fluctuation, debt ceiling , expected tax & duty changes, other commodity price crude oil etc. etc. and hence there can not be any accurate barometer of predicting precious metal price.
Gold INR has been calculated taking Gold Spot international price and converting the same assuming fixed Indian rupee rate. However, this is not accurate method as change in rupee value to dollar can substantially impact Gold INR price. Pl. note that price of commodity doesn't depend upon performence of company but depend upon performence of world economy, hence it is extremely risky to trade in commodities. Commodities market also become more volatile during contract expiry.
These are not a recommendation for buy or sell. This view is only for educational purpose. You are requested to consult your financial advisor before entering in to any trade. Gold silver update Our Spot #Gold Range Prediction from 31/03/2025 to 04/04/2025 is as under.
Gold Spot : 3023$-3126$
Gold INR : 88100-91050
Our Spot #Silver Range prediction from 31/03/2025 to 04/04/2025 is as under.
Silver Spot: 33.44$-35.05$
Silver INR: 98400-103200
It must be remembered that price of precious metal depends on so many world wide factors like inflation, Fed interest rate, trade barrier, geopolitical tension, demand, supply, bond yield, dollar index , GDP, payroll data, CPI, currency fluctuation, debt ceiling , expected tax & duty changes, other commodity price crude oil etc. etc. and hence there can not be any accurate barometer of predicting precious metal price.
Gold INR has been calculated taking Gold Spot international price and converting the same assuming fixed Indian rupee rate. However, this is not accurate method as change in rupee value to dollar can substantially impact Gold INR price. Pl. note that price of commodity doesn't depend upon performence of company but depend upon performence of world economy, hence it is extremely risky to trade in commodities. Commodities market also become more volatile during contract expiry.
These are not a recommendation for buy or sell. This view is only for educational purpose. You are requested to consult your financial advisor before entering in to any trade. Good silver next wives Our Spot #Gold Range Prediction from 31/03/2025 to 04/04/2025 is as under.
Gold Spot : 3023$-3126$
Gold INR : 88100-91050
Our Spot #Silver Range prediction from 31/03/2025 to 04/04/2025 is as under.
Silver Spot: 33.44$-35.05$
Silver INR: 98400-103200
It must be remembered that price of precious metal depends on so many world wide factors like inflation, Fed interest rate, trade barrier, geopolitical tension, demand, supply, bond yield, dollar index , GDP, payroll data, CPI, currency fluctuation, debt ceiling , expected tax & duty changes, other commodity price crude oil etc. etc. and hence there can not be any accurate barometer of predicting precious metal price.
Gold INR has been calculated taking Gold Spot international price and converting the same assuming fixed Indian rupee rate. However, this is not accurate method as change in rupee value to dollar can substantially impact Gold INR price. Pl. note that price of commodity doesn't depend upon performence of company but depend upon performence of world economy, hence it is extremely risky to trade in commodities. Commodities market also become more volatile during contract expiry.
These are not a recommendation for buy or sell. This view is only for educational purpose. You are requested to consult your financial advisor before entering in to any trade. Gold Facing Market Storm: Will The Uptrend Continue?The gold market is witnessing strong fluctuations as money flows continuously between safe-haven assets. Gold prices briefly jumped above $3,030/ounce in overnight trading, but profit-taking pressure quickly appeared, pushing prices down to $3,018 this morning. However, the overall trend is still leaning towards the uptrend as supportive factors continue to dominate the market.
Bank of America forecasts that gold could reach an average of $3,063/ounce this year and go further to $3,350/ounce in 2026. The main driving force comes from central banks increasing their gold reserves, especially from China. At the same time, economic instability and strong adjustments in the US stock market are stimulating money flows to precious metals.
On the technical chart, gold is fluctuating in the accumulation zone after the previous strong increase. If the price stays above $3,030 and breaks short-term resistance, the possibility of rising to higher levels is completely possible. However, fluctuations will still occur when investors take advantage of price increases to take short-term profits. Overall, with a solid support foundation from the macro economy, gold still has room to continue its upward momentum in the coming time. US Dollar Index (DXY) – Pre-FOMC Update💥 US Dollar Index (DXY) – Pre-FOMC Update: Expert Analysis and Trading Strategies 💥
In just a few hours, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision and update its economic projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This is a highly anticipated event that will shape trading decisions in the coming weeks. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently fluctuating within the 103.00 - 104.00 range, reflecting investor caution ahead of the critical updates.
1. Interest Rate Decision and Its Impact on DXY
The policy rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. However, the market is more focused on signals about future rate cuts, particularly in 2025.
Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting speech will be the key driver. The market will closely watch for hints on monetary policy, inflation, and the US economic outlook.
If the Fed adopts a hawkish tone (indicating sustained high rates or even further hikes), the DXY could rally strongly. Conversely, a dovish signal could weaken the USD.
2. Technical Analysis of DXY
🔴 Key Support: 103.18
The DXY is currently under pressure at the 103.18 support level. A break below this level could push the index further down to 103.00 or even 102.50.
This is a crucial zone, as failure to hold here would signal continued USD weakness in the short term.
🟢 Major Resistance: 105.00 and 105.57
If the DXY rebounds from current support levels, the next challenges will be the resistance zones at 105.00 and 105.57.
The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages (MA) on the daily chart are also key indicators to watch. A break above these MAs could reinforce the bullish trend.
📉 Short-Term Trend:
On the 4H chart, the DXY is in a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. However, upcoming macroeconomic factors (the rate decision and Powell’s speech) could trigger a reversal or increased volatility.
Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are in neutral territory, suggesting the market is awaiting clearer signals.
3. Trading Strategy Before and After the FOMC Decision
🔍 Before the Fed Announcement:
Caution is key. The market may experience mild fluctuations during the wait. Traders should avoid large positions and wait for clearer signals.
Closely monitor key support and resistance levels: 103.18 (support) and 105.00 (resistance).
🔥 After the Fed Announcement:
Scenario 1: Fed Holds Rates and Signals Hawkish Tone
The DXY could rally strongly, targeting resistance levels at 105.00 and 105.57.
Strategy: Look for buy opportunities when the DXY bounces off support or breaks above resistance.
Scenario 2: Fed Signals a Dovish Tone
The DXY could drop sharply, breaking below 103.18 and heading toward 102.50.
Strategy: Look for sell opportunities when the DXY breaks support or fails to surpass resistance.
Scenario 3: Fed Holds Rates Without Clear Signals
The DXY may continue to fluctuate within the 103.00 - 104.00 range.
Strategy: Trade within the range, using identified support and resistance levels.
4. Advice for Investors and Traders
📊 Risk management: Always set appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels to protect your capital. Post-FOMC volatility can be intense, so prepare mentally and have a solid trading plan.
📰 Stay updated: Keep a close eye on Fed updates and market reactions. Jerome Powell’s speech could create significant trading opportunities.
🛠️ Use technical tools: Combine indicators like RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci to identify precise entry points.
5. Conclusion
Tonight’s FOMC meeting will be a decisive factor for the DXY’s short-term direction. With clear support and resistance levels identified, traders should prepare their strategies to capitalize on market movements.
🚨 Stay tuned for the latest updates on TradingView to ensure you don’t miss any trading opportunities!
Wishing you successful trades and profitable outcomes! 💪💰 
Short
XAU#18: Latest Update: Gold Price Continues Its Upward Journey?💎 💎 💎 OANDA:XAUUSD once again surpassed a new peak. However, there was a slight correction yesterday. So let's analyze whether OANDA:XAUUSD will continue to set a new peak today: 💎 💎 💎
1️⃣ **Fundamental analysis:**
📊Gold exports from Singapore to the US increased dramatically. Gold futures prices on the New York COMEX floor are higher than physical gold prices in London, promoting the flow of gold from other markets into the US to benefit from this difference.
🔴Fed meeting minutes | No rush to cut interest rates, consider slowing down or pausing the balance sheet reduction. Interest rate policy: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged (4.25%-4.50%) and has no plans to cut interest rates soon. The first cut is expected in July or later.
🚀 There is a turning point in the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and investors are betting ahead! Investors are positioning for an early end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict after US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the issue.
📌Overall, we can see that the fundamentals are not supporting the gold price increase. However, the gold price increase is still coming from the uncertainty about US tariff policies and concerns about the weakening economy.
2️⃣ **Technical analysis:**
🔹 **D frame**: the previous day's increase is currently a bit hesitant like yesterday's candle. However, gold is still in a strong uptrend.
🔹 **H4 frame**: the bullish price structure is too clear. We had a slight correction at the end of yesterday but recovered immediately afterwards, showing that market sentiment is still very optimistic about the prospect of gold's increase.
🔹 **H1 frame**: Looking at the chart, everyone can see that H1 is temporarily in a decreasing channel. However, the decreasing structure has not been confirmed. The price can still accumulate and bounce to break the peak at any time
3️⃣ **Trading plan:*
⛔ The current price structure is still supporting the bulls, but we also need to pay attention to important information at this time about the Russia-Ukraine war. If there is official information about the ceasefire agreement, it will cause gold prices to decrease.
✅ Prioritize BUY following the main trend. The target of the 3000 area from previous articles analyzed is very close. You can refer to the plan in the H1 frame to set up a position
💪 **Wish you successful trading!**
