Gold at Key Level Before NFP – Big Move Loading for XAUUSD?📉 Macro-Fundamental Insight
Gold continues to show bullish strength, powered by key global developments:
ADP Job Data Misses Expectations: The latest ADP release reported a -33K decline, sharply below forecast, triggering weakness in the US Dollar and lifting gold as a safe-haven asset.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Outlook: Traders now expect a 90% chance of a rate cut by Q3, supporting gold due to lower yields and weakening USD sentiment.
Trump’s “Super Bill” Momentum: Political unity among US Republicans around fiscal expansion raises concerns over long-term US debt—another factor increasing gold’s appeal globally.
🇮🇳 For Indian traders, these global macro shifts present opportunities to align with Smart Money positions and plan structured trades around high-impact events like NFP.
🧠 Smart Money Technical Breakdown (H1)
Price is currently testing a Premium Fair Value Gap (FVG), right after confirming a Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS).
The region 3,375 – 3,376 is a mid-risk Sell Zone, likely to trigger a short-term rejection.
Structure suggests a liquidity sweep to the downside before any sustained bullish continuation.
📊 Trading Strategy – Key SMC Zones to Monitor
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,334 – 3,333
🔴 Stop-Loss: 3,329
✅ Targets: 3,340 → 3,344 → 3,350 → 3,360
🔵 BUY ZONE (Low Risk): 3,317 – 3,316
🔴 Stop-Loss: 3,311
✅ Targets: 3,320 → 3,325 → 3,330 → 3,336 → 3,345 → 3,350 → 3,360
🔴 SELL SCALP ZONE: 3,375 – 3,376
🔴 Stop-Loss: 3,380
✔️ Targets: 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,360 → 3,355 → 3,350
🔴 SELL ZONE (High Probability): 3,388 – 3,390
🔴 Stop-Loss: 3,394
✔️ Targets: 3,384 → 3,380 → 3,376 → 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,360
📌 Final Notes for Indian Traders:
With NFP and US bank holidays ahead, expect irregular volatility and potential liquidity traps.
All entries follow Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, ideal for short-term and positional scalping strategies.
Watch for key reactions at the premium zones—this is where institutions tend to act.
