Long
GOLD'S FOMC RALLY WAS FAKE... HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS NEXT!So, the upside movement that we were expecting during FOMC is exactly what we got. However, that rally was mainly created to trap random sellers. Gold even managed to break above the 4100 level, trapping everyone who had been selling since Monday or from the 4100 zone. What's even more interesting is that the market reversed almost exactly from Monday's high.
The FOMC rally was so aggressive that many traders who were bearish got scared and closed their sell positions, while others even completely changed their bias from bearish to bullish. But in my opinion, this entire move was nothing more than a liquidity trap. During high-impact news events like FOMC, the market usually attacks the side where the most liquidity is resting. It quickly traps that crowd, and then on the following day, the market often resumes its original direction.
If you notice today's price action, almost 50% of yesterday's FOMC rally has already been erased. If buyers were actually in control, Gold should have found support around the 4070 area and continued higher. Instead, that level has already broken with strong selling volume. Looking at the overall psychology and market structure, sellers are still stronger than buyers, and I still believe Gold is preparing for a much bigger downside move. In my view, the 4000 breakdown is only a matter of time and could happen within the next few sessions.
Now let me explain the reason behind this view along with today's trading plan.
The 4115 level remains one of the strongest resistance zones on the chart. Until Gold manages to close above this level, I don't think traders expecting an immediate breakout toward 4200 will get what they're waiting for.
Another interesting psychological factor is the year's major low around the 3942-3950 area. Every time Gold comes close to this region, it quickly reverses. Because of this repeated behavior, many traders now believe that the next breakdown below 4000 will finally lead to a huge bearish move. As a result, a large number of traders are already preparing for aggressive selling at lower prices.
But here's where psychology becomes important.
Gold doesn't want the majority of traders to participate in the real breakdown. Instead, it keeps changing direction, trapping both sides repeatedly. First, it scares sellers with sharp rallies. Then, once traders start buying based on bullish price action, it traps those buyers as well. Right now, this market is not rewarding textbook price action—it is rewarding patience and understanding of crowd psychology.
Personally, I believe both of these events will eventually happen:
* Gold will break above 4200.
* Gold will also break below 3950.
The only question is when, not if.
And history tells us that the biggest moves usually happen when the majority of traders least expect them. By the time everyone becomes confident about one direction, institutions often do the exact opposite.
Now let's talk about yesterday's NY session.
Gold briefly broke below 4000, but immediately recovered and closed back above this psychological level. That tells us one important thing—many traders entered fresh buy positions around 4000. Since 4000 is a major round number, it's naturally a zone where both buyers and sellers become very aggressive.
At this point, the biggest liquidity pool is still resting around the 4000 level.
Most of the sellers from Monday were already trapped during the FOMC spike. I also don't think many fresh traders sold after seeing such a strong bullish candle. Instead, the majority of retail traders who were waiting for a retracement are now looking at the 4040-4055 area as the perfect buying opportunity. They believe that after such a strong FOMC rally, Gold should simply retrace and continue moving higher—as traditional price action suggests.
But I don't think that's what the market wants to do.
In my opinion, Gold may still give one small upside move to attract even more buyers, but after that, I expect selling pressure to return. My downside target for today remains around 4020, and I still believe that the 4000 breakdown could happen either by tomorrow or early next week. Since this is month-end, I expect Gold to create one final major liquidity trap before revealing its real direction.
Overall, I believe the coming month could offer some excellent trading opportunities, so stay active and don't miss any important updates.
I hope today's Thursday analysis helped you understand not only the market structure but also the psychology behind these moves. Wishing everyone a profitable trading day. Good luck!
👇 What's your view on Gold's next move?
Do you think Gold will break above 4200 first, or will 4000 finally collapse? Let me know your opinion in the comments!
Long 
GOLD XAUUSD Extreme POI Buy Setup–Liquidity Sweep Completed
Gold experienced an aggressive bearish expansion after failing to sustain above the 4,120 region, sweeping sell-side liquidity and driving price directly into the Extreme Point of Interest (POI) around the 4,030–4,040 zone. This area aligns with a previously unmitigated demand zone and represents a high-probability reaction point.
From a market structure perspective, the recent decline appears overextended, suggesting that institutional participants may use this discount level for accumulation. The current candle behavior indicates seller exhaustion, while the liquidity sweep beneath short-term lows increases the probability of a counter-trend move.
A sustained hold above the Extreme POI could trigger a bullish market structure shift (MSS) on the lower timeframes, opening the path toward:
Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals such as engulfing candles, higher lows, or a break of the immediate bearish structure before committing to long positions. As long as price remains above the POI, the risk-to-reward profile continues to favor buyers.
Long 
(XAU/USD) Bulls Loading Up – Demand Zone Holds, Next Breakout ?Market Analysis
The chart presents a bullish market structure for Gold (XAU/USD), with buyers maintaining control after a healthy correction. Price has respected key technical levels, suggesting that the uptrend remains intact as long as the highlighted demand zone continues to hold.
Key Technical Observations
🟢 1. Strong Bullish Market Structure
Gold continues to print higher highs and higher lows, confirming an overall bullish trend.
Every major pullback has been met with strong buying pressure, indicating sustained institutional interest.
🟢 2. Demand Zone Acting as a Launchpad
The highlighted Demand Zone has successfully absorbed selling pressure.
Buyers stepped in aggressively from this area, producing a strong rebound.
As long as price remains above this zone, the bullish outlook remains favorable.
🟢 3. Pivot Points Confirm Buyer Strength
Multiple marked Pivot Points show consistent reactions where buyers regained control.
These higher swing lows demonstrate that bulls are defending increasingly higher price levels.
🔴 4. Previous Breakout Levels
The marked breakout areas represent former resistance where momentum accelerated.
Although one breakout experienced a pullback, the market respected support instead of reversing the overall trend.
🟢 5. Strong Support Zone Below
The green support zone remains the major defensive level for buyers.
A move into this region would likely attract renewed buying interest unless broken with strong bearish momentum.
Bullish Outlook
If Gold continues to hold above the Demand Zone, buyers could attempt another upward expansion toward the projected targets.
Bullish Scenario:
✔️ Hold above Demand Zone.
✔️ Buyers regain momentum.
✔️ Break above recent swing high.
✔️ Continuation toward the first target, followed by the higher target shown on the chart.
Risk Scenario:
A decisive breakdown below the Demand Zone could trigger a deeper correction toward the Strong Support Zone before buyers attempt another recovery.
Conclusion
The overall technical picture remains bullish. The combination of higher lows, respected demand, multiple pivot reactions, and strong support suggests that Gold is preparing for another potential upside move. Traders should monitor the Demand Zone closely, as it remains the key level that could determine whether the next bullish breakout unfolds. Long 
THIS IS WHY 95% OF GOLD TRADERS WILL LOSE TODAYAlmost everyone got trapped this week... and that's exactly what the market wanted.
After Tuesday and Wednesday's rally, most traders became convinced that gold had finally turned bullish. But within just a few hours, the market completely changed the story and wiped out those breakout buyers. The interesting part is that this wasn't a random sell-off. It was a planned institutional move, and if you understand the psychology behind yesterday's fall, you'll also understand where gold is most likely heading next.
In my previous analysis, I clearly explained why I remained bearish despite the bullish price action earlier this week. Yesterday's move played out almost exactly as expected, and I hope everyone who followed the analysis in detail managed to capitalize on the selling opportunity. Personally, I also entered from a very good area and locked in a solid profit.
Now the biggest question is... was yesterday's sell-off the beginning of a larger bearish move, or is the market preparing one final trap before the weekend? Let's break down today's Friday trading plan and the psychology behind every possible scenario.
So, after yesterday's strong selling pressure, gold has started consolidating near the lower zone. At the moment, we're not seeing any aggressive downside continuation, nor are we seeing strong buying momentum. This is completely normal after such a large move.
The reason is simple. Traders who missed yesterday's move usually try to enter either late or on the following day, expecting the same momentum to continue. But the market rarely rewards late participants. Instead, it intentionally slows down, spends time in consolidation, and creates frustration before the next meaningful move.
Think about it. After yesterday's sharp sell-off, many traders probably entered fresh sell positions today simply because they saw the bearish momentum. At the same time, when gold bounced from around $4040 during the New York session yesterday, many bullish traders likely started buying, believing that the entire decline was only a temporary correction and that gold would soon resume its uptrend.
In my opinion, that's the wrong way to look at the market.
First, look at the price action itself. Yesterday's selling wasn't just a random decline. It was a valid institutional sell-off. During that move, the market completely liquidated the breakout buyers who entered on Tuesday and Wednesday after seeing the higher-low breakout. That tells us the selling wasn't driven by retail traders. It was driven by bigger players. Because of that, the overall institutional bias still appears bearish.
One thing I always watch is whether a sharp move is supported by liquidity sitting on the left side of the chart. If liquidity exists, I consider that move valid.
For example, during Tuesday and Wednesday we saw an explosive upside rally. That move was mainly designed to attract buyers. Once traders saw the higher-low breakout and what looked like a break of structure, they naturally shifted their bias to the bullish side and started buying aggressively.
But Thursday completely changed the picture.
The sudden sell-off caught almost everyone by surprise because the market structure earlier in the week looked bullish. Most traders simply weren't prepared for such aggressive selling. That's exactly why institutional players were able to use those trapped buyers as liquidity before booking profits. The real move wasn't Tuesday's rally. The real move was Thursday's sell-off because that's where the liquidity was finally taken.
Later, I'll explain in more detail how to identify the difference between a real move and a fake move because understanding that psychology is one of the biggest advantages a trader can have.
Now let's move to today's trading plan.
My expectation is that gold may first break below yesterday's low around $4040, with a possible extension toward the $4034-$4030 area.
If that happens, traders who already sold during the Asian session, along with those who entered late near yesterday's close, will become even more confident. Many of them will likely add more short positions, expecting the market to continue falling.
However, this is exactly where you need to stay careful.
Today's structure is forming right before the weekend, and Fridays often create emotional traps instead of clean trends. Once $4040 breaks, more sellers will likely jump into the market. After attracting those emotional sellers, market makers could easily reverse the price to trap them.
That's why I wouldn't be surprised if gold later breaks above the Asian session high around $4051.
The reason is simple. $4050 is also a minor psychological level, and the market has already respected it as resistance during the Asian session. Many sellers have likely entered around that area with their stop losses placed just above it. A temporary move above $4051 would be the perfect way to trigger those stop losses before the market settles again.
If such a move happens, treat it strictly as an intraday opportunity. Book profits quickly instead of trying to hold positions throughout the day because, in my opinion, after a few sharp intraday swings, the market is more likely to spend the rest of the session moving sideways.
I'm not expecting an exceptionally strong upside or another massive downside trend today.
That said, my overall bias remains bearish as long as gold stays below $4076. Keep that level in mind throughout today's session.
I hope this Friday market analysis helps you prepare for today's trading session. Wishing everyone the best of luck on the final trading day of the week. Trade patiently, manage your risk, and hopefully you'll finish the week in profit.
What's your trading plan for Friday? Let me know in the comments.
XAU/USD Holding Strong – Demand Zone Signals the Next Bullish 📊 Technical Analysis
The overall market structure remains bullish, with price consistently forming higher highs and higher lows after rebounding from the strong support zone. Each previous breakout was followed by a healthy retracement, allowing buyers to re-enter the market before continuing the upward trend.
The highlighted Demand Zone has once again proven its importance. After breaking above this area, Gold pulled back to retest it, where buyers stepped in aggressively. This successful retest strengthens the probability that the demand zone will continue acting as a launching pad for the next bullish wave.
The repeated Pivot Points shown on the chart indicate that every major correction has been followed by renewed buying pressure, suggesting that institutional participants continue to accumulate positions during pullbacks.
🔥 Bullish Signals
✅ Price is holding firmly above the key demand zone.
✅ Previous resistance has successfully flipped into support.
✅ Higher highs and higher lows confirm a healthy bullish trend.
✅ Strong buying reaction from every marked pivot point.
✅ Market structure favors trend continuation rather than reversal.
🎯 Potential Price Scenario
If Gold continues to hold above the highlighted demand zone, buyers are likely to regain momentum and push price toward the first target, followed by the second upside target marked on the chart. A clean breakout above the recent swing high would further confirm bullish continuation and could attract additional buying interest.
However, a decisive close below the demand zone would weaken the bullish outlook and may lead to a deeper correction before the next directional move.
⚠️ Risk Management
Even in a strong uptrend, disciplined trading is essential.
Wait for bullish confirmation before entering.
Place stop-loss orders below the demand zone or recent swing low.
Avoid chasing extended candles after sharp rallies.
Manage position size according to your trading plan.
💡 Conclusion
Gold is showing a textbook bullish structure, with buyers successfully defending a crucial demand zone after multiple breakout confirmations. As long as this support remains intact, the path of least resistance appears to be higher. A breakout above the recent high could pave the way for a fresh bullish leg toward the projected targets. Long 
Bullish Breakout & Demand Zone Retest | High-Probability?🔍 Market Structure Analysis
The chart begins with a series of well-defined pivot points, where buyers repeatedly stepped into the market to defend price. Each successful defense created confidence among market participants while gradually weakening sellers.
As price approached resistance multiple times, every rejection became smaller than the previous one. This indicates that selling pressure was fading while buyers continued to absorb supply.
Eventually, the market gained enough momentum to break above the resistance, confirming a Bullish Break of Structure (BOS). This shift signals that market control has transitioned from sellers to buyers.
🟢 Pivot Points – The Foundation of the Trend
The highlighted pivot points represent the areas where institutional buyers entered the market.
Why are they important?
They reveal where demand consistently overwhelmed supply.
Every pivot created higher buying interest.
They established a sequence of higher reactions, proving buyers were becoming increasingly aggressive.
These zones served as the launching pads for the next bullish impulse.
Each pivot is evidence that the market respected support before preparing for the breakout.
🚀 Multiple Breakout Attempts – Building Pressure
Rather than breaking resistance immediately, the market tested it several times.
This behavior is extremely significant because:
Every breakout attempt consumed more sell orders.
Sellers gradually lost control.
Buyers continued accumulating positions.
Resistance weakened with every test.
When resistance was finally broken, it wasn't a random move—it was the result of sustained buying pressure built over time.
🔵 Demand Zone – The Institutional Entry Area
After the breakout, price returned to the highlighted Demand Zone.
This retest is one of the strongest confirmations in technical analysis because it demonstrates that:
Previous resistance has transformed into new support.
Institutions often revisit these areas to add positions.
Weak hands exit during the pullback.
Strong buyers defend the zone before continuing higher.
A successful retest confirms that the breakout is genuine rather than a false move.
📊 Price Action Psychology
The chart perfectly illustrates market psychology.
Stage 1: Buyers quietly accumulate near support.
Stage 2: Resistance is tested repeatedly, reducing selling pressure.
Stage 3: A strong breakout traps late sellers.
Stage 4: Price revisits the breakout area.
Stage 5: Buyers defend demand.
Stage 6: Momentum resumes toward higher targets.
This sequence reflects how professional traders build positions before major market moves.
🎯 Bullish Outlook
As long as price remains above the highlighted Demand Zone, the overall market structure remains bullish.
The current setup suggests:
✅ Buyers are defending higher prices.
✅ Market structure favors continuation.
✅ The breakout has already been confirmed.
✅ Demand remains intact.
If buying momentum continues, the market is likely to advance toward the projected target levels shown on the chart.
⚠️ Risk Management
Every trading setup has an invalidation point.
The bullish scenario remains valid only while price holds above the Demand Zone.
A decisive close below this zone would indicate:
Buyers are losing strength.
The breakout has failed.
Price may revisit the Strong Support Zone before another attempt higher.
Professional traders always protect capital by respecting invalidation levels.
💡 Key Takeaways
✔ Strong institutional support established the bullish foundation.
✔ Multiple breakout attempts weakened resistance.
✔ A confirmed Break of Structure shifted market control to buyers.
✔ The demand zone now acts as the primary buying area.
✔ A successful retest increases the probability of bullish continuation.
✔ Holding above demand keeps the path open toward higher targets. Long 
XAUUSD — Demand Retest Buy SetupGold is trading around $4,119 after breaking above the descending trendline and expanding strongly from the structural low near $3,960. The impulsive move confirms that buyers are controlling the short-term structure.
Price is currently extended after reaching the projected wave (3) area. The preferred opportunity is a controlled pullback into the Immediate Demand zone at $4,040.690–$4,059.126 before the next potential bullish expansion.
SMC View
The trendline breakout and strong displacement indicate a clear structural shift from correction into bullish continuation. The Immediate Demand zone represents the origin of the latest impulsive move and remains the main decision area for buyers.
Entering near the current price would mean chasing an extended move. A retracement into demand, followed by bullish rejection and a lower-timeframe MSS or CHOCH, would provide stronger confirmation that buyers remain in control.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the $4,040.690–$4,059.126 Immediate Demand zone and forms a clear bullish rejection. A lower-timeframe bullish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,040.690–$4,059.126 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below $4,040.690 and the reaction low
TP1: $4,130–$4,135
TP2: $4,168–$4,177
TP3: $4,193–$4,202
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,119
Immediate Demand: $4,040.690–$4,059.126
HTF Supply: $4,168–$4,177
Major Supply: $4,193–$4,202
Invalidation: Acceptance below $4,040.690
Confirmation: Bullish rejection with MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The buy bias remains valid while Gold protects the $4,040.690–$4,059.126 Immediate Demand zone. The preferred plan is to wait for a confirmed pullback rather than chase the current expansion.
If buyers defend demand, price could continue toward the HTF Supply and potentially the Major Supply above. Acceptance below $4,040.690 would weaken the bullish setup.
No confirmation, no trade. Long 
XAUUSD — Bullish FVG Retest Setup
Market Context
Gold is trading around $4,063 after breaking the short-term structure and printing a bullish BOS above the $4,040 area. The recovery followed an earlier MSS from the lower boundary of the descending channel, showing that buyers are gaining control of the intraday structure.
Price is now approaching the old high liquidity at $4,073.649. Rather than chasing the current move, the cleaner opportunity would be a controlled pullback into the Bullish FVG around $4,020–$4,028, where displaced price action could provide support.
SMC View
The MSS marked the first shift away from the previous bearish sequence, while the recent BOS confirmed bullish continuation. The Bullish FVG below price is the main decision zone because it represents the imbalance created during the breakout.
A retracement into this area would allow price to rebalance before targeting the liquidity above. Buyer control should be confirmed through bullish rejection followed by a lower-timeframe MSS, CHOCH or a clean reclaim of the FVG.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the $4,020–$4,028 Bullish FVG and forms a clear bullish rejection. A lower-timeframe bullish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,020–$4,028 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below $4,000 and the FVG reaction low
TP1: $4,073.649
TP2: $4,103.844
TP3: $4,135.068
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,063
Bullish FVG: $4,020–$4,028
Old high liquidity: $4,073.649
Internal high: $4,103.844
Main target: $4,135.068
Invalidation: Acceptance below $4,000
Confirmation: Bullish rejection with MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The buy bias remains valid while Gold holds above the Bullish FVG and maintains the recent BOS. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into $4,020–$4,028 rather than chase price near the first liquidity target.
If buyers defend the FVG, price could expand toward $4,073.649, followed by $4,103.844 and $4,135.068. Acceptance below $4,000 would weaken the current bullish setup.
No confirmation, no trade. Long 
READ THIS BEFORE YOU TAKE YOUR NEXT GOLD TRADEWhat if this breakout isn't the beginning of a new bull run, but the biggest trap of the week?
Tuesday played out almost exactly as I expected. Gold delivered a strong one-sided buying move and successfully broke above the $4045-$4062 decision zone, officially ending the bearish Lower High & Lower Low structure that had been in place since July 5th.
But does a Break of Structure really mean the bulls are now in control, or is the market simply attracting breakout buyers before making its next move?
Let's dive into today's market psychology and see what the market makers could be planning next.
On the 4H timeframe, I had already marked the bearish structure. Since July 5th, Gold had consistently been creating Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Because of that structure, most traders expected another Lower High followed by a continuation of the bearish trend this week.
However, from a psychological perspective, that scenario was becoming too obvious, which is exactly why I believed it was likely to fail.
As mentioned in my previous two analyses, I expected Gold to break one of the previous Lower Highs this week, and that's exactly what happened. The breakout above the previous Lower High officially confirmed a Break of Structure (BOS), ending the bearish sequence that had controlled the market for weeks.
After yesterday's continued upside movement, most sellers became trapped. Even today, sellers have been fighting aggressively, but every continuation move higher has trapped more and more short positions.
From my experience, this looks more like a stop-loss hunting phase than the beginning of a strong bullish trend.
As price continued moving higher without any meaningful pullbacks, the market forced sellers to cover their positions while simultaneously attracting random breakout buyers.
Since Gold has now broken both the previous Lower High around $4103 and the important psychological level of $4100, many traders entered long positions immediately without waiting for any retest or confirmation.
The question now is whether the market will reward those breakout buyers or use them as liquidity before making its next move.
For now, the $4083-$4103 zone remains the key support area.
As long as Gold continues holding above this zone and any retracement remains above it, I still prefer looking for buying opportunities.
However, my advice is simple.
Do not chase the market higher.
Gold has already produced an excellent one-sided rally since yesterday. Entering after such a strong move usually means becoming a late buyer, which significantly increases the risk of getting trapped during a pullback or consolidation.
Instead, wait patiently for a retracement into the key support zone. If buyers continue defending that area, buying opportunities become much more attractive.
My upside target remains the $4143-$4163 area.
I believe that just as Gold successfully broke above the previous Lower High near $4103, it will most likely also break above the second Lower High near $4138 to attract even more buyers into the market.
Before reaching that level, we may see a small selling move around $4138 or slightly below it to encourage fresh sellers to enter.
After trapping those sellers, the market could reverse higher once again, convincing everyone that buyers are fully in control and that every breakout should be bought.
This is exactly how market makers build liquidity.
However, the $4143-$4163 zone is a very important resistance area.
From there, I expect either a sharp downside move after trapping the late buyers or a deeper pullback toward the previous Lower High to fool price action traders into believing it's only a healthy retest before the market resumes selling.
That is the overall game plan I currently expect market makers to follow.
My trading plan for today is straightforward.
As long as Gold remains above $4103, I will look to capture small buying scalps whenever short-term selling pressure appears instead of chasing the rally.
Once price reaches my target zone of $4143-$4163, I will switch to a wait-and-watch approach.
Just like yesterday, when I expected consolidation around $4045-$4063 before planning my next trade, I will follow the same approach here. I'll wait for confirmation inside the $4143-$4163 zone before making my next decision because patience and confirmation are what create high-probability trades.
I hope today's psychological analysis gave you a logical understanding of what the market is doing behind the scenes and helped you learn something valuable.
As always, trade only after confirmation and maintain proper risk management so you can consistently protect your capital and maximize your profits.
Wishing everyone a profitable trading day.
What's your next view on Gold?
Let me know in the comments. I'd love to hear your perspective.
Long 
READ THIS BEFORE YOU BUY OR SELL GOLD TODAY!> ⚠️ I believe 90% of Gold traders are about to make the same mistake today. The chart looks obvious, the trend looks clear, and that's exactly why I think the market is preparing a psychological trap. Before you buy or sell Gold, spend the next few minutes reading this analysis carefully. If my theory plays out, today's move won't just trap early sellers—it could completely confuse both buyers and sellers before the real trend resumes.
As per my Monday analysis, the exact plan of action we were expecting is what the market delivered. The structure I had drawn played out almost perfectly, and the upside movement I expected from the $3981 level happened as anticipated. I hope everyone had a great trading day yesterday.
Now let's talk about the plan for Tuesday. Make sure you read this psychological analysis carefully because it will not only help you understand what could happen next in Gold but also improve your overall market psychology and learning.
Gold has now formed a potential lower high around $4040. However, the most important question is whether this is a genuine lower high or simply another psychological trap. Let's break it down.
The bullish Monday that we expected played out mainly because of the 4H timeframe structure, which I discussed in my weekly analysis. Since 6th July, Gold has been following a very clean bearish market structure. If you look at the 4H chart, you can clearly see a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. So far, this structure remains completely intact. There has been no break of structure and no obvious bullish trap yet.
Because of this, most price action traders have naturally started selling after seeing the latest lower high. They are expecting the bearish trend to continue, which is a logical conclusion based on the current structure.
However, I believe the market will trap these sellers before continuing lower. Instead of dropping immediately, I think Gold will first create confusion among price action traders by giving the appearance of a bullish break of structure. This move would attract fresh buyers while forcing early sellers out of their positions. Once enough liquidity has been created, I expect Gold to resume its bearish trend with a sharp downside move.
So my plan is very simple. I want to see Monday's high get broken. I want the market to break above the most recent lower high within the bearish structure. That breakout would deliver the first shock to sellers while attracting aggressive buyers. After that, I expect some consolidation before a strong bearish decline, most likely during the later part of the US session or around the Asian session open tomorrow.
The overall trend is still bearish. There is absolutely no doubt about that. The only thing I am expecting before the next leg down is a psychological trap that forces confident sellers out of the market before the trend continues.
Now let's discuss my exact plan for Tuesday.
Monday's high was around $4040, and after today's Asian session opened, Gold faced resistance near $4036 before attempting a small pullback. In my opinion, this was simply the market's first attempt to invite more sellers during the Asian session. The structure still looks bearish, so many traders have already entered fresh sell positions with their stop losses placed above Monday's high.
Personally, I still expect one more upside move. I believe Gold could sweep Monday's high before reversing. After that sweep, I expect price to decline toward the $4014-$4017 zone. From there, I believe we could see strong buying interest throughout the day.
Why do I expect a sweep of Monday's high before the reversal?
Because the early sellers have already entered with stop losses above $4040. If Monday's high gets taken out, all of those stop losses will be triggered. Once they see the market reverse again, many of them will emotionally re-enter their sell positions, often with even larger position sizes to recover their previous losses. That creates even more liquidity for the market.
This is something we often see in Gold. After stop losses are hunted, traders jump back into the same direction, believing they are getting a better entry. Many even increase their risk, hoping to recover losses and catch a bigger move. But before their targets are reached, the market reverses again and traps them even more aggressively.
I believe something very similar could happen today.
If the market rejects Monday's high after sweeping it, price action traders will become even more confident in the bearish structure. They will see the rejection as confirmation and continue adding to their short positions. Most of them will likely target $4000 or even last week's low.
However, I don't think Tuesday will be a straightforward selling day. Instead, I believe the market will first create the psychological trap I explained above. Gold could spend most of the day moving higher, creating confusion for both buyers and sellers, before revealing its real bearish move once the majority of traders become trapped.
I hope you enjoyed today's psychological analysis and found the logic behind it useful. More importantly, I hope this analysis helped you understand how market psychology works behind price movement.
Trade wisely, manage your risk properly, and always prioritize good money management over chasing profits.
Good luck, everyone!
What's your view on Gold? Let me know in the comments.
MASON XAUUSD – Key Support And Resistance SetupXAUUSD is trading around 4,010 after recovering from the lower support area, but price is still moving below the main descending trendline. The short-term reaction shows buyers are defending the support zone, but the broader structure still needs confirmation before a stronger bullish move can be trusted.
The priority plan is to trade from strong support and resistance zones, with sell pressure still favoured if gold rejects from the upper Fibonacci resistance areas.
Technical View
Gold is currently trading below the descending trendline, which means the market is still under short-term bearish pressure. Even though price has reacted from the lower area, the recovery remains corrective while gold stays below the trendline and key resistance zones.
The 3,991–3,997 area is the main buy zone on the chart. This zone aligns with the Fibonacci 50 reaction area and sits above the 3,982 support. If gold pulls back into this area and holds, a short-term bullish reaction may appear.
However, the upside still has two important resistance zones. The first one is the 4,051–4,055 sell scalping FVG zone. This area may create the first bearish reaction if price recovers from the buy zone.
The stronger resistance is around 4,078–4,085, marked as the sell zone and Fibonacci 50 area. This zone is important because it aligns with the previous structure, Fibonacci resistance, and the descending trendline region. If gold reaches this zone and rejects, it may confirm another lower high before price turns down again.
The 3,982 level is the key support. If gold loses this level, the bullish reaction becomes weak, and price may move back toward the stronger support range around 3,960–3,970.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,010
Main buy zone: 3,991–3,997
Key support: 3,982
Strong support: 3,960–3,970
Sell scalping FVG zone: 4,051–4,055
Major sell zone: 4,078–4,085
Descending trendline resistance: 4,055–4,085
Invalidation for sell view: above 4,085
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,051–4,055
Condition: wait for bearish rejection, failed breakout above the FVG zone, or price staying below the descending trendline.
SL: above 4,085
TP1: 3,991–3,997
TP2: 3,982
TP3: 3,960–3,970
Alternative Sell Scenario
If gold pushes higher into 4,078–4,085, wait for a clear bearish rejection from this major resistance zone before looking for sell continuation. This would be the stronger resistance-based sell setup.
SL: above 4,095
TP1: 4,051–4,055
TP2: 3,991–3,997
TP3: 3,982
Buy View
Buy is possible only as a short-term reaction from the 3,991–3,997 zone or near 3,982 support. The condition is clear bullish rejection, price holding above support, and a lower-timeframe higher low formation.
Buy Zone: 3,991–3,997
SL: below 3,982
TP1: 4,051–4,055
TP2: 4,078–4,085
Final View
Overall, gold is reacting from support, but the market has not broken the descending trendline yet. The cleaner plan is to wait for price to reach the strong decision zones. A reaction from 3,991–3,997 may support a short-term buy, while rejection from 4,051–4,055 or 4,078–4,085 keeps the bearish structure active.
Will gold hold the 3,991–3,997 support zone and recover, or reject from resistance and return toward 3,982?
Long 
XAUUSD — Key Entry Zones Around OB and FVG
Gold is trading around $3,998 after recovering slightly from the lower Buy zone OB around $3,980–$3,985. The short-term reaction shows that buyers are trying to defend this demand area, but the overall structure is still not fully bullish because price remains below the upper OB and FVG supply zones.
From an SMC perspective, gold recently created bearish BOS and continued to trade below the previous structure. The current bounce from the lower OB looks more like a reaction from liquidity rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. This means the buy zone can be used for short-term reaction, but the stronger decision areas are still above, especially around $4,038–$4,041 and the FVG zone near $4,051–$4,058.
The main plan is to wait for price to react clearly around the marked zones. Buying near the lower OB is only valid with confirmation, while selling near the upper OB or FVG remains the cleaner setup if sellers defend those areas.
Buy scalping setup
Condition:
Gold holds the Buy zone OB around $3,980–$3,985 and forms bullish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $3,980–$3,985
SL: below $3,970
TP1: $4,000
TP2: $4,020
TP3: $4,038–$4,041
Sell setup 1
Condition:
Gold recovers into the OB sell zone around $4,038–$4,041 and forms bearish rejection.
Entry: $4,038–$4,041
SL: above $4,058
TP1: $4,020
TP2: $4,000
TP3: $3,980–$3,985
Sell setup 2
Condition:
If gold pushes higher into the FVG zone around $4,051–$4,058 and fails to break above it, this can create a stronger sell setup.
Entry: $4,051–$4,058 after rejection
SL: above $4,075
TP1: $4,038–$4,041
TP2: $4,000
TP3: $3,980–$3,985
TP4: $3,960
Sell setup 3
Condition:
If gold breaks cleanly below the Buy zone OB and retests it as resistance, bearish continuation becomes active.
Entry: below $3,980 after breakdown retest
SL: above $4,000
TP1: $3,970
TP2: $3,960
TP3: $3,942
Key levels
Current price area: $3,998
Buy zone OB: $3,980–$3,985
Short-term reaction area: $4,000–$4,020
OB sell zone: $4,038–$4,041
FVG sell zone: $4,051–$4,058
Bearish continuation level: below $3,980
Lower target: $3,960
Major lower liquidity: $3,942
Bullish scalp confirmation: clean reaction above $3,985
Sell confirmation: bearish rejection from $4,038–$4,058
Bearish invalidation: clean 2H close above $4,075
My current view is that gold can react from the lower Buy zone OB, but the main structure is still fragile. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid entering in the middle and only look for trades around the marked zones: short-term buy from $3,980–$3,985 if confirmed, or sell from $4,038–$4,041 and $4,051–$4,058 if sellers reject strongly. If gold loses $3,980 cleanly, the bearish path toward $3,960 and $3,942 becomes active again.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
XAU/USD: Bearish Retest at Resistance ?Gold remains under bearish pressure on the 1H timeframe, with price respecting a descending trendline and trading below the higher-timeframe resistance. The recent rally appears to be a corrective move into a supply zone rather than the beginning of a new uptrend.
Technical Overview
📉 Overall market structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows.
🔴 Price is testing a strong resistance/supply zone around 4,070–4,090, aligning with the descending trendline.
⚠️ A previous CHoCH triggered a short-term bullish correction, but buyers failed to establish a higher high.
☁️ Price is trading around the Ichimoku Cloud, showing indecision. A rejection from the cloud would strengthen the bearish continuation scenario.
📊 Volume increased during the recent rally, but follow-through buying remains weak, suggesting potential distribution.
Bearish Scenario
The ideal setup is to wait for confirmation inside the highlighted resistance zone.
Entry: Rejection from 4,070–4,090 after bearish confirmation.
Targets:
🎯 TP1: 4,020 (first intraday support)
🎯 TP2: 3,985–3,990 (major demand zone)
🎯 Extended Target: If sellers gain momentum, price could continue lower toward the next liquidity pool.
Invalidation
A sustained break and close above the descending trendline and 4,090 resistance would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and could trigger a move toward 4,120+.
Trading Plan
✅ Wait for bearish confirmation (engulfing candle, lower high, or market structure break).
✅ Avoid chasing the move before rejection is confirmed.
✅ Manage risk carefully and let the market confirm direction.
Key Levels
🔴 Resistance: 4,070–4,090
📉 Trendline Resistance: Dynamic descending trendline
🔵 Support (TP1): 4,020
🟦 Major Demand: 3,985–3,990
❌ Invalidation: Above 4,090
Conclusion:
Gold is approaching a critical confluence zone where the descending trendline, horizontal resistance, and prior liquidity meet. Unless buyers reclaim this area with strong momentum, the probability favors another bearish leg toward the marked support and demand zones.
💬 What do you expect next—rejection from resistance or a breakout above the trendline? MASON XAUUSD – Bullish Setup Above 4,012 Buy Zone
XAUUSD is trading around 4,036 after forming a short-term base above the 4,012 buy order zone. Price is still below the descending trendline, but the current structure shows that buyers are trying to defend the lower support area.
The priority view is bullish recovery, as long as gold holds above 4,012 and breaks the 4,065 resistance with clear confirmation.
Technical View
Gold is currently moving inside a short-term corrective structure after the previous bearish move. However, the selling pressure is slowing down around the 4,012 buy order zone, where price has started to build a stronger reaction base.
The 4,012 area is the most important support on this chart. If gold pulls back into this zone and holds, it may confirm a higher low before the next bullish leg. This would support the idea that buyers are preparing for a recovery move.
The descending trendline is still acting as the main resistance. Price needs to break above this trendline and the 4,065 resistance level to confirm stronger bullish momentum. Without this breakout, the recovery may remain limited.
The 4,065 level is the first key resistance. A clean breakout and retest above this level may open the way toward the 4,119 sell order resistance zone. This is the main upside target marked on the chart.
If buyers continue to control the structure above 4,065, gold may extend higher toward the Fibonacci resistance area above 4,119. But the first important step is still confirmation above the trendline.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,036
Main buy order zone: 4,012–4,020
Short-term support: 4,020–4,030
Breakout resistance: 4,065
Descending trendline resistance: 4,060–4,070
Sell order resistance: 4,119–4,125
Higher Fibonacci target: 4,145–4,160
Invalidation: below 3,980
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,012–4,020
Condition: wait for bullish rejection, higher low formation, or price holding above the buy order zone before looking for continuation.
SL: below 3,980
TP1: 4,065
TP2: 4,119–4,125
TP3: 4,145–4,160
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks above 4,065 directly, wait for a retest of this level as support before looking for buy continuation toward 4,119. A clean hold above 4,065 would confirm that the short-term recovery is gaining strength.
Sell View
Sell is not the priority while price holds above 4,012. A short-term sell reaction may appear around 4,065 or 4,119, but it should only be treated as a correction unless gold breaks below 3,980.
Final View
Overall, gold is still below the descending trendline, but the price action around 4,012 shows that buyers are defending the market. The cleaner plan is to wait for price to hold the buy order zone or break above 4,065. If confirmation appears, the bullish path toward 4,119 and 4,145 remains in focus.
Will gold hold the 4,012 buy zone and break the trendline, or retest the lower support first before the next bullish move?
Long 
THE CALM BEFORE THE GOLD BLOODBATH?Throughout this entire week, Gold repeatedly attempted to close above $4087, but failed every single time. From Monday to Wednesday, we did witness several impulsive buying moves, yet every rally into the $4087 region was met with strong rejection. This clearly tells us that sellers are still in control around that level and that institutional buyers are not showing enough interest to support a sustained breakout.
Because of that, I believe a very attractive selling opportunity is developing over the next few sessions. So make sure you read this analysis carefully, because it could help you lock in a high-probability trade with me.
This week, the $4030-$4065 zone has become the main battlefield between buyers and sellers. So far, the market has failed to break below this range, but it has also failed to break above $4065. Price is simply consolidating while both sides continue fighting for control.
The most important question now is, who will win this battle? Buyers or sellers?
One thing you should always remember is that whenever the market spends a long time consolidating in one area, it means a large number of orders are building there. Once that consolidation finally breaks, the market usually delivers a very strong move in the direction of the breakout.
I have been closely watching Gold over the past three days, and according to my analysis, if the bulls were truly strong, the market should have already closed above $4080. Instead, every time price approached that level, sellers stepped in aggressively and rejected the move. Even after several strong buying pushes from the lows, sellers continued to absorb all of that demand.
To me, this is a clear sign that the sellers are currently stronger than the buyers.
Another important observation comes from Tuesday's CPI move. If you look at the 4-hour candle that formed during the CPI release, its low has still not been broken. Instead, Gold has continued retracing higher and repeatedly attempted to move back into buying territory.
After a strong impulsive move, many traders naturally assume the market is only retracing before continuing higher. As a result, they begin buying while treating the origin of that move as a strong support zone, placing their stop losses just below it.
Keeping that psychology in mind, I believe the low of the CPI 4-hour candle, which is around $4014, has become an important liquidity zone. As long as Gold remains above this level, the market can continue attracting more buyers.
However, the moment Gold breaks below $4010, I expect a highly aggressive selling move that could push the market directly toward $3977, $3944, $3920, $3908, and eventually $3890.
The reason is simple.
As you can clearly see, Gold has repeatedly found support around the $3950 region, meaning a significant amount of buy-side stop losses are likely resting below that area. On top of that, Monday's session managed to close above $4000, which encouraged many random retail traders to enter long positions. Most of those traders are still holding their buys with hope.
Based on how Gold has behaved throughout this year, the market has consistently moved toward the side where the largest pool of liquidity was waiting. Looking at the structure formed over the past few weeks, I still consider the overall trend to be bearish.
Most importantly, we have not yet received a valid higher-timeframe buying confirmation.
Yes, buying pressure has appeared several times, but notice when those aggressive buying moves occurred. They mainly happened during high-impact news events. In my opinion, those spikes were strong enough to create FOMO and attract random buyers into the market, while the broader trend remained unchanged.
For that reason, I have no interest in buying Gold unless we see a daily close above $4080.
Until that happens, I will continue looking for selling opportunities and prefer holding positions for larger downside targets because I strongly believe that a major bearish move in Gold is approaching.
I hope you found this psychological analysis logical and that it helped you understand the market from a different perspective. Wishing everyone the very best for Thursday. I hope you all have a profitable trading day.
What is your current view on Gold?
Do you think buyers will finally break above $4080, or are sellers about to take full control?
Let me know your opinion in the comments.
EVERYONE IS BUYING GOLD AGAIN... BUT SHOULD THEY?After Monday's massive sell-off, we witnessed an almost complete recovery in Gold on Tuesday. There is no doubt that the market completely ignored classic price action. Monday's selling volume was extremely strong, and under normal market conditions, Gold should have continued lower after a minor retracement. Instead, we saw a sharp upside spike driven entirely by the CPI news. In my opinion, this was a clear news-driven manipulation rather than a genuine change in trend.
The real question now is: Will Gold continue higher from here, or will the overall bearish trend resume? Let's break down the market psychology in detail so you can have a clear trading plan for the coming sessions.
### 📉 The Overall Market Structure Is Still Bearish
The first thing that stands out to me is the strong bearish market structure that has been developing since last week. If you look carefully at the chart, you'll notice that Gold continues to maintain a bearish structure by respecting its lower highs. Despite several strong bullish rallies, the market has failed to produce any meaningful structural breakout. Every upside move has eventually been rejected, and the bearish framework remains intact.
Most importantly, Gold has not broken any significant lower high yet. As long as that remains the case, sellers continue to control the higher time-frame structure.
I know many traders became bullish after Tuesday's CPI rally because, according to traditional price action, such a strong bullish candle often suggests continuation. But remember what happened on Monday. We witnessed an extremely aggressive selling session, yet instead of continuing lower immediately, Tuesday completely reversed because of the news. That alone tells us that recent price action has been heavily influenced by liquidity and news events rather than clean technical structure.
### 🧠 Understanding the Psychology Behind This Week
From a psychological perspective, I believe the market had a very specific objective at the beginning of this week.
The first target was the liquidity resting below the $4000 psychological level. Many traders entered long positions from the bottom and placed their stop losses below that area. Monday's gap-down opening followed by aggressive selling successfully washed out those buyers.
After Monday's collapse, most retail traders naturally turned bearish. Many jumped into fresh sell positions expecting further downside continuation.
Then Tuesday's CPI news arrived.
The market used that event to trigger a powerful upside rally, trapping almost every random seller who entered after Monday's decline. Now the situation has completely reversed once again. After seeing Tuesday's bullish candle, many traders have become bullish again and are expecting a full trend reversal.
The question is... is this really the beginning of a new uptrend, or is it simply another liquidity trap?
### ⚠️ Why I Still Prefer Selling
Personally, I continue to respect the existing market structure, and because of that, I don't believe Gold is ready for a sustained bullish continuation.
If we analyze Tuesday's rally carefully, Wednesday has already retraced nearly 50% of that entire move. That tells me sellers are still equally strong.
If buyers were truly in control, Gold should have held above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $4058 and continued pushing higher. Instead, the market failed to sustain above that level, showing that buying momentum remains weak.
I believe many traders who wanted to buy on Monday regained confidence after Tuesday's CPI rally. The market may have intentionally created this bullish sentiment simply to attract fresh buyers and generate additional liquidity before moving lower again.
That is exactly why my primary focus remains on selling opportunities.
Tuesday's CPI rally likely attracted a large number of random buyers above the $4000 psychological level. This is extremely important because $4000 is one of the strongest psychological numbers in Gold, where both buyers and sellers actively participate. As a result, a significant amount of liquidity is now resting around that zone, and I believe market makers are watching it very closely.
### 🎯 My Trading Plan For Wednesday
My plan is very straightforward.
I will continue focusing on selling opportunities.
My first expectation is that the market will target the stop losses of traders who are still holding buy positions below the Asian session lows.
After that, I expect the green support levels marked on my chart to produce small temporary buying reactions. These short-term bounces could easily convince traders that a reversal has started, attracting even more buyers.
However, I believe those rallies will simply become opportunities to build additional liquidity before another leg lower.
In my opinion, Gold is likely to continue moving in a zig-zag fashion while gradually creating more downside pressure.
The most important level for me is $4011.
Once Gold manages to close below $4011, I expect a much stronger selling wave to begin. With so much liquidity resting around the $4000 psychological area, that breakdown could trigger panic selling across the market.
### 📌 Final Thoughts
My trading rule remains very simple.
Until Gold clearly shows a confirmed change in market structure, I will not become bullish—no matter how strong any short-term rally appears.
Over the past several weeks, Gold has respected market manipulation far more than traditional price action. That is why understanding market psychology has become much more important than simply following candlestick patterns.
If you can understand where liquidity is resting and why market makers are moving price the way they are, you'll have a much better chance of staying on the right side of the market.
I hope you found this psychological analysis valuable and learned something useful from it.
Good luck for Wednesday, and I hope you all have a profitable trading session.
By the way, what's your trading plan for Gold?
Let me know your view in the comments.
XAUUSD — Is 4,080 the Sell Trap?Gold is still moving inside a descending price channel.
Price is trading around 4,050 - 4,060, right near the middle zone of the channel.
This is not a clean buy area.
And it is not the best place to chase a sell either.
For me, today’s chart is about one question:
Will gold retest the sell zone first before dropping deeper?
The simple read
Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure while price stays inside the descending channel.
The nearest sell reaction area is around 4,080 - 4,091.
This zone also lines up with the Fibonacci reaction area and the upper part of the current correction.
If gold pushes into this zone and shows rejection, sellers may try to take control again.
The first downside area to watch is 4,043 - 4,027.
If that support fails, the next deeper target becomes 3,985, then the key support zone near 3,945.
Key price zones
Current price area: 4,050 - 4,060
Middle channel zone: 4,050
Sell reaction zone: 4,080 - 4,091
First support: 4,043 - 4,027
Fibo extension support: 3,985
Key support zone: 3,945
Bearish pressure weakens above: 4,091
Trading plan
📉 Sell reaction scenario
If gold retests 4,080 - 4,091 and shows clear rejection:
Sellers may try to push price back toward 4,043 - 4,027.
If this support zone breaks, the next downside area to watch is 3,985.
A deeper move may target the key support zone near 3,945.
I prefer waiting for rejection confirmation instead of selling randomly in the middle.
📈 Short-term bounce scenario
If gold holds above 4,043 - 4,027:
A small recovery may appear.
Price could retest 4,080 - 4,091 again.
But this bounce is still only a reaction while gold remains inside the descending channel.
A stronger bullish view needs price to break and hold above 4,091.
📉 Deeper correction scenario
If 4,027 fails clearly:
The correction structure becomes stronger.
Gold may continue toward 3,985, where the Fibonacci extension support is waiting.
If buyers still fail to react there, the key support zone near 3,945 becomes important.
Gold is not giving a clean reversal signal yet.
The chart is still respecting the descending channel.
That means I do not want to chase the current price.
I want to see either:
A clean rejection from 4,080 - 4,091.
Or a confirmed reaction from 4,043 - 4,027.
Main view:
Gold remains cautious below 4,091.
4,080 - 4,091 is the sell reaction zone.
4,043 - 4,027 is the first support.
3,985 and 3,945 are the deeper zones if the correction continues.
Reaction first.
Confirmation second.
Trade last.
No confirmation = no trade.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,080 - 4,091, or break the channel first? Short 
BEFORE YOU BUY GOLD... READ THISYesterday, the market completely invalidated the key support zone that I shared, which was between $4093 and $4116. Instead of respecting that support, Gold opened with a gap-down below the zone. As a result, what was supposed to be a strong support area immediately turned into a strong resistance.
Overall, anyone who was holding buy positions from last week's lows, especially traders who were using $4000 as their stop-loss level, got trapped badly on Monday. We witnessed a very aggressive sell-off throughout the session. Looking at that price action, I don't believe Gold is ready for a meaningful recovery just yet. Instead, I expect the market to continue attracting small buyers before extending its bearish move.
Gold has been holding above the $3950 support area for some time now, but I believe that level is likely to break in the coming sessions.
For me, the trading plan remains very simple. As long as Gold stays below $4055, I will continue looking for selling opportunities on every rally because I believe the market's primary objective is still to trap buyers.
The market tried several times to hold above the important $4055 to $4080 support zone, but every recovery attempt failed. Yesterday's sharp decline confirmed that buyers currently lack the strength to regain control. More importantly, it suggests that institutional players are not interested in supporting a short-term bullish trend. Instead, their focus appears to be pushing the market lower while trapping every new buyer entering too early.
Now let's discuss my short and simple trading plan for Tuesday.
Considering yesterday's aggressive sell-off and respecting the current price action, I don't expect Gold to suddenly recover and begin a strong bullish rally. If that happens, it would represent a complete manipulation move rather than a healthy price action recovery.
From both a psychological and price action perspective, my expectation is slightly different.
Right now, Gold is fluctuating around the $4000 level, creating confusion between buyers and sellers. Yesterday's aggressive decline has changed market sentiment significantly. Whenever the market makes such a large impulsive move, it rarely continues moving aggressively in the same direction immediately afterward. Instead, it usually spends some time creating liquidity before the next major move begins.
Because of that, I expect Gold to show a limited upside correction first. The purpose of this move would likely be to trap the sellers who entered near yesterday's closing prices while simultaneously attracting fresh buyers back into the market.
Notice that Gold only briefly broke below $4000 before quickly recovering back above it. That temporary breakdown likely convinced many traders that the downside move had ended, encouraging them to enter fresh buy positions once the price reclaimed $4000.
In my opinion, Gold may extend this recovery toward the $4030 to $4040 area. However, I believe that move will simply create another selling opportunity before the market reverses lower once again. My expectation is that Gold will eventually move back below $4000 after that temporary recovery.
This entire trading plan is based purely on price action and market psychology.
I hope you found today's analysis logical and helpful. Wishing everyone the very best for Tuesday's trading session. Trade patiently, manage your risk carefully, and let the market come to your levels instead of chasing price.
By the way, what's your trading plan for Gold this Tuesday?
Let me know your view in the comments.
GOLD IS ABOUT TO TRAP EVERYONE AGAIN... HERE'S WHYLast week, sellers tried their best to push Gold lower, but at the same time, buyers also showed impressive strength. Most importantly, Gold managed to deliver a weekly close above our key support level of $4080.
Overall, if I look at last week's price action, it is clear that the bulls showed strong participation. Even after such heavy selling pressure, the market managed to recover and close with bullish momentum. That tells me buyers are still in control. So, let's discuss whether Gold is more likely to buy or sell next week and perform a complete psychological breakdown to understand how we can catch the best trading opportunities.
The biggest trap of last week was actually created on Monday. If you noticed, Gold performed an almost perfect liquidity sweep around $4200 before showing a strong rejection and selling move. Looking at the entire week, the market formed a clear lower high structure. Because of that, there's no doubt that many traders are still holding sell positions from around $4200, with stop losses placed above that level, expecting a much bigger downside move.
At the same time, every trader following traditional price action and trendline analysis likely entered fresh sell positions on every pullback. As I have shown on the chart, many traders are expecting the market to react from that trendline and are probably hoping for a gap-down opening on Monday.
However, I believe they are missing one very important detail.
During Friday's closing session, buying volume increased significantly. The 4-hour candle closed as a strong bullish hammer, clearly showing that buyers stepped in aggressively near the weekly close. More importantly, the downside liquidity has already been taken.
The sharp decline we witnessed last week was mainly designed to trap random buyers who entered too early. Those stop losses have already been hunted. Now, the majority of fresh stop losses are sitting above the market because so many traders are currently holding sell positions. In my opinion, trapping those sellers has become the next logical objective for smart money.
My plan for next week is very simple.
As long as Gold remains above the $4078 to $4116 support zone, I remain strongly bullish. Personally, I expect Monday's opening to be bullish, and I wouldn't even be surprised to see a gap-up opening specifically to trap sellers who are still holding positions based on the lower high structure.
I expect an aggressive bullish move after the market opens, which could quickly push Gold toward the $4163 to $4183 resistance zone. Around that area, we may see some short-term consolidation or attract a few fresh sellers, but I believe that would simply be part of the process before the next continuation move higher.
Most importantly, I am expecting a breakout above $4200 this week.
Remember, during the week of June 22, Gold produced a strong rejection from that area. Because of that previous rejection, many traders have already entered fresh sell positions after seeing another rejection from $4200 last week. That tells me a significant amount of liquidity is now resting above $4200, and I believe smart money will eventually target that liquidity.
Even if the market breaks the lower high structure and then pauses, consolidates, or even creates a small fake bearish move, I would simply view that as liquidity creation before another bullish continuation.
Overall, my outlook remains bullish, and I expect Gold to break above $4200, move beyond $4220, and potentially extend toward $4274 during the upcoming week.
I hope you enjoyed this short and simple psychological trading plan for the upcoming week. Hopefully, it helps you prepare for the trading sessions ahead.
I sincerely wish everyone a profitable trading week. Trade patiently, always respect your risk management and money management rules, and don't let emotions control your decisions.
By the way, what's your view on Gold for next week?
Let me know your opinion in the comments.
