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Harmonicpattren

Gold Moves Quite OptimisticallyGold prices (XAU/USD) hit a two-week high during today's Asian session, extending their four-day uptrend. The precious metal managed to surpass the psychological $4,700 level, driven by a weakening US dollar following the White House's latest statement regarding the duration of the conflict in the Middle East. ✅ End-of-War Speculation: "Two to Three Weeks" President Donald Trump's statement on Tuesday night was the main market driver: - ⚡Operation Estimate: Trump expressed his expectation that the US military operation against Iran would be completed within 2-3 weeks. He also emphasized that a formal agreement with Tehran was not a prerequisite for ending the war. - ⚡USD Impact: Optimism about the end of the conflict quickly weakened the US dollar's safe-haven status. Since gold is priced in USD, a weakening greenback automatically benefits gold buyers. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Regional Risks: Largest Military Escalation in 2 Decades Despite Trump's optimistic tone, the facts on the ground show tensions remain very high: - ⚡Troop Buildup: The US deployed an additional 3,500 Marines, bringing the total troop buildup in the region to 53,500—the largest mobilization in 20 years. - ⚡UAE Pressure & Strait of Hormuz: The United Arab Emirates is reportedly pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is keeping oil prices high and fueling inflation concerns that could force the Fed to remain hawkish. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🎯Key Levels to Watch 🎯 - ⚡Bullish Confirmation Target ($4,745 - $4,750): The 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level. A daily break above this area is needed to trigger further buying towards higher levels. - ⚡Immediate Resistance ($4,700): The psychological round number currently being tested. - ⚡Critical Support 1 ($4,590): The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level. This is the "reversal" (SBR) area that must now be maintained to maintain bullish momentum. - ⚡Psychological Support ($4,500): The second line of defense in case of mass profit-taking. - ⚡Correction Floor ($4,400): The 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level. A break below this level would end the recovery phase and send gold back to test the 200-day SMA around $4,136.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NouzTrader
1
GBP/JPY Undergoes Heavy Selling PressureGBP/JPY experienced selling pressure after rising to the 211.22 area, but has now retreated back to the 210.50s. Prices are currently stuck near a three-week low as markets digest stagnant UK GDP data and slowing inflation in Tokyo. ✅ UK: Stagnant GDP & BoE's Stagflation Dilemma Latest economic data failed to provide any strength for the Pound Sterling: - ⚡GDP Confirmation: The UK economy grew only 0.1% in the last quarter of 2025. Although business investment was slightly better than expected (-2.5% vs. -2.7%), this figure still indicates a worrying contraction in capital. - ⚡Interest Rate Risk: The BoE's hawkish signal regarding a potential interest rate hike in April 2026 was met with negative market responses. Investors are concerned that an interest rate hike amidst the energy price shocks caused by the Iran war will accelerate the recession (stagflation). - ⚡Energy Vulnerability: As an economy heavily reliant on energy imports, the UK remains one of the most vulnerable to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Japan: Tokyo Inflation Slows & Intervention Speculation On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces a strong sentimental tug-of-war: - ⚡Low Tokyo Inflation: Tokyo's CPI slowed to 1.4% in March (the lowest level since 2022). This data dampens market expectations for imminent policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which theoretically weakens the JPY. - ⚡Safe-Haven Sentiment: Despite low inflation, the JPY continues to draw support from its status as a safe-haven asset and speculation that Japanese authorities will intervene physically if the domestic currency weakens too deeply. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ Key Levels to Watch - ⚡Intraday Resistance (211.22): Today's high that failed to hold. A break above this area is needed to alleviate short-term selling pressure. - ⚡Strong Barrier (212.00): A key psychological level that aligns with Tokyo's verbal intervention zone. - ⚡Nearest Support (210.20 - 210.30): The three-week low reached yesterday. - ⚡Main Bearish Target (209.50): If the pound continues to weaken due to recession fears, this area could be the next downside target.
Short
by NouzTrader
2
BERGEPAINT | FALSE BREAKDOWN?DISCLAIMER : This is NOT a recommendation but only my observation. Take your trades based on your own analysis Points to note: ----------------- 1. Price inside a weekly range for almost 3 years 2. Price at PRZ of an extended BAT pattern, which also looks like a breakdown of the weekly range 3. This breakdown may be an opportunity to collect liquidity and may precede a sharp reversal. 4. If bullish volumes enter at this level, it provides confirmation of the same. ------------------
NSE:BERGEPAINTLong
by Divergent_trader
2
GBP/CHF Downward Potential Quite ClearOn the 4-hour timeframe, GBP/CHF is showing clear signs of selling exhaustion. - ⚡Market Structure: The medium-term trend remains bearish, but the downward momentum is starting to slow. The price is currently firmly anchored in the Major Demand Zone (lower gray box) between 1.05000 and 1.05500. - ⚡Price Action: A minor double bottom is forming in the demand zone. The appearance of several candles with long lower wicks (wick rejections) at 1.05430 indicates that buyers are starting to accumulate positions to defend the psychological level of 1.05000. ✅ Key Zones: - ⚡Resistance: 1.06200 (Supply Area / Last Lower High). - ⚡Support: 1.05000 (Psychological Floor / Major Demand). In terms of the wave cycle, GBP/CHF appears to be completing the final phase of a long downtrend: - ⚡Wave Structure: The decline from 1.09000 appears to be completing the Wave 5 structure. - ⚡Current Status: Since the price is already in an area of ​​very strong demand and the RSI momentum is starting to show bullish divergence (price forming a LL, indicator forming a HL), there is a strong indication that Wave 5 is nearing its end or has reached its peak (ending diagonal). - ⚡Projection: After Wave 5 is complete, the market will theoretically begin a reversal phase leading to Corrective Wave A with the first upside target towards the 1.07500 area. The main bias for GBP/CHF is currently neutral, tending towards bullish for the medium term. Although the major trend remains down, selling at 1.05430 is very risky because the downward "room" is very limited and is at the end of the Elliott wave.
Short
by NouzTrader
The Dollar Index (DXY) Maintains GainsWe are observing an upward Change of Character (ChoCH). The DXY has successfully broken through the previous Lower High and is now attempting to create a new Higher High. Price Action: The current price of 100.267 is directly above the recently broken Support Become Resistance (SBR) area. An impulsive push is visible (dominant green candles), but the price is starting to approach the Supply Zone in the 100.500-100.800 range. Wave Structure: The previous major decline was most likely the completion of Major Wave 5. Current Status: This impulsive rise towards 100.267 looks like Wave 1 of a new bullish cycle. Projection: If Wave 1 completes around 100.500, we should prepare for Wave 2 (Corrective), which will typically retrace to the 100.000 area before finally exploding upward in a longer Wave 3. The primary bias for the DXY is currently BULLISH. The next price movement will likely attempt to touch the 100,500-100,600 level. ✅ Trading Plan: - ⚡Anticipate a Correction: Given that the price has already risen quite high impulsively, don't buy right at the current price. Wait for the price to "breathe" or correct (Wave 2) towards the 100,000 area (the psychological level). - ⚡Confirmation Scenario: If a rejection pattern (such as a Pin Bar or Bullish Engulfing) appears in the 100,000 area, it is a golden opportunity to look for a long position with a target of 101,200. - ⚡Invalidation: This bullish view will be invalidated if the DXY falls again and closes below the 99,500 level.
TVC:DXYLong
by NouzTrader
USD/JPY experienced a sudden sell-offUSD/JPY experienced a sudden sell-off after hitting a new high since July 2024 in the 160.30s. Although the four-day uptrend was halted with a decline to the 159.65 area, the technical structure suggests that this weakening remains corrective as long as key support levels remain unbroken. ✅ Main Catalyst: Real Threat from the BoJ & Japan's Ministry of Finance Today's sharp decline was triggered by coordinated statements from the Japanese monetary authorities: - ⚡Verbal Intervention: Comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura sent a strong signal that the government was ready to physically intervene in the foreign exchange market to stem the weakening of the yen. This triggered aggressive short-covering (closing of short yen positions). - ⚡Factors Hedging the JPY: Despite the Yen's technical strength, the escalating conflict in the Middle East (Houthi attacks and the risk of an Iranian invasion) continues to weigh on Japan's economy as an energy importer, limiting the potential for further Yen appreciation. ✅ Key Levels to Watch - Key Upside Target (160.80): The next target if the price breaks through the 160.30 high zone again. - Immediate Resistance (160.20 - 160.30): Today's peak area, which serves as a major psychological barrier. - Intraday Support (159.40): The first support level to be tested if the sell-off continues. - Correction Limit (159.00): The psychological area before reaching the next crucial support.
Short
by NouzTrader
1
Gold Weakening Triggers Sell on RallyGold prices (XAU/USD) managed to record steady intraday gains, climbing above $4,450 in today's European session. This strengthening was triggered by a moderate weakening of the US dollar following the postponement of the military deadline, although the outlook for global interest rates remains a heavy burden on the precious metal. ✅ Diplomacy: Deadline Extension Until April 6 Market sentiment softened slightly following the latest announcements from the White House: - ⚡Attack Delay: President Donald Trump postponed a planned attack on Iran's energy infrastructure and extended the deadline for opening the Strait of Hormuz until April 6, 2026. - ⚡Negotiation Claim: Trump stated in a cabinet meeting that Iran was "begging" for a deal. However, this claim was strongly denied by Tehran, which asserted there was no possibility of a deal amid the US military mobilization. - ⚡USD Impact: This delay triggered profit-taking in the US dollar, which gave gold room to recover some of its losses. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Monetary: "No More Cuts" & Rate Hike Speculation Despite the military pause, the threat of energy inflation continues to keep central banks on a tight leash: - ⚡The Fed (US): Markets have now completely eliminated expectations of a rate cut this year. Instead, bets for a rate hike by the end of 2026 have increased significantly. - ⚡Bond Yields: This hawkish outlook keeps US government bond yields high, fundamentally limiting gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. - ⚡Global Effects: Other major central banks are expected to follow the Fed's lead in dampening energy price shocks, reinforcing long-term pressure on gold prices. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday) Technically, gold is attempting to form a recovery pattern, but the broad structure remains bearish. - ⚡Critical Resistance ($4,500): Gold needs to break and hold above this psychological level to confirm that the recovery has continued strength. - ⚡Nearest Support ($4,420 - $4,430): This is an area that must be guarded to prevent today's upward momentum from fading. - ⚡Main Bearish Target: The four-month low touched last Monday remains a potential target if safe-haven sentiment around the dollar strengthens again.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NouzTrader
1
USD/JPY: Stuck in the Red Zone & Japan's Stagflation ThreatUSD/JPY broke its three-day uptrend in today's Asian session, trading around 159.50 (down 0.15%). Although the US dollar experienced a moderate correction, USD/JPY's weakness was restrained by Japan's fragile fundamentals due to the global energy crisis. ✅ Intervention Risk: Psychological Level 160.00 The yen is currently in a highly sensitive area for Japanese monetary authorities: - Intervention Threshold: The 160.00 level has historically been the reference point for Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) to intervene in the market. This threat makes bulls hesitant to push prices higher until further clarity is provided. - Dollar Correction: The slight decline in the Dollar Index (DXY) gives the yen some breathing room, but this is more of a technical issue than a fundamental trend change. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ BoJ Dilemma: The Threat of Classic Stagflation The conflict in the Middle East is creating a difficult situation for the Bank of Japan (BoJ): - Trade Balance: As a net energy importer, the surge in oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exacerbates Japan's trade deficit, which naturally weakens the Yen. - Interest Rate Risk: The BoJ is unlikely to raise interest rates aggressively as the Japanese economy is absorbing an "energy shock." Raising interest rates amidst an economic slowdown risks triggering stagflation, which would limit the JPY's appreciation. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ USD/JPY Technical Analysis (Intraday) The price structure indicates consolidation in the upper range, awaiting a major catalyst for a breakout or reversal. - ⚡Critical Resistance (160.00): A sustained breakout and close above this psychological level would pave the way for a new target above the July 2024 high. - ⚡Immediate Support (159.00): The initial support level that sellers must break to confirm the start of a deeper correction. - ⚡Monthly Trendline (152.25 - 152.30): The uptrend structure that has been in place since February remains intact as long as prices remain well above this area.
Short
by NouzTrader
1
Gold XAU/USD Tests Bullish ThresholdGold prices (XAU/USD) are attempting to establish a recovery amid a tug-of-war between hopes for a ceasefire and the reality of military escalation on the ground. The market is currently weighing whether Iran's "goodwill gesture" is enough to dampen the central bank's hawkish policies. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Diplomacy: One-Month Ceasefire Mechanism - ⚡Hopes for de-escalation stem from a series of recent diplomatic moves: - ⚡Delayed Attack: President Donald Trump postponed attacks on energy infrastructure for five days to allow room for indirect negotiations. - ⚡"Gift" from Iran: Trump claimed Iran offered concessions related to energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz as a sign of good faith. This news pressured crude oil prices and eased short-term inflation expectations. - ⚡Impact on Gold: Easing concerns about aggressive inflation helped gold attract buying interest as pressure for more extreme interest rate hikes eased somewhat. ✅ Military Reality: Mobilization of the 82nd Airborne Division - ⚡Despite the peaceful rhetoric, military activity is actually intensifying: - ⚡Elite Troop Deployment: The US has deployed thousands of troops from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, signaling readiness for large-scale operations. - ⚡Retaliatory Strike: Iran has launched new missiles toward Israel, while drone interceptions continue to be reported in the Gulf region, Lebanon, and Iraq. - ⚡Safe-Haven Dilemma: These apparent tensions are preventing oil prices from falling too far and keeping gold in demand as a safe-haven asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🎯 Key Levels to Watch 🎯 - ⚡Major Upside Target ($4,750): The 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level. This is the final frontier for determining whether the current rebound represents a true trend reversal. - ⚡Confirmation Resistance ($4,637): The target after breaking through the psychological $4,600 level. - ⚡Bullish Psychological Limit ($4,600): Consistent closing above this level will validate the positive outlook for a test of higher levels. - ⚡38.2% Fibonacci Pivot Point: The level currently holding back the upward movement. Be wary of consolidation in this area. - ⚡Immediate Support ($4,470): Immediate support level in case of intraday profit-taking. - ⚡Bullish Trend Floor ($4,401): The 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level. As long as the price remains above this level, the daily bullish bias is considered intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NouzTrader
EUR/USD Under Strong Bearish PressureThe EUR/USD pair weakened 0.3% to 1.1535 during today's European session. The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by its safe-haven status due to the extreme escalation in the Middle East, was a major burden on the euro, which was also pressured by the threat of stagflation in the Eurozone. ✅ US Dollar (USD): Dominating the Psychological Level of the DXY 100 The Dollar Index (DXY) jumped 0.35%, approaching the critical level of 99.90. This strengthening was triggered by two main factors: - ⚡48-Hour Ultimatum: President Donald Trump's threat via Truth Social to destroy Tehran's energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened has triggered a massive capital flight to safe assets (USD). - ⚡Iran's Response: Iran's promise to close the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely increases the risk of a permanent disruption to global energy supplies, which has historically benefited the greenback. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Euro (EUR): Threat of Declining Purchasing Power Despite tightening signals from the ECB, the euro continues to struggle to recover: - ⚡Cost of Living Crisis: The surge in energy prices due to the Iran conflict is predicted to hit household purchasing power in Europe drastically, increasing the risk of an economic slowdown. - ⚡Goldman Sachs Projection: Although the ECB kept interest rates steady last week, Goldman Sachs now predicts rate hikes in April and June 2026 to combat energy inflation. However, the current risk-off sentiment is much stronger than the support from the interest rate spread. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Key Levels to Watch Immediate Resistance (1.1550): The intraday ceiling. The euro needs to reclaim this level to stabilize the decline. - ⚡Strong Barrier (1.1580 - 1.1600): The area that must be broken to invalidate the daily bearish bias. - ⚡Key Bearish Target (1.1475 - 1.1450): If Trump's 48-hour ultimatum approaches its deadline without a diplomatic solution, this level becomes the next downside target. - ⚡DXY Psychology (100.00): If the Dollar Index breaks through this round number, EUR/USD risks a free fall towards 1.1400.
Short
by NouzTrader
1
EUR/USD Remains Trapped in ConsolidationEUR/USD is currently stuck in a wait-and-see phase around 1.1540. ✅ Key Catalysts: FOMC Tonight & ECB Tomorrow Markets are calculating the impact of "war inflation" on monetary policy: - ⚡The Fed (Thursday, 1:00 a.m. WIB): The main focus will be on how Jerome Powell balances the risk of energy inflation (due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis) with the threat of slowing economic growth. A hawkish signal will push EUR/USD back to the 1.1400 area. - ⚡ECB (Thursday Afternoon): The European Central Bank faces a more difficult dilemma due to Europe's high energy dependence. Comments on the impact of the Iran war on Eurozone economic growth will be a key driver. - ⚡Risk Sentiment: Concerns that high energy prices will hamper the global economic recovery are making investors hesitant to place large bets on the euro. ✅ Key Levels to Watch - ⚡61.8% Fibonacci Resistance (1.1569): A close above this level and the 100-period SMA (1.1580) is needed to neutralize negative sentiment. - ⚡50.0% Pivot Retracement Point (1.1539): The current critical intraday level. Rejection here keeps selling pressure active. - ⚡38.2% Fibonacci Support (1.1509): The first line of defense to keep this week's recovery alive. - ⚡Bullish Target (1.1612 - 1.1666): A key resistance zone if the Fed is surprisingly dovish.
by NouzTrader
XAU/USD In Consolidation RangeGold prices (XAU/USD) are in a critical consolidation phase around $5,000. The market is weighing two opposing forces: a serious military escalation in Iran, which supports its safe-haven status, against the strengthening of the US dollar (USD) fueled by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. ✅ Geopolitics: Ali Larijani's Assassination & Iran's Threat The situation in Tehran reached a new boiling point following Tuesday's Israeli airstrike: - ⚡Loss of Key Leaders: Iran confirmed the deaths of Ali Larijani (Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council) and Gholamreza Soleimani (Head of the Basij). This is a severe blow to Iran's security structure. - ⚡Promise of Retaliation: The head of Iran's armed forces, Amir Hatami, warned that Iran's response would be "decisive and unfortunate." This statement raised fears of a massive retaliatory attack on US or Israeli assets. - ⚡Strait of Hormuz Blockade: The US military has begun targeting locations along Iran's coastline in an attempt to break the blockade. This disruption to 20% of global oil supply continues to keep the risk premium on gold high. ✅ Monetary: Shift in Interest Rate Expectations to "December" Inflation concerns stemming from the energy crisis have drastically altered the Federal Reserve's roadmap: - ⚡Interest Rate Cuts: The market is now aggressively cutting bets on interest rate cuts. From initial expectations of multiple cuts in 2026, the market now only expects one cut in December 2026. - ⚡USD Revival: Higher-for-longer sentiment (higher interest rates for longer) helped the US dollar recover from a two-day decline, which automatically became a major barrier to gold price gains. - ⚡Central Bank Super Week: In addition to tonight's FOMC, market focus will shift to the decisions of the Bank of England, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan later in the week, which could create cross-volatility in the XAU/USD pair. 🎯 Key Levels to Watch 🎯 - ⚡Confirmation Resistance ($5,100): Recent swing range. Gold needs to reclaim this level to completely neutralize negative sentiment. - ⚡Bearish Sentiment Limit ($5,061): As long as the price remains below this level, any rise will likely be exploited by sellers to re-enter (sell on rallies). - ⚡Immediate Support ($4,985): The recent low. If this level breaks, gold will lose weekly support and slide further. - ⚡Critical Reaction Zone ($4,950): A break below this level will confirm the continuation of a more aggressive bearish structure. - ⚡Final Downside Target ($4,900): The previous consolidation limit and the long-term ascending trendline. This is the "last bastion" area for the macro uptrend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NouzTrader
BTC/USD Has a Neutral to Bearish BiasOn the 2-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is showing signs of distribution around its All-Time High (ATH). - ⚡Market Structure: The main trend is technically still bullish, but we are seeing a significant slowdown in momentum. The price is currently stuck in the Supply Zone (grey box above) in the 74,000-75,500 range. - ⚡Price Action: A small Double Top or consolidation range is forming at the top. The emergence of several candles with long upper wicks indicates strong selling pressure (profit-taking) above the 74,000 level. ✅ Key Zones: - Resistance: 75,300 (ATH/Major Supply Area) - Support: 71,200 (Minor Demand/BOS Level) ✅ Elliott Wave Analysis If we map this movement using the Elliott wave cycle: - ⚡Wave Structure: The impulsive rise from the 60,000 area appears to be completing Wave 5 of a major cycle. - ⚡Current Status: The price of 74,086.50 is likely at the end of a sub-wave of Wave 5. In theory, after Wave 5 ends, the market will enter a Corrective Wave (A-B-C) phase. - ⚡Projection: There is a risk of a fairly deep corrective decline as Wave A heads towards the psychological support area in the 68,000-70,000 range before attempting to find a new direction. The main bias for BTCUSD is currently NEUTRAL, tending to BEARISH in the short term. Although the major trend remains up, entering a Buy at the current price of 74,000+ carries a very high risk of a drawdown as the price is currently in the "expensive" area (Premium Zone).
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by NouzTrader
USD/JPY Recovers, But There's Potential for a CorrectionUSD/JPY showed a moderate recovery during the Asian session, trading in the 159.20-159.25 range. ✅ Central Bank Focus: Awaiting FOMC & BoJ This week is a defining period for the monetary policies of two major economies: - The Fed (Wednesday Night): The Federal Reserve is expected to respond to the risk of energy inflation due to the war in the Middle East. If the Fed signals a higher-for-longer stance, USD/JPY risks breaking through 160.00. - Bank of Japan (Thursday): Market focus is on whether the BoJ will provide any hints about raising interest rates or reducing bond purchases to support the weakening Yen. - Inflation War Sentiment: The escalation of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which has disrupted oil supplies, continues to exert upward pressure on inflation, which theoretically supports the strengthening of the dollar against the yen due to the widening interest rate differential. ✅ Technical Indicators: Moderate Bullish Momentum Technically, buyers remain in control in the short term: - 200-H4 SMA (158.40): As long as the price remains above this moving average, the uptrend is considered intact. - RSI (49): Located just below the neutral centerline. This indicates that despite the uptrend, the market is not overbought, so the movement is likely to be consolidative before major news releases. ✅ Key Levels to Watch - Psychological Resistance (160.00): A crucial round number level. A clear close above this level would pave the way for a retest of the multi-decade high. - Nearest Upward Boundary (159.75): The highest level since July 2024. This area serves as a major barrier before the price reaches 160.00. - Intraday Resistance (159.60): The highest zone in the most recent daily trading session, which serves as the nearest recovery target. - Support (159.00): The daily psychological lower limit. A break below this level will lead the price to test stronger support. - Trend Resistance Line (158.40): The area of ​​the 200-day SMA (H4). If the price falls below this level, the current bullish bias will be lost and the focus will shift to a decline towards 158.00.
Short
by NouzTrader
1
USD/CHF Moves Limited Amid Strait of Hormuz ProspectsUSD/CHF broke its four-day winning streak, trading around 0.7890 during the Asian session. This decline was triggered by a broad-based weakening of the US dollar as risk-aversion sentiment eased following US diplomatic and military efforts to secure global energy trade routes. ✅ Geopolitical Factors: Strait of Hormuz Coalition & Kharg Island Risk The market is balancing hopes for peace and the threat of renewed escalation: - De-escalation Hopes: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicts the conflict with Iran will end within weeks. Plans to form an international coalition (including the potential involvement of the UK, France, China, and Japan) to escort tankers have provided positive sentiment for the recovery of oil supplies. - Kharg Island Tensions: Despite optimism, reports of a US attack on Kharg Island (the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports) over the weekend are raising concerns. - EU Response: The EU foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels today will focus on maritime military support in the region. ✅ Monetary Focus: Fed Decision & SNB Policy Central bank dynamics will be key to determining the medium-term direction: - The Fed (Wednesday): The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Market focus will be on the "Dot Plot" and policy guidance regarding energy inflation risks. - SNB Intervention: Although the Swiss Franc (CHF) benefits as a safe-haven asset during times of heightened tensions, its gains may be restrained. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently expressed greater readiness to intervene in the forex market to prevent excessive CHF appreciation that could harm Swiss exports. ✅ USD/CHF Technical Analysis (Intraday) Technically, the pair is testing psychological support levels after last week's rally: - Nearest Support (0.7850): A decline below this level would confirm a short-term trend reversal and open the way towards the 0.7780 area. - Key Resistance (0.7950): Price needs to break back above this level to restore its bullish bias towards 0.8000. - Sentiment: As long as uncertainty in the Middle East persists, the CHF tends to outperform the USD due to its status as a traditional safe-haven in Europe.
Long
by NouzTrader
NZD/USD remains in bearish controlNZD/USD is struggling to recover from a four-day low around 0.5845. ✅ Fundamental Factors: USD Dominance & Antipodean Sentiment NZD/USD's current movement is dictated by geopolitical dynamics and interest rate expectations: - ⚡Safe-Haven USD: The escalation of conflict in the Middle East (day 10 of the US-Israel-Iran war) continues to push investors toward the US dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) has now reached its highest level since November 2025. - ⚡Energy Crisis & Inflation: Surging crude oil prices have fueled concerns about global inflation, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future. This has pushed US Treasury yields up, directly pressuring the risk-sensitive NZD. - ⚡Support from China: Some positive sentiment came from higher-than-expected Chinese inflation data. As a major trading partner, China's strong economic data has provided a breather for the NZD to prevent a further decline. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Technical Indicators: Bearish Momentum Strengthens Technically, the price structure indicates significant medium-term weakness: - ⚡Price has fallen below this crucial moving average. Failure to return above 0.5876 signals a loss of medium-term support. - ⚡RSI (39.6): Is below 50 but has not yet entered oversold territory (oversold <30). This indicates there is still room for the price to decline further before a technical correction occurs. Conclusion: NZD/USD remains in bearish control as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA. Tonight's market focus will be on whether the New York session will bring further dollar buying that could push the Kiwi toward 0.5800.
Short
by NouzTrader
1
Gold Bias Remains Shrouded in WeaknessGold prices (XAU/USD) experienced massive selling pressure at the opening of the Asian session, plummeting to a four-day low before finding support near the psychological $5,000 level. The dominance of the strong US dollar and surging energy prices were the main factors dictating today's market movements. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ Energy Shock: Oil Soars 25% & Inflation Threat Commodity markets experienced extreme volatility due to developments in the Middle East: - Oil Price Escalation: A one-day increase of more than 25% in crude oil prices has sparked fears of a "second wave of inflation." - Fed Sentiment: This surge in energy costs has dimmed market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the short term, as the central bank will likely need to remain hawkish to curb inflation. - Retail Data Defeat: The current US dollar strength is so strong that it has managed to ignore the disappointing US Retail Sales report last Friday. The Dollar Index (DXY) is now at its highest level since November 2025. ✅ Geopolitics: Hardliners in Tehran & Day 10 of the War The political situation in Iran is escalating and moving away from diplomacy: - Iran's New Leader: The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, succeeding his father, signals that the hardliners remain in full control. - Trump's Response: President Donald Trump publicly declared the appointment "unacceptable," raising the risk of further military escalation on Day 10 of the US-Israeli campaign in Iran. - Strait of Hormuz Blockade: The remaining completely blocked gas and oil supply routes increase the risk of global economic turmoil, creating a "sea of ​​red" in global stock markets (the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei fell sharply). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday) Technically, gold is struggling to maintain its long-term bullish structure amid dollar pressure. - ⚡Psychological Support ($5,000): This level is the last line of defense for buyers. If the price closes below $5,000, gold risks entering a deeper bearish phase towards the $4,850 area. - ⚡Interim Recovery ($5,100): Gold managed to pare some losses and climb back to near $5,100 thanks to anti-risk fund inflows. However, the price still posted a daily loss of more than 1%. - ⚡Key Resistance ($5,150 - $5,180): A break above this area is needed to neutralize the selling pressure that occurred this morning. Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between its safe-haven status and intense pressure from the strengthening dollar and bond yields. The current market focus is Washington's response to the new leadership in Iran.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NouzTrader
1
Roll-Over: GIFTNIFTY Mar '26 Fut IntraSwing Levels 24th Feb 2026Harmonic BULLISH Pattern Roll-Over: GIFTNIFTY Mar 2026 Fut IntraSwing Levels For 24th Feb 2026 Rest Mentioned & plotted on Chart. 💥Level Interpretation / description: L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "🔔As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ❇️ Follow notification about periodical View 💥 Do Comment for Stock WEEKLY Level Analysis.🚀 📊 Do you agree with this view? ✈️ HIT THE PLANE ICON if this technical observation resonates with you. It will Motivate me. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 If You LOOKING any CHART & want for Level and ANALYZE? Share your desired stock names in the comments below! I will try to analyze the chart Levels, patterns and share my technical view (so far my Knowledge). If Viewers think It can identify meaningful setups. Looking forward to hearing from all of you — let's keep this discussion going and help each other make better trading decisions.________________^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^_________________
NSEIX:NIFTY2!
by DSKF16
Netweb Volume distribution Technical - Clear distribution chart , retail heavily trap show on volume, now that area work as Trap resistance, 3 step distribution happened 1st, break out base ( Trending stock on social media ai hot sector) 2nd break out time volume that attracts retails 3nd after institute sell to retail , clear sign ( small candle show high buyer sellers active) & Last distribution confirm low volume big red candle ( no one like to purchase that why vol big body candle confirm distribution sign) Also harmonic pattern type 2 crab( historical pattern) Fundamentals - Stock trading 8 time peg ratio , 1 pEG ratio is consider fair but here it 8X Also compared to us stock like nvidia, this stock overpriced Also result declared that show poor Maybe this thing tell stock created top here....... How volume distribution looklike:
NSE:NETWEBShort
by biokon70
1
Regression channel & Harmonic pattern - Short term bearish trendObservations: 1. It is short term bearish trend as long as price holds above 24400 2. Price is below 50 DEMA Possible Scenarios: 1. Price may attempt a mean reversion toward the median line of the channel 2. A break above could retest the 25,240–25,337 resistance zone, up move can only be considered when weekly candle will closed above that level because on weekly time frame there is 4 crows formation. 3. Harmonic patterns (1:1) suggests, the level of 24470 Support level in coming 10-15 trading days.
NSE:NIFTY
by OK_Rane
Bearish Harmonic in Play – Silver Sell Zone TriggeredBearish Harmonic in Play – MCX:SILVER1! Sell Zone Triggered 🔔 The pattern marked from X → A → B → C → D forms a Bearish Harmonic Structure , most likely a Bearish Butterfly , confirmed by key Fibonacci ratios: * XA to AB retracement: 78.8% * BC to CD extension: 1.543 This setup signals the formation of a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) near point D , where a bearish trend may initiate. 📉 Bearish Price Outlook The dotted projection lines and red arrow illustrate the anticipated downward move: * Price is likely to face resistance and reverse from the PRZ between ₹108,771 and ₹109,850 * A break below ₹106,899 could trigger further decline toward key support levels at ₹103,904 and ₹98,810
MCX:SILVER1!Short
by Mr_Huntking
2
Gold Prices Dip Amid Trade Tensions, Bullish Outlook RemainsThe global gold price has slightly decreased, with spot gold dropping by $9.9 to $2,898.4 per ounce, while gold futures were last traded at $2,926.4 per ounce, down $7.9 from the previous early morning. This adjustment is primarily due to profit-taking pressure after gold reached record highs. However, investors remain optimistic amid rising global trade tensions, especially with the high tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. These tariff policies are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the near future. Despite the short-term adjustment, gold continues to receive strong support from geopolitical instability and trade wars, and it may continue its upward trend until 2025. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to analyze the possibility of interest rate cuts, which could boost gold prices again. Additionally, strong buying activity from central banks and gold ETFs whenever prices drop also helps sustain the bullish trend of gold. Although gold is currently experiencing a slight decline, technical analysis suggests that this drop is temporary. With support at $2,860, gold may quickly recover and continue its upward trajectory towards the resistance level of $2,933. Investors could consider a SELL position around $2,933 and prepare for a BUY opportunity when gold returns to the support level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Brigi_ta