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TREND-LINE-CHANNEL-BREAKOUT-ACCUMULATION-1WSo the price action concept is: had been falling till Mar 2020 since 2017. since 2017 we saw a steady fall till Mar 2020. 1. Since Mar 2020 , it kind of went into a consolidation between 63 and 31 levels. 2. Now let's look at the structure. The entire fall can be condensed into a downsloping channel. There are two upper trend lines . Both have been tested at least 3 times. Currently both these trend lines have been broken. Secondly, we see an accumulation after fall which seems like the consolidation before high momentum breakout. 3. Within the accumulation we can see higher lows and same high, which means the 63 level has been tested several times, once that level breaks an upmove can start. Now let's look at the Volume Aspect-: ---> 1. Looking at the Volume Profile , we find the volume near 63-31 level is extremely high as compared to historical volume at previous price levels. Secondly, all the green (buying volume ) is very high and red(sell volume ) is very low. Which further confirms this as an accumulation region. i:e During buy volume=high, then price retraces with low volume and then again high volume buy-----> this forms a closed accumulation region. 2. Since the historical volume is low, There is very less barrier or resistance, which means once this breaks out, the momentum can be expected to be smooth and STRONG. ENTRY-: Clearly the 61 level is very important. That is the resistance of the accumulation region. So a confirmatory breakout above 61 level will signal entry. TARGET WITH LOGIC-: The tentative target level is all time high because since the volume is very low, but present volume is relatively stronger, any breakout can be assumed to be very strong and long-lasting. i:e it could easily cross the price levels. Nonetheless the imp levels to watch are 108, 140 and 197(all-time-high). EXIT-: Since exiting at target is ideal, we need to keep trailing stop-loss conservatively. We can use 1. Lows of candles 2. Moving Averages 3. S/R levels If stop-loss is hit----> exit. Else hold on till the target level. STOP-LOSS-: 31 is the consolidation support level. Since our target is optimistic we can choose 31 as the conservative stop-loss level. **ALL UPDATES ON ENTRY WILL BE POSTED HERE. TRAILING STOP-LOSS, EXIT AND CHANGES IN TARGET LEVELS AND ANY OTHER UPDATES WILL BE POSTED HERE** **COMMENT YOUR SUGGESTIONS** **LET ME KNOW IF VIDEO IS BETTER OR IF THIS WAS SHORT OR LONG POST** **IF YOU LIKE THE POST GIVE A THUMBS UP AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT FOR UPDATES**
NSE:HSCLLong
by VPA_TRADER
2
CONSOLIDATION-ACCUMULATION-BREAKOUT-PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case OBSERVATION-: Previously stock rallied rapidly after years of consolidation. Now we can see a significant consolidation happening where buying volume (blue) is greater than selling volume (yellow) 1. Moreover the current region volume has highest volume since the previous rally started. Definitely another round of accumulation is taking place. 2. So breakout above 815 will confirm and uptrend may resume. 3. Note the last breakout had low volume and RSI>80 suggesting it was a fail breakout. But now RSI <70 and volume has increased. So this time breakout might not fail ENTRY-: Above 840 confirmatory breakout STOP_LOSS Around the support of consolidation 604. TARGET-: Due to more accumulation the expected uptrend could be more than the previous rally. So 168% Fib-Ext Target. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:AARTIDRUGS
NSE:AARTIDRUGSLong
by VPA_TRADER
5
SRTRANSFIN ACCUMULATION 1D PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer -: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. NSE:SRTRANSFIN used to consolidate for a very very long time between 700 and 1300. After the rally since last year we can see currently its in a sideways region. This could be accumulation or distribution. We are not sure yet. But chances are high it is a small pause and a small accumulation region. Nonetheless confirmation is absolutely essential. 1500 and 1265 are important levels within which the sideways region is currently in. Breakout with high buying(green) volume will confirm accumulation and the opposite could signal possible distribution. Volume Profile -: ACCUMULATION REGION: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS 1. From 17Mar-20 to 30Oct-20 A Nice accumulation took place in the rectangular region with ample of volume. 2. Then rally happened with in between small pause where accumulation happened since in those small pause green volume was more than red volume (more buying than selling). 3. Now its in sideways but with very low volume compared to historical accumulation. So there is a high chance that its a brief pause and soon it will breakout and resume the trend. TARGET WITH LOGIC Mark the brief pause that happened between 22nd Nov and 23rd Dec (2020). The volume at that level is comparable to the volume at current level. Two things can happen 1. It breaks out with this amount of volume. In this case, it makes sense to assume a rally to be little more than the rally since 23rd Dec 2020 level since the accumulation volumes are almost same. So i used a Fib Extension from 23rd Dec 2020 and marked 168% as target level. 2. It continues in this region for a long time. Then afterwards if it breaks out we have to consider rally to be much longer because the accumulation now is much stronger. I will update target level with image if that happens Entry Wait for a breakout above 1537 level with high volume, 1D, closing at 320PM and then take position. I will update here before or during possible breakout. You may use breakout above 1537 + ATR(Average True Range) for additional confirmation. -> The best way to enter would be to partially after breakout and the add after (throwback + continuation). i will update when addition can be done. STOPLOSS Best to place stop-loss at or below 1276 for conservative approach. Then trail as per your strategy or best use MA in 1H or 1D timeframe with ATR Buffer. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit Note-: This analysis is for NSE:SRTRANSFIN to be put in watchlist not immediately taken position in. **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO LIKE AND FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:SRTRANSFIN
SLong
by VPA_TRADER
MINDTREE, TRENDLINE BREAKOUT, PRICE-ACTION VOLUME-PROFILE,Disclaimer -: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile -: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case Firstly Mindtree has been rallying nicely with 1-2 nice accumulation regions in between. Recently there was a pause with up-sloping trend lines i:e higher highs and lows. It has just given breakout with nice volume. OBSERVATIONS 1. Recent volume as per volume profile is less compared to previous accumulation and rally which means this was not a distribution region but a small pause. Breakout of which will continue the trend nicely. 2. Since the pause was in up-sloping price action and the buying(green) volume is more than the selling(red) volume , it makes sense to assume current region was a brief accumulation i:e buying took place. Which gives us more conviction that the up-trend will continue and risk is less. TARGET WITH LOGIC 1-2 accumulations have happened since the uptrend started. Regions marked in violet. So since the current volume is comparable to previous accumulation so it makes sense to consider the expected uptrend to be of equivalent magnitude. That is more the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from that level till now and chose a 168% as target. But this target is above all-time-high so its a provisional target level. Entry Confirmatory breakout has happened but price is still there giving us space and favourable RR ratio to enter. So entry at CMP. MY APOLOGIES I was supposed to post this earlier but was unable to. There is still space to enter it now. STOP-LOSS Since we are expecting a nice uptrend to continue with target high enough and again as it is swing trade, a conservative stop-loss will be better Since 1950 is a nice support levels and just above the previous accumulation during 18Dec 2020- 5Mar 2021, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. Keep trailing stop-loss as per you strategy. Using Moving Averages with ATR(Average True Range) as buffer is one the ways. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMPS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:MINDTREE
MLong
by VPA_TRADER
2
RELIANCE, ACCUMULATION, PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case OBSERVATIONS Reliance has always been rising. But recently since Sept 2020 we have seen a consolidation between 1800 and 2400 levels. Now as the volume profile suggests the recent volume is almost the same as the previous accumulation when NSE:RELIANCE started rising. (Regions are marked in violet boxes) So it could be either accumulation or distribution. But I bet its accumulation because of more buying(green) volume than selling volume and it has recently given a triangular breakout with huge volume. So if this is accumulation then a confirmatory breakout above 2400/2369 level will continue the uptrend even better than the previous one, because we have more accumulation now than before. So waiting for a breakout above 2400 level will be less risky and more profitable. I will update here when that happens TARGET WITH LOGIC Several Accumulations have happened since the uptrend started. So since the current volume is comparable to the previous accumulation region it makes sense to assume that the trend continuation will be longer than what happened since then. That is more the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from that level till now and chose a 168% as target. But this target is above all-time-high so its a provisional target level. Entry Confirmatory breakout above 2400 level in 1D timeframe or as per your strategy. But confirmatory breakout above the important and psychological 2400 level is less risky. Stop-loss Since 1850 is a nice support levels (support in the rectangular region, tested multiple times) so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. Since our target is high enough, a conservative stop-loss will be better to avoid being stopped out unnecessarily. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:RELIANCE
NSE:RELIANCELong
by VPA_TRADER
PENNANT-BREAKOUT-UPTREND-PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC-: The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Stock formed a big triangular pattern, gave breakout and then rallied. 2. Recent it formed a flag-pennant-like pattern i:e a brief pause. 3. That can be confirmed by the volume in that region. Mark the low volume as compared to the high volume when it started rising.This confirms that the current pennant pattern was just a pause. And thus when breakout happens the uptrend will resume. TARGET WITH LOGIC-: Since its a brief pause. and within that pause buying ( green,blue) volume is more than selling (red )volume. There is a high chance the current expected up-move should be kind of equivalent to previous move (could be more too). So a Fib Extension 100% target seems feasible. ENTRY-: Entry at CMP since it has just given a breakout out of the small triangular pattern with trend-lines tested at least 3 times gives us a nice conviction. STOP_LOSS 1450 and 1165 are good support levels. But since 1450 is too close to CMP , it will be a narrow stop-loss. Thus a conservative stop-loss is better for a swing trade in 1W. So 1165 could be a good spot. Its necessary to trail stop-loss as per your strategy. You may use Moving Average with ATR(14) as buffer. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
NSE:MCXLong
by VPA_TRADER
2
ACCUMULATION WITH PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME PROFILE Disclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. VOLUME-PROFILE-: Can be used to identify potential accumulation or distribution regions. If the volume of opposite trend is low then we will face less barrier to our current trend. POC-: Point of Control- The red line is where the maximum volume is accumulated. OBSERVATIONS-: Stock fell in a drastic downtrend, formed a narrow wedge->broke out and then uptrend started. While the uptrend several accumulations have happened. Current region is also an accumulation, but a breakout will confirm. The volume above 2500 level is very low which means we will face weak resistance so there is a high chance the stock will rise to the levels of 4900- all time high. ENTRY-: 2512 confirmatory breakout STOP-LOSS-: 1948 is the support of the recent consolidation EXIT Sometimes we have to exit before target is reached if there is bearishness. Following can be the clues of bearishness-: 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:HEG
HLong
by VPA_TRADER
TRIANGULAR-BREAKOUT-UPTREND-PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case OBSERVATIONS-: 1. Triangular Breakout and then resistance at 1024 level. 2. But the recent volume is comparable to the historical volume that accumulated before the long rally happened. 3. So the current could be a consolidation->breakout=long position. ENTRY-: Confirmatory breakout above 1024 level. TARGET-: Since the expected rally could be as big as previous one since the accumulation is highest in the current region so we aim for at least 100% Fib Ext Level- 1450 STOP-LOSS 865 is the best recent support level tested multiple times. So stop-loss somewhere around that level. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:KAJARIACER
NSE:KAJARIACERLong
by VPA_TRADER
GRASIM ACCUMULATION BREAKOUT PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILEDisclaimer-: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile-: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case POC- : The red line in volume profile is called Point of Control. This is the level where max volume of transactions have taken place. Firstly GRASIM has been rallying since a long while. With a hell lot of green volume it has been rising. Recently it took a pause to consolidate. Now a consolidation can be either accumulation or distribution. We observe the recent consolidation volume to be the highest since the rally began. So it is either accumulation or distribution. But I would bet on accumulation because-: (refer to point 2 in volume profile) IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-: 1. The consolidation happened in an up-sloping, triangular manner i:e higher lows and faced resistance at the same 1500 level 3 times making the resistance level strong. 2. 3 times tested resistance line was broken with nice volume. Moreover each time it retraced it was on low volume. This gives us confirmation of an accumulation region along with breakout TARGET Now the accumulation has a lot of volume, the highest since the rally started. So it makes sense to assume the current expected rally should be at least of that maginitude. More the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from the recent accumulation region and a target of 100%(at least) Entry Confirmatory breakout has happened but price is still there giving us space and favourable RR ratio to enter. So entry at CMP . STOP-LOSS Since we are expecting a nice uptrend to continue with target high enough and again as it is swing trade, a conservative stop-loss will be better Since 1260 is a nice support levels and just above the previous small, minute pause during 2Feb - 1Mar 2021, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. Keep trailing stop-loss as per you strategy. Using Moving Averages with ATR( Average True Range ) as buffer is one of the ways. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMBS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:GRASIM
NSE:GRASIMLong
by VPA_TRADER
5
APLAPOLLO,TRIANGULAR BREAKOUT, PRICE-ACTION,VOLUME-PROFILE 1DDisclaimer -: 1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED. 2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any. Volume Profile -: Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. 2. If the current volume is low, its mostly a pause before the trend resumes 3. If the current volume is higher or equivalent to historical levels then either the trend will resume or it may reverse. If it resumes then we have more strength in trend due to more accumulation. So a breakout/breakdown will confirm in this case Firstly NSE:APLAPOLLO has been rising smoothly for a long while now. In between small accumulations have taken place, marked in violet regions where volume was significant as shown by volume profile. Recently a triangular pattern was spotted with trend lines tested at least 3 times (4). As a result those are strong trend lines and if broken have a nice chance to continue the up-move. Recent volume inside the triangular region , marked in violet in volume profile is not so high compared to the volume that happened during huge accumulation which confirms that the current region was a pause and not a distribution. If it were distribution we would have a huge selling volume at least of the previous accumulation magnitude. TO SUM UP 1. Triangular pattern in 1D timeframe with trendlines tested at least 3 times 2. Previously a nice uptrend 3. Current region is just a pause 4. So continuation of trend expected after the breakout. TARGET WITH LOGIC 2-3 accumulations have happened since the uptrend started. Regions marked in violet. So since the current volume is comparable to region between 15Oct-8Dec 2020, it makes sense to assume that the trend continuation will be longer than what happened since then because there has been another accumulation 1Jan-2Mar 2020 after that. That is more the accumulation, greater the strength, so the more the move. So I used a Fib Extension from that level till now and chose a 168% as target. But this target is above all-time-high so its a provisional target level. Entry Confirmatory breakout above 1400 level in 1H timeframe or as per your strategy. But confirmatory breakout above the 3 times tested trend-lines is mandatory and less riskier. Stop-loss A conservative stop-loss will be better since the triangle is a very narrow one. Since 1050 is a nice support levels and just above the previous accumulation during 1Jan-2Mar 2020, so i would prefer the stop-loss around that level. EXIT Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep conservatively trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals. 1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1D timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low) 2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1D timeframe, better to exit at close of 1D since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal. 3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit Note-: it gave a nice breakout recently in 1H timeframe and has retraced a little. For those who are already in, it seems like breakout was not fake and there is high chance the breakout will continue since the retracement was weak on price action and volume For those who haven't taken position wait for the next breakout to avoid unnecessary risk. **IF YOU LIKE MY ANALYSIS, KINDLY GIVE A THUMPS-UP AND SHARE IT IF POSSIBLE, HELPS A LOT :) **I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS, BREAKOUT ETC. TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT. **YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES **ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED. NSE:APLAPOLLO
NSE:APLAPOLLOLong
by VPA_TRADER
ACCUMULATION WITH PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME PROFILE (1D)(LONG)Using Volume Profile one can identify probable accumulation or distribution regions by comparing the historical Volume at Price and current Volume at Price. Most of the times a breakout/breakdown from the region confirm accumulation or distribution. In GUJGASLTD since the rally began, current volume levels are comparable to previous volume levels when previous accumulation had happened. Current region was sideways for a considerable amount of time. So a confirmation was necessary. And it gave a breakout above the resistance line , for confirmation , ATR(14) ( Average True Range ) was used as a buffer. So a confirmatory breakout has happened in 1D timeframe ENTRY: Entry can be taken at 1H timeframe after the probable retracement or at Current Market Price at 11am Target: Since the current volume are comparable to the pvs rally it makes sense to assume the expected rally after current accumulation, to be of equivalent magnitude, So Fib Extension of 100% is the min Target Level. Its a provisional target level, since it is at a all-time high. EXIT Periodically Trailing of Stop-loss with moving average in 1D tf or when RSI Bearish Divergence is observed in 1D timeframe can be used as exit criterias. Since the target is above all-time-high , so exiting at the target doesnt make sense. Rather better to hold the position till either the stop-loss is hit or RSI Bearish Divergence is observed. STOP-LOSS Stop-loss Can be Placed at the Support of Accumulation Region **DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT FOR REGULAR QUALITY SETUPS USING PRICE ACTION AND VOLUME. YOU MAY ENABLE EMAIL NOTIFICATION TO NOT MISS ANY IDEAS** **PLEASE COMMENT REGARDING THE ANALYSIS, IT'LL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED** **THANKS** NSE:GUJGASLTD BSE:GUJGAS
NSE:GUJGASLTD
by VPA_TRADER