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Real Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in TradingReal Success Rates of the Rising Wedge in Trading Introduction The rising wedge, also known as the "rising wedge" in English, is a chart pattern that has a remarkable success rate in trading. This analysis details its performance, reliability and complementary indicators to optimize its use. Success Rate and Performance -Key Statistics Overall success rate: 81% in bull markets Average potential profit: 38% in an existing uptrend -Breakout Direction Bearish: 60% of cases Bullish: 40% of cases Contextual Reliability Bull market: 81% success, average gain of 38% After a downtrend: 51% success, average decline of 9% Important Considerations The rising wedge is generally a bearish pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Reliability increases with the duration of the pattern formation. Confirmation of the breakout by other indicators, especially volume, is crucial. Complementary Indicators -Volume Gradual decrease during formation Significant increase during breakout -Oscillators RSI (Relative Strength Index): Identifies overbought/oversold conditions Stochastics: Detects price/indicator divergences -Moving Averages Crossovers: Signal trend changes -Dynamic Support/Resistance: Confirm the validity of the wedge -Momentum Indicators MACD: Identifies price/indicator divergences Momentum: Assesses the exhaustion of the trend -Other Elements Fibonacci Levels: Identify potential support/resistance Japanese Candlestick Analysis: Provides indications of reversals Conclusion The rising wedge is a powerful tool for traders, offering a high success rate and significant profit potential. The combined use of complementary indicators increases the reliability of the signal and improves the accuracy of trading decisions. It is essential to look for a convergence of signals from multiple sources to minimize false signals and optimize trading performance. _______________________________________________ Here are the best times to enter a trade after a rising wedge, in a professional manner: -The confirmed breakout Wait for the candle to close below the support line of the wedge. Look for a significant increase in volume during the breakout to confirm its validity. -The retest Look for a pullback on the broken support line, which has become resistance. Enter when the price rebounds downward on this new resistance, confirming the downtrend. -The post-breakout consolidation Identify the formation of a flag or pennant after the initial breakout. Enter when this mini-formation breaks in the direction of the main downtrend. -The confirmed divergences Spot bearish divergences on oscillators such as the RSI or the MACD. Enter when price confirms divergence by breaking a nearby support. -Timing with Japanese Candlesticks Identify bearish formations such as the Evening Star, Bearish Harami, or Dark Cloud. Enter as soon as the next candle confirms the bearish pattern. -Important Considerations Always place a stop-loss to manage risk effectively. Be patient and wait for the setup to be confirmed before entering the trade Check the trend on higher timeframes to ensure the consistency of the trade. Integrate the analysis of the rising wedge with other technical indicators to improve the quality of decisions. By following these recommendations, traders can optimize their entries on rising wedges while minimizing the risk of false signals.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
GARTLEY Harmonic Pattern: How does it work?!GARTLEY Harmonic Pattern: How does it work?! The "Gartley", as its name suggests, was introduced by Henry Mackinley Gartley. All other harmonic patterns are modifications of the Gartley. Its construction consists of 5 waves: XA: This could be any violent movement on the chart and there are no specific requirements for this movement in order to be a Gartley start AB: This is opposite to the XA movement and it should be about 61.8% of the XA movement. BC: This price movement should be opposite to the AB movement and it should be 38.2% or 88.6% of the AB movement. CD: The last price movement is opposite to BC and it should be 127.2% (extension) of CD if BC is 38.2% of BC. If BC is 88.6% of BC, then CD should be 161.8% (extension) of BC. AD: The overall price movement between A and D should be 78.6% of XA How to use it Point D is where you come in, man! It's your entry signal. -If it's an M pattern, you buy. -If it's a W, you sell2. Where to put your STOP LOSS?? -Below or "X" if you are a BUYER. -Above "X" if you are a SELLER. These percentages are based on the famous Fibonacci ratios, as mysterious as the pyramids of Egypt! Ultimately, the Gartley pattern is like a good Cuban cigar: it requires patience and experience to be appreciated at its true value. But once you master it, it can become a powerful tool in your trading arsenal, as effective as a punch from Rocky Balboa!
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout.The Symmetrical Triangle: Real Success Rates + Breakout. The symmetrical triangle is an important chart pattern in technical analysis, deserving special attention from professional traders. This formation is characterized by a convergence of prices between two trendlines, one descending and the other ascending, creating a consolidation zone where indecision between buyers and sellers is palpable. Statistical Analysis Empirical data reveals that the success rate of the symmetrical triangle for a trend continuation is approximately 54%. This percentage, although higher than 50%, underlines the importance of a cautious approach and rigorous risk management in using this pattern. Breakout Point The breakout of the symmetrical triangle usually occurs when the price has traveled approximately 75% of the distance to the apex. This point is crucial for traders, as it often represents the moment when volatility increases and a new trend can be established. Risks and False Exits It is essential to note that the symmetrical triangle has a relatively high rate of false exits. Statistics indicate that approximately 13% of cases in a bear market can result in a false exit to the bottom. This phenomenon underlines the need for additional confirmation before entering a position. Strategy of use To effectively exploit the symmetrical triangle, professional traders must: -Identify the formation accurately. -Wait for the breakout near the point of convergence of the trendlines. -Confirm the breakout with other technical indicators or an increase in volume. -Put in place strict risk management to protect against false exits. In conclusion, the symmetrical triangle, although being a valuable tool in the trader's arsenal, requires a methodical approach and a thorough understanding of its characteristics to be used effectively in a trading strategy.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
Actual Success Rates of Ascending and Descending TrianglesActual Success Rates of Ascending and Descending Triangles Here is an analysis of the actual success rates of ascending and descending triangles in trading, based on the information provided: Success Rates Ascending and descending triangles generally have fairly high success rates as continuation patterns: -The ascending triangle has a success rate of approximately 72.77%. -The descending triangle has a slightly higher success rate of 72.93%. These numbers come from a study that tested over 200,000 price patterns over a 10-year period. Factors Influencing Success Several factors can influence the success rate of these patterns: -The trader's ability to execute the strategy correctly -Market conditions at the time the triangle formed -Market liquidity -Overall market sentiment Important Points to Consider -Triangles are considered reliable continuation patterns, especially in trending markets. -The ascending triangle in an uptrend is statistically more reliable than the descending triangle. -To validate the pattern, the price must touch at least twice each of the upper and lower lines. -An increase in volume during the breakout is an important confirmation sign. Strategies to improve the chances of success -Wait for the triangle to fully form before entering a position1. -Confirm the breakout with a close above/below the resistance/support level. -Use additional technical indicators to confirm the signal. -Pay attention to the volume, which should increase during the breakout. Conclusion Although ascending and descending triangles have relatively high success rates, it is important to use them in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and to take into account the overall market context to maximize the chances of success.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
3
The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading. When the ppix of an asset explodes and forms a very steep slope, the 45 degree line, also known as the 1x1 Gannangle, is an important and very useful tool in technical analysis, used to identify and predict market corrections. Meaning of the 45 degree line: The 45 degree line represents an equilibrium trend in technical analysis. It is considered an average support or resistance line, indicating a balance between time and price. This line is particularly important because it suggests a constant and balanced progression of the market. Main characteristics -Angle: The 45 degree line forms an angle of 45° with the horizontal axis of the chart. -Notation: It is often noted 1x1, which means that it represents a movement of one unit of price for one unit of time. -Interpretation: A trend following this angle is generally considered strong and likely to continue in the same direction. Use in Technical Analysis Traders use the 45-degree line in several ways: -Identifying trend strength: A trend that follows or exceeds the 45-degree angle is considered strong. -Support and resistance: The line can act as a dynamic level of support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend. -Forecasting movements: Traders can anticipate trend changes when price deviates significantly from the 45-degree line. -Multi-timeframe analysis: The line can be applied on different time frames, from short-term to long-term, for a more comprehensive analysis. Integration with other tools The 45-degree line is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for a more robust analysis. It can be combined with indicators, chart patterns, or other Gannangles to confirm trading signals and improve forecast accuracy. In conclusion, the 45-degree line is a powerful but often underestimated tool in technical analysis. Its simplicity and versatility make it a valuable tool for traders looking to identify and follow market trends with precision.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
IMPORTANT Macroeconomics: What is the trade balance?IMPORTANT Macroeconomics: What is the trade balance? The trade balance is an important economic indicator that can have a significant influence on the stock markets. Here is a simple explanation of this concept and its potential impact: What is the trade balance? The trade balance represents the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports over a given period. In other words: - If a country exports more than it imports, its trade balance is in surplus (positive). - If a country imports more than it exports, its trade balance is in deficit (negative). Impact on the stock markets The influence of the trade balance on the stock markets can vary depending on whether it is in surplus or deficit: Trade balance surplus A trade surplus can generally have a positive impact on the stock markets: - It indicates strong competitiveness of domestic companies in international markets. - It can strengthen the value of the national currency, which can attract foreign investors. -Exporting companies may see their shares increase in value. Trade deficit A trade deficit can have a negative impact on stock markets: -It can indicate a weakness in the domestic economy or a loss of competitiveness. -It can weaken the domestic currency, which can discourage foreign investors. -The shares of companies dependent on imports may be negatively affected. Important nuances It is crucial to note that the impact of the trade balance on stock markets is not always direct or predictable: -Overall economic context: Other economic factors can attenuate or amplify the effect of the trade balance. -Investor perception: The reaction of the markets often depends on how investors interpret the trade balance figures in relation to their expectations. -Specific sectors: Some sectors may be more affected than others by changes in the trade balance. In conclusion, although the trade balance is an important indicator, its influence on stock markets must be seen in the broader context of the economy and investor sentiment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
"Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash."Hindenburg's Omen" to predict a stock market crash. "Hindenburg's Omen" is a technical indicator in financial analysis designed to predict a potential significant decline or a stock market crash. Here are the main things to remember about this indicator: Definition and origin Introduced by Jim Miekka in the 1990s. Named after the Hindenburg airship disaster in 1937, symbolizing an unexpected disaster. How it works - Hindenburg's Omen is triggered when several conditions are met simultaneously on a stock market: - A high number of stocks reaching both new highs and lows over 52 weeks (usually more than 2.2% of stocks). - The number of new highs must not exceed twice the number of new lows. - The stock index must be in an upward trend (positive 50-day or 10-week moving average). -The McClellan Oscillator (sentiment indicator) should be negative. Interpretation -When these conditions are met, the Omen suggests underlying market instability and an increased risk of a significant decline. -The signal remains active for 30 trading days. Reliability -The indicator has correctly signaled some historical crashes, such as the one in 1987. -However, its reliability is questionable as it also produces many false signals. Usage -Generally used in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis to confirm sell signals. Traders can use it to adjust their positions or as an alert for increased market monitoring. It is important to note that, like any technical indicator, the Hindenburg Omen is not infallible and should be used with caution, in conjunction with other analytical tools. In the following photos, a harmonic "BLACK SWAN" pattern was detected on the DOW JONES, announcing a stock market crash or a strong correction!
CAPITALCOM:US30Education
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates.The "Head and Shoulders": Real success rates. Inverted Head and Shoulders: WATCH volumes when the neckline breaks!! Here is what we can say about the success rate of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in trading: - The inverted head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns to anticipate a bullish reversal. - According to some sources, the success rate of this pattern would be very high, with approximately 98% of cases resulting in a bullish exit. - More precisely, in 63% of cases, the price would reach the price target calculated from the pattern when the neckline is broken. - A pull-back (return to the neckline after the break) would occur in 45% of cases. - However, it should be noted that these very optimistic figures must be qualified. Other sources indicate more modest success rates, around 60%. -The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the break of the neckline, volumes, etc. A rigorous analysis is necessary. -It is recommended to use this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly. In conclusion, although the inverse head and shoulders pattern is considered a very reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60-70% than the 98% sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but must be used with caution and in addition to other analyses. __________________________________________________________________ Head and Shoulders: Here is what we can say about the success rate of the head and shoulders pattern in trading: -The head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns, but its exact success rate is debated among technical analysts. Here are the key takeaways: - Some sources claim very high success rates, up to 93% or 96%. However, these figures are likely exaggerated and do not reflect the reality of trading. - In reality, the success rate is likely more modest. One cited study indicates that the price target is reached in about 60% of cases for a classic head and shoulders pattern. - It is important to note that the head and shoulders pattern is not an infallible pattern. Its presence alone is not enough to guarantee a trend reversal. - The reliability of the pattern depends on several factors such as respect for proportions, the breakout of the neckline, volumes, etc. Rigorous analysis is necessary. - Many experienced traders recommend using this pattern in addition to other indicators and analyses, rather than relying on it blindly. In conclusion, while the head and shoulders pattern is considered a reliable pattern, its actual success rate is probably closer to 60% than the 90%+ sometimes claimed. It remains a useful tool but should be used with caution and in conjunction with other analyses. _____________________________________________________________________________ NB: In comparison, the classic (bearish) head and shoulders pattern would have a slightly lower success rate, with around 60% of cases where the price target is reached.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
1
The “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in tradingThe “Fan Principle” is a powerful technique in trading, using trendlines to predict price movements. Highlights 📈 Powerful Technique: The Fan Principle is formidable in technical analysis. 📉 Identifying Points: Drawing trendlines from three key points. 🔴 Trading Signals: Buy or sell signals can be identified depending on the pattern. 📊 Practical Examples: Analyzing price movements on charts to illustrate the technique. 💰 Profit Opportunities: Strategies can result in significant gains, up to 22%. 🛑 Risk Management: Importance of placing stop-losses to protect investments. 🔍 Additional Resources: Detailed information and charts will be shared to deepen understanding. Key Insights 📈 Technique Effectiveness: The Fan Principle helps identify clear trends using reference points, making the strategy both simple and effective. 📉 Importance of Confirmation: Validating trendlines with a third point builds confidence in trading signals, increasing the chances of success. 🔴 Warning Signals: Sell or buy signals, as shown in the video, can lead to strategic decisions based on historical analysis. 📊 Visual Analysis: Visualizing data on charts helps understand market movements, which is essential for technical analysis. 💰 Profit Potential: Trades based on the Fan Principle can provide significant profit opportunities, highlighting its effectiveness. 🛑 Protection Strategies: Placing stop-losses above resistance points is crucial to limit losses in the event of adverse market movements. 🔍 Access to resources: The information shared in the description and on other platforms offers ways to deepen the understanding of the technique and improve trading skills. __________________________________________________________________ The fan principle in trading is a strategy that consists of opening several positions on the same asset at different price levels. Here are the main aspects of this approach: How it works The idea is to open several positions (or "lots") on the same financial asset at different price levels, thus forming a "fan" of positions. These positions are opened at points considered as potential market reversals. The objective is to let these positions unfold like a fan or to close them gradually according to the evolution of the market. Advantages Risk diversification: By entering the market at different levels, the trader reduces the impact of a single bad entry. Movement capture: This approach allows to take advantage of different phases of a price movement. Flexibility: The trader can adjust his strategy by closing some positions while keeping others open. Complementary Tools The fan principle can be combined with other technical analysis tools to improve its effectiveness: Fibonacci Fan: This tool automatically draws trendlines at key levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) that can serve as entry points for fan positions. Gann Angles: These lines, drawn at different angles (82.5°, 75°, 71.25°, etc.), can also help identify potential levels to open positions. RSI (Relative Strength Index): Some traders combine the fan principle with the RSI to confirm entry points. Important Considerations This strategy requires good risk management, as it involves opening multiple positions. It is crucial to set stop-loss and take-profit levels for each position in the range. Using this approach requires a thorough understanding of the market and significant trading experience.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
3
NVIDIA: Bearish: Possible Head and Shoulders: Warning!NVIDIA: Bearish: Possible Head and Shoulders: Warning! Hello everyone The Wolf of Zurich has detected a possible "head and shoulder" on Nvidia, which would bring the price down to around $42. I have also drawn a trend line that you absolutely must watch! The level to watch is around $98-98 Here, watch your Fibonacci levels as well as your exponential mobile means Have a nice day everyone Some information to know about Nvidia: Nvidia, the world leader in graphics chips and AI, is enjoying a flourishing situation despite a recent drop in its stock price. Here is a summary of its current situation: -Dominant position in the AI ​​market Nvidia occupies a quasi-monopolistic position in the field of chips for artificial intelligence. Its GPUs, especially the H100 series, are essential for the development of cutting-edge AI systems and are selling at high prices around the world. -Stock market performance Despite a recent 9.53% drop in its share price, Nvidia has posted an impressive 120% increase since the beginning of the year and nearly 400% over 3 years. This one-off drop does not seem to worry analysts, who still see significant growth potential. -Technological innovations Nvidia recently presented its new Blackwell GPU architecture, with the B200 and GB200 processors. These chips promise performance multiplied by 5 compared to the previous generation in the field of AI. The company also reassured investors by announcing that it had resolved the production problems initially encountered. -Future Outlook With its dominance in AI training chips and its comprehensive software ecosystem, Nvidia appears well positioned for continued growth. The company continues to innovate and strengthen its position in the AI ​​market, which suggests a positive outlook for the future.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
WALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow JonesWALMART: Bearish: Overbought alert: Impact on Dow Jones Be careful with Walmart as you can see cocoa and st microelectronic also rose to very very high historical levels and look at the correction that we had immediately after at least 40% drop This action can have a significant impact on the Dow Jones A strong correction could lower the DJIA index I alert you on this I alert you especially on the notion of "stock market cycle" and "seasonality" Walmart is overbought you just have to look at your technical indicators RSI, ROC, Stochastic, exponential moving average, Ichimoku, Fibonacci retracement. We could go much much lower so be careful this action is overbought Monitor your above-mentioned indicators.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
GOLD: Bullish - FLAG detected + Breakout of the range.GOLD: Bullish - FLAG detected + Breakout of the range. 1- A "Head Shoulders" has been detected and we did a perfect Take profit ( TP1) at 2 395$. 2- When we break a range the Take profit should be the Height of the range. Then the TP2 is expected around 2 518$. 3- Plus we can also consider that the range is like a flag and then the TP3 ( green arrow) is expevted around 3 030$ The red horizontals are retracements regarding ICHIMOKU levels . However a retracement Fibonacci gives a target lower around 2 100$. Be careful
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
SP500 : Bearish : Cycles pattern : Watch out!Look carefully at April 2005, October 2007 and Today. A "Sell Off" of 20% took place. History does not usually repeat itself, but in trading the phenomenon of cyclicals exists. It's just AMAZING! What do you think?! In addition, the levels indicated are achievable in the medium term, 2-3 months; In recent days, this is what happened at the macroeconomic level: 1-Jackson Hole Result: No big impact on the markets: Dow Jones or techs. 2-NVIDIA long awaited: Result: The action disappointed and went down Minus 9.86% in total after closing and yesterday minus 6.38%. Cause: Delay in the delivery of new chips, among others... Will NVIDIA always explode the ceilings, while the competition arrives: AMD, GOOGLE, etc... with more efficient chips that do not heat up. Technically the markets are OVERBOUGHT so a return to the 38.2% or 50% of Fibonacci would be perfect for sellers, but also for buyers who would like to buy at a lower price! I remind you that in trading we buy the bottoms and we sell the peaks!
SP:SPXShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
US OIL WTI : Bullish - Falling wedges + inverse Head & ShouldersUS OIL WTI : Bullish - 2 falling wedges + Head&Shoulders Wti crude oil can rise higher because of current geopolitical tensions. OPEC countries have reduced their daily production of barrels of oil. Technically: The wolf of Zurich has detected 2 "Falling wedges" and an " inverse head & shoulders" . These chartist patterns could raise the price of WTI oil around 96$-98$ and even up to 106$ ; However a divergence with their ROC ( Rate fo Change ) has been detected and we could go back down to the levels indicated on the graph 81$- 79$- 73$ ,and then 67$ dollars. To monitor EMA.50 and EMA.200 on different timesframes be careful ! have a good day to all
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
BTC : BITCOIN: : FLAG + Double Top detectedBTC : BITCOIN: : FLAG + Double Top detected The Wolf of Zurich has detected 2 chartist famous patterns : 1st is a "Double Top" , which gives a Bearish signal , and the price can reach : 58 000 - 56 500 The second signal is Bullish . I detected an "ascending FLAG" , which is a Bullish signal; And the the price can reach 71 200 - 73 00 Watch the EMA.200 Daily and the ICHIMOKU levels around 51 000 Weekly be safe Good trades "PAKA PAKA ! "
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
2
ETH : Bullish possible - SHARK detectedETH : Bullish possible - SHARK detected A harmonic pattern named "SHARK" has been deteted. These patterns are used especially by ALL the professional traders, Hedge funds, banks etc... The Potential Reversal Zone ( PRZ) has been reached ( white rectangle). Then the price can go to the targets mentionened on the graph : 3 305 - 3 425 - 3 620$ However the rising wedge bearish is still valid!! Then pleaqse watch the EMA.200 ( Daily). Be safe.
Long
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich