XAUUSD — Discount Retest Before Expansion
Market Context
Gold is trading around $4,174 after a strong bullish displacement through the descending institutional supply trendline and the marked equal highs. Price has now reached the short-term liquidity pool, confirming buyer strength but also leaving the current move extended.
The macro backdrop remains supportive as a softer US dollar, lower oil prices and easing Treasury yields have reduced pressure on Gold. June job openings were little changed at 7.4 million, while upcoming private employment data and Friday’s payroll report remain the next major catalysts for Fed expectations and volatility.
SMC View
The bullish MSS sequence showed that buyers were gradually taking control above the rising support structure. The latest displacement then broke the institutional supply trendline and cleared the equal highs, confirming bullish continuation.
However, buying directly inside the $4,164–$4,176 short-term liquidity pool would mean chasing an extended move. The $4,108–$4,121 Discount Repricing zone is the main decision area, where a controlled retracement could rebalance the displacement before another expansion.
Main Trading Scenario
Condition:
Gold retraces into the $4,108–$4,121 Discount Repricing zone and forms a clear bullish rejection. A lower-timeframe bullish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.
Entry: $4,108–$4,121 after bullish confirmation
SL: Below $4,100 and the reaction low
TP1: $4,164–$4,176
TP2: $4,264–$4,276
Key Zones to Watch
Current price: $4,174.030
Main buy zone: $4,108–$4,121
Short-term liquidity: $4,164–$4,176
Bullish OB: $4,036.311
Main target: $4,264–$4,276
Invalidation: Acceptance below $4,036.311
Confirmation: Bullish rejection with MSS or CHOCH
Prime Gold View
The buy bias remains valid after Gold broke the institutional supply trendline and cleared the equal highs. The preferred plan is to wait for a confirmed pullback into $4,108–$4,121 rather than chase price inside the current liquidity pool.
If buyers defend the repricing zone, price could reclaim $4,164–$4,176 and expand toward the HTF external liquidity near $4,264–$4,276. Acceptance below the bullish OB would weaken the structure.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long