Macdtrading

XAUUSD — Breakout Pressure Builds Gold remains volatile after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a divided 9–3 decision, with three members preferring a 25-basis-point hike. This split reinforces uncertainty around the next policy move and keeps XAUUSD sensitive to Treasury yields and the US dollar. Attention now shifts to today’s US Q2 GDP advance estimate and June Personal Income and Outlays, including PCE inflation, both scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. These releases could determine whether the latest gold recovery develops into a broader expansion or faces renewed pressure. Technical View On the H1 chart, XAUUSD has recovered strongly from the 4,000 area and is now forming higher lows above a rising intraday trendline. Price has reclaimed both the EMA 34 and EMA 89, while the faster average is beginning to turn higher. This suggests improving short-term momentum, although the broader descending trendline near 4,105–4,115 remains the decisive resistance. RSI is holding near 58, above the neutral 50 level without entering overbought territory. Buyers therefore retain momentum, but confirmation above the descending trendline is still required. The MACD panel is not visible, so no crossover can be confirmed. A bullish crossover or expanding positive histogram would strengthen the breakout scenario. Important Key Levels Immediate support: 4,040–4,052 Deeper demand: 4,015–4,025 Trendline resistance: 4,105–4,115 First upside zone: 4,112–4,120 Higher resistance: 4,158–4,168 Trading Scenario My primary view remains bullish while XAUUSD holds above the rising trendline and the 4,040–4,052 support zone. A controlled retracement into this confluence, followed by bullish rejection and RSI holding above 50, could support another attempt toward 4,105–4,115. Sustained H1 acceptance above the descending trendline, ideally accompanied by bullish MACD confirmation, may open the way toward 4,158–4,168. Buy/Sell Condition Bullish condition: Price defends 4,040–4,052 and confirms an H1 breakout above 4,115. Bearish condition: Sustained acceptance below 4,040 would weaken the immediate structure and expose the deeper demand around 4,015–4,025. Overall View The EMA recovery, rising trendline and RSI above 50 currently support buyers, but XAUUSD is still trading beneath a major descending resistance line. With GDP and PCE approaching, I prefer to wait for confirmed acceptance rather than anticipate the initial volatility. Do you expect XAUUSD to retest 4,050 before breaking higher, or move directly toward 4,115?

XAUUSD — Reversal Test Ahead Gold is stabilizing near the 4,040 area as a softer US dollar provides short-term support ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision. The FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, making monetary-policy guidance the main volatility catalyst. Attention will then shift to Thursday’s US Q2 GDP advance estimate and June Personal Income and Outlays, including PCE inflation data. Both reports are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET and could reshape expectations for yields, the dollar and XAUUSD. Technical View On the H1 chart, XAUUSD has formed a lower bottom near the 4,010–4,020 demand zone, while RSI printed bullish convergence and recovered above the neutral 50 level. This indicates improving momentum, but price remains capped beneath the descending trendline and the 4,048–4,058 EMA resistance zone. The broader structure therefore remains corrective until buyers establish acceptance above this confluence. The MACD panel is not visible, so no crossover can currently be confirmed. A bullish MACD crossover or expanding positive histogram would strengthen the recovery scenario if price breaks the trendline. Important Key Levels Trendline and EMA resistance: 4,048–4,058 Primary demand: 4,008–4,020 Deeper downside zone: 3,948–3,960 Near-term upside level: 4,075–4,080 Higher resistance: 4,120–4,130 Trading Scenario My primary view is cautiously bullish while buyers continue defending 4,008–4,020. A controlled pullback into this demand zone, followed by bullish rejection, RSI holding above 40–50 and positive MACD confirmation, could support another attempt to break the descending trendline. An H1 close above 4,058 may open the way toward 4,075–4,080. Sustained acceptance above that region could expose the higher resistance around 4,120–4,130. If primary demand fails, price may first sweep the deeper liquidity around 3,958–3,970 before a stronger recovery develops. Buy/Sell Condition Bullish condition: Price holds demand and closes above 4,058, supported by RSI above 50 and bullish MACD momentum. Bearish condition: Sustained H1 acceptance below 4,008 would weaken the recovery and increase the probability of a decline toward 3,958–3,970. Overall View RSI convergence suggests that selling momentum is fading, but the descending trendline and EMA resistance remain the decisive barriers. With the Fed decision approaching, I prefer to wait for confirmation rather than anticipate the initial breakout. Do you expect XAUUSD to break the trendline directly or sweep demand before the next recovery?