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Marketpsychology

Time to be Cautious in Nifty50 ?Nifty Ends Above 22,000 today, For First Time. Time to be cautious? The setup for 2023 was very powerful as its previous calendar year witnessed only 10 new 52-week highs, while for 2024, its previous calendar year saw a staggering 29 new 52-week highs. Today markets opened at new lifetime highs marking the second new lifetime high in just 15 days of calendar year 2024. Reliance alone is the biggest contributor in last 1000 point Nifty gain. Furthermore, IT sector has led the Nifty rally and has spiked significantly in the last three trading sessions because of results backed by cheaper valuations. The markets are clearly in bull's favor but the recent upswing warrants a certain degree of caution as, many times, such sharp rallies do not sustain. There is high probability that there will be profit booking in areas of ebullience, specially in small-cap & mid-cap space. Though the larger texture of the market is still on the positive side & current leg of rally may extend up to 22,400 levels but due to temporary overbought conditions, upcoming interim budget & elections, markets may remain volatile & in profit booking mode. We can see a selling market only after sustaining below 21750-21700 levels but right now THE TIME IS NOT TO SHORT BUT TO BE CAUTIOUS DEFINITELY.
NSE:NIFTY
by akshit_official
14
Stock Market AnimalsThe stock market animals roam the financial landscape, representing optimism or pessimism. These animal metaphors capture the sentiment and beliefs behind the market participants who often try to outsmart each other through their edge in the market. Here is a list of 7 most popular animal metaphors in the stock market. Maybe it can help some traders to look at themselves in the mirror. 🐮Bulls🐮 Its true that at some point everybody would have been a bull in the stock market but here we are talking about the hardcore bulls who are quintessential symbol of rising market. They never go short on the market and make money from the escalating prices of the stocks. This is because they are always overtly positive about the economy and the companies in which they invest. Undoubtedly, bulls are responsible for the buying pressure in the market. 🐻Bears🐻 Needless to say, bears are exactly the opposite of bulls. They never go long and make money from falling stock prices. Their pessimistic and cautionary view about the markets glue them to their short positions. Thus, bears keep on creating selling pressure in the markets. 🐕Wolf🐕 Wolves are neither bulls nor bears but at the same time they are the both. Wolves are shrewd animals who always seek profit making opportunities on both sides of the market. Due to their aggressive trading they quickly adapt to the changing market conditions. They are able to take advantage of momentum, volatility and short-term price discrepancies. They tend to quietly wait for opportunities rather than hopping on to them. 🐢Turtle🐢 Turtles by their very nature believe in slow money-making ideology. They are the most patient ones among all the other categories. Generally, they marry their investments with a longer-term perspective. They take stock splits, bonuses and pocket dividends to make money. Turtles are steady buyers as well as steady sellers. 🐰Rabbit🐰 Rabbits are the most popular trading creatures. They are Intraday hoppers who trade in both the directions. They may be bullish at 10am and bearish at 10:05am. They believe in small but quick money-making ideology. Characterized as least patient among all the other types of market participants, they are just the opposite of turtles. Generally, they are pushed by the market sentiment to take a large number of trades during the day. However, they square off all profit/loss making positions before market close. They don’t restraint themselves from using a whole lot of indicators and strategies to make buy and sell decisions. Unfortunately, most rabbits lose money in the market. 🐔Chicken🐔 They are risk-averse creatures who believe in preserving their capital. Market volatility and momentum are not their cup of tea. They invariably take small risk and make smaller money. A small price fluctuation, on either side, may throw them out of the trade. 🦈Shark🦈 Sharks are the market manipulators. With their exceptional potential to drive or hold the prices to certain levels, they look for opportunities to trap weak traders on the wrong side of the market and exploit their fear or greed. Trading pools, large traders and prop firms etc. fall into this category. What makes them different from the rest of the market participants is their access to more accurate market data and mammoth sized Gigabucks at their disposal. I would not ask your (not so unpredictable) type but would say that there is always room for improvement. It just needs : ⚡Realization on your part to recognize yourself. ⚡Commitment to follow the discipline needed to transform yourself. Thanks for reading. Do like for more educational stuff in future. Disclaimer: These metaphors are not created by me but views are personal.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
11
How Resistance Turns into A Support?Hi You must have often heard that a resistance once taken out could act as a potential support level. Let us see through this chart how this happens. Firstly there is a strong resistance zone on the left bottom of the chart, which is also 2019 high. Price took a knee jerk reaction from that level. Many traders would have bought near the highs in a bull market but now they are sitting in a loss. They would be thinking that as soon as the price comes back to their average price or cost, they would exit/sell. 1. Finally after the sharp bear phase, price rallies back to the 2019 highs. Now the above traders/investors would start selling at cost. Many new traders who think that price is at resistance would also start shorting (selling). Those who bought at lower prices would also try to book profits. So there is a flux of sell orders at that level. But wait! is that true? 2. Selling is there but buy orders are just overwhelming. Buyers are absorbing all the supply and managed to hold the reaction of selling. Or you can say that seller were not strong enough or buyers were stronger. If sellers are not strong and buyers are strong then what would happen? Tell me..... Yes you are right, the price would rally higher. And it did. 3. Now all those seller who acted at stage 1 would be shocked and want to book their loss at a better lower price. There are others who still think that this stock is weak and the BO is fake, so they start shorting. Price pulls back to the 2019 highs. 4. Now stage 1 sellers have a better opportunity to cover their loss, so they start buying. Left out buyers also start buying due to better bargain. Pullback buyers enter the market. This large flux of buying orders pushes the price higher and the rally resumes. 5. In this way, the prior resistance turns out to be a support for the stock. This same psychology repeats at 6&7 where price holds previous resistance as a support. Imho, Its always beneficial to see any market or chart from psychological point of view rather than merely patterns and signals. The same market psychology is true for how a support once broken, turns into a resistance. Thanks for reading. I hope it would be useful. Regards
NSE:TCSEducation
by Bravetotrade
6
Five Important Lessons to Learn From the MarketHere are a few important lessons that can help traders and investors to survive in the markets and become profitable over a period of time. Risk Management ---------------------- Whether you are an options trader or cash market investor, risk management is the most important concept to deal with. You should always prescribe our risk before entering the trade. Adjust position size so that the risk does not exceeds the prescribed limit. After entering the trade, you can either go for reward which could be double, triple or more than your risk OR you can trail your stop loss to go for larger gains, in case momentum is strong. Nothing Works All the Time --------------------------------- A trader can utilize a custom system/strategy, can take discretionary decisions or use an algorithm to take decisions. But remember that nothing is going to work all the time. You are bound to miss moves, exit early or get shaken out before the move actually starts. You need to think about longer term perspective. The opportunities that you missed were just a few of next 100 trades that you are going to take. But if you are missing 6 out of 10 opportunities, you need to adjust your strategy. All Strategies are not for Everyone ------------------------------------------- You might have seen or heard about traders who made huge money using their own strategy. But trust me, even if you get that strategy for free there are higher chances that you are going to lose. It is not just the strategy but years of hard work by the author that made it perfect for him. He would know all the nuances and the environments where it worked well. Also, the nature of a strategy should be directly proportional to your personality. An aggressive strategy for one trader can be too slow for the others. Start Small -------------- If you are not so familiar with the stock market then you need to start with small capital. This will automatically reduce your risk and position size. Your profit will also be small but learn to make your calculations in percentage terms. First prove yourself that you are a profitable trader for at least three months, then increase your capital gradually. Deal with Failures ---------------------- As I said nothing works all the time. There will be losing days and losing streaks. It is very difficult to deal with losses when you are new to trading. But to begin with, minimal losses are easier to deal with. Imagine you started trading with 1lac and lost 10K on the very first day. I am sure that soon you will lose it all and then become an investor. Following risk management and developing strategy that suits you are not overnight processes. You have to develop discipline to follow them. Try to stay in the market for longer time and it will teach you how to deal with failures. Before you leave don't forget to like and comment for more such writeups in the coming days. Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
14
TRADING A GAME OF PROBABILITYTRADING A GAME OF PROBABILITY We know that market has random movements; the pattern behaved in the past cannot behave exactly the same next time so in a random market environment there are so many external factors that can affect the outcome of the trade, a trader cannot know all those factors. What you know is your EDGE (your strategy) which is certain in an uncertain market environment, If your edge has a positive outcome you can produce a consistent result in a random environment. HOW TO PRODUCE CONSISTENT RESULT IN A RANDOM ENVIRONMENT An event that has a probable outcome can produce consistent results if you have the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. (a series of trades generated by your edge). You have to think in probabilities and take every single trade which meets the criteria of your system (your edge); you don’t know the outcome of any trade before taking the trades (you don’t know which trade is going to be a winner or loser) unless you know a way to travel in time so, you cannot select between the trades you have to play all. Every event is independent of the previous one. If your last 2 trades are loser doesn’t mean next will also be a loser, because markets are random and you can make consistent result if you have odds in your favor.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by SANJAYPATIDAR_
2