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Neutral

01 Mar ’24 — BankNifty gets an upgrade - from Bearish to NeutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also gets a stance change today i.e. from bearish to neutral. All that is pending is to take out the 47465 resistance to go bullish. Most likely that should happen tomorrow and we are eagerly waiting to trade on another Saturday. BN closed the day with a gain of 1166 points ~ 2.53%. But unlike Nifty, BN is not near its ATH. We have some more distance to cover. 4mts chart Look at the number of green candles in the higher time frame. 11 consecutive 63mts candles i.e. 693 hours of unchecked bull run. We are very sure if the same had happened yesterday - a lot of option traders would have tripled their capital. Expiries usually attract hero-zero traders and most of them prefer to load on BankNifty CEs and PEs. BN is safely out of the bearish channel and that is why the stance has been revised from bearish to neutral. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs39177. It was on the expected lines as the algo is based on option selling and for strong directional move days like today - it will run into deep cuts. In a way, we are happy that the loss was not 63891. I am a registered financial advisor & would be happy to assist with your queries or doubts. If privacy is required, you can DM me too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
08 Feb ’24 — Nifty Disappoints, stance reversed to neutral ➡️➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Our stance for tomorrow is bullish and since these are all games of probabilities we reserve the right to be wrong as would like to keep the 21826 area as a good stop loss.” 4mts chart Just when we thought things were swinging in our favor, Nifty took a U-turn and is now back in neutral territory. “Disappointing” is not the right word to define today’s price action, after all the markets did what it felt right. Our analysis and positioning are what took the toll today. I ended up booking the highest intraday loss ever since I started trading. To give you a backdrop, we were long overnight and the set-up looked pretty bullish for us. Although we cut losses once the 21826 magic level got hit, our MTM was too deep in the RED for any sort of recovery. Nifty fell a total of 346 points in the intraday trade today. The support level of 21913 was taken out with so much force (depth of the RED candle) that it felt like kissing goodbyes to this level. The culprit was BankNifty, after the RBI MPC meeting today, despite no major policy decisions - banks started falling, pulling the other stocks along with it. One thing that stood out in the discussion today was the instruction to include the loan processing fees, and other charges to the interest component so that the end customer knows the exact rate he is paying. Why would the bigger banks get spooked by that? Other stocks like NESTLE and ITC were looking weak even before the Governor’s speech. 63mts chart Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has gained only 70pts ~ 0.32%. The gains would have been sizeable and meaningful if not for the rout today. After today’s episode, we drew the double top pattern (M pattern). Since the support level of 21913 is breached, we hope that this pattern holds. Nifty is by no means bearish, unlike BankNifty which slipped into the RED today. If BN continues the southward journey tomorrow, most likely N50 will have to follow suit.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
30 Jan ’24 — Nifty Gets a Downgrade after yesterday's upgradeNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “We are changing our stance from neutral to bullish as we had all 6 green candles today. Ideally, the stance change should come only after the 21913 resistance breach — but we are taking a bit of risk here. The pattern played out to be a W (double bottom). We would now look for bullish opportunities and the first target would be 21913. The global macros are not looking good with the war in the Middle East, news from Taiwan, and news from N Korea. Hope our markets will give a strong clue in case the situations escalate.” 4mts chart It is too early to say if the move today was due to the News impact that said “The US would give a fitting reply to the actions of Iran”. For us, it looked like a technical cool-off. We made the mistake of upgrading Nifty from neutral to bullish yesterday despite getting all 6 green candles. Today, we lost in a similar fashion 5 out of 6 63mts candles in RED. Most importantly we are back at the support level of 21491 where Nifty paused. Interestingly BankNifty did not fall that much, and neither did the NiftyIT - the pain was mostly for RELIANCE, Bajaj Finance, Titan, and ITC. 63mts chart We are back at square 1, the same support/resistance level of 21491 which we hit on 15th Dec 2023. In the last 1.5 months - we have gone nowhere. Seems like the Foreign Institutional Investors and DIIs took us for a roller coaster ride - and most of the retail traders are throwing up after the ride. After the meltdown today, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral. Gap-down open is the best way to take out the support. If we break the next target to watch out for will be 21292 followed by 21199.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
29 Jan ’24 — A flag like formation on 63mts TF - BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also gets a stance upgrade - from bearish to neutral. The price action was not as beautiful as Nifty50 today. One reason would be the outlier performance by Reliance today +7%, whereas the main weightlifters for BankNifty were HDFCBK 1.38%, Kotak +3.08%, ICICBank 0.64%. 4mts chart The support/resistance of 45399 was in play today and it proved quite sticky. Although BN got to this level by 09.31 - we never had a strong breakout today. On the 4mts TF it appears we broke the resistance between 09.59 to 11.15 - but it was not strong enough as we fell back to it by 11.19. On a close-to-close basis, BankNifty gained an impressive 576pts ~ 1.28% but the charts do not signify a bullishness yet. 63mts chart The pattern formed today more or less looks like a flag formation - so the bullishness could come at any moment. BankNifty has a lot of catching up to do, so the run could get quite wild too. If the FII selling in HDFCBK has ended, it could be a good relief to the Bulls. We have changed the stance from bearish to neutral as BN has defended the 44542 support & is just above the 45399 SR. The moment we break these supports, we will go back to bearish mode. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 608 rupees per lot
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
25 Jan ’24 — Unusual last 30mts of price action, could be a NEWSNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: ”The issue for the bears from the 63mts chart is the W formation (double bottom). To prove they are still in the game, the Bears must create a big fall and ensure an M pattern supersedes the W. Due to the momentum the bulls got today, we are changing the stance from bearish to neutral. The first target would be to take out the 214991 resistance and nullify the 5 RED candles formed on 23rd. If we were to move downwards, the swing low of 21372 has to be taken out tomorrow itself.” 4mts chart The main objective of the morning session was spent undoing the bullish surge yesterday. The selling pressure got arrested by 11.00, by then we had already fallen 214pts ~ 1.00%. We then had a quick surge till 11.39 followed by a gradual coo off. The LOD remained at 21247 proving that the BEARS are still in the game. What surprised all of us is the price action in the last 30mts. It did not look like a technical action, most likely it could be a news/event that broke out to a select group of people or insiders. Hope we get some clarity on that by Monday when we reopen. 63mts chart Yesterday’s W pattern is no longer valid as today’s action has nullified it. Our stance continues to be neutral with a slight inclination to the bearish side. Seems like FIIs are not done unwinding their positions - the run-up to the Budget 2024 looks interesting.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12 Jan ’24 — BankNifty goes neutral, Euphoria missing unlike ITBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNify opens above the resistance area of 47539 and then briefly falls below that till 09.59. When the entire IT sector was screaming GREEN, Banks were keeping lull. BN had its proper resistance break at 10.07. From there it made 2-legged rise to 47873 before giving away 270pts between 14.39 to 15.07. 4mts chart link We are impressed by BankNifty’s bull attack today that allowed the stance to change from bearish to neutral. But we still do not think it is a bullish case per se. A rising tide does lift all the boats. NiftyIT opened the floodgates of gains today and there would have been some spillover effects on other sectors. We will wait for the euphoria to cool off on Monday and re-evaluate the stance. 63mts chart link BankNifty is still neutral, the breakthrough of resistance has given a positive sentiment to it today - but it did not have the kind of momentum to go up. Take a look at FinNifty - it was flatter than BankNifty today. For Monday, the first thing BankNifty has to do is defend the support of 47539. The bulls will eventually drive it up if they get the confidence that the support is intact.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
10 Jan ’24 — 163pts pullback from a wedge - Nifty50 goes neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday “Interesting price action formed at the current levels. Seems like where we are right now is a crucial support/resistance zone that could decide the next trend. Our call of bearishness will continue until N50 can break through the channel top line.” 4mts chart link Even without breaking the upper trend line, we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral today. The ball was in bear’s court today and they did not score. A small falling wedge pattern created a short squeeze that took N50 161pts ~ 0.75% higher. Credits to RELIANCE that contributed to ~ 40pts today. Momentum is everything in a trend, we will wait and watch how Nifty50 reacts to the expiry day tomorrow. 63mts chart link The last candle which is strongly is GREEN is standing out. Looks like the 21491 support is respected for now. If we fall below that tomorrow, we will not hesitate to switch back the stance to bearish. What the dominant animal is tomorrow - bear or bull is totally dependent on the opening 15mts.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Shocking Last 30mts like a Tsunami — Nifty50We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “ 60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24 ” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions Nifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral Recap from yesterday: “Nifty is still way above the ascending channel showing bullishness. As long as the soft support level of 21652 is respected, we do not wish to change the stance.” 4mts chart link - click here Everything was going as per the plan, we even hit a new all-time high of 21834, but the last 30mts of price action was more severe than a Tsunami. Earlier in the day, was quite disheartened to hear the 7.6 Earthquake in Japan and the Tsunami alert. During those hours even Nikkei 225 futures were trading flat. We were watchful for any spillover effect to our markets but got nothing. BankNifty options flow was suggesting bearishness right from the start, the calls were unusually overpriced vs the puts indicating a higher number of CE credit spreads getting written (bearish). NiftyIT 4 mts chart - click here NiftyIT was trading in RED, so we almost gave up the hope of having a new ATH today. After a while, NiftyIT turned and turned quite big - the reversal was 536pts ~ 1.52% from the day’s low. And when NiftyIT reversed, it gave enough fuel for Nifty50 to take out the recent swing high and reach for new highs today. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation. Just for this reason, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral for tomorrow. We will revisit the stance during trading hours tomorrow, if it was just a blip then we should be having a new ATH tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
18 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Choppiness for 2 daysBanknifty is showing unusual resilience to breakdown, instead its chopping around. The intraday swing range has narrowed in the last 2 days which means we could expect a massive move pretty soon. I am not very sure what is restricting banknifty from falling. For example we had a good gap down today and hit the swing low of 16 Aug, but the recovery was so decent that it made the gap-down seem like a blip. By 10.15 banknifty was in green and from there the fall to 43776 levels was gradual with no momentum. It took till 13.40 for a fall of 170pts ~ 0.39% which is not a great deal. Just when Nifty50 started roaring (Reliance-Jio news), banknifty also started covering the shorts and rose till 43933 levels by 14.15. From there we kept drifting lower till close. Finally we just lost 40pts ~ 0.09%. The momentum has fallen in the last 2 days, it could even be a rest period wherein banknifty is catching some breath. The closing prices and the distance to the trend line is wide enough to change a stance, so I wish to stay bearish till 44068 resistance is safe. If its getting crossed via a gap-up or strong trading moves - I may have to change the stance to neutral on 21 Aug.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram