Earlier we have considered wave iii at 11072 but now it seems iii has completed at 11305 and wave iv at 11181 which is almost 23% retracement.
And if wave iv is completed at 11181 then projections of wave v is coming at 11377-11499.
we were expecting more than 38% retracement because counted five wave completed at 11305 and looking for wave (b or ii) which can...
In 30min chart immediate resistance range is coming at 10900-10970.
Note:- I am considering internal (i) and (ii) of (3) because expecting bigger decline. if this wave count is wrong then nifty can bounce quickly towards 11260.
Bounce from 11185 is looks like an impulsive wave and wave v of that impulse has already achieved its minimum projection.
Now this impulse can be:
(i) wave C of irregular correction-Nifty can decline below 11185 in that case.
(ii) New impulse- Nifty can give retracement of this impulsive bounce and then again bounce above 11794.
Detailed Analysis using Elliot Wave
Nifty from march lows formed Leading diagonal and its abc correction till 8806, fresh 5 step impulse wave was triggered till 11794.
Nifty opened gap down on Friday 04th Aug, Gap was wide and didn't get fill.
It has also broken swing low 11325 so this suggests start of fresh corrective wave.
Nifty to again test 11111 levels...
From 11111 wave (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv) may be completed at 11290 and from 11290 wave (v) may be started and in which i, ii, iii and iv is completed and v might be complete in the range of 11460-11491 range.
From 7511 its looks like double zigzag correction . But to find out top(End of (c)) we need to look at the recent bounce started from 11111.
I could not see any other pattern other than double zigzag correction. But it doesnt mean I am shorting blindly. do your own analysis and make trading strategy accordingly.
Nifty formed Parallel channel inside bigger channel and making smaller candles suggesting upmove exhuasted.
It formed Contracting Triangle at top of trend and didn't break major resistance 11380.
On 14th Aug gave downside breakdown from triangle completing sharp downside of 3rd impulse wave.
Third wave completed as you can see it formed Hammer at 11111...
As of now decline from 9889-8807 looks a three wave move, but the bounce from 8807 doesn't look impulsive so it can be a corrective wave of 9584-8807 and Nifty can decline again below 8807. 9104-9195-9287 can act as a resistance zones.
In monthly chart decline from 12428 can be wave C of irregular correction(Nifty can bounce again for new high in that case) OR it can be impulse wave A(Nifty can decline again for a new low in that case). 6338 is an invalidation point for this wave count.
From recent high 9889 to 9117 on down side nifty has completed an impulse wave and from 9117 corrective wave may be in progress now and after completion of this corrective wave nifty can decline more than 700 points.