Ninja Projections - A Collaboration of Technical And Quants1. The quantitative analysis
- 3 legs appear in the recent bull phase
- each leg constitutes a rise and then a relatively smaller fall
- the ratio of fall to rise for the first 2 legs is between 68%-70%
Now we are expecting a similar fall in USDJPY - that will make the ratio of fall to rise near 70%
For this, the prices might test the levels near 157.50
2. Technical Analysis
The prices have breached the upper zone of the ascending channel formation - seems like a fakeout
Since May 2026 - the bullish candles look weak, no strength
Prices are forming a bearish divergence with the RSI
The May 2026 VWAP is still untested, and the fair values are somewhere around 160.50
3. Fundamental Analysis
- Typically, whenever JPY weakens extremely against USD, Japanese authorities (BoJ and MoF) intervene in the FX markets to support their currency
- USDJPY is trending at all-time highs of 163.60 ; I think it's not normal
Short