The Ugly Rounded Top - What's Next in Nifty Bank Index?For the past 2 months, the Nifty Bank Index NSE:BANKNIFTY has been trading in the same range. The range of consolidation has been in the zone (58500 - 57000) . Directional trading has been a nightmare for directional traders. High-level range-bound volatility has been the new trend of Nifty Bank.
Multiple reasons have triggered a range-bound movement for such a long time. A few reasons might be - Iran-U.S. War, Crude Oil Price uncertainty, Energy Crisis, and inherent fundamental problems in the banking sector. Nobody can exactly comprehend all the reasons behind such an erratic range-bound movement. However, charts offer an easy look at the probable future of the instrument.
Let us not get into the fundamental and systematic errors in the instrument. We will primarily focus on the chart and the structure it has been building for such a long time.
Chart Pattern: "The Rounded Top"
The choppy market in the range of (58500 - 57000) has formed a famous trend reversal technical pattern - The Rounded Top. A rounding top pattern is an inverted "U" chart formation signaling a possible trend reversal after an extended uptrend. We have traded in the extended uptrend (bullish momentum) since 08th of June 2026. However, the bullish momentum had begun to wane by the end of the month. The month of July 2026 has been horrible for directional traders. The index was badly consolidating in the range (58500 - 57000). Most importantly, the range-bound consolidation has trapped both the bears and bulls. This is the very nature of a perfect "Rounded Top" chart pattern. However, we never know whether the consolidation is an accumulation process or a distribution process. A deeper look at the chart clearly shows that the price has sometimes formed a double-top pattern as it has revisited previous highs and encountered resistance again.
Rounded Top Consolidation Zone: (58500 - 57000).
Here, level 57000 is the neckline of the rounded top pattern . The total point range of the range-bound consolidation is 1500 points. As per classical technical analysis, if the neckline is broken, then we can expect at least 1500 points downward fall. Here, only a genuine fall will do justice to the sideways consolidation.
Strong Resistance Zone (SRZ): (58000 - 57500).
Presently, Nifty Bank has formed a strong resistance area in the zone of (58000 - 57500). It is highly recommended not to even think about bullish trades unless the price decisively breaks out above the zone (58000 - 57500). In the present scenario, every up move should be doubted.
Hypothesis: Nifty Bank Index will Go Down to 55250
As per the understanding of the present price action, it is evident that bullish sentiments are near to getting exhausted and bears are getting in charge. Since every up move will be doubted, there is a high chance that there will be at least a 1500-point fall below 57000. That is, it is estimated that Nifty Bank might gravitate down to 55500. Furthermore, it is estimated that Nifty Bank will go down further to the level of 55250. The reason being an availability of an unfilled GAP near the region of 55250.
⏺ Probable Scenario Analysis 👇
🟢 Bullish Scenario
There is no observable bullish scenario. Doubt every up move. In fact, an up move will act as an opportunity to short the market. However, if the price breaks out above 58000, then a weak bullish move can be expected. The probable weak bullish targets above 58000 would be - 58500 and 59000.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Presently, the price is in a bearish phase. Stay bearish if the price remains below 57000. The probable bearish targets below 57000 would be - 56500, 55500, and 55000.
🟡 No Trading Zone (NTZ): (58000 - 57000).
Here, the zone (58000 - 57500) is a super strong resistance. It is very difficult for the price to break out above this zone.
● Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly Bias
Establish bias with respect to the opening price (of the particular session - Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly). If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
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