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Shortcovering

06 Mar ’24 — New ATH, yet again - are you a believer now?Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Nifty managed to pull up and close above 22358 which is not a bad thing at all, but what was worrying is how NiftyIT traded today.” 4mts chart How many of you really thought we would hit a new ATH today? Even if you happened to read yesterday’s post-mortem report - you might not have gathered enough courage to go long. The markets really took all of us for a ride today. The opening hours it spent below the 22295 support showing a strong intent to fall. NiftyIT was trading with deep cuts and went almost to negative 558 points by 11.39. BankNifty on the other hand started strong and stayed strong and could pivot NiftyIT to go green. Even though the market views all favored us, the positions did not. The underpricing of the call options and the strong short-covering really hurt us. What is more saddening is the low conviction of the CALL short sellers, the moment the market turns - they run for cover. And this running away is fueling further upmove which triggers the next strike’s covering. The strength of the last 2 GREEN candles requires no special explanation. Right from the support level, it went and took out the all-time highs. Two things were in favor, firstly the strength of Banks and then the massive reversal of NiftyIT. We are maintaining our bullish stance for tomorrow as well, but we are not expecting 22600 to be broken tomorrow. 63mts chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
Unpredictable NIFTY ,Is it a bear trap?Yesterday, I had posted regarding the IVHS pattern of Nifty. Today, market had a big breakaway gap up opening followed by upmove to a strong resistance of 17600. Yesterday, the market had given a bearish closing and looks like this was a short covering which was triggered by strong Rupee vs USD. Today's closing above 17600 would be either a bull trap or a signal for bullish move upto 17775 . Monday market would be exciting and I would like to wait and watch rather than having an open position. This is my personal opinion and kindly trade as per your own analysis.
NSE:NIFTY
by chartistamey
Bear Trap in USDINRLast day bear trap is formed in USDINR, it simply means that it will be bullish for coming few days and can go up to at least high of double top i.e.,83.10 (might break that also). Let us decode the sentiments during this candle formation, On 26th when this big bearish candle gives closing below last swing low, people would have shorted it taking double top in consideration (putting SL above that breakout candle), now after last day big bullish candle there will be some fear among people having short position as it moved close to their SL. Once it move above 26th bearish candle a small rally on upside may come as the SL of all the short position will get hit.
Long
by sudhanshu_raaz
6
Nifty: At important support levels- Nifty near its March bottom - if holds on to 15680-15720 zone then it could be a case of Double bottom - Target could be retest of 20 day EMA / 50 day EMA / 200 day EMA ( use charts to keep track of these levels as it changes with every trade day) - trend line resistance around 16680 / 16800 Risk factor - we see 50 day EMA crossing below 200 day EMA which is also referred as Death Cross Can Nifty stage a comeback...? or are the Bulls down and out...? Only time will tell... Important levels have been given and different scenarios have been considered.... Given the set up, My Trading strategy: Gone with a 26 May expiry 15300 Put short @ 107 - Strategy has a 9% profit potential on margin requirement - it also gives protection for a fall up to 15193 till May expiry Will consider to Exit / Review if Nifty closing is below 15680. Take care...!!! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTYLong
by indiamarketoutlook
Why BEAR-TRAP occurs? How to Avoid and Trade a BEAR-TRAP?What is a BEAR-TRAP? --> BEAR-TRAP is a condition in the market where the Price gives a Breakdown below a Potential Support zone but quickly Reverses back above the Support without giving a follow up bearish candle. Why a BEAR-TRAP occurs? --> Big Players who are bullish on a specific stock would be wanting to buy a big quantity of shares at the best price , but there will be no enough sellers . Hence All Buy Orders of Big Players would not get filled. so what's the solution? --> Big Players know that the Retailers have maximum of their StopLoss order's just below the Support. --> Big Players will place Contra-Short Trades and will trigger the Stop-Loss Orders of the Retailers turning them into a Seller .Hence All Buy Orders of Big Players will get filled. . --> New Breakdown Traders place Fresh Short-Sell Orders looking at the Breakdown and if its a F&O stock , Call-Sellers open new positions at ATM (At the money) Strikes. . --> Now as All Buy Orders of Big Players got filled. . BIg players aggressively start moving the price up and trigger the Stop-Loss Orders of the New Breakdown Traders and Call-Sellers who entered looking at the Breakdown which ,again shoots up the price. -->Hence All Bears are been Trapped. How to avoid a BEAR-TRAP ? --> Look at the Volumes on the Breakdown ! If the Volumes are Low , It is probably a Fake Breakdown! . --> Wait for a follow up Bearish- Candle after the Breakdown Candle! i.e Take a entry only when the Low of the Breakdown-Candle breaks. --> Check out if there is a significant Long-Unwinding if its a F&O stock. How to trade a BEAR-TRAP ? -->Check out for a Reversal Pattern soon after the Breakdown. Eg: Bullish Engulfing, Bullish Harami, Bullish Piercing .etc --> This Reversal Candle Stick must close above the support. -->Enter a Long Position above the high of this reversal candle . Real Example! --> NSE:POWERGRID was trading within a Rising Channel . --> POWERGRID gave a Rising Channel Breakdown below 196 and gave a daily closing at 191. Perfect breakdown right? -->Breakdown Traders entered here keeping their Stoploss above the POC or just above Psycological level 200. and Call Sellers would have Shorted the POWERGRID 200 CE STRIKE . --> Check out the volumes on breakdown! Its very very low signifying its a Fake Breakdown. --> POWERGRID on the following day made a Bullish Above Stomach Candlestick pattern and gave a closing above the support level 196. -->Perfect Buy would be on 1HR Closing above the support level 196 on the next day. -->Boom! Price made an Impulsive Movement after it triggered all the StopLoss Orders placed at Psycological level 200 by the Breakdown Traders and also due to the Short Covering at 200 CE STRIKE . --> Wasn't it a perfect BEAR-TRAP Trade? If you liked this Educational Idea, Kindly LIKE,COMMENT, SHARE, & FOLLLOW me on Trading-View for more educational posts like this.
NSE:POWERGRIDEducation
by Roswin-Fernandes
2
An interesting week of short covering.A week to remember the huge gap down and recovery. Tomorrow's expiry is going to influence multiple news. Let's see where the nifty is going to expire tomorrow. key levels to watch out for above the 200EMA and 16750 as the first levels to keep an eye on. down side 16150 and 16000. It was a week to remember because I had been carrying a position Friday. I sold 17200CE and 14900PE at a good premium. Then on Monday, the roller coaster ride began with a huge gap down. I was rolling my CE to 16800 and book profit. Yesterday, I rolled again to 16600CE, PE side. I kept holding on and nifty started moving up. It was a nice move. PE started green. I have a16600 CE side, but it looks like a good position. such a sharp move today the CE shoot up i keep roiling my PE to 15250PE and 15000PE. book profit, but such a sharp move 16600 eat all the profit now at no profit and no loss state. Currently, I have 16600CE and 15700PE. I will have to firefight to adjust the position. Let's see how it ends this week. I am planning to exit the CE only after crossing 15550. I will keep rolling my PE side to 16100 and 16150. Let's see how it is going to end this week. If such an out of the world premium spikes, then I will exit my position with minimal loss.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
A SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE TRAP VARIATIONTriangles are one of the best continuation patterns. They are normally seen in the middle of a trend as the price halts and rebuild energy to resume in the direction of prevailing trend. In this particular variation shown on the chart, the price breaks against the trend. It would look like as if the pattern is about to fail but the breakdown ends up in a trap. It traps most short sellers on the wrong side of the market at 6. The price then shoots up with strong momentum leaving no choice for the short sellers than to cover their positions. So instead of only breakout buyers at 7, the variation will also trigger buy orders of trapped short traders. Due to large number of buy orders at 7 the price shoots up pretty fast without any major pullbacks. Its always good to keep such a strong weapons in your quiver and strike whenever the opportunity knocks. It needs to be pointed here that the pattern will lose its worth as the price drifts closer to the Apex. As a rule of thumb, If the price is beyond 3/4th the length of the triangle, as shown on the chart, the pattern should be traded with caution. If the price has drifted up to the Apex, then ignore the pattern and move on to a next one. The target for the triangle should be the height of the triangle from 1 to 2. This length measured above 7 will give us the target. Ex. If the distance between 1 to 2 is 50 points and the breakout 7 happens at say 550, then target will be 550+50 = 600 (just an example). This is a conservative approach. Some trades would like to hold it and trail their stop loss until they get stopped out. It all depends upon one's trading style. I hope the post would catch your interest. Do like and comment for more educational ideas in future. Regards JJSingh
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
2