GOLD – Consolidating before breakoutAfter last Friday’s push to 4550, gold was sharply rejected down to 4420 – completing a head & shoulders backtest.
Since this morning, price hasn’t continued either way and is now moving sideways on H2, showing clear compression.
Key range I’m watching:
Upper boundary: 4560
Lower boundary: 4440 – 4420
👉 This is the current “box” price is trading in.
🎯 Scenarios:
Break below 4420: → 4350
Break above 4560: → bullish continuation
⚠️ Key news to watch (potential price drivers):
15:30 (VN time): Iran deadline → possible escalation
Tonight: Powell speech
→ These could act as catalysts for a breakout
👉 For now: no breakout = still ranging, stay patient
💬 Do you expect gold to break up or break down today?
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Supportanddemandzones
While they prepare for war, I prepare to sell.Gold is currently moving inside a wide ascending trendline channel, with price consolidating in the near range of 447X – 435X. This is the key zone to watch for reactions.
My bias remains clear: every rally is a selling opportunity.
Resistance levels: 4475, 4495, 4520–4550, 4600, 4700–4740
Support levels: 4410–4413, 4352, 4320, 4300 → break below 4300 opens the path to 4200–4100–4000
Friday comes with higher uncertainty due to US news and geopolitical tensions. If escalation happens, I expect a potential sell-off into the weekend.
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Gold in H4 Range – Awaiting Pullbacks to SellAt the start of the week, gold dropped to 4970, then quickly rebounded to retest the 503X area — a former support that has now turned into resistance after being broken.
Currently, price is trading within the range of an H4 candle:
Upper boundary: 503X
Lower boundary: 497X
Notably, 4970 – 4960 is a daily timeframe support zone, so price may find buying pressure when testing this area. Traders should be cautious with sell stops around this level and observe the momentum before entering positions.
Main Strategy
Prefer selling on pullbacks at resistance zones.
Resistance:
5045 | 5065 | 5080 | 5110–5120
Support:
4970 | 4960 | 4950 | 4920 | 4900 | 4880 | 4850
Key Structure Levels
5130: Invalidation level for the bearish scenario.
If price breaks above this level, the structure could shift from bearish to bullish.
4960: A key bearish structure level.
A clear break below may lead to further downside toward deeper support zones.
Notes
There is a high probability that the market may continue ranging within the H4 boundaries (503X – 497X).
Traders can trade the range in the short term and wait for a clear breakout to follow the next directional move.
⚠️ This plan is for reference only. Always manage risk and position size carefully.
Gold drops 7% – will Nonfarm influence next move?After dropping nearly 7%, gold is starting to stabilize and move into a sideways consolidation phase as selling pressure weakens and buyers begin to step in to support the price.
In the short term, gold may continue to trade sideways for 1–2 more sessions, at least until the Nonfarm Payrolls data is released — one of the most important reports that could determine whether gold will rebound or continue its downward trend.
Macro View
For now, the market situation appears to be easing slightly:
• Iran is reportedly open to discussions about ending the war (according to NY Times)
• The U.S. announced maritime risk insurance support in the Persian Gulf
• Oil prices are stabilizing
However, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, increasing the risk of global energy supply disruptions.
If this situation persists, oil prices could surge and inflation may return, which could make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates soon — a factor that is not particularly positive for gold.
Additionally, markets are also watching:
• Trump’s proposed 15% global tax plan
• Kevin Warsh being considered as the next Fed Chair
These factors could significantly influence rate expectations and USD strength in the coming period.
Technical Levels
Resistance
5195 | 5227 | 5280
Support
5125 – 5130 | 5100 | 5080 – 5086 | 5066 | 5035
Trading Strategy
With the market currently in a sideways phase, the reasonable strategy is:
• Look for sell opportunities when price rebounds to resistance zones
• Or consider short-term buys near support if reversal signals appear
My View
I still favor the bearish scenario for gold, with a medium-term target around 4930 – 4900.
The current sideways movement may simply be a consolidation phase before the market chooses its next direction, and the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report could act as the key catalyst.
What do you think?
Do you expect gold to:
🔻 Continue falling toward 5000 – 4930 or 🔺 Rebound back toward the 5200+ area?
Feel free to share your view in the comments.
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