XAUUSD: ABC Structure Indicates Buy-Zone RetestGold is moving inside a medium-term ABC structure, and the latest reaction shows price rejecting slightly from the upper resistance area around 4,730–4,770. From Kelly’s view, this rejection does not fully cancel the recovery outlook. Instead, it suggests the market may need one more corrective pullback before attempting the next upside leg.
⟡ Market structure
The broader chart is still moving inside a rising channel, with price reacting from the lower support area near 4,366 before pushing back higher. The recovery has reached the resistance zone near 4,738–4,773, where sellers have started to appear.
This makes the current move more likely to develop as a corrective retest towards the buy zone before continuation.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,738–4,773: strong resistance and target area
◌ 4,638: mid-range support
◌ 4,458–4,470: buy zone retest
◌ 4,366: major support and invalidation area
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing a medium-term ABC recovery structure. The current rejection may be part of a short corrective phase before wave C attempts to extend higher.
As long as price holds above the lower support structure, the broader recovery path remains valid. A clean reaction from the buy zone would strengthen the case for another move towards the upper target area.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to correct into the 4,458–4,470 buy zone and watch for bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,458–4,470
Stop loss: below 4,366
Take profit 1: 4,638
Take profit 2: 4,738
Take profit 3: 4,773
If price breaks below 4,366, the bullish ABC recovery structure would weaken and the market may need a new interpretation.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is not a chase-the-top structure. Gold has already rejected from resistance, so the cleaner idea is to wait for a pullback into the buy zone and observe whether buyers step back in.
The recovery is still alive.
But the best structure may come after a controlled retest, not after chasing resistance.
Share your view below.
Long
