USDJPY renews one-year high near 150.00USDJPY extends Friday’s rebound from the nine-week-old rising support line while printing the fresh high of the year 2023. It’s worth noting, however, that the overbought RSI (14) line and lackluster MACD signals suggest hardships for the pair buyers moving forward. Also challenging the upside is the 150.00 psychological magnet and a seven-month-old ascending trend channel’s top line, surrounding 151.00. In a case where the Yen pair stays firmer past 151.00, the previous yearly high of around 151.95 and the 152.00 round figure could lure the bulls. Following that, a gradual run-up towards the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to January 2023 downside, close to 158.80, is highly expected.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned immediate support line joins the late October 2022 swing high to challenge the short-term USDJPY bears around the 148.90-85 zone. However, the quote’s weakness past 148.85 will make it vulnerable to dropping toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of around 146.70. Should the Yen pair sellers keep the reins past 146.70, June’s high of around 145.00 might become their favorite. Above all, a convergence of the stated bullish channel’s top line and 61.8% Fibonacci ratio, close to 142.60, becomes the key to witnessing a reversal of the seven-month-long bullish trend.
Overall, USDJPY’s pullback appears overdue but the bulls are more likely to keep the reins. USDJPY bulls struggle within rising wedge, focus on 147.30USDJPY stays defensive at an 11-month high, losing upside momentum after a three-week winning streak, as market players await this week’s key Japan inflation data, as well as the US Durable Goods Orders. Also, sluggish RSI (14) line and MACD signals add restrictions to moves and challenge the Yen pair buyers. Furthermore, a rising wedge bearish chart formation comprising levels marked since early August also keeps the pair sellers hopeful. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and the stated wedge’s bottom line, close to 147.30 at the latest, becomes necessary for the sellers to retake control. Even so, the 200-SMA and the monthly low, respectively around 146.40 and 144.45, may test the buyers ahead of highlighting the rising wedge’s theoretical target of 140.30 and 140.00.
On the contrary, the latest high of around 148.50 guards the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair ahead of the stated wedge’s top line of around 149.00. In a case where the Yen pair remains firmer past 149.00, the 150.00 round figure and the previous yearly high of around 152.00 could lure the pair buyers. Following that, the June 1990 peak of around 155.80 will act as the last defense of the bears.
Overall, USDJPY bears appear tiring but the buyers seem determined to give a tough tight before leaving the throne. USDJPY edges higher within multi-month-old bullish channelUSDJPY defends a two-week uptrend within an ascending trend channel established since early March. In doing so, the Yen pair stays near an upper limit of the stated channel, recently wobbling between the 21-day SMA and a one-month-long resistance line. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line suggests the bullish exhaustion while the MACD also lacks directional momentum and hence a pullback towards the 21-day SMA level of around 146.55 appears imminent. Adding strength to the stated SMA support is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn. In a case where the Yen pair drops below 146.55, July’s peak of 144.90 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 142.55 can test the bears before allowing them to challenge the key supports, namely the 100-day SMA and the aforementioned channel’s bottom line which are around 141.80 and 141.40 respectively.
Meanwhile, an ascending trend line from mid-August, close to 148.80, guards immediate recovery of the USDJPY pair ahead of the bullish channel’s top line, close to 149.80 at the latest. Following that, the 150.00 psychological magnet and 150.30 levels may test the Yen pair buyers. In a case where the risk-barometer pair stays firmer past 150.30, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards challenging the previous yearly peak of around 152.00 can’t be ruled out.
To sum up, USDJPY buyers keep the reins at the start of the Fed week, even as Japan’s national holiday and sluggish upside momentum prod the bulls of late.
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