USDJPY - POTENTIAL REVERSAL FROM KEY SUPPORT LEVELSSymbol - USDJPY
CMP - 147.82
Following a significant decline in USDJPY, The price is approaching a strong support zone which is held since July 2024. The fundamental environment has been volatile recently, with a predominant influence from Trump's tariffs & US economic factors. Given the recent price action near support zone 148.00 - 147.00, there is a possibility that the pair could rebound from this level. The market’s current hesitation near this support zone suggests that the bulls may be preparing to defend this area.
The aggressive sell-off in US dollar, while exerting downward pressure, is also at oversold levels & creating a scenario where a potential reversal could take place, supported by the decline of Japanese Yen. Should the price manage to hold above the 147.20 support, it could signal the reversal.
From a technical perspective, there are two potential triggers on the chart: one signaling a buy and the other signaling a sell. However, given the prevailing global and local forex trends, the preference is to take a long position.
Resistance levels: 148.85, 150.00
Support levels: 147.25, 146.90
At present, the market is in a downtrend, with potential for a counter-trend correction. The direction of the price will depend on the US dollar's performance and upcoming economic news. If the outcome is favorable, the price could potentially reach to 150.00 & 152.15 levels. USDJPY - A REBOUND FOLLOWING DOLLAR STRENGTHSymbol - USDJPY
CMP - 150.25
USDJPY pair is experiencing an upward movement in line with the performance of the US dollar. A temporary reversal is currently unfolding, driven by domestic political and economic factors in the United States.
The price is consolidating in the range of 149.40 - 148.60 after a significant decline. This long-term consolidation is creating a reversal pattern, further supported by the reversal and strengthening of the US dollar. Consequently, the Japanese yen is losing ground.
Key resistance is located at 150.30, should the bulls manage to maintain support above this level, there is potential for further price appreciation toward trend resistance in the short to medium term.
Resistance levels: 150.30, 150.95
Support levels: 149.40, 149.15
At present, the market is in a downtrend, with potential for a counter-trend correction. The direction of the price will depend on the US dollar's performance and upcoming economic news. If the outcome is favorable, the price could potentially reach 152.30 USDJPY - RETEST OF RESISTANCE BEFORE FURTHER FALLSymbol - USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair has disrupted the previous bullish market structure, with the U.S. dollar currently in a correction phase, which positively impacts the market. The pair is approaching a retest of the trendline that was recently broken, following a strong impulse move.
On Thursday, the Japanese yen reached a 10-week high, causing the USDJPY pair to decline to 149.50 This move is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets amidst escalating trade tensions, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies. Additionally, the yen has gained further strength, bolstered by market expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, making the currency more attractive to investors.
At present, attention is focused on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance zone at 150.95, as well as the previously broken upward support level.
Key Support Levels: 149.50, 148.64
Key Resistance Levels: 150.95, 151.40
It is likely that the price will first test the previously broken support zone, now acting as resistance between 150.95 and 151.40, before any potential decline. A false breakout of these critical Fibonacci zones could lead to further downward movement in the pair. USDJPY - TRADING AT SUPPORT LEVELSSymbol - USDJPY
USDJPY has encountered support and appears to have staged a false breakdown of the lower boundary of the prevailing local trend. At present, the dollar is strengthening, which could present an opportunity for the currency pair to appreciate. The price is consolidating in a strong support zone, and the fundamental environment has been volatile recently, with a predominant influence from U.S. economic factors. Meanwhile, the prospect of interest rate hikes in Japan has largely been disregarded, with market participants focusing more on economic data from the West.
From a technical perspective, there are two potential triggers on the chart: one signaling a buy and the other signaling a sell. However, given the prevailing upward global and local trends, the preference is to take a long position. Should the currency pair manage to secure a close above the 151.90 - 151.95 range, we can anticipate further upward movement towards the target levels shown on the chart in both the short and medium terms.
Resistance levels: 151.95, 153.70, 154.00
Support levels: 151.00, 149.52
However, if the dollar continues its correction and the bulls fail to maintain the false support breakdown, a price return to 150.95 could trigger a support break, leading to a potential decline towards 148.60 USDJPY - RETEST OF SUPPORT BREAKDOWN. SELLING AHEAD?Symbol - USDJPY
USDJPY is unable to maintain its uptrend for the time being. Speculation about potential actions from the Bank of Japan is expected to surface. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to strengthen. The 158.45 level represents a significant resistance formed by bears, who are still exerting pressure on the market. This week, we anticipate active measures from the Bank of Japan, particularly an interest rate hike. While such actions are relatively rare, they could provide strong support for the currency pair. If Japan proceeds with this move, the pair may continue its correction from the 0.5 - 0.7 Fibonacci levels. In this case, key targets could include the zones at 153.25 and 152
Resistance levels: 156.55, 157.22
Support level: 155
A price drop below 155 could trigger aggressive selling. The rate decision in Japan is set for Friday, and until then, the price may remain in a consolidation phase. Selling Pressure at Resistance, Downtrend Forecasting AheadThe 4-hour chart of USD/JPY shows a clear bearish pattern after the price failed to break above a key resistance level around 152.000. The slight bounce we saw recently may have been a weak attempt to retest this level, but with the lack of strong buying momentum, the price seems to be preparing for a deeper decline.
The rebound and reaction at this resistance area is typical of a distribution market, where previous buyers may be looking to cut their losses, and new sellers are entering the market. The 34 EMA has crossed below the 89 EMA, a sign that the downtrend may continue.
I appreciate the retest of the resistance level and see this as an opportunity to consider short positions. If the price breaks below the current support around 150,280, this could initiate a new bearish phase, towards the next support level around 149,000.
Long
