USDJPY: Near Resistance 156.70, Consolidation Awaits DirectionUSDJPY is currently trading around 154.62, approaching the key resistance level of 156.70 after recovering from strong support at 152.24. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 lines are near the current price, acting as dynamic resistance and hindering further upward momentum.
The RSI indicator is hovering at a neutral level of 48, indicating a consolidating market with no clear trend. If the price fails to break through the resistance at 156.70, it is likely to pull back to the support levels at 153.70 or even 152.24.
The primary driver of USDJPY's trend is the strengthening USD, supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, along with easing signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, any significant economic data from the US, particularly inflation figures or statements from the Fed, could strongly influence price action this week. Bullish momentum stalls amid resistanceUSD/JPY is currently trading around 154.57 after a strong rally. It seems that the bulls have run into pressure at the 155.00 resistance zone, while technical and market sentiment factors are also influencing the next direction of the pair.
Technical analysis:
Nearest resistance: 155.00 - a strong psychological resistance zone where the price is struggling to overcome.
Nearest support: 154.00 - a key support level, if broken, the price could fall further to 153.00.
EMA 34 and EMA 89: The price is trading around EMA 34 (short-term support), but is still above EMA 89, suggesting that the medium-term uptrend is still in place.
Price pattern: There are signs of a pause, with the possibility of forming a "Pullback" pattern or a slight reversal before continuing the main trend.
Personal opinion:
I see the market facing a dilemma between buying and selling forces. The recent increase in USD is supported by high US bond yields and positive market sentiment. However, if it fails to break above the 155.00 zone, USD/JPY may correct slightly before looking for new momentum to continue rising.
Trading strategy:
Buy: When the price breaks above 155.00, the next target is 156.00.
Sell: When the price falls below 154.00, the next support target is 153.00. Next Target Fibonacci ExtensionLooking at the USD/JPY 4-hour chart, I see that the uptrend remains quite strong, with the price trading above both the 34 EMA and the 89 EMA, suggesting that the bullish momentum continues to hold. Based on the Fibonacci extension analysis, I am particularly interested in the 1.618 level around 157.00, which could be the next key resistance.
I expect a short-term correction before continuing the uptrend towards this target. If the price falls towards the 0.618 Fibonacci support near 154.00, this would be an ideal opportunity to look for a long entry. Conversely, if the price breaks above 157.00, the uptrend could be further reinforced, while if the momentum weakens, the price could trade sideways around the EMAs. 
Long
USDJPY fades month-old bullish trend on BoJ’s cautious pauseUSDJPY snapped a three-day winning streak even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held benchmark interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, after its two-day monetary policy meeting early Thursday. In doing so, the Yen pair also challenged a five-week-old bullish trend channel.
Bulls lack acceptance but bears have a bumpy road ahead…
Apart from the BoJ’s hawkish halt, sluggish MACD and RSI conditions, along with the USDJPY pair’s inability to cross a month-old rising resistance line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-September downside, suggest a weakening of bullish bias. A slew of key supports, however, might challenge the sellers before taking control.
Key technical levels to watch
The aforementioned upward-sloping trend channel’s bottom line, close to 152.80, gains the immediate attention of the sellers ahead of the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 152.20 at the latest. Following that, the USDJPY sellers can aim for the 150.00 threshold and the 200-EMA support of 149.00. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 149.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio and September’s peak, respectively near 148.10 and 147.20, will act as the final defense of the buyers.
On the contrary, USDJPY needs a clear upside break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 153.45, also known as the golden ratio, to convince buyers. Even so, a month-long ascending trend line and a horizontal hurdle established since mid-July, close to 154.80 and 155.30-40, will challenge the Yen pair’s further advances. If the prices remain firmer past 155.40, the odds of witnessing a rally toward the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line surrounding 157.70 can’t be ruled out.
Focus on US data
As the BoJ’s cautious stance weighs on USDJPY buyers, traders will watch upcoming US inflation and employment data for further direction. USDJPY crosses 200-SMA to refresh 12-week high, focus on 152.00USDJPY has reached its highest point since July 31, rising for the third straight day after breaking the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) early Wednesday. However, a seven-month-old resistance zone around 151.85-152.00 limits further gains of the Yen pair.
Bulls need a strong push
The US Dollar’s strength and bullish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful. Yet, overbought RSI conditions and tough resistance mean a significant boost is necessary for further upward movement. Without this, the pair could quickly drop below the 200-SMA, leading to short-term selling.
Key technical levels to watch
In addition to the 200-SMA support at 151.35 and the resistance zone around 151.85-152.00, several important technical levels are crucial for USDJPY traders.
The 50% Fibonacci level near 150.80 will attract sellers if the price drops below the 200-SMA, along with the key threshold at 150.00. A drop to around 149.40 is possible if sellers gain control, and if the price falls past this level, September’s high of 147.20 and the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 144.85 will come into focus.
On the upside, a close above 152.00 could encourage buyers to target the 61.8% Fibonacci level, or Golden Ratio, near 153.40. If momentum continues, potential targets may include June’s low of 154.55 and the 78.6% level at 157.20.
Decisive move ahead…
While buyers seem in control, the struggle to surpass key resistance amid overbought conditions and upcoming PMI data could lead to a necessary pullback. Traders should proceed with caution as the next moves in USDJPY will be crucial. USDJPY: Bulls run out of steam, focus on US Retail Sales, 150.00USDJPY is stuck in a tight weekly trading range near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), hovering between 149.30 and 150.00, as traders are on the lookout for the US Retail Sales report coming Thursday.
Buyers need a strong boost to keep the reins
In addition to the nervousness ahead of the data release and the 200-day EMA, the fading bullish momentum in the MACD and a steady RSI near overbought levels show that USDJPY is struggling to attract buyers. However, trading above key EMAs makes it tough for sellers to gain control. While bulls are likely to stay in charge, a pullback seems expected unless the upcoming data gives the US Dollar a lift.
Key technical levels to watch
If the US Dollar falls after the data, watch for the 149.30 level comprising the lower band of the immediate trading range and the 200-day EMA as key support. Following that, a quick drop to the 147.30-20 zone, including the 50-day EMA, is possible. However, the quote’s sustained weakness past 147.20 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its July-September downside, close to 144.85.
On the upside, buyers need to break above 150.00 to maintain control. If they do, a rise towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at approximately 150.80 and 153.50 is likely.
Buyers are still optimistic, but it all hinges on the US data
Despite challenges for USDJPY buyers, solid support levels and potentially positive US data hint at further gains. This is especially true with the Bank of Japan's easing hawkish stance and expectations for fewer rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. USD/JPY Daily & H4 Analysis: Sell Setup Near Strong Supply ZoneOn the Daily timeframe, USD/JPY is currently trading near a strong Supply zone around 149.50 - 150.00, which has previously acted as a significant resistance level. This area is historically known for providing strong selling pressure, making it a potential zone to watch for bearish opportunities.
Technical Insights:
Daily Supply Zone: Price is testing a critical supply area, indicating that the upward momentum may be stalling as it approaches this resistance. The previous interactions with this zone have resulted in price rejections.
Bearish Divergence on H4: On the H4 timeframe, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is showing bearish divergence. While price has been making higher highs, the AO is printing lower highs, signaling weakening buying momentum and increasing chances of a reversal.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Look for a bearish reversal pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar) on lower timeframes (H4 or H1) to confirm entry. Ideally, wait for a strong rejection from the supply zone.
Stop Loss: Above the 150.00 level, just beyond the supply zone, to minimize risk from potential false breakouts.
Target: Initial target around 148.00, with potential to extend toward 147.00 if momentum continues in favor of sellers.
This setup aligns with both technical signals and price action, offering a good opportunity to short the pair if the conditions are met.
FX:USDJPY OANDA:USDJPY FOREXCOM:USDJPY USDJPY: Sellers pay attention to 146.40, Fed Minutes and US CPIEarly Tuesday, USDJPY remains weak after retreating from a seven-week high. The pair defends the previous day’s pullback from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as traders await key events this week, including the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Bulls remain in the driver’s seat
Despite the pre-data consolidation and retreat from the 100-EMA, USDJPY's stronghold above the 50-EMA, bullish MACD signals, and a positive RSI (14) suggest an overall upside bias.
Important technical levels to watch
USDJPY faces immediate downside support in the 147.35-20 range, but the key level to watch is the 50-EMA near 146.40. A break below this could lead to a quick drop to 145.00 and the late September low around 141.65. The 140.45-20 area and the psychological level at 140.00 may pose strong resistance for sellers.
On the upside, a break above the 100-EMA around 148.75 won’t be enough for buyers to regain control, as resistance from the 200-EMA and mid-August high near 149.40 will be crucial. If USDJPY stays above 149.40, the 150.00 mark and early 2024 high near 150.90 will be key targets for bulls.
Data/events are the key
USDJPY's technical outlook is bullish, supported by a hawkish Fed stance following recent comments from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and the US employment report. However, growing concerns about the Bank of Japan, potential softness in US inflation data, and Powell's challenges in maintaining a hawkish tone could attract sellers to the Yen pair.
