USDJPY: Bears have strong reasons to regain controlAs Yen traders return from a long weekend, the USDJPY is testing its recent dip from a five-week-old downward resistance line, influenced by a rebound in the US Dollar. It’s worth noting that the quote’s recovery in the last week benefited from positive signals from the RSI and MACD indicators, bouncing back from a nine-month horizontal support zone.
Sellers keep the reins
While USDJPY buyers are making their presence felt, a bearish RSI divergence and a moving average crossover, combined with the resistance line, keep sellers optimistic about potential downward moves. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed below the 200-EMA, signaling a bearish trend. Additionally, the higher high on the indicator contrasts with the lower high in prices, reinforcing the bearish RSI divergence.
Key technical levels to watch
Sellers will gain confidence if USDJPY breaks below a seven-week horizontal support area around 141.70-80. However, the lows from December 2023 and September 2024 pose a challenge for bears at 140.20-139.60. If the pair drops below 139.60, it could test the mid-2023 low near 137.30.
On the flip side, buyers will initially target the falling resistance line around 144.25. If successful, they may then aim for the monthly high and late August peak near 147.20 and 149.40, respectively. Additionally, the 150.00 level acts as an important barrier for any upward movement.
Bulls face more challenges than bears
Whether through technical signals or the differing monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), USDJPY sellers face a relatively smoother journey compared to buyers. USDJPY: Sellers remain in driver’s seat despite BoJ’s status quoEarly Friday, USDJPY reverses the previous day’s run-up to the highest level in a fortnight as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) leaves monetary policy unchanged, as expected.
Oscillators, technical hurdles push back buyers within falling wedge
USDJPY recently reversed from a six-week resistance level, and the RSI is pulling back while the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover, which keeps sellers optimistic. Additionally, the price remains below the 200-Exponential Moving Average, making it harder for Yen buyers. However, a bullish falling wedge pattern that has formed since early August could encourage buyers.
Technical levels to watch
The USDJPY pair's drop from a key resistance level, along with weak indicators, suggests sellers will target below 142.00. Key levels to watch are the psychological mark at 140.00 and the monthly low around 139.55. If buyers can’t hold above the falling wedge's bottom near 139.30, the price could drop to the mid-2023 low around 137.20.
On the flip side, the 1.5-month-old horizontal resistance area near 143.70-144.00 appears a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bulls. Following that, the quote’s quick jump toward the stated bullish wedge’s top line around 145.00 can’t be ruled out. If the price stays above 145.00, it could aim for 156.00, but breaking the 200-EMA at 145.30 is essential for that rally.
What next?
Given the monetary policy divergence between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as the quote’s sustained trading below the key resistances, the USDJPY sellers are likely to have some more days to cheer. USDJPY: "Death Cross" makes sellers optimisticUSDJPY ends a four-day decline and rebounds from its lowest point in a month as traders start the US inflation week with mixed feelings, especially after a disappointing employment report on Friday.
Sellers are in control
Despite the brief pause to recover from an ascending support line from late December 2023, the "Death Cross" on the moving averages and a possible bearish cross on the MACD suggest that sellers remain dominant.
Technical levels to watch
Given that the RSI is nearly oversold and the market is adjusting its previous movements, USDJPY might continue its recent recovery towards a resistance zone from a month ago, around 143.45-60. After that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early August, near 146.60, will challenge buyers before they can take full control. If they succeed, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from July 2023 to 2024, around 149.60, and the 200-SMA level at 151.05 could attract more buying interest.
On the other hand, sellers might look for a daily close below a long-term rising support line, around 141.90. They should also watch for the late 2023 low around 140.25 and the 140.00 level, which could provide additional support before aiming for the mid-2023 low of 137.25.
What next?
The USDJPY pair might see a rebound as the market consolidates before the important US inflation data is released on Thursday. However, the bearish trend will continue unless the price stays below the 200-SMA. USDJPY Deepens Decline: Support at 144.500, Target 143.000On the 3-hour chart, USDJPY is declining, approaching a key support level at 144.500, a level that has been tested and may react in the short term.
If the price tests this support and doesn't recover strongly, it is likely to continue its downtrend with the next target at 143.000.
The 89 and 34 EMAs act as resistance levels at 145.776 and 145.718, reinforcing the downward trend.
RSI at 42.88, near the oversold zone, indicates the price may drop further before a slight upward correction.
Investors may consider selling if the price breaks the 144.500 support, with a short-term target at 143.000.
Regarding news: Inflation data from Japan and the U.S. will impact USDJPY. If Japan's inflation remains low, the Yen could weaken further. USDJPY: Off 13-month-old support during short-term downtrendUSDJPY has bounced back from a key support level that’s been in place for 13 months but remains in a short-term downtrend. The pair faces resistance from this old support line, now turned resistance, and the 21-day moving average (SMA).
USDJPY recovery appears unreal…
Although USDJPY is recovering from significant trendline support of around 143.70, indicators like the RSI and MACD suggest a strong bullish trend may not be likely. Additionally, market uncertainty before upcoming Japanese economic data and the US Core PCE Price Index (a key inflation measure) adds to the uncertainty.
Key technical levels to watch…
USDJPY pair’s recovery appears less convincing unless it crosses the 200-SMA hurdle of 151.20. That said, the 21-SMA and the multi-month-old previous support line, respectively near 146.40 and 149.80, quickly followed by the 150.00 threshold, will challenge the buyers before giving them control.
On the contrary, a daily closing beneath the 143.70 trend line support will direct the USDJPY bears toward the late 2023 bottom surrounding 140.45 and the 140.00 psychological magnet. In a case where the prices remain bearish past 140.00, an area comprising levels marked since March 2023, close to 137.90-70, will be the last defense of the buyers.
What next?
USDJPY is at a critical support level. A short-term bounce is possible, but the chance of further declines is higher unless the pair breaks through the 151.20 resistance. 
Education
USDJPY sellers keep eyes on 144.00 and FOMC MinutesThe USDJPY pair is currently recovering from its lowest point in two weeks and breaking a three-day losing streak. The US Dollar is bouncing back from a yearly low as traders await the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Despite this bounce, the Yen pair is still trading below important Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and shows bearish signs from the MACD indicator, keeping sellers optimistic.
If the USDJPY continues to drop, it might soon test the 144.00 support level, which has held for about 12 days. A fall below 144.00 could push the pair towards the July low of around 141.70. However, the Yen pair will need to move past the 50% Fibonacci Extension near 141.30 before targeting 140.00 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension around 139.40-35.
On the upside, the 50 and 100 EMAs are likely to cap the USDJPY’s immediate gains, with resistance levels around 147.10 and 148.50. Beyond that, the pair might face resistance at the previous weekly high near 149.40 and the 150.00 level. If it breaks above 150.00, the final resistance points are at the 200-EMA level around 151.15 and the late July swing low near 151.95.
In summary, while the USDJPY is currently recovering, the bears remain in control as traders await key news.
Long
