USD/JPY WEEKLY ANALYSIS : AIM BUY TO SWEEP FVG D1Market Structure Analysis OANDA:USDJPY
Trend: The overall market structure of USD/JPY is in an uptrend. This is confirmed by the higher highs and higher lows that have been established previously. However, the price has recently been trading sideways and consolidating within a wide range.
Order Blocks and Liquidity:
Sell Zone: The price has repeatedly failed to break above the recent high, creating a strong resistance zone from ~149.000 to ~149.200, which contains large sell-side Order Blocks. Above this zone is a large FVG (Fair Value Gap) and a key liquidity zone, making it an attractive target for buyers.
Buy Zone: Below the current low, there are two crucial support zones:
Imbalance & OB Buy: The price range from ~146.500 to ~146.900 contains an Imbalance (liquidity void) and a potential Order Block. This is a high-probability area that will attract the price to retrace and potentially trigger a bounce.
Lower OB Buy: Below the Imbalance, there is an even stronger buy-side Order Block (OB) at ~146.000, identified as a final strong support zone before the bullish structure is invalidated.
Breakout Points: A strong resistance line, referred to as "Break Davas Points," has been established at ~149.200. A definitive break and candle close above this level would be an extremely strong signal confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
Detailed Trading Plan
Based on the analysis above, there are two main trading scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Wait for Buy - Primary Plan)
Strategy: Wait for the price to correct lower to find a potential buy entry.
Entry:
Option 1 (Moderate Risk): Place a pending buy order in the Imbalance & OB Buy zone (~146.500 - 146.900).
Option 2 (Lower Risk): Place a pending buy order in the lower OB Buy zone (~146.000). This is the most ideal entry point.
Reasoning: These are strong support zones where "Smart Money" is highly likely to enter buy orders to push the price up.
Take Profit:
TP1: The FVG resistance zone at the top (~149.500).
TP2: The higher high (~150.500).
Stop Loss:
For Option 1: Place it below the Imbalance zone (~146.400).
For Option 2: Place it below the OB Buy zone (~145.800).
Scenario 2 (Breakout - Secondary Plan)
Strategy: Trade on the momentum of an upward breakout.
Entry: Wait for the price to break and close above the "Break Davas Points" (~149.200). You can wait for a retest of this zone before entering to increase safety.
Reasoning: A break of this resistance line confirms that buyers have fully regained control and are ready to push the price to higher levels.
Take Profit: Similar to Scenario 1, targeting the FVG zone and higher highs.
Stop Loss: Place it below the breakout point (below 149.200).
Note: The primary plan of waiting to buy at a strong support zone is safer and offers a better R:R (Risk-to-Reward) ratio. It's crucial to combine this plan with other confirmation signals (such as a reversal candlestick pattern) before entering a trade to maximize your probability of success.
Long