Crude - Will Fizzle out the same way it always does! Crude/ NaturalGas have been in oversupply for quite some time now.
Especially, Crude - where all Govts are putting in efforts to reduce dependence.
Natural Gas has at least one source where consumption is increasing - Gas based power plants.
My view is that Crude (and NG) is fundamentally getting disrupted and hence will remain low, albeit a few spikes - led by supply shocks.
Stories will be built on this time it's different - As were being built around NG, when it spiked because of an intense Arctic cold wave across the US and Europe. NG fizzled out much sooner than the cold wave subsided.
Went up 140% in 2 weeks and then gave back all those gains and broke previous lows in next 2. Now headed for another 50% drop as per me.
Here's the chart:
Now crude supply normalisation will take time, so it might not drop as fast. Today's high of 120 might get retested, but overall, we should head back to 50 or maybe 35.
As per EW - We have just done an X up. Once it's digested, we should head down in Y and break previous low.
Short