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XAUUSD Elliott Wave AnalysisGold Approaches Key Trendline Before Possible Wave 5 Extension Gold is showing a strong short-term recovery after building a clear base around the 4,500 – 4,520 area. The current structure suggests that buyers are gradually regaining control, but price is now approaching an important resistance and trendline zone near 4,690 – 4,700, where the next reaction will likely decide whether the bullish Elliott Wave sequence can continue. Market Context From the chart, XAUUSD has formed a strong rebound from the recent swing low near 4,502. The recovery is not moving randomly; it is developing with a cleaner impulsive structure, showing higher lows and stronger bullish candles into the current resistance area. At the moment, price is trading around 4,675, just below the upper reaction zone. This means gold is no longer in an early recovery phase — it is now testing a decision area. Elliott Wave Structure The current move can be read as a developing 5-wave bullish Elliott structure: Wave 1: Initial rebound from the 4,502 low toward the 4,580 area. Wave 2: Corrective pullback, holding above the prior low and confirming early buyer defense. Wave 3: Strong impulsive leg currently pushing toward the 4,690 – 4,700 resistance zone. Wave 4: If price rejects from the trendline area, a corrective pullback toward 4,615 – 4,625 could develop. Wave 5: If the pullback holds, the next bullish extension could target the upper Fibonacci zone near 4,810 – 4,820. The most important detail is that Wave 3 is approaching a trendline resistance, so chasing the move directly under this zone may not offer the cleanest structure. A Wave 4 correction would make the bullish setup healthier. Trendline & Fibonacci View The chart highlights a key trendline/supply zone around 4,690 – 4,700. This area also aligns with the projected Wave 3 reaction zone, making it a major short-term resistance. Below price, the Fibonacci retracement area around 4,615 – 4,625 stands out as the potential Wave 4 demand zone. If gold pulls back into this region and forms a stable reaction, it may prepare the market for a final Wave 5 continuation. The upside projection is located near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 4,818, which matches the upper target zone marked on the chart. Key Levels Current price area: 4,675 Trendline resistance: 4,690 – 4,700 Wave 4 support zone: 4,615 – 4,625 Deeper support: 4,575 – 4,585 Major invalidation area: below 4,500 Wave 5 target zone: 4,810 – 4,820 Scenario & Expectation Primary scenario: Gold may first test the 4,690 – 4,700 trendline resistance. If price reacts from this area, a corrective Wave 4 pullback toward 4,615 – 4,625 would be reasonable. As long as this support zone holds, the structure can remain bullish, with Wave 5 aiming toward 4,810 – 4,820. Alternative scenario: If gold breaks cleanly above 4,700 without a meaningful pullback, bullish momentum could extend earlier than expected. In that case, price may continue toward the upper Fibonacci projection, but the move would need strong candle confirmation to avoid a false breakout. Invalidation scenario: If price loses the 4,615 – 4,625 zone and continues below 4,575, the bullish Elliott count would weaken. A deeper move back toward the 4,500 base could then become possible. Kelly’s View Kelly’s view is that gold remains technically constructive while price stays above the key Fibonacci support zone. However, the current position under the trendline resistance suggests that the market may need a short-term correction before the next bullish continuation becomes cleaner. The most attractive structure would be: trendline reaction → Wave 4 pullback → support hold → Wave 5 extension. Conclusion XAUUSD is building a promising Elliott Wave recovery from the 4,502 low. The next key test is the 4,690 – 4,700 trendline zone. A controlled pullback into 4,615 – 4,625 could create the foundation for a stronger Wave 5 move toward the 4,810 – 4,820 Fibonacci target area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
XAUUSD Elliott Wave SetupPOSITIONING FOR THE WAVE 3 CRASH TO 4,350 Market Structure & Wave Count Wave (1) Completion: The initial impulsive move to the downside has concluded at the "Strong Support" area (4,500 – 4,520), establishing a structural low and breaking the prior bullish A-B-C correction. Wave (2) Retracement: Price is currently completing a technical correction, pushing up to retest the "Sell zone wave 2" between 4,560 and 4,580. Wave (3) Confirmation: Strong price rejection at the current Sell Zone will confirm the end of the corrective phase and the start of Impulsive Wave (3)—typically the most powerful and aggressive move in an Elliott Wave sequence. Key Technical Levels Primary Sell Zone: 4,560 – 4,580. This supply cluster is where institutional bears are expected to re-establish dominant short positions. Interim Support: 4,500 – 4,520. Expect minor reactionary bounces at this strong support; however, this level is unlikely to hold against the heavy momentum of Wave (3). Downside Targets: The primary target for the upcoming Wave (3) is 4,429.831. The ultimate high-probability extension target for the completion of the 5-wave cycle is 4,351.913. Execution Strategy Bias: Heavily Bearish. Focus exclusively on high-probability short setups. Action Plan: Utilize the current Wave (2) retracement into the 4,560 – 4,580 block to build short exposure. A sustained break below the 4,500 structural low will confirm the acceleration phase of Wave (3). Invalidation: Any daily close above the Double Top peak at 4,640.561 completely invalidates the current bearish wave count. Outlook The price path is projected to expand lower through a 5-wave internal sub-structure. Following a powerful Wave (3) drop to 4,429.831 and a minor Wave (4) pullback towards 4,471.491, the market is aiming for the major liquidity pool near 4,351.913. Patience is the key. Trade the plan.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
XAUUSD Strategic AnalysisXAUUSD STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: BULLISH REVERSAL INITIATED Fundamental Analysis As of May 2026, Gold remains supported by a strong macroeconomic tailwind. Monetary Policy: Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are driving capital back into non-yielding safe-haven assets. Geopolitical Climate: Persistent global uncertainties and central bank gold accumulation continue to bolster long-term demand. Economic Indicators: Cooling inflation data is putting downward pressure on the USD, providing a natural catalyst for Gold's upward trajectory. Technical Analysis Based on the market structure identified in image_7492b8.png: Market Structure Shift (MSS): Price has successfully breached the previous short-term resistance, signaling a definitive transition from a bearish to a bullish trend. Fair Value Gap (FVG): The emergence of an imbalance between 4573 and 4583 serves as a high-probability demand zone where price is expected to seek support before the next leg up. Liquidity Objective: The overhead liquidity pool between 4680 and 4690 acts as a "magnet," targeting the stop-losses of early sellers. Key Price Levels Critical Support (Low): 4510.589 (The definitive invalidation level for the bullish trend). Structure Pivot (MSS): The recent breakout zone where trend momentum shifted. Primary Target (Liquidity): 4680 – 4690. Complete Trading Scenario Core Strategy: Buy on Retest Entry Zone: 4573 – 4583 Stop Loss: 4550 (Positioned safely below the FVG and local structure) Take Profit: TP1: 4647 (Previous high retest) TP2: 4685 (Final liquidity sweep target) Professional Insight: This setup is highly dependent on a successful retest of the FVG. Monitor for bullish price action—such as pin bars or engulfing candles—within the Entry Zone to confirm institutional buying interest before execution.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lilybelle_gl
Gold pauses below key resistance.Gold Tests Lower Support as 4710 Sell Zone Keeps Upside Limited Gold is showing renewed short-term weakness on the 2H chart as price breaks lower from the recent consolidation area and continues to trade beneath the 4710 sell zone. With technical pressure building and geopolitical negotiations still lacking a clear breakthrough, the market is shifting into a more cautious and corrective structure. Market Context Recent headlines added another layer of uncertainty after Donald Trump appeared dissatisfied with Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while delaying the nuclear issue. The main disagreement still revolves around Iran’s nuclear program and control over this critical shipping route, leaving negotiations without a decisive resolution. For gold, this creates an important balance. On one side, unresolved geopolitical tension can continue to support safe-haven demand. On the other, the lack of a clear breakthrough is not translating into aggressive upside momentum at this stage, especially as price remains technically heavy under key resistance. In the short term, the chart suggests that market participants are still choosing to fade rebounds rather than chase higher prices. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, gold is weakening after failing to reclaim the upper value area near 4710. This zone is marked clearly on the chart as the main sell zone and also aligns with the local POC, which makes it even more relevant from a volume perspective. Price has spent several sessions rotating just below that area, but every recovery attempt has remained limited. That repeated failure to break back above resistance suggests that supply is still active and that the market is accepting lower prices rather than rebuilding bullish momentum. Another important detail is the current move away from the 0.618 area near 4614. After holding above that support for some time, price is now pressing lower, which opens the door for a deeper retracement toward the next key Fibonacci zone around 4531. This area stands out on the chart as a strong resistance-turned-reaction zone, and it may become the next major level where buyers attempt to respond. Volume profile also supports the idea of a market losing strength near the top of the recent range. Price is no longer holding around the higher-value cluster and is instead rotating down from it. In this context, the rejection from 4710 looks less like a pause and more like continuation pressure inside a broader corrective move. Key Levels Sell zone / POC resistance: 4710 Near-term support: 4614 Major Fibonacci reaction zone: 4531 Higher reference above: 4737 Broader upside extreme: 4893 Scenario & Expectation The preferred scenario remains bearish continuation unless gold can reclaim the upper resistance zone. As long as price stays below 4710, the market may continue to trade with a heavy tone and extend lower toward the 4614 support area. If that level fails to hold cleanly, the next important downside reference comes in around 4531, where the chart shows a stronger Fibonacci reaction zone and a potential area for buyers to re-engage. From a structural standpoint, this would be a natural rotation lower inside the current corrective phase. The market has already shown that upside attempts are being sold into, and until price can recover the sell zone with stronger acceptance, rallies are likely to remain limited. On the other hand, if gold manages to reclaim 4710 and hold above it, the immediate downside pressure would begin to soften. That would suggest the market is no longer fully accepting lower prices, and the short-term structure would need to be reassessed from a more neutral stance. Conclusion Gold is currently trading in a weaker short-term structure, with the 4710 sell zone continuing to cap recovery attempts and price beginning to rotate toward lower Fibonacci support. Although geopolitical tension remains unresolved, the chart shows that sellers still have the upper hand for now. Unless resistance is reclaimed decisively, the market continues to favor a move toward 4614 first, with 4531 standing out as the next major reaction zone below.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lilybelle_gl
Gold faces selling pressure at key resistance.Gold Holds Below 4739 as Supply Pressure Continues to Limit Recovery Gold remains in a technically fragile position on the 4H chart as price continues to trade below the 4739 sell zone, with every recovery attempt still struggling to regain meaningful upside traction. Although the market has shown some short-term stabilization after the recent decline, the overall structure remains corrective, and buyers have not yet done enough to shift the tone back in their favor. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, gold is still trading under pressure after breaking below the previous rising trendline support. That breakdown was an important structural signal because it marked the end of the earlier bullish path and shifted the market into a weaker short-term phase. Since then, price has not produced a strong recovery. Instead, it has remained compressed beneath resistance, showing that bullish momentum is fading rather than rebuilding. The rebounds are shallow, and follow-through to the upside remains limited, which usually reflects a market that is still being controlled by supply. The 4739 area continues to stand out as the key sell zone. Price is now trading just under this region, and that matters because it shows the market is still unable to reclaim the area where sellers previously became active. As long as gold stays capped below 4739, the structure continues to favor a corrective downside bias rather than a fresh bullish expansion. Volume profile also supports this view. The market is no longer holding near the higher-value area and instead appears to be rotating away from it. This suggests that current price acceptance is developing below resistance, not above it. In other words, buyers are present, but they are still not strong enough to force a meaningful reclaim of the upper zone. Another important detail is the current price behavior itself. Rather than trending decisively higher, gold is now consolidating under resistance after the trendline break. This type of compression often signals hesitation before the next move, and in the current context, that hesitation still favors the downside while the sell zone remains intact. Key Levels Sell zone / resistance: 4739 Major reaction support: 4556 Buy zone / POC: 4404 Lower structural support: 4352 Scenario & Expectation The preferred scenario remains a rejection from resistance followed by another move lower. As long as gold remains below 4739, the market is likely to continue trading with a heavy tone. A failure to reclaim this area would keep sellers in control and maintain pressure on price to rotate lower once again. In that case, 4556 remains the first key downside reference, as the chart already highlights it as an important reaction zone. If price reaches 4556 and fails to attract a stronger response, then the next area to watch comes in around 4404. This buy zone is significant because it aligns with the POC and suggests a deeper area of interest where stronger demand could begin to re-enter the market. Below that, 4352 remains the lower structural support and would become relevant if the correction extends further. On the other hand, if gold manages to reclaim 4739 and hold above it with stronger acceptance, the current bearish pressure would begin to weaken. That would suggest the market is no longer accepting lower prices as easily, and the short-term structure would need to be reassessed from a more neutral perspective. Conclusion Gold is still trading in a corrective and technically vulnerable structure on the 4H chart, with the 4739 sell zone continuing to cap recovery attempts and the earlier trendline breakdown still shaping the broader short-term bias. For now, the market has not shown enough strength to confirm a bullish recovery. Until resistance is reclaimed, gold remains exposed to another leg lower, with 4556 as the first important downside level and 4404 standing out as the more meaningful demand zone below.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lilybelle_gl
Gold Bearish Under 4739Gold Slips Below Trendline as 4739 Sell Zone Caps Recovery Gold is showing increasing technical weakness on the 4H chart as price trades below the former rising trendline and continues to struggle under the 4739 sell zone. The current structure suggests that upside momentum is fading, while the market begins to lean toward a deeper corrective move. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, gold has broken away from the previous buying path after losing support from the ascending trendline. Since that breakdown, price has remained heavy and continues to rotate below the nearby resistance zone. The 4739 area is now acting as a clear sell zone. Recent price action failed to reclaim this level, confirming that supply is still active and that buyers are not yet strong enough to rebuild momentum above resistance. Volume profile also adds weight to the current bearish bias. The chart shows that price is moving away from the upper value area, while the lower high structure remains visible on the right side of the chart. This reflects fading bullish participation and a market that is gradually accepting lower prices. As long as gold stays below the broken trendline and below 4739, the technical structure remains vulnerable to further downside expansion. Key Levels Sell zone / resistance: 4739 Broken dynamic support: Former ascending trendline Major reaction support: 4556 Buy zone / POC: 4404 Lower structural support: 4352 Scenario & Expectation The preferred scenario remains bearish continuation. As long as price stays below 4739, gold may continue extending lower toward 4556, which is the first important reaction zone on the chart. If selling pressure remains firm and that support fails to hold, the market could move deeper into the 4404 buy zone, where the volume profile suggests stronger interest may return. The 4352 level remains the deeper structural support if the correction extends further. On the other hand, if price reclaims 4739 and starts holding above it with stronger acceptance, the immediate bearish pressure would weaken and the structure would need to be reassessed. Conclusion Gold is currently trading in a weaker technical position after losing its rising trendline and failing to recover above the 4739 sell zone. With price now shifting away from resistance and structure turning heavier on the 4H chart, the market continues to favor a move toward lower support and liquidity zones, with 4556 and 4404 standing out as the key downside references.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lilybelle_gl
XAUUSD: Rebound Hits Sell ZoneGold is pushing back into a sensitive resistance area, but the rebound still does not look strong enough to shift the broader structure back into a bullish trend. From Kelly’s view, this move still reads more like a corrective recovery than the start of a clean upside reversal. Price is now testing the 4695–4710 sell zone, while also reacting around a descending trendline. That combination makes this area important, because it is where the market may decide whether the rebound can extend further or roll back into the dominant bearish structure. Technical structure The broader chart still looks defensive. Price has bounced from the 4670 support area, but the recovery remains limited and uneven. More importantly, gold is still trading below the higher resistance layers, which means buyers have created a rebound, but not a real structural reversal. The current setup is notable for three reasons: price is retesting the 4695–4710 sell zone the rebound is running into trendline resistance the broader structure still shows lower highs and unfinished downside pressure As long as gold stays below the nearby resistance band, the rebound remains vulnerable to failure. Elliott Wave view From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current bounce still fits best as a wave 4 correction after the previous impulsive decline. If that count is correct, then the next meaningful move would likely be wave 5 lower. This is why the current rebound should be judged by its structure, not just by the fact that price is moving up. A true bullish reversal would normally reclaim resistance with stronger continuation and acceptance above it. So far, this recovery still looks corrective and contained. Fibonacci and liquidity structure The Fibonacci projection continues to support the bearish case. The downside path still leaves room toward the 1.618 extension, which aligns with the deeper liquidity zone near 4573. That matters because when a Fibonacci extension overlaps with a clear liquidity area, the zone often becomes a meaningful downside magnet if the market resumes trend. For now, the main references remain: 4695–4710 as the immediate resistance and sell zone 4670 as the first downside trigger 4573 as the deeper liquidity objective if bearish momentum expands What matters next If gold fails to break cleanly above the 4695–4710 zone and starts slipping back under 4670, the corrective rebound would likely be close to complete. That would strengthen the case for another bearish leg toward 4573. On the other hand, if buyers reclaim the sell zone, break the descending trendline, and build acceptance above nearby resistance, then the current bearish wave count would lose quality. For now, price is still reacting below resistance, not reclaiming it. Kelly’s view For Kelly, this remains a sell-the-rebound type of chart. The bounce from 4670 is visible, but it is unfolding into resistance, not through it. That keeps the broader bearish structure intact for now. As long as gold stays capped below the current sell zone and fails to reclaim higher resistance, Kelly’s preferred read remains that the market is finishing wave 4 and may still be preparing for wave 5 lower. Conclusion Gold is rebounding, but the structure still looks corrective rather than bullish. The 4695–4710 area is the key zone to watch. If resistance holds, gold may rotate back toward 4670 first, with 4573 remaining the deeper downside reference. The rebound is there. But structurally, the chart still suggests that the more important move may be lower.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
XAUUSD stagnates below selling zoneGold remains under short-term technical pressure as price continues to stay capped below the 4728–4735 sell zone. The current structure suggests that the market still lacks enough strength to reclaim higher ground, while the short-term bearish trend remains intact. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, gold has already lost its previous bullish structure and is now trading below a descending trendline that continues to act as dynamic resistance. Each rebound remains limited, which shows that sellers are still controlling the short-term price action. The reaction at 4728–4735 remains a key signal. This area continues to act as an active supply zone, as price retested it but failed to hold above it. At the same time, the lower-high structure remains unchanged, further supporting the case for continued weakness. The volume profile around the recent rebound also suggests that the market is accepting price below resistance rather than building momentum for a stronger recovery. In other words, current buying pressure is still not convincing enough to reclaim the lost value area. Key Levels Sell zone / resistance: 4728–4735 Dynamic resistance: Descending trendline Support 1: 4669 Support 2: 4645 Deeper liquidity zone: 4608 Scenario & Expectation The preferred scenario remains bearish continuation after short-term rebounds. Price may still retest the 4728–4735 area, but unless that zone is reclaimed and held, selling pressure is likely to remain dominant. If the current structure stays intact, gold could move back toward 4669 first. A break below that level would then expose 4645, followed by the deeper liquidity zone near 4608. On the other hand, if price manages to reclaim 4735 and hold above it, the short-term bearish structure would begin to weaken and the market would need to be reassessed. Conclusion Gold is still trading in a technically weak structure, with clear rejection from the 4728–4735 sell zone, pressure from the descending trendline, and an intact lower-high formation. Until this resistance area is decisively reclaimed, the market continues to favor a move toward lower liquidity levels.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lilybelle_gl
XAUUSD — Resistance now key focusXAUUSD — Wave 5 Sell Zone Now Becomes the Weekly Decision Point Gold is moving into next week with a very sensitive structure on the chart. The broader trend is no longer in clean expansion mode, and price is now testing a zone where the market must decide whether this is only a temporary rebound inside weakness, or the start of a deeper selloff. For Kelly, this is not the kind of chart to chase emotionally. This is the kind of chart where structure has to lead. Technical structure On the chart, gold is still trading inside a large descending channel, which keeps the broader medium-term tone defensive. The current recovery has pushed price back into the wave 5 sell zone around 4890–4920, and that area matters because it sits right under the upper half of the broader bearish structure. So far, buyers have managed to lift price into resistance, but they have not yet changed the higher-timeframe framework. Below current price, two technical layers stand out: 4554 as the first strong support 4400 area as the next liquidity zone Deeper than that, the chart still keeps a wider long-term target zone near 3700 on the map if the broader bearish wave sequence continues to develop. Wave structure From an Elliott perspective, the current rebound can be read as a recovery into a wave 5 sell area, not a confirmed bullish reversal. That is the key distinction. The market already printed a sharp decline, then rotated higher into resistance. When price rebounds into a mapped sell zone inside a descending channel, the cleaner interpretation is often that the market is completing a corrective phase before deciding whether to continue lower. For Kelly, that keeps the current move highly reactive. If buyers cannot reclaim and hold above the sell zone with real momentum, then this area can become the launch point for the next leg down. What matters next week The weekly map is relatively clean. Bearish scenario If gold remains capped below the 4890–4920 resistance band and starts slipping back under local support, the chart opens room toward 4554 first. If that floor gives way, the next rotation can extend into the 4400 liquidity zone. That path would keep the broader bearish channel intact and support the idea that the market is still trading toward a larger downside objective over time. Bullish invalidation scenario If buyers break and hold above the current sell zone with acceptance, then the bearish wave count weakens. That would force the market into a stronger recovery phase and delay the downside continuation. But right now, the chart is not there yet. Price is testing resistance, not reclaiming structure. Macro backdrop The macro side fits this more cautious technical picture. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has recently sounded careful about easing, with officials emphasizing that rates may need to stay unchanged for longer while inflation risks remain alive. At the same time, broader Fed commentary and Beige Book-style assessments have highlighted that Middle East conflict is adding to U.S. economic uncertainty. That mix can keep gold supported on fear, but it can also delay the kind of policy relief that usually gives gold a cleaner upside tailwind. For Kelly, that creates a market where macro uncertainty supports volatility, but not necessarily a clean bullish continuation. That is why the chart matters even more here. Kelly’s read This is still a resistance-led chart. Gold has rallied into a meaningful sell zone, but it is doing so inside a broader descending channel and without fully breaking the higher-timeframe bearish framework. That keeps the upside fragile unless buyers can prove much more above current levels. For Kelly, the cleaner view into next week is simple: as long as gold stays below the wave 5 sell zone, the path of least resistance remains vulnerable to another move lower. Conclusion Gold enters next week at a technical decision point. The rebound has reached the 4890–4920 wave 5 sell zone, but the broader chart still sits inside a descending channel, with 4554 and 4400 as the next major downside references if resistance holds. The rebound is visible — but unless price reclaims structure above resistance, the chart still looks like a setup where sellers may take control again.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
XAUUSD Weekly AnalysisGold Eyes Breakout as Rate Cut Expectations Rise Gold is entering the new week with a constructive recovery structure, supported by increasing expectations that the Fed may begin cutting interest rates as early as June. This shift in monetary outlook continues to weaken the broader USD narrative and provides a supportive backdrop for gold. Market Context The probability of a rate cut is gradually rising, signaling a softer policy stance ahead. This environment typically favors gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. As a result, gold remains well-supported on dips despite recent corrections. Technical Overview On the higher timeframe, gold is still trading below a descending trendline resistance, but the recent rebound from the strong support zone shows clear buying interest returning. Price is currently approaching the 4830–4850 region, which acts as a short-term pivot. A sustained move above this area could open the path toward the next resistance zones: 5010 – Sell zone resistance 5213 – Major resistance / liquidity zone At the same time, the 4672 buy swing zone remains a key support. This level defines the current buying structure — as long as price holds above it, the recovery scenario stays valid. Key Levels for the Week Resistance: 5010 → 5213 Current zone: ~4830 Support: 4672 Weekly Scenario The preferred scenario is a buying continuation after a pullback. In the early part of the week, gold may retest lower zones around 4700–4672 to build liquidity. If buyers defend this area, price could resume its upward move, targeting 5010 and potentially extending toward 5213 in the coming sessions. A confirmed breakout above the descending trendline would act as a strong signal that buying momentum is returning to the market. However, if gold breaks below 4672, the structure would weaken and delay the bullish outlook. Conclusion Gold is transitioning from correction to potential continuation, supported by both technical structure and improving macro conditions. The key focus this week will be whether price can hold support and break above dynamic resistance — setting the stage for a stronger move higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lilybelle_gl
XAUUSD Elliott structure indicates critical market turn.Gold Weekly Outlook — Elliott Structure Hints at a Critical Turn Gold is moving into a very important phase for next week, and the current structure suggests the market may be approaching the final part of a broader corrective cycle rather than starting a fresh impulsive rally. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the chart is showing a completed or nearly completed wave 4 rebound, with price now reacting into the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone around the 4750 area. This zone is important because it often acts as a natural resistance inside a larger bearish correction. The recent recovery has been technically clean, but it is also starting to lose impulsive character as price approaches this resistance cluster. What stands out here is the relationship between wave structure and Fibonacci behavior. After the strong decline into the wave 3 low, the market produced a rebound that fits the profile of a wave 4 correction. The current upside has retraced into a classic resistance pocket, while price remains below the broader structural ceiling. In this context, the market may be preparing for a potential wave 5 decline if rejection confirms from current levels. Technical focus for next week 4750 area → main resistance / wave 4 reaction zone 4400–4350 area → first structural support 4200 zone → deeper reaction level 3500 area → major long-term downside projection if wave 5 extends aggressively The key idea for next week is simple: if gold fails to reclaim and hold above the 4750 resistance band, the current rebound may be treated as corrective only. In that case, sellers could re-enter and push the market into the next bearish leg, with downside pressure building back toward the previous support zones. On the other hand, if buyers manage to break above the current Fibonacci resistance and sustain price above it, then the bearish Elliott interpretation would begin to weaken. That would force the market to reassess whether the correction is becoming more complex than expected. For now, my preferred view remains cautious. The structure still looks more like a wave 4 retracement than a confirmed bullish reversal. That means next week is likely to be less about chasing strength and more about watching whether the market starts rejecting from resistance with weaker follow-through. Cecilia’s view: Gold is recovering, but the recovery is now entering the zone where many corrections lose momentum. If price cannot build acceptance above resistance, the chart may be setting up for the next leg lower. The focus for next week is not how high gold has bounced — it is whether this bounce has enough strength to break the structure, or whether it becomes the final retracement before wave 5 begins.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Cecilia_Jane_Trader
2
XAUUSD: Gold correcting in bearish trendHello everyone, here is my view on the current XAUUSD setup. Market Analysis Gold is currently showing a short-term recovery, but the broader structure still suggests that this is only a corrective move within an existing bearish leg, not a confirmed reversal yet. On the chart, price is reacting back into the 4753–4760 sell zone, which is a key resistance area after the recent decline. This zone is important because it marks the upper boundary of the current recovery and may become the point where selling pressure returns. What stands out here is that the market is not breaking into a fresh bullish trend. Instead, it is moving sideways-to-higher inside a relatively tight range after the drop, which often reflects a pause or correction before the next directional move. In this case, the structure still leans bearish unless buyers can clearly break above the overhead resistance. Below the current price, the chart highlights a critical liquidity zone around 4580–4608. This is the main support area to watch if gold starts rolling over from resistance. A move back into this zone would fit the idea that the current rebound is only temporary and that the market may still be preparing for another leg lower. Even deeper, the 4554 level remains the next major downside reference if the liquidity zone fails to hold. So for now, the technical structure suggests that gold is still trading inside a correction, while the broader short-term pressure remains tilted to the downside. Key Price Areas to Watch Current resistance / sell zone: 4753–4760 Current price area: around 4754 Critical liquidity zone below: 4580–4608 Next downside support: 4554 My Scenario & Strategy My preferred scenario is to treat the current rise as a corrective rebound inside a bearish structure. As long as XAUUSD remains capped below the 4753–4760 resistance zone, I still favor the idea that this move may lose momentum and rotate lower again. If sellers respond from this area, the first downside objective would be the critical liquidity zone around 4580–4608. If bearish pressure continues building after that, gold could extend lower toward 4554, which becomes the next important support to watch. However, if price breaks cleanly above the current sell zone and starts holding above it, the correction would become stronger than expected, and the bearish continuation view would need to be reassessed. For now, gold still looks like it is correcting inside a broader short-term decline, so I prefer staying cautious on the upside until the market proves otherwise.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lilybelle_gl
XAUUSD: Bullish Trend ContinuesXAUUSD: Gold Holds Its Recovery Structure as Safe-Haven Demand Stays in Focus Hello everyone, here is my view on the current XAUUSD setup. Market Analysis Gold continues to trade with a constructive tone as the broader market backdrop remains fragile. Even though equities usually benefit from the so-called April effect, the current environment looks much less supportive than usual. Rising energy-driven inflation risks, fading expectations for rate cuts, and concerns over the quality of corporate earnings are all creating pressure on risk sentiment. At the same time, geopolitical tension in the Middle East is adding another layer of uncertainty, which keeps safe-haven flows relevant for gold. From a technical perspective, XAUUSD is still moving inside a rising channel, and that keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. The recent pullback did not break the broader trend. Instead, price found support again near the lower side of the structure and is now trying to recover back toward resistance. The key point on this chart is the 4681 area. This is the near-term breakout level that needs to be cleared for the bullish continuation to look stronger. If buyers manage to push price above this zone and hold it, the next upside path opens toward the 4692–4707 resistance area, which is also marked as a liquidity sell zone on the chart. Even if some selling pressure appears there first, the broader structure still suggests that gold may continue working higher as long as the rising support line remains valid. Above that, the bigger target remains near the monthly high zone around 4775–4800, which is the main upside objective shown on the chart. So for now, the technical picture still supports a recovery bias. Gold is not breaking down. It is consolidating under resistance while still respecting trend support, and that usually keeps buyers interested unless the structure is lost. Key Levels to Watch Current price zone: around 4678 Buy confirmation level: above 4681 Near-term resistance / liquidity zone: 4692–4707 Main upside objective: monthly high around 4775–4800 Trend support / invalidation area: below 4599 My Scenario & Strategy My preferred view remains bullish while gold continues to hold above the rising trendline. The cleanest setup would be a confirmed breakout above 4681, because that would show buyers are regaining control after the recent consolidation. If price holds above that level, XAUUSD may continue toward the 4692–4707 resistance area first. A stable reaction there would be important, because if gold absorbs that supply well, the upside move could extend further toward the monthly high zone near 4775–4800. However, if price slips back below the trendline and loses 4599, the bullish structure would weaken and the market could move into a deeper correction before any fresh recovery attempt develops. For now, gold still looks supported, the rising structure remains in place, and the market continues to favor the upside as long as trend support is respected. That’s the setup I’m watching for now. Thank you for reading, and always manage your risk carefully.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lilybelle_gl
1
XAUUSD at critical $5,000 level.Gold is trading at a critical inflection point as XAU/USD continues to fight around the $5,000 psychological level. This is not just a normal technical pause. It is a zone where macro tension, liquidity positioning, and market sentiment are all colliding at once. The broader backdrop remains mixed, and that is exactly why price action has become more aggressive. On one side, some traders are still holding onto hopes that any progress around the Strait of Hormuz could ease part of the current geopolitical stress. On the other, the market cannot ignore the risk that the United States could move against Iran’s strategic oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, a scenario that would quickly reprice risk across commodities and safe-haven flows. That uncertainty is keeping gold unstable, but it is also giving the $5,000 area much more importance than a standard round-number support. Technical Structure From a technical standpoint, gold is trading under pressure after failing to sustain recovery above the nearby resistance layers. The chart shows a market that is trying to stabilize but has not yet reclaimed enough structure to suggest real upside control. The current setup sends a clear message: Price is sitting directly above the $5,000 demand and liquidity area. The first upside resistance stands near 5,063. Above that, the next major sell zone comes in around 5,142. If the current floor breaks, the downside opens toward the deeper liquidity zone near 4,810. This leaves gold in a very narrow decision phase. Buyers are trying to defend a major psychological level, while sellers still control the higher structure unless price can recover above resistance. Key Price Zones Immediate Support / Psychological Level: $5,000 This is the main battlefield right now. If gold can continue holding above this area, the market may attempt a technical rebound from current lows. First Resistance: 5,063 This is the first recovery layer on the chart. Any bounce from current levels needs to reclaim this area first before a stronger upside scenario can develop. Major Resistance / Sell Zone: 5,142 This is the more important overhead cap. It aligns with the upper resistance band and remains the key level sellers need to protect. As long as price stays below this zone, upside moves should still be treated cautiously. Deeper Downside Liquidity: 4,810 If the $5,000 handle gives way decisively, this becomes the next major downside target. It is the deeper support liquidity area and the next place where stronger buying interest may appear. Market Scenarios Scenario 1 – Hold Above $5,000 and Recover Higher This is the constructive scenario for the short term. If buyers defend the current area properly, gold could rotate back towards 5,063, and if momentum improves, extend toward 5,142. That would suggest the market is using the current decline as a liquidity sweep rather than opening a full bearish extension immediately. For this scenario to gain credibility, price needs more than a weak bounce. It needs firm acceptance back above the first recovery zone. Scenario 2 – Failure at $5,063 or $5,142, Then Renewed Selling Even if gold rebounds from current levels, the structure is not bullish yet by default. If price rallies into 5,063 or 5,142 and gets rejected again, the market may simply be building a lower high before another downside leg. That would keep the short-term structure defensive and confirm that sellers are still comfortable fading recoveries. Scenario 3 – Break Below $5,000 and Extend Toward $4,810 This is the heavier bearish scenario. If the market loses the $5,000 level with clear downside acceptance, gold may move quickly into the 4,810 liquidity zone. That would confirm that the current support has failed and that the recent weakness is broadening into a deeper corrective phase. In that case, the market would no longer be reacting inside a holding pattern. It would be transitioning into a fresh downside expansion. Market Insight Gold is now trading in the kind of environment where conviction must be earned, not assumed. The macro backdrop remains unstable, headlines can shift sentiment quickly, and technically the market is sitting exactly on a major psychological support. That combination usually creates noisy price action, false starts, and sharp reactions on both sides. From my perspective, $5,000 is the line that matters most. Hold above it, and gold still has room to stage a recovery into 5,063 and possibly 5,142. Lose it, and the chart opens the door to a deeper move toward 4,810. This is not the type of market to trade with early bias and weak confirmation. This is the type of market where structure must be respected, resistance must be earned back, and support must prove it can actually hold. For now, the battlefield is clear: gold is fighting for stability at $5,000, and the next real move will come from whichever side wins control of that level first.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
5
Gold – Pressure Under Key ResistanceGold started the week under selling pressure and briefly moved down toward the 5000 psychological area before finding support. The main driver is simple: stronger USD + rising inflation concerns from oil are limiting gold’s upside recovery. That macro pressure is enough to keep gold defensive for now. Technical Structure From a technical perspective, gold is trading around 5124 after failing to hold the previous rebound. The structure is showing clear weakness: Price remains capped below a major descending trendline. The 5205 resistance area is still controlling the upside. Recent recovery attempts have lacked continuation. The market is holding above 4914, but support is being tested under pressure. At this stage, gold is moving between overhead resistance and liquidity support below, which usually leads to a directional move once one side gives way. As long as price stays below the trendline and below 5205, the structure remains vulnerable. Key Price Zones Resistance Zone 5205 This is the most important short-term resistance. It aligns with: recent failed recovery highs internal structure resistance the area where sellers regained control If price cannot reclaim this level, bullish momentum remains limited. Major Sell Zone 5350 This is the higher resistance area where strong liquidity and trendline pressure meet. If gold rallies strongly, this becomes the next major sell zone. Support Zone 4914 This is the first major downside liquidity zone and the nearest demand area. A reaction here is possible, but if this level breaks, downside pressure can expand quickly. Deeper Swing Support 4641 If bearish continuation accelerates, this becomes the next major structural downside target. Market Scenarios Scenario 1 – Sell Rejection Below 5205 This is the primary scenario for now. If price continues trading below 5205, the market may remain under bearish pressure. What I’m watching here: Any recovery into 5180–5205 Weak candles or rejection from resistance Failure to build acceptance above 5205 If that happens, the market may rotate back down toward 4996–4914. If sellers stay in control after that move, the downside can extend further into 4641. This scenario remains valid as long as gold cannot reclaim resistance with conviction. Scenario 2 – Deeper Rally Into 5350 Then Rejection If buyers manage to push through 5205, that does not automatically mean the structure turns bullish. It may simply open room for a larger corrective rebound. In that case: Price may expand toward 5280–5350 The 5350 zone becomes the key area to watch for renewed selling This region combines strong liquidity with descending trendline resistance If price reaches that zone and momentum weakens again, it could offer a stronger sell setup than the lower resistance. For me, this is still a reaction zone unless gold can break above it and hold. Scenario 3 – Support Holds and Market Rebuilds If gold drops into 4914 and buyers defend it cleanly, the market may try to rebuild structure from there. What would support this view: strong bullish reaction from 4914 failure to break lower despite repeated pressure higher low formation after the bounce If this happens, price may rotate back toward 5205 first, and only then the market will decide whether that rebound is real or just temporary. So even in a bounce scenario, 5205 remains the key confirmation level. Market Insight Gold is still trading inside a pressured structure. The market is not weak enough yet to collapse without reaction, but it is also not strong enough yet to reclaim control above resistance. That is why this chart is all about 5205 above and 4914 below. Between those two levels, price is building the next move. Outside those two levels, direction becomes clearer. Follow for structured XAUUSD analysis, detailed trade scenarios, and clearer gold market direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
3
XAUUSD – H1 Technical AnalysisXAUUSD – H1 Technical Analysis | Lana ✨ Gold remains in a strong bullish structure, and the current price action is best understood as a healthy pullback within an uptrend, not a reversal. 📈 Market Structure & Trendline Price continues to respect the ascending trendline, confirming higher highs and higher lows. The impulsive leg at the start of the week created a clear liquidity imbalance, which is now acting as a key demand zone. As long as price holds above this structure, the bullish bias stays intact. 🔢 Fibonacci Confluence Using Fibonacci on the latest impulsive move: 0.618 – 0.5 retracement zone aligns perfectly with the current consolidation. This confluence strengthens the idea that the market is rebalancing before continuation, rather than distributing. 🟢 Key Buy Zones (Preferred) 4510 – 4520 Liquidity imbalance + trendline support → Ideal zone to wait for bullish confirmation This zone represents value, where smart money typically looks to re-enter the trend. 🔴 Resistance & Reaction Zone 4635 – 4637 (Fibonacci extension 2.618) → Strong resistance and profit-taking area → Possible short-term sell reaction, not a confirmed reversal Avoid chasing buys near this zone without a clear breakout and acceptance. 🧠 Trading Scenario Base case: Price pulls back into the buy zone (4510–4520), reacts, and continues higher following the trendline. Alternative: Deeper pullback but structure remains bullish as long as trendline holds. Invalidation: A clean break and acceptance below the trendline would signal a deeper correction. ✨ Lana’s Notes Trend is your friend — but entries matter more than bias. Buy value, sell reactions. Let Fibonacci, structure, and trendline do the heavy lifting. No FOMO, no chasing. Trade the structure. Respect the trend. React, don’t predict. 💛
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
XAUUSD (H4) – Monday StrategyGeopolitical shock risk, gold may spike | Trade liquidity and reaction zones only Quick summary News around Trump’s claim that Maduro has been detained, plus Venezuela’s response (they don’t know his and his wife’s whereabouts and are demanding proof of life), raises geopolitical uncertainty sharply. For gold, that’s a classic catalyst for a gap/spike at Monday open. So my rule for Monday: no FOMO, only trade liquidity zones and confirmed reactions on the chart. 1) Macro context: Why gold can surge on Monday Rising geopolitical tension often drives flows into safe-haven assets like gold. When facts are unclear and tensions escalate, the market can open with: ✅ sharp spikes, ✅ liquidity sweeps, ✅ wider spreads. ➡️ Best approach: wait for price to hit levels, then trade the reaction — not the headline. 2) Technical view (H4 – based on your chart) Gold is currently moving inside a larger structure after a heavy move, and your chart highlights the key zones clearly: Key zones Sell test support 4450 (pullback area where price may get sold) Liquidity 4330 (major liquidity magnet) OB 4309 (order block / short-term reaction zone) Support 4277 (intermediate support) Buy zone 4203–4206 (deep support / swing buy area) 3) Monday trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level) Scenario A (priority): Spike up → SELL around 4450 ✅ If gold pumps on the headline at the open: Sell around 4450 (sell-test zone) SL: above the most recent swing high (refine on lower TF) TP1: 4330 TP2: 4309 TP3: 4277 Logic: Headline-driven opens often spike to sweep buy-side liquidity first, then rotate back into value/liquidity. Scenario B: Sweep down → BUY at liquidity zones ✅ If price gets pulled down first: Buy around 4330 (Liquidity) Buy confirmation at 4309 (OB) SL (guide): below 4300 TP: 4380 → 4450 (scale out) Logic: 4330 is a major liquidity magnet and often produces a sharp reaction bounce. Scenario C (worst-case dump): BUY the deep support 4203–4206 ✅ If volatility is extreme and price flushes: Buy: 4203 – 4206 SL: 4195 TP: 4277 → 4330 Logic: This is a deep swing-buy area if the market does a hard liquidity reset. 4) Key notes for a headline-driven Monday open Avoid trading the first 5–10 minutes if spreads widen. Only enter once price hits the level and shows a clear reaction (rejection / engulf / MSS on M15). Reduce size — geopolitical opens can whip hard. Do you think Monday’s move sweeps up into 4450 first, or drops straight into 4330 liquidity?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LA_Trader_Fx
1
XAUUSD (H4) – Tuesday ForecastBroke the old ATH, trend continuation | Buy the pullback at 4442, sell premium at 4559 Strategy summary Gold has broken the previous all-time high (ATH) and the bullish structure remains intact. Today my priority is still buying with the trend, but only on a clean pullback — no chasing. The secondary plan is a reaction sell at a premium Fibonacci zone if price extends too aggressively. 1) Technical view (based on your chart) The breakout above the old ATH is a strong bullish signal: we have a clear higher high and price is building a new base. The chart highlights a Buy VL / value area just below current price — a logical pullback zone to reload longs. Above, there’s a 1.618 Fibonacci premium sell zone, where profit-taking often shows up. Key point: The trend is bullish, but the higher we go, the more likely we see sharp wicks and quick pullbacks. Stay disciplined and trade the levels. 2) Trade plan for today (clear entry, SL, target) Scenario A (priority): BUY the Asia pullback ✅ Buy: 4442 SL: 4435 Target: 4747 (your projected target) Logic: This is a clean pullback into the session value area. If price holds here, continuation becomes the higher-probability path. Scenario B: SELL the premium Fibonacci reaction ✅ Sell: 4559 SL: 4568 TP: scale out on the reaction (short-term profit-taking), or manage based on momentum after rejection Logic: 4559 is a premium Fibonacci zone. If price spikes into it, a rejection move is very common — but only sell with reaction, not by chasing. 3) Macro context (why gold stays supported) XAU/USD is building on yesterday’s strong rally (+2%) and is printing fresh record highs for a second day. Price is pushing toward the 4,500 psychological level during Asia, supported by multiple safe-haven drivers. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent add uncertainty around the long-term reliability of Fed policy — and uncertainty typically supports gold. 4) Risk management (Liam rule) Don’t chase after breakout. Only buy at 4442 as planned. Risk per trade: max 1–2%. If stopped out, wait for the next structure — no revenge trading. What’s your bias today: buying the 4442 pullback, or waiting for a 4559 reaction sell?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx