Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan for 26th May 2025
📊 Elliott Wave Outlook – XAUUSD – H1 Chart
On the H1 timeframe, after drawing the Elliott Wave channel, we can see that price is currently in wave iii (orange). Within this wave, wave 5 (green) is in progress.
Once wave 5 (green) completes, we anticipate a downward correction in the form of wave iv (orange), before price resumes the overall uptrend to complete wave v (orange).
🔍 Breakdown of Wave 5 (Green): Two Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Wave 5 (Green) is NOT yet complete
Currently, price seems to be forming a minor wave 4 within wave 5 in a Flat structure. If this plays out, wave 5 could extend to one of the following target zones:
🎯 Target 1: 3373
🎯 Target 2: 3397
Scenario 2 – Wave 5 (Green) is ALREADY complete
This implies wave iii (orange) has ended, and the market is now entering wave iv (orange). This correction could unfold as a zigzag, flat, or triangle pattern, with the following potential retracement zones:
🎯 Target 1: 3317
🎯 Target 2: 3290
📉 Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: Momentum is showing signs of bearish reversal. Wait for today’s daily candle close to confirm the dominant downtrend for the week.
H4 timeframe: Momentum has already turned bearish ⇒ favor short setups or range-bound conditions during the day.
H1 timeframe: Momentum is currently rising ⇒ expect a short-term bounce before a potential drop. Watch for signs of bearish reversal on H1 before entering SELLs.
📌 Trading Plan
Potential SELL Zone
✅ Entry: 3373 – 3376
❌ Stop Loss: 3383
🎯 Take Profit 1: 3343
🎯 Take Profit 2: 3317
Note: Only SELL if H1 momentum flips bearish. If price breaks above 3376, look to SELL at 3397.
Potential BUY Zone
✅ Entry: 3316 – 3313
❌ Stop Loss: 3306
🎯 Take Profit 1: 3343
🎯 Take Profit 2: 3373
Note: Only BUY if H1 momentum turns bullish. If this zone fails, consider buying at 3290.
