the fall started from 15% in Oct' 1981 until 0.533% in Jul 2020 has formed a parallel channel.
Though the rise has been sharp and with very little consolidation.
However it may start consolidating from 6-8%
retracement from that may not be much, however time correction is needed as bond yield has increase too much in little time.
Bond Yields in India are anchored at 7% whereas in US the curve is inverted and interest rates are going to be 'higher for longer'.
Inspite of this Rupee is not getting hammerred, due to huge forex reserves and even the Indian stock market is fairly resilient, thanks to deluge of local money.
So going forward, a long term investor is likely to benefit if he/ she...
Yield curve inversion between 2Y ans 10 Y has been in existence for more than 14 months. One of the longest streak as per available data. Indicating sticky inflation scenario. Treasury has attracted one of the biggest inflow in last couply of years. Smart money is moving into T Bills for safe heaven purpose and to lockin the high yield.
US 30 Y bond yield should break 5% mark in next couple of months. Yields are rising across the board. Yield curve inversion has been in existence for more than 6 months. Fixed mortgage has almost touched 8%. 1 more rate hike looks feasible in next Fed meeting.
2024 march April started a huge recession in equity market according to bond market when 10 year bond yields and 2 year bond yields curve at base line o it men's recession this economy indicator pridict right pridition back 40 year . Look at the example the greatest tech burst crash in 2000 and subprime mortgage crash 2008 and pendmic crash 2020 . This economy...
A truncated 5th wave maybe developing in the US 10-year bond yields as the pattern that has developed is an expanding triangle near a double top. Positioning shows the largest short position in US bonds net across categories. The setup is for a short covering rally in bond markets to be triggered by some event along with inflation data. This is not a time to be...
We will be seeing how interest rates have been behaving, has it finally peaked out or is there some steam left?
If you look at India's 10 year Govt. Bond yield it was in a major uptrend untill recently where it has been showing HS pattern and technically it is expected to go down from 6.98% to 6.4%.
But on the other hand if you see US 10 year Govt. bond...
Bond yield inversion occurs when the yield on long-term government bonds falls below that of short-term bonds. This has happened multiple times in history, including in 2006-2007 prior to the financial crisis of 2008, and in the late 1990s prior to the dot-com crash of 2000. Bond yield inversion is often seen as a potential signal of an economic slowdown or...
Slope is indicating more upside for US10Y in coming 6-9 months. Probability of crossing 4.5 is high but it can also attempt for 5 by July 2024. Minor pullback to 3.75 can happen.
Disc: It's not an investment advise to buy or sell.
US 10tr bond yield bounced from support at 3.24% & also from 200 EMA.
Hope this is a small bounce, if it goes to 4% level then it will be bad for equity markets.
US fed rare hike cycle is near about to end in next 6-9 months or it has already reached to the peak. Reversal in inversion from above 0% level had given signals of stoppages of rate hike cycle in last 3 incidents. 1-2 more hike may come but that's end of upmove in interest rate. Time to lock 10 year bond yield.
Disc : It's not an investment advise to buy or sell
