number1te

Alpha-Sutte Model

The Alpha-Sutte model is an ongoing project run by Ansari Saleh Ahmar, a lecturer and researcher at Universitas Negeri Makassar in Indonesia, that attempts to make forecasts for time series like how Arima and Holt-Winters models do. Currently Ahmar and his team have conducted research and published papers comparing the efficacy of the Alpha-Sutte and other models, such as Arima and Holt-Winters, on topics ranging from forecasting Turkey's CPI data, Bitcoin prices, Apple's stock prices, primary energy supply of Indonesia, to infant mortality rates in China.

The Alpha-Sutte model in comparison to the other two models listed above shows promise in providing a more accurate forecast, and the project has been able to receive some of its funding from organizations such as the US Agency for International Development, which is a part of the US Federal Government, so maybe the project has some actual merit.


How it works:

In this model there are four values presented at the top of the window.

1) The first value in blue is the value of the Alpha-Sutte model whose purpose is to forecast the price of the current bar.

2) The second value in yellow is an adaptive version of the Alpha-Sutte model that I made. The purpose of the adaptive Alpha-Sutte model is to expand upon the Alpha-Sutte by allowing new information to be introduced, causing the value to change during the current period, hence the adaptiveness of it.

3) The third value in aqua is the moving average of the low% Sutte line which is a predictive line that is based off of the close and low of the current and previous periods.

4) The fourth value in red is the moving average of the high% Sutte line which is a predictive line that is based off of the close and high of the current and previous periods.

Trend signals:

If low% Sutte (aqua value/line) is greater than high% Sutte (red value/line) then this is a buy signal.

If high% Sutte (red value/line) is greater than low% Sutte (aqua value/line) then this is a sell signal.

Caveat:

Even though this model's purpose is to forecast the future, will it be able to predict periods of large movements? No, of course not, but it will adjust quickly to try to make more accurate forecasts for the next period. This was also a reason why I made an adaptive version of this model to try to reduce some of the discrepancies between the Alpha Sutte and price when there is a large unexpected move.


*WARNING before using this I would highly recommend that you look up "Sutte Indicator" online and read some of the papers about this model before you use this , even though this model has shown merit when compared to Arima and Holt-Winter models this is still an ongoing project.*

Hopefully this project will actually come to something in the near future as the calculation for this time series predictive model is much easier to calculate and program in pine editor than something like an Arima model.

*Also, if you know how to use R language there is a package for the "Alpha-Sutte model".*
Release Notes: When looking at the accuracy of the Alpha-Sutte (value in Blue) and the adaptive Sutte (value in yellow), I've noticed that in an uptrend the adaptive Sutte seems to be more accurate and in a downward trend the Alpha-Sutte is more accurate. So if you use this model I would recommend that when the signals listed above show a buying environment look at the adaptive Sutte for your forecasts, and when there is a selling environment use the Alpha-Sutte.



*Given that this project is ongoing more updates will come as more papers concerning the project are written, and as I experiment with this model more. If you are interested in this project please tweak it and try to improve the indicator.*
Release Notes: Now included is custom timeframes. In order to use custom timeframes you have to pay for a pro account, so this is a way around this. In order to use this just hide the original price candles, and this will replace them with the alpha sutte printing in relation to the custom candles. If you want to use the Alpha-Sutte on any timeframe, custom or standard, this is the way to do it.

*BTW if you don't want to use the alpha-sutte, but do want to take advantage of custom timeframes, then add this indicator to your chart and edit the code. For example, if you want to use an RSI instead of the Alpha-Sutte on custom timeframes, then just delete the Alpha-Sutte part of the code and copy the RSI code in its place.*


*BTW this is a note for people interested in using the Alpha-Sutte Model, from what I've seen the predictive model, which as seen in the picture is the orange number at the top, is much more accurate on timeframes greater than 30min.*

I hope this will be helpful.
Release Notes: Disregard last release notes.
Removed Custom Timeframes because they were faulty, will add it back once I find a way to fix it.
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Looks interesting. Thanks for sharing!
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