Gold 🪙Gold could climb to 2687 within or on ( 16th Sep 2024 )
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
GOLD.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
this is the xauusd gold level all target will hit in a monthsthis is the xauusd gold level all target will hit in a months #gold #xauusd
XAUUSD - Financial Insights 26/09/2024Summary: Things are getting worse, slowly but worse, XAUUSD will reach 3K at the end of this year
1.
Title: Xi’s Economic Adrenaline Shot Is Only Buying China a Little Time
Source: Bloomberg
Problem: China's economy faces a deflationary slump due to a property market crash, weak consumer demand, and trade tensions.
Solution: The central bank launched aggressive easing measures, including interest rate cuts, more liquidity, and housing incentives.
Result: Markets surged, but economists warn these actions provide only temporary relief without deeper reforms.
Prediction: Further fiscal policies and structural reforms are needed to avoid long-term stagnation and drive sustainable growth.
2. Title: China Cuts One-Year Policy Rate by Most Ever in Stimulus Drive
Source: Bloomberg
Problem: The Chinese economy faces potential deflationary pressures, prompting the need for significant monetary stimulus.
Solution: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the medium-term lending facility rate by 30 basis points to 2%, initiating a broader stimulus package to boost economic confidence.
Result: The yuan strengthened, and Chinese stocks gained, with expectations for further monetary easing, including future rate cuts on reverse repurchase notes.
Prediction: Analysts anticipate additional rate reductions and liquidity measures to support the economy, aligning funding costs more closely with market rates in the coming months.
3.
Title: OECD Upgrades UK Growth by Most in G-7, Warns on Inflation
Source: Bloomberg
Problem: UK faces high inflation, with the BOE struggling to meet its 2% target.
Solution: The government plans to increase investment, focusing on infrastructure and the green transition.
Result: UK growth forecast upgraded to 1.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, but inflation remains high.
Prediction: BOE may delay interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation and wage pressures.
4.
Title: Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable Growth
Source: Bloomberg
Problem: The global economy faces risks from geopolitical tensions, soft labor markets, and potential financial market upheaval as inflation eases.
Solution: Central banks can cautiously cut interest rates while monitoring data closely, avoiding rapid reductions.
Result: OECD projects global growth to stabilize at 3.2% for 2024, with moderating inflation expected in G20 nations by the end of 2025.
Prediction: While growth forecasts for the US and euro area remain steady, the OECD warns of significant risks that could impact the global economic outlook.
5.
Title: Danish Central Bank Slashes Inflation Forecasts as Wages Cool
Source: Bloomberg
Problem: The Danish labor market pressure has eased, but there are concerns about potential inflationary risks from the government's proposed 2025 budget.
Solution: The central bank has reduced its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025, anticipating slower wage growth due to a less tight labor market.
Result: Inflation is now forecasted at 1.3% for 2024 (down from 2.2%) and 2.1% for 2025 (down from 2.6%), indicating a more stable economic environment.
Prediction: The central bank warns against loosening fiscal policy too soon, as it could destabilize the current balance in the labor market.
6.
Title: BOE’s Greene Calls for ‘Cautious’ Approach to Rate Cuts
Source: Bloomberg
Problem: Strong wage growth and resilient economic activity pose risks, prompting concerns about inflation remaining sticky in the UK.
Solution: BOE policymaker Megan Greene advocates for a cautious and gradual approach to interest rate cuts, ensuring that inflationary pressures have subsided before making significant changes.
Result: The market reflects skepticism about immediate rate cuts, with current pricing suggesting a cut in November but a 60% chance of a follow-up in December.
Prediction: Greene emphasizes the need for ongoing observation of wage trends and consumer spending to gauge future monetary policy adjustments.
7.
Title: Fed's Bumper Rate Cut Revives 'Reflation Specter' in US Bond Market
Source: Reuters
Problem: The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts raise concerns about re-igniting inflation in the U.S. economy.
Solution: The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut aims to recalibrate its approach, focusing on maintaining a strong labor market while managing inflation.
Result: U.S. bond yields have risen as investors reassess inflation expectations, reflecting uncertainty over future economic conditions.
Prediction: A gradual return to higher inflation could impact bond markets, and the central bank may need to adjust its strategy if inflation does not remain subdued.
8.
Title: Investing.com Poll: Where do you see gold prices by the end of 2024?
Source: Investing.com
Problem: Gold prices have recently surged, driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cut and investor sentiment.
Solution: Analysts expect ongoing rate reductions, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset.
Result: Gold prices have rallied over 5% this month, defying historical trends for September.
Prediction: While traders anticipate potential cooling in gold returns, any downside is likely to be limited, suggesting a strong long-term outlook for the metal.
9.
Title: With Fed Easing Underway, What's Next for Markets? UBS Weighs In
Source: Investing.com
Problem: The recent rate cut by the Fed raises questions about future economic conditions and market stability.
Solution: UBS believes the rate cut signals a willingness to support the economy, but emphasizes the need for clear labor market data to ensure a soft landing.
Result: Markets have reacted positively to the rate cut, but uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate impact on growth and inflation.
Prediction: A "Roaring '20s" scenario is considered an upside risk, but market volatility could re-emerge as investors seek clarity on the economy's trajectory.
10.
Will Fed policy trigger a US recession?
Claudia Sahm:
Does not believe the US is currently in a recession, despite her namesake "Sahm rule" being triggered.
Is concerned about the direction of economic indicators, with payroll gains slowing and unemployment rising.
Puts higher odds of recession now than earlier in the cycle, but doesn't provide a specific percentage.
Believes the Fed is at risk of making an "unforced policy error" if they don't cut rates soon enough, potentially leading to an unnecessary recession.
Bill Dudley:
Puts 50-60% odds of a recession in the next 12 months.
Believes the Fed is "a bit behind the curve" in reducing interest rates given increased economic risks.
Thinks a soft landing is possible but historically difficult for the Fed to achieve.
Expects any potential recession to be mild due to strong household and business balance sheets.
Rob Kaplan:
Seems less concerned about recession risk than Dudley.
Believes the job market is softening as intended, but not "falling out of bed."
Thinks the Fed may be tactically behind by "a meeting or two" but not strategically behind.
Expects the Fed to likely cut rates in September, November, and December, despite potentially hawkish rhetoric.
11.
Title: Powell Emerges Stronger After Leading Fed to Big Rate Cut
Source: Bloomberg
Problem: Federal Reserve officials were divided on how aggressively to cut interest rates, amidst weak jobs data and inflation pressures easing.
Solution: Chair Jerome Powell advocated for a significant 50 basis point rate cut to safeguard against potential risks to the labor market.
Result: The majority of Fed officials supported the larger cut, reflecting Powell's strengthened leadership and consensus around his approach to manage economic risks.
Prediction: If labor market data continues to disappoint, another substantial rate cut could occur in the future, as Powell aims to ensure a soft landing for the economy.
12.
Title: Gold price consolidates below all-time peak, awaits Fed Chair Powell’s speech
Source: Investing.com
Problem: Gold prices are confined below their all-time peak due to rising US yields and a strong USD, creating uncertainty in the market.
Solution: Traders are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other influential FOMC members, which may influence expectations for another 50 bps rate cut in November.
Result: Current gold prices are stable around $2,650, supported by dovish Fed expectations and geopolitical tensions, despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions.
Prediction: Upcoming economic data and Powell’s speech will be critical in determining gold's direction, with potential fluctuations as traders evaluate the likelihood of further rate cuts and their impacts on market sentiment.
TP HIT ON GOLDAs I discussed in my last analysis, I have predicted that gold will move 200 pips and reach my TP
GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD GOLD SHOWING A GOOD UP MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD
DUE TO THESE REASON
A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market
which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable
B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break
C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region
all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward
please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules
that will help you to to become a bettertrader
thank you
XAU/USD: Historic Breakout or Awaiting a Pullback?Gold prices continue to shatter records, reaching an all-time high of $2,664, fueled by declining consumer confidence in the US, weakening Treasury yields, and a softer US dollar.
Two strong support levels at $2,629.123 and $2,613.812, protected by the EMA 34 and EMA 89, act as shields for gold’s bullish momentum.
However, the biggest hurdle remains the resistance at $2,685.993 – the key level that will determine whether gold can continue its upward climb to new heights.
If the price breaks through this resistance, the potential for further gains looks promising.
Meanwhile, economic news from the US and statements from the FED could change the game at any moment.
Traders, be ready – opportunities like this don’t come twice. Get set for a powerful breakout!
The Growing Attraction in a Volatile WorldThe gold price chart shows a clear upward trend since the beginning of September, with the EMA 34 and EMA 89 both signaling a strong upward momentum. The weakening of the USD, along with global economic stimulus measures and political tensions, have pushed gold prices higher.
Especially in the context of major central banks around the world - from the US to Europe, and the People's Bank of China - all spreading monetary support packages like spring rain, further fueling the desire to invest in gold. Gold remains a safe haven and attractive asset in the current unstable context. Investors need to closely monitor market developments to seize opportunities and adjust strategies promptly.
Gold: The Fever Shows No Signs of Cooling DownHello everyone, it's Alisa again. Will gold go up or down today? Let’s analyze it together with Alisa!
Despite facing strong profit-taking pressure, gold prices have remained at an all-time high. This suggests that investors are still optimistic about the possibility of further rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the near future, especially after the latest inflation data was released.
Looking at the technical chart, the trend is still upward, and the 34 and 89 EMAs are running steadily with no signs of reversal. With support at 2,626, this precious metal continues to rise, targeting the 2,688 mark.
Alisa thinks this precious metal will soon break its record high and aim for 2,700. What do you think about gold’s movement today?
Gold is purely on bullish modewith the current news event on rise with another rate cut upto 100 basis points, we can clearly see that gold is no option for investors to hedge their risks.
A good buy zone can be seen from 2625 levels to accumulate and hold for rise in coming new trading sessions.
Buy can be done only if the retracement below 200 ema is clearly seen on charts . We should strongly reject buy side if the gold falls down sharply with large size candles with each candle size beyond 3 $ each. which will signal us temporary cooling down and we should then wait for gold to test 2600 $ levels.
Gold 2693,2700 Target still possible if 2645 break then fall Disclaimer -
This information is only for educational purposes, this is not for any buy or sell recommendations .
On Our Harmonic pattern indicator
based trade setup take trade as explained below :-
ENTRY -
When price breaks 30% retracement Which is D points then take Entry on Buy or Sell Trade
SL -
SL is (-3%) Which is mentioned in Chart . our SL is just above or below of Recent high or Low .
TARGET -
Target 1- (T1 : 61.8 %)
Target 2- (T2 : 88.6 %)
Target 3- (T3 : 127.2 %)
Target 4- (T4 : 161.8 %)
Please note:-
It's working on news based and volitile market very well so exit if SL hit
BUY XAUUSDIn my opinion, I am looking to buy , which is a strong DEMAND ZONE. It is not advisable to enter without confirmation from a lower TF.
Gold awaits reaction to 2646 for further direction. Gold maintains stability above 2650 and stays afloat above critical support 2646, thus we maintain our bullish bias with required confirmation of break above 2670 for advance towards next leg higher 2690 followed by 2710
Gold Price Analysis September 25Fundamental Analysis
Gold rose to a fresh record high of $2,670 an ounce on Wednesday after a surprise drop in U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday raised expectations of more aggressive policy easing and deeper interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Lower interest rates are good for gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, making it more attractive to investors.
The People's Bank of China's biggest stimulus move since the Covid pandemic announced on Tuesday, which included steep cuts in borrowing costs as part of a package of measures to revive the slumping economy, also supported gold prices.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East after Israel resumed bombing Hezbollah targets in Lebanon further boosted safe-haven flows into the yellow metal.
Technical Analysis
Gold is sideways in a narrow range and waiting for clear buying and selling forces at the support level of 2650 to see how the price reacts when the US session enters. If it cannot break through 2650, a new ATH can be established today. Pay attention to the resistance zones at the top of 2670-2680 and see the price reaction in this zone to SELL. Important support is at the 2640 zone
Trading signals
BUY GOLD zone 2650 SL 2645
BUY GOLD zone 2640 SL 2635
SELL GOLD zone 2670 SL 2675
SELL GOLD zone 2680 SL 2685
xausud trade idea 25/09/2024a possible nice from here 2655 or may be from 2661 to 2662
targeting pullback up to 2640s and 2620s
trade asccording to your Risk to Reward !
note : no more than 1% risk per trade
Gold - 25/09/2024All timeframes are strong uptrend.
As of now no clear view to up or down.
It may give sideways today.
Wait and watch on match what it is giving.
Based on that we can take trade.
If i got clear view , i would update here.
XAUUSD 9/25/2024 gold price continues to increase?
Looking at H1 we are witnessing an extended wave 5 with the wave 5 target I measured at the current price zone of 2665 this zone has been reached and the second price zone at the price zone of 2696 - 2699.
After the end of wave 5 we will have another ABC adjustment so these target price zones will be the price zones we choose as SELL down targets
- This adjustment will be very large and long to facilitate intraday trading I will choose target zones with a lot of demand so we can catch the recovery waves in this adjustment.
- We have 2 target price zones with high demand concentration, which are the 2565 - 2562 zone and the 2594 - 2591 zone. These are the 2 target zones we choose to BUY up.
Trading plan
SELL ZONE: 2696 - 2699
SL: 2706
TP1: 2682
TP2: 2665
TP3: 2655
BUY ZONE: 2565 - 2562
SL: 2555
TP1: 2641
Tp2: 2655
TP3: 2670
BUY ZONE: 2594 - 2591
SL: 2584
TP1: 2614
TP2: 2625
TP3: 2641
Gold prices are skyrocketing: will they break a new peak?Gold prices are skyrocketing; will they hit the $2,700/ounce mark?
Hello everyone, Alisa here! How are gold prices doing this Wednesday? Let’s explore together!
Today, global gold prices continue to soar, reaching a new peak of $2,662/ounce. The continuous rise of this precious metal is driven by expectations that central banks will continue cutting interest rates, along with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Looking at the chart, the price remains in an upward channel. With support at $2,555 and the EMA 34 and 89 lines holding steady, this further strengthens the bullish trend for gold.
I believe gold could surpass $2,700/ounce as early as the end of this week, if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate and more news about interest rate cuts emerges. Do you agree with me?
Catching the Uptrend Amid Expectations of Interest Rate CutsIn the context of the global economy witnessing major adjustments from central banks, gold prices continued to experience a spectacular week of price increases, reaching a new record high. The main reasons were the weak dollar and the continuous decline in US Treasury bond yields, combined with the tense geopolitical situation between Israel and Hezbollah.
At the end of the trading session on September 23 at Kitco, gold recorded a price of 2,625.00 USD/ounce, slightly up 3.60 USD. The market is waiting for new signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this week, especially the upcoming speech of Chairman Jerome Powell, along with the announcement of PCE price index data, an inflation measure that the Fed is particularly interested in.
Technical analysis from the current chart shows that gold is trading right at a key resistance level, with a strong upside momentum supported by the 34 EMA and 89 EMA, which are acting as key support levels. Given the current economic and geopolitical factors, gold could continue its upward momentum if the upcoming monetary policy meetings of the Fed and other central banks yield further monetary easing decisions. Further rate cuts could further strengthen the buying interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.
If gold breaks the current resistance level, the next target could be around $2,700/oz. In case the price falls below the supporting EMAs, one needs to keep a close eye on the support level at $2,560/oz, which could provide an ideal entry point for long positions.
XAU/USD: Breakout or Upcoming Correction?XAU/USD is climbing strongly, supported by two solid "fortresses" of EMA 34 and EMA 89, as buyers proceed cautiously after reaching a new peak amid mild overbought conditions.
The biggest challenge now is the resistance at $2632 – if breached, the bullish momentum could accelerate further, unlocking the potential to reach new highs.
The “winds” from upcoming economic data from the FED and key news from the US and Europe will be the “key” to determining the next direction.
Traders should be ready to seize opportunities: buy on the breakout or consider selling if the price pulls back for a correction!
Gold Support and Resistance LevelsGold Market Analysis
Key Support Level: 2480
Current Bias: Bullish
Change in Bias: The market remains bullish while the price is above the 2480 level. If the price breaks and sustains below this support, the bias would shift to bearish.
Immediate Resistance Level: 2530
Current Price Action: Monitor the price behavior around this level. If gold approaches 2530, watch for potential resistance. A breakout above this resistance could suggest further upside potential.
Upside Targets:
2580
2600
Immediate Support Level: 2480
Observation: If gold breaks above 2530, the next resistance levels to watch are 2580 and 2600. These targets are based on the continuation of the bullish trend if the price maintains momentum.
Downside Targets:
2450
2430
Observation: If the price falls below the key support level of 2480 and sustains below it, the bearish outlook would suggest targets at 2450 and 2430. These levels represent potential areas of further support.
Volatility Considerations:
Sustained Moves: Pay attention to price action and volume around these key levels. A strong, sustained move below 2480, combined with increased volatility, would reinforce the bearish outlook and target the lower levels mentioned.
Summary:
Bullish Scenario: While above 2480, gold is in a bullish phase with potential upside targets of 2580 and 2600.
Bearish Scenario: A break below 2480 would shift the view to bearish, with targets at 2450 and 2430.
Keep an eye on price behavior around these key levels to refine your strategy and make informed trading decisions.
Strong Demand Zone Create for GoldPrice has broken previous higher highs and almost taken down all the sellers which were hoping to stop the gold on 2650 limits.
Gold is still posing a strong buy zone and there is no scope of downward momentum on the charts.
BTC & Gold Price Action Analysis | Key Levels & Trading StrategiDiscover the latest price action analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold in today's market. In this video, we break down key levels, chart patterns, and potential trading opportunities for both assets. Whether you're a Forex trader, crypto enthusiast, or looking to diversify your portfolio, our expert insights will help you navigate the markets. Don't miss out on crucial support and resistance levels, trend reversals, and strategies to trade BTC and Gold effectively.
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