Over the past decade the interest rate differential between US and India has been constantly going down. This has largely been due to stronger fiscal position of India and also gradual weakening of US Public Finances.
This has led to the Rupee becoming more stable against the Greenback, thereby reducing the rate of inflation in India.
Further, this has resulted...
All factors seem to be falling in place for Indian Economy. And that will likely translate into huge gains for Indian currency, bonds and equities. This update speaks about the signals visible at the beginning of 2024.
if you are Looking safe investments then Look for Investing in Indian Gov Bonds , its my personal Opinion its available at discounted rate Now
Good luck
Rupee stayed almost flat against the $ in 2023, depreciating 2% whereas other EM currencies depreciated more than 4%.
Equities soared in 2023 and if things go as they are appearing, then 2024 promises to be even better. There is lot of hop and optimism in the air already about Indian economy and that will most likely translate into higher returns for Indian...
India has managed to keep its public finance in control and focus on capex led growth. That has ensured that India managed to stay afloat during the storm and now that the storm has subsided, India is on its way to race at higher knots.
This video is an update on the latest global macro developments
India's FY24 Q2 GVA/ GDP Data has just been published and it is higher than estimates.
This video analyses the data and in an update to the earlier idea of impact of bond yields on equities.
As the US Inflation numbers came soft, all doubts about Fed hiking rates in December were gone. That led to all currencies strengthening against the $. US Yields colled off, Dollar Index came down and US Equities soared.
Indian markets also joined the party. The Rupee made strong gains making new multi week highs. G Sec Yields came off highs and Sensex and Nifty...
Rupee made a new low against the greenback on Fri 10 Nov 2023.
Falling Rupee means higher inflation, higher yields, lower liquidity and hence capping of equities.
This is what i discuss in this update
As US Yields cool off a tad bit, it results into Dollar index cooling and Rupee strengthening. Our Forex Reserves increased, our yields fell and our benchmark equity indices soared. India's maiden 50 year bond issue was oversubscribed and that shows how much interest and confidence there is about India over the coming few decades.
India's largest Festival season...
As the FED did not tinker with rates, Indian equity markets saw a gap up opening. This was probably on the hope tha FII selling will subside and the continuous fall which we were witnessing may pause/ stop.
India's largest festival - Diwali - is on, followed by the Union Budget coming in early 2024 and soon after that the central elections would be...
Rising US Yields are attracting liquidity from all assets. Also, in the domestic markets the yield curve has become flat.
From being normal sloping during height of Covid to flat today; the shape and level of the yield curve have repercussions on investors.
This video examines the liquidity situation globally as well as locally and tracks leading indicators to...
Bond Yields in India are anchored at 7% whereas in US the curve is inverted and interest rates are going to be 'higher for longer'.
Inspite of this Rupee is not getting hammerred, due to huge forex reserves and even the Indian stock market is fairly resilient, thanks to deluge of local money.
So going forward, a long term investor is likely to benefit if he/ she...
Every time the yield curve becomes flat or inverted, i.e. the gap between short-term and long-term rates becomes close to zero or negative, it has signaled a fall in yields over the next few months. While one can not be sure as the world economy is in a state of flux, history tells us that probability is high.
Also, one can notice that every time, the rates are...
