Fall is commodity is doneCRB Index 273.84
Elliott- The rally from the lows is an impulse wave on the 3day charts. I mistook it for corrective on the weekly charts. So the correction is over.
RSI- Stock making higher lows and a + divergence is an indication of reversal.
Trendline- The break of the trendline will be a confirmation. On the RSI the trendline has already been broken.
Conclusion - This uptrend here mean all is well. the deflation threat is not high. Hence the rate cuts in the future is not likely to happen. The mkt has discounted the rate cut in the 18th Sep. So time to buy good stocks available at a discount.
TRJEFFCRB trade ideas
CRB Index about to go NorthCRB Index CMP 294
This is a basket of commodities. Very imp Index as its movement is related to the Dollar. If we look at the charts this Index is showing tremendous strength. Now what strength here means is weakness for the dollar in the near future. And weakness for the dollar is good for the emerging mkt equity market.
One more very imp point is inflation. Commodity prices rising is also an indication that inflation will go North in the near future. In that scenario reducing interest rates by Fed will further fuel inflation. Hence to me the Fed may not reduce the Interest rates in Sep as is being expected. And this will be positive for the mkt.
CRB Index set to go NorthCRB Index CMP 294
This is a basket of commodities. Very imp Index as its movement is related to the Dollar. If we look at the charts this Index is showing tremendous strength. Now what strength here means is weakness for the dollar in the near future. And weakness for the dollar is good for the emerging mkt equity market.
One more very imp point is inflation. Commodity prices rising is also an indication that inflation will go North in the near future. In that scenario reducing interest rates by Fed will further fuel inflation. Hence to me the Fed may not reduce the Interest rates in Sep as is being expected. And this will be positive for the mkt.