TREND -POSITIVE
PRESENT ZONE-Above Demand zone 1.
FORECAST -As per ZONE,
If Demand zone 1 not broken will target the gaps at 4.15 & 4.22.
My take
must touch the above gaps.and reverse back.
TREND - NUETRAL .because now at down and up TL juction.
PRESENT ZONE- At DEMAND ZONE 1.
FORECAST -As per ZONE once downward TL crosses and closes above At DEMAND ZONE 1 will target SUPPLY ZONE 1 at 4.643.
If not will target DEMAND ZONE 2
MY TAKE - will target 4.643 the SUPPLY ZONE 1.
But any news flow may change this scenoria.
IMPORTANCE OF US 10 YEAR BOND...
We are at the bottom end of the 2-4 channel at 4.48% on the 10-year note yields so it may be early to say that the trend has changed even as we are in the final long-term 5th wave which is the final leg of this bull run for bond yields.
the fall started from 15% in Oct' 1981 until 0.533% in Jul 2020 has formed a parallel channel.
Though the rise has been sharp and with very little consolidation.
However it may start consolidating from 6-8%
retracement from that may not be much, however time correction is needed as bond yield has increase too much in little time.
2024 march April started a huge recession in equity market according to bond market when 10 year bond yields and 2 year bond yields curve at base line o it men's recession this economy indicator pridict right pridition back 40 year . Look at the example the greatest tech burst crash in 2000 and subprime mortgage crash 2008 and pendmic crash 2020 . This economy...
A truncated 5th wave maybe developing in the US 10-year bond yields as the pattern that has developed is an expanding triangle near a double top. Positioning shows the largest short position in US bonds net across categories. The setup is for a short covering rally in bond markets to be triggered by some event along with inflation data. This is not a time to be...
Slope is indicating more upside for US10Y in coming 6-9 months. Probability of crossing 4.5 is high but it can also attempt for 5 by July 2024. Minor pullback to 3.75 can happen.
Disc: It's not an investment advise to buy or sell.
US 10tr bond yield bounced from support at 3.24% & also from 200 EMA.
Hope this is a small bounce, if it goes to 4% level then it will be bad for equity markets.
Bond yield looks to have bottomed out at 1.12. Daily close abv 1.38 will start bullish HHHL structure. In such scenario , price may adance to 2.02 (minimum) on conservative slope and 2.34 - 2.60 on steep slope.
Minimum deadline as of now is 22nd Jan but if it attempts for 2.60 then deadline could extend to May 2022.
The spread between the 10-year US and German government bond yields has dropped below a macro bullish trendline, characterizing the widening since 2008.
In other words, the market says the era of US rates being higher than German rates is passe! And therefore, holding EUR shorts is risky.
US10Y could be in at its peak in current wave cycle to stary a ABC correction.
RSI on daily is also showing divergence indicating topping out sign. The correction in US10 will be good for equities.
View will be invalid if the high 4.123 is broken and wave 5 might get extended.
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