I'll use my monthly view post to take weekly analysis forward
There are interesting things to observe.
1. NIFTY has crossed previous intermediate high of 9889.05 of April last week. This makes it in firmly uptrend.
2. NIFTY is in uptrend on daily and weekly trend.
3. It is now...
My Observations on higher level time frames
1. In my monthly view, I had said " The bounce we see after March 27 bottom is likely to fail". This got underlined when NIFTY fall below the longer term trend line from 2009.
2. The monthly range is contracting. NIFTY is unlikely form a large candle for May.
3. May is likely to end negative.
My Observations on...
NSE:NIFTY is making overlapping moves. Idea is to stay patient and wait for breakout.
From current price action, NIFTY is all set to break out of 9400 tomorrow. I have sold calls, which will be in loss. But considering the market is consolidating, I am willing to take the risk of keeping those calls.
NSE:NIFTY opened gap up today. But it could not keep above last high of 9340 for the day. So this is still consolidation range. Till it breaks out this range , it may be safe to hold these positions. Now, because of sold puts, I have high risk of gap down opening. But from price action for last few days, I'm carrying these positions.
As discussed in weekly...
Sterlite Technologies is looking good for short term. The stock has not fallen after March 13. It is also showing momentum for last 4 trading sessions.
Risk reward is not attractive. Still this trade can be entered in the range of 73 - 80.
Today was very tight consolidation day. NIFTY moved around 9000.
1. This was mostly expected as some markets are closed and many markets coming from long weekend.
2. Looking at the initial selling , I sold CALLs and then squared of for marginal profit.
These kind of days are difficult to trade, but I was lucky to manage small profit.
Below is my view for NIFTY for coming week
1. April 14 : Trading Holiday
2. April 13 : Lock down extension news
3. There could be some news on stimulus package, but I think it is not going to be enough to create sudden jump on the upside.
4. But with current momentum NIFTY could well go up first 9400 - 9600.
5. Hence intraday positions should be on the long...
Good Day Today for me. Mostly traded as per plan.
NIFTY is still in the large range of 8050 to 9150. But now, the breakout may have happened above 9050. Idea was to ride 8500 and 9200 OTM options. Then when NIFTY consolidated above 9000, I sold credit spread, which again turned out well as NIFTY expired above 9000.
Nifty Started with 2% selling on Open. Then it formed a range of 8100 and 8160, which was broken on the upside. But this breakout did not hold. Then later this range was broken on the other side below.
Overall, difficult day to day trade.
Expiry Day Today.
Global markets mostly down. I expected NIFTY to have ranged day because right from the start VIX was falling. I made mistake of committing to PUT sell on the lower end of range too quickly.
From the start, there were indications that NIFTY is going to have up day
SGX NIFTY and Asian Markets and DJI all up.
Then the first gap up got sold into. It was fast movement towards support. Idea was to keep buying the breakouts with limiting the risk with OTM Puts.
Trading trapped shorts
1. After decent uptrend, the first lower low is not actually shorting opportunity.
2. Second short could have been avoided if waiting for trend line break is confirmed on shorter time frames.
Nifty initially tried to fill the gap. This attempt was failed.
Then the momentum was reversed on the downside. The 8900 Call was sold at 145 Rs for risk of 2000 Rs.
The call was later covered during the day.
Before Market opens
1. US Markets were up 6%
2. All Asian markets up
3. First Large Gap up above resistance and previous high.
This was a chance trade with high risk. Because if this gap holds during the day, then it becomes turning point for the market as it eats up many shorts aggressively.
Closed the trade with loss as the gap did not hold.
DOW is range bound but bullish. Asian Markets are mildly negative.
Mostly expectation is to have consolidation day.
Action : Wait to see how NIFTY is ranging in the first 30 minutes to 1 hr. SGX Nifty is mildly down.
When NIFTY broke above 8500 in first 30 Mins, then sold PUT @69 and then covered it before FM's conference.