PenAndPencil

PenAndPencil

And I was wrong again. I was so wrong that tried to introspect. I thought that maybe the covid vaccine news trumped all analysis and market sprung. But then correct technical analysis should be able to front-run the fundamental news. Not the other way round. I checked online and seems that a lot of people got it wrong. But then that also does not rectify my...

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I was absolutely incorrect last week. I thought the market would decline. It didn't. I thought the market would be very volatile. It wasn't. The mistake last week was prematurely calling the end of the july-started rally (and the end of the powerful third wave of the mid-June started rally). Turns out that the wave 5 of the july-started rally had more juice left....

PenAndPencil

The coming week is a very very volatile week. There is the Bihar election, London and Paris have declared a lockdown and there is the US elections. If you have faint at heart, I recommend that you stay out of market next week. The last two trades have been profitable and you can choose to enjoy that. I am also a little faint at heart, so maybe we can try buying...

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The fourth wave in the 15 minute timeframe last week looked like a flat. It was simple and shallow. The second wave was complex but also shallow. That violates the principal of alternation. Could it be that it was a descending diagonal so what we saw was only the first wave. Time will tell. To me the market now looks poised to decline further. Long Term: We...

PenAndPencil Updated 

Last week was a textbook fifth wave. To me it looks like the fifth wave is coming to a conclusion. Lets study it in a bit more detail. Long Term: We have reached the 2.618 times extension of the third wave of the trend that started in March. That means that a correction is upon us. I mean the market would have to be exceptionally bullish to keep rallying to a...

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So Donald Trump caught covid and US futures market tanked! And then rose almost at the same rate. We are almost where we were. The chart shape in India would not capture that see-saw as the entire movement happened on 2nd Oct, Gandhi Jayanti when markets were closed. For us, we are in the fifth and final up wave of the rally that started end-June. Long Term: ...

PenAndPencil Updated 

I would have gloated that how prescient I was. But actually there is something wrong with my wave counts which I can't put a finger on as yet. Time will tell what exactly is wrong. As long as we are broadly in profit overall, we will use this count. Long Term: I think the short term correction is over. This means that the rally that started around end-June is...

PenAndPencil Updated 

So the markets started falling as projected last week. I detail below my projections for next week. Long Term: The uptrend is intact. The fall in the market is the standard correction after any rally. This particular rally had started in early August. We are presently in time of closure of a number of rallies. The early Aug rally was a part of another rally...

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This was a momentous week. The third wave of many levels seem to have met. The decline has started (as was projected last week :-D). You found that here first. In my opinion this decline is a natural short term correction and is a sign of an uptrend. Long Term : The long term trend is up. We are significantly closer to pre-covid highs. That would be reached. But...

PenAndPencil Updated 

And the markets crossed the 78.6% level in style! The upswing after covid is a trend. Not a correction. A proper trend. Long Term: In long term, the fact that the rebound was a trend is established and the NIFTY breached the 78.6% level of the decline in March. That is bullish. Medium Term: In the medium term, we are actually close to the medium term maxima...

PenAndPencil Updated 

What a week! Market stayed steady for almost the entire week and then had a sharp correction during the ending hours of Friday. Our position, however, is still intact. Long Term: In the long term, it is becoming a little worrying that for two consecutive weeks, the market has failed to breach the 78.6% correction from the March decline. It is a wait and watch...

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What I had thought as the top of the third way turned out to be only half of the actual third wave. Third wave was extended! And I could not get an entry. While, again, the overall idea held, I could not get an entry. Entry only at market going forward. Long Term: In the long term, the key observation is that NIFTY seems to have broken 1.618 levels from Wave 2....

PenAndPencil Updated 

The market last week went down to 10,600 levels but did not reach 10,500. We did not get an entry. While the broad idea held, the entry could not be made. Need to sharpen levels further. Long Term : In the long term, we seem to be in the 5th wave. This should take the market to around 12,600 - 13,800 levels. Planning to track this in more detail once we are...

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The market opened last monday at the position where target price itself was. And then did not move much. So we would not have been able to get entry into the market. So let's study what happened in the market. Long Term: The nagging worry that the present rally could just be a correction after March's sharp drop seems to be reducing as the market closed...

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This week is very very important. It is almost as if the market closed last week at a cliffhanger. Divergences in oscillating indicators have started to show up indicating a possible end of rally. A sustainable close reasonably above 10,500 would mean that the bullish market we have been seeing for the past few months is not just a correction to the sharp decline...

PenAndPencil

I might be right. I might be wrong. I am always learning. Use at your own risk.