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Is wave 4 done at a little more than 23.6% retracement? Wave four is a flat and wave 2 was zig-zag retracing 61.8%, so we have alternation. Nvidia is now at the 20-week average so that is an ideal support as well which held in wave 2 too. Wave 5 should follow wave 4. 5=1 then the level is at 300 which should coincide with the top end of the channel. A rising...

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The five up, three down structure is key to trend analysis when it comes to Elliott wave analysis. Using wave counts in combination with sentiment can tell you if markets have reached an extreme and completed a structure. In this case, if wave c is done, do we have any short-term sentiment indicators that are oversold in conjunction with this? The Daily Swing is a...

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This is not the first time since March 2023 that the NIfty Midcap 100 index bottomed near the 20dma. It is doing so again today. Next time we may or may not be so lucky but this is what has been happening. The two day dip means that the RSI at 60-65 is not oversold anymore on daily charts. Weekly charts may still be above 70 for a while.

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A truncated 5th wave maybe developing in the US 10-year bond yields as the pattern that has developed is an expanding triangle near a double top. Positioning shows the largest short position in US bonds net across categories. The setup is for a short covering rally in bond markets to be triggered by some event along with inflation data. This is not a time to be...

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USDINR - should have broken out this time right? Every time it has spiked up recently to near the 83 level, everyone is pounding the table. But the likes of me waiting with bated breath. I am waiting because I have been trying to anticipate a top here, but once again, for the nth time, we have a failure to move past the upper trendline of the triangle. A day...

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The dollar index ahead of FED decision day is at the 20dma and has retraced the recent losses from incoming data around weak inflation. In other words, Dxy is up only on fear that the fed will raise rates, but the data suggests that they should not. At a critical resistance, the dxy may be close to resuming its downward course. The dollar should head lower from here.

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Five waves up in Elliott Wave analysis indicate trend and direction. So when we see a five-wave move in a particular direction, that is the trend. Following that, three waves down is where the correction ends, and we anticipate another five waves up. On this chart, Nifty also fell to the 61.8% retracement mark in the a-b-c pullback making the setup ideal for the bulls.

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Rotation between stocks and sectors is a killer, making choosing stocks inside an ongoing rally difficult. What moves today gets killed tomorrow without a similar impact on the underlying index. This pain has no resolution but quick identification of failure and booking profits. But the index has a strong setup so far, holding support levels, falling in small...

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As Nifty broke the Dec low of 17774 intraday the inter-market divergence between Nifty and the Nifty Midcap 100 index became more blatant. The divergence is a bullish divergence when one index makes a new low unconfirmed by the other. It remains to see how this will unfold.

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Classic dow theory states that a new low in one index not confirmed by others indicates a potential trend reversal on cards. Nonconfirmation amounts to inter-market divergences that are bullish or bearish. In this situation, the new low in bank nifty today over the last few days is not confirmed by the Nifty. Even more, the outperformance of the Midcap 100 index...

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inter-market analysis can be tricky but even as the USDINR hit a new high yesterday, the last two days bounce on hourly charts is a-b-c, what that means is that it is not a new move but the end of something. If USDINR closes down today after that it would add weight to a positive near-term outlook for the Nifty given the historical inverse correlation between...

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The lead lag between the currency pair and Nifty can give lead indications of a trend change in the offing. A new high in USDINR in Oct not confirmed by a new low in Nifty was a bullish indication, but this week a new high in Nifty not confirmed by a new low in USDINR is a bearish indication.

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Nifty is following the classic Dow theory definition of an up trend, a series of higher highs and lows and till that is violated why bother. Day to day volatility because of US stock indices going up or down on data like Consumer confidence or GDP can be confusing but a technical setup is simpler to follow. So far the Nifty is showing relative resilience despite...

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Nifty is making lower lows and highs as the trend unfolds and is far from over from an elliott wave perspective. A lot of people are still bullish but there is no panic in the market as seen by the selling volumes that are absent. There is no selling climax.

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In search of the next bottom, we look for five-wave declines to complete. Prices have been falling inside a channel and a breakout would put us in the price territory of the previous ivth wave near 16404 to the gap zone near 16484. But what if we do not breakout and keep falling below 16000 we could see a free fall with multiple extensions on the downside....

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Starting December banking stocks are leading from the front, and there is a change in trend. Banks surpassed yesterdays high ahead of Nifty and the Rohits Momentum on hourly had a clear buy signal that did not whipsaw like it did on Nifty. Banks should continue to outperform the Nifty in the days weeks ahead and for 2022 as a whole in my view.

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Nifty Hourly charts and the Rohits Momentum now share a positive bullish divergence and one more buy signal afterward. Minor wave ii? Everytime you do not get a V shaped recovery but price action is a process that you have to follow with all the arsenals you have in Technical Analysis.

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The hourly Rohits momentum indicator gave abuy signal that failed and flipped back to sell, which allows for risk management by traders but that does not change the Elliott Wave view that we are in wave II. That requires deeper thinking and observations. The only alternate is wave 5 was truncated and the recent top ended an 18-month bull phase. Time will tell...