sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank back to where it was a month ago, negative for the year so far. Optically nothing much has changed, we printed out of the box GDP number, higher GST collections, robust SIP numbers. One cannot blame the PSU pack as their weightage is not that great. Broader profit taking can be the culprit. With inflation assumed to be slowing down, the real print...

sreebhashyam

It is nearly a month of absence from writing, markets continue to do what the charts dictate. The divergence that continued to appear in various spaces finally started yielding, we printed the evening star (marked by the arrow). We are almost flat for the year save 300 points on the nifty, not absorbing the nominal returns forget about the costs of buying. The...

sreebhashyam

It starts with dismay, overnight unwinding continues, NIFTY BANK starts to ascent, aided by Energy, held by the Metals. MSCI rejig has very minor impact on very selective spaces. It looked as if all is well at the close. Two indexes that needs the narrative to move on is VIX, India VIX it hit high and then closed again around 16, this one is not tradable. CBOE...

sreebhashyam

FED Rate cut hopes move down to 50%, an equal chance of 50/50, a clear coin toss! Welcome to the world of financial forecasting. Alan Greenspan famously remarked, "Currency Forecasting is a Coin Toss" The world predicted war, but who in the world predicted war between Pakistan and Iran. Proxies galore, proxies are the way to look for the leaders' footsteps....

sreebhashyam

In the midst of all drama, Oracle Financial Services post 28% rise in a single day. Three things were all over, a. Oracle one day performance, b. Markets meme about Ram Temple c. Persist with HDFC in the long term it is the best place to be. One word to sum, prayers or persistence. 10,000 attempts or 10,000 iterations. Whether it is prayer or punt, focus is...

sreebhashyam

It is easy to ink a story, then endure as an actor (be it trader or investor). Red pill dispenser, a case of choice between remaining in a state of blissful ignorance (blue) or accepting a painful reality (red). Hopes don't build a home, when trust is at stake. The darling of the banking, which "Excel"led quite a century plus, remains the hurt burn of the...

sreebhashyam

It is the story of the retail, recall the famous statement of FM, I don't worry on FII leaving, I have retail to support. Since Covid times, the engagement of the trader in the guise of investor or investor in the guise of trader has multiplied. The sad part is the holding period has shrunk. No one knows what is right or wrong. In hindsight all looks rosy....

sreebhashyam

Bulls carry the Ouch, bears the fitch. Clearly the new "ITC" in town is the HDFC. You like HDFC, but HDFC is not liking you. You can count on it, but it won't count on you. Its time is yet to come, but for sure it will come! Results come, clues from ADR suggests a fall. The fall if any, will frustrate the new buyers. Simply there are many places than this one...

sreebhashyam

One of the pitfalls of not enduring the history or contemporary socio-economic conditions is the dependency on what one believes it worked. Blame it on recency bias. Hardly three weeks back, the who's who of the Financial World pushed the rinse repeat narrative, dollar fall, larger rate cuts, higher equity and no recession. They all looked casual in the first...

sreebhashyam

RBI continues to monitor various Risk Related measures, it is an ongoing process, not an alarm, but a watch. More particularly in the NBFC space. We hear bank's reducing the unused credit card limits as they carry Risk Weight. They throw the depth to which Risk is measured. Not an alarm on the net level. The head and shoulder pattern drawn here is not suggest...

sreebhashyam

Animal spirits leads the life one of adventure and evolution. The beast in the mind. Tesla unveils first time on X, the Beast. While we talk of the beast, debate on inflation vs deflation will rage on. Enough space to start a debate. China continues to obey gravity and chooses the Earth in term of anything but optimistic projections. Japan 2 Y goes back to...

sreebhashyam

World Economic Forum 2024 begins today, and the message is "Rebuilding Trust". In a world of conflict be it territory or the resources or the immigration, trust is the catch word. Banking symbolises trust and thus the rebuilding of trust. From Technical perspective, the price action is one of rebuilding the recent gains from 44500 to 48500 in the form of...

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Bulls gets their wings, broke the flag, push fast forward. One-way street lead by the IT heavy weight, as if there is no tomorrow. The door is shut for the bears. Investors are in blind pilot mode, 2 X in two weeks not 20% IRR in 20 Years is the expectation. Jan fear's recede, FOMO succeeds. FAA recognises, and soon you will have blind pilots manning the...

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Recall frenzy of last quarter in the rate cut expectations, we are hardly two weeks into it, there are cuts in chorus about possible Central Bank actions. The march to March meeting is still a door open and shut. Some banks already voice, it is overdone. Swaps indicate steeper curve. Internals of inflation report suggest services strong. Energy creeping up....

sreebhashyam

Recall frenzy of last quarter in the rate cut expectations, we are hardly two weeks into it, there are cuts in chorus about possible Central Bank actions. The march to March meeting is still a door open and shut. Some banks already voice, it is overdone. Swaps indicate steeper curve. Internals of inflation report suggest services strong. Energy creeping up....

sreebhashyam

There is a SEC then there is SEBI. Compromise of X in Crypto ETF, then a U turn to allow, all over the space, up down and flat. If you are worried about equity volatility you have no idea what volatility is in the first place. Blackrock stops redemptions (various reasons sighted), while Vanguard refuses to take any buy orders. One space, two stalwarts, tiny...

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Mandir, Modi, Maldives, Mumkin, New Moon, then comes the Friday the 13th. What is important is glean is the Money Supply M3 which stood at 10.9% relatively lower than previous but near 1 per centage points. It is projected to grow towards 250000 from 240000 in 2025. Easy financial conditions across the globe despite the series of rate cut continue to worry the...

sreebhashyam

Bears dominate, dominate as they should. Vibrant Gujarat brings rally in the two richest Indian companies both vying for the honours. Bears could not hold the grip, Reliance meets the Lakshmana Rekha and pulls many along with it. Optically bearish, optimistically bullish remains one word to describe. Nikki punches further up, Dow closes teasingly higher,...