CAB typically leads IP by 8 months per American Chemistry Council
Comment:
Chemical activity started to decline indicating weakening economy in the next months
WASHINGTON (January 22, 2019) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), posted a 0.3 percent decline in January on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This marks the barometer’s third consecutive month-over-month drop and suggests a slower rate of U.S. economic growth. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer is up 0.8 percent (3MMA), a pronounced slowdown in the pace of growth as compared with late last year.
“The CAB continues to signal gains in U.S. commercial and industrial activity through mid-2019, but at a much slower pace as growth (as measured by year-earlier comparisons) has turned over,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “Despite three straight months of decline in the barometer, the cumulative decline is 1.0 percent – well below the 3.0 percent that would signal negative growth in the U.S. economy.”
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WASHINGTON (January 22, 2019) – The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), posted a 0.3 percent decline in January on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This marks the barometer’s third consecutive month-over-month drop and suggests a slower rate of U.S. economic growth. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer is up 0.8 percent (3MMA), a pronounced slowdown in the pace of growth as compared with late last year.
“The CAB continues to signal gains in U.S. commercial and industrial activity through mid-2019, but at a much slower pace as growth (as measured by year-earlier comparisons) has turned over,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “Despite three straight months of decline in the barometer, the cumulative decline is 1.0 percent – well below the 3.0 percent that would signal negative growth in the U.S. economy.”
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