Combining Time cycle+Channel+Candle-stick
Updated
I tried putting Elliot wave label on Asian paint daily,weekly and monthly chart and couldn't come to any logical conclusion,as the uptrend didnt followed any fib rule's neither did any major swing have an internal structure similar to elliot pattern cumulatively which could make an elliot pattern.
Never the less i have shown channel on the monthly chart which seems to be acting as good support and rasistance and as an investor who likes safety and decent return and who does research on it's own look's for good entry point where he can invest his money.
This can be achieved by plotting simple channel's across the chart connecting bottom's with bottoms and top;s with tops.Add to it i have tried plotting time cycle with 58 month period and it has also captured low's on most of the occassion.
Price moving near upper channel and lossing momentum has resulted in minor corrections and an investor should wait for prices to come near channel support levels for entering into a stock.Here i have shown several top's where prices were nearing upper channel line and has given bearish reversal candle stick pattern near upper channel line signifying weakness in near future.
observe when in the candle next to reversal candle low's of reversal candle is breached a meaning full correction has given good opportunity to investor enter into a stock,also top's are formed during the first 60-70% time of the cycle(not every time but in general) and we are already in that time zone of current cycle.
To sum up,price have reversed from upper channel line and has formed grave stone doji top reversal pattern in last month and in this month we are seeing follow through selling when we breached previous month's candle's low along with time cycle approaching top forming time zone hence long positions should have a definate stop-loss depending upon one's risk apetite as we are seeing top formation characteristics on monthly charts.
Fresh long's is not advisable at this point of time,on the downside level of 2250 remains crucial support.If in coming 4 months we get close below 2250 then we can assume that we have formed a significant top at 3500 level which would not be breached easily and would take significant time to overcome.
Disclaimer:I am posting this analysis just for my future reference purpose,positions should not be build or exited on the basis of this analysis.
Never the less i have shown channel on the monthly chart which seems to be acting as good support and rasistance and as an investor who likes safety and decent return and who does research on it's own look's for good entry point where he can invest his money.
This can be achieved by plotting simple channel's across the chart connecting bottom's with bottoms and top;s with tops.Add to it i have tried plotting time cycle with 58 month period and it has also captured low's on most of the occassion.
Price moving near upper channel and lossing momentum has resulted in minor corrections and an investor should wait for prices to come near channel support levels for entering into a stock.Here i have shown several top's where prices were nearing upper channel line and has given bearish reversal candle stick pattern near upper channel line signifying weakness in near future.
observe when in the candle next to reversal candle low's of reversal candle is breached a meaning full correction has given good opportunity to investor enter into a stock,also top's are formed during the first 60-70% time of the cycle(not every time but in general) and we are already in that time zone of current cycle.
To sum up,price have reversed from upper channel line and has formed grave stone doji top reversal pattern in last month and in this month we are seeing follow through selling when we breached previous month's candle's low along with time cycle approaching top forming time zone hence long positions should have a definate stop-loss depending upon one's risk apetite as we are seeing top formation characteristics on monthly charts.
Fresh long's is not advisable at this point of time,on the downside level of 2250 remains crucial support.If in coming 4 months we get close below 2250 then we can assume that we have formed a significant top at 3500 level which would not be breached easily and would take significant time to overcome.
Disclaimer:I am posting this analysis just for my future reference purpose,positions should not be build or exited on the basis of this analysis.
Note
On hourly chart Asian paint seems to be following 83 hours cycle,low posted near this cycle perio acts as support for next cycle and we have seen rally in the next cycle.Recently this cycle period low was due on 01-12-2021.we saw stock going up marginally after which it failed to sustain those gain stock breached that cycle period low 3125. Currently stock is trading in a down slopping channel and reversed exactly near the upper channel line and breached cycle low of last cycle.On daily chart stock has managed to close below previous days low indicating short term reversal and hence one can short this stock on monday if price comes at 3134(9 hour ema) with a hourly closing stop-loss of 3200 on the upside and a target of 2920.
Disclaimer:Position should not be solely build or exited on the basis of this analysis.Posting this just for my future reference.
Disclaimer
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