Brent Crude Oil - Target US$ 93

Dec 8, 2023

Brent Sweet Crude completed primary wave 4 with satisfactory completion of pattern, down to the miniscule degree, yesterday. The rebound since then, appears to be the impulse of primary wave 5, though its too early stage to conclude whether it would be impulse or diagonal. Even if wave 4 were to continue into double correction, there should be retracement back to $84-86 to achieve 50% retracement back forming X to pave way for double threes. However, given the primary 1 to 3 structure and pattern, previous cycles' internal characteristics, it seems less probable that this primary wave 4 would take a double or triple three route.

In either condition, whether the current upswing is impulse of wave 5 of primary degree, or X of double correction, $84 is the first target, thereafter $93+.

Opportune time to open long, when the world is offloading stocks, that's the time to buy. I am adding fresh long to my existing long position (though I am bit late, yesterday on completion of pattern I was convinced, but wasted time in reassurance through many iterations).

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Dec 9, 2023

Note

Also to be noted that oil normally follows a 3 wave structure, as observed in past, the current bearish movement, however went on to achieve five wave structure in its wave C, perhaps the earlier waves failed to achieve adequate retracement. This fact, added with others mentioned above, gives me confidence that the bearish movement has ended and bulls should emerge on horizon now.

Dec 12, 2023

Note

Now that with today's deep fall, breaching below the end of wave (v), upwards impulse is negated. The current wave labeling will have to be modified such that the current wave becomes wave 3 of the fall, and much deeper retracement should be expected. Detailed writeup to follow after observation and analysis of current changes.

Dec 14, 2023

Trade closed: stop reached

Dec 20, 2023

Note

Classic market surprise, goes on towards target after eating your stop loss out.