Bitcoin goes down soon. Analyze 1M timeframe

Hello everyone! Today i want to talking about 1 Month timeframe. If you look at previous bearish cycle you'll see that downtrend had 4 of confirmation points before change. I think, today's maximum we had see it was last of high point which touched downtrend line. I have open short position from $8700 because I see on chart, that was last bulls try for change trend. My target is $7600, then i will open long position.

Last time we had 13 month of downtrend, next cycle was 8 month, next cycle will be 3-4 month?