Bitcoin to $4000+

Aug 4, 2017

Impulse Wave 1 appears to be complete. Wave 2 is 50% of Wave 1, so likely it is also complete. Bitcoin seems to respect the upper tend line boundary at several points so it seems unlikely Wave 3 will go far beyond 1.618 of Wave 1. If the waves hold to Fibonacci ratios, BTC should hit $4,000 and quite possibly $4,400. Set Stop Loss below Wave 2 bottom. If price falls below Wave 2, then the wave count is invalid.

Aug 10, 2017

Note

Some possible subdivisions for Wave 3

Aug 12, 2017

Note

First target reached. It seems improbable to me that it will go much higher, it's already bounced off the upper boundary trend line once. It could go higher, but it seems more likely that soon the wave 4 retracement will start.

This could be a good time to take profit, depending on strategy. At the very least the stop loss should be raised to remove risk and lock in some profit.

Aug 13, 2017

Note

After that one bounce, price went right through the upper boundary trend line without much hesitation. When I tried to figure out where I went wrong, I realized that I had placed wave 3 incorrectly. That also meant the sub-waves were incorrect, even though they seemed to fit.

If Wave 3 is 1.618 of Wave 1, but starts from the bottom of Wave 2 it looks quite a bit different. If Wave 3 blows past $4400, it could mean it's going all the way to $5500. Trailing stops seems like a good idea until we see how high it goes.

Aug 13, 2017

Note

The end of Wave 3 or the end of sub-wave iii? Either scenario seems likely for a a retracement down to the $3400 area. Or is Bitcoin just taking a rest on its way up?

Aug 14, 2017

Note

After a brief rest, Bitcoin keeps climbing. If I have correctly identified Wave iv, it was very short. The target zone for Wave v is coming up. Will Bitcoin start a retracement soon or will it just keep on going?

Aug 15, 2017

Note

$4400 Target hit. Expected a retracement to start soon but it seems like it wants to keep climbing. I tightened up my stop quite a bit.

Aug 22, 2017

Note

I was stopped out at $4300. I've been watching the retracement ever since, looking to get back in for Wave 5. Price touched my target zone for Wave 4, but I don't think the retracement is done. Until it makes a definitive move above the upper boundary trend line, I think it's still on the way down.

Sep 7, 2017

Trade closed: target reached