BTCUSD - ABCDE in progress?

Jul 12, 2019

Last night I was debating whether to long or short bitcoin around 11200, at that point it really was a coin flip. Since we have recovered 0.236 of the last swing (B-C) and that level has acted as support on both the 1 hour and 4 hour time frame I'm happy to go long here with caution.

I was hoping to see a previous gartley play out (

), the upside target was hit (eventually) but I feel this may now be an ABCDE correction since the pull back seems to be calming down and flattening out.

I've added notes where I'd expect false breaks to happen. My upside target is still around $16,400 (coin base prices - see previous chart, this chart is bitfinex)

Jul 14, 2019

Note

The equal measured move from (B) to (C) was too quick and I wasn't paying attention to the moving averages. Idea still validated, re-drawn for clarity.

Jul 14, 2019

Note

Argh - old long position (stopped out long ago) was still there. here's a cleaner update!

Jul 16, 2019

Note

A more acute angle for the bottom rail than I was expecting but here we are, this bounce from (C) has recovered more 50% of the daily open close of yesterday so that's a good bullish sign and we've passed the 0.236 retrace of the (B)-(C) down swing so more upside is likely here, so far the ABCDE correction is still valid.